3:09am
No intraday commentary today, i’m in miami on vacation, but I will be back next week. Good luck trading!
Monday, March 09, 2009
8:00am Earnings Before the Open: AOB, AVD, CMN, ENG, ORBT, RODM.
10:00am TAF auction
Credit Suisse Semis & Communications Equipment Conference.
Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference.
Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference.
Gartner Business Intelligence Summit.
NATI business update.
TXN mid-quarter update.
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: AVAV, BRNC, CASY, JRJC, CMTL, DIVX, HIL, FACE, RSCR.
Tough getting in to post. Made $$$$ on those PALM puts. In at .35. Out at .55. Hope someone joined me. Closed PBR for a .05 gain. Bought some EGO calls. Time for the miners to rally. Have a good night.
Still wave 1?
i got out at 676 earlier when it hit. but the 3 wave down intraday could’ve ended at 672.88 area which is the 78 retrace.
made a small profit from 666-676, which isn’t ideal, but not bad.
this area is still very dangerous. don’t think i’ll hold anything overnight.
i got out at 676 earlier when it hit. but the 3 wave down intraday could’ve ended at 672.88 area which is the 78 retrace.
made a small profit from 666-676, which isn’t ideal, but not bad.
this area is still very dangerous. don’t think i’ll hold anything overnight.
i got out at 676 earlier when it hit. but the 3 wave down intraday could’ve ended at 672.88 area which is the 78 retrace.
made a small profit from 666-676, which isn’t ideal, but not bad.
this area is still very dangerous. don’t think i’ll hold anything overnight.
i got out at 676 earlier when it hit. but the 3 wave down intraday could’ve ended at 672.88 area which is the 78 retrace.
made a small profit from 666-676, which isn’t ideal, but not bad.
this area is still very dangerous. don’t think i’ll hold anything overnight.
i got out at 676 earlier when it hit. but the 3 wave down intraday could’ve ended at 672.88 area which is the 78 retrace.
made a small profit from 666-676, which isn’t ideal, but not bad.
this area is still very dangerous. don’t think i’ll hold anything overnight.
APOL…. advanced on light volume
doubled my MAY 60 put position.
hope everyone is enjoying the FLAT 4 so far. boring…. im expecting more of this in the coming days. then either a pop and drop into opex or the other way around. anyones guess.
if we drop pre opex im covering some puts and taking some conservative calls. if we pop pre-opex im selling some calls. if we stay flat from here into opex week… im going to sleep
FL,
ive really loaded up short this one in the $8.90 range. 3 orders today.
Got some APR 7.50 puts at .40. Giddy Up! What’s with the site today?
Anyone holding positions overnight?
SKF sure looks toppy here. 6 straight UP days – reminds me NOV and OCT highs.
Got 1 put just in case. We should turn any moment now… IMO.
Hey Iceman what strike price put did you take and what expiration?
Added more FAS. Holding 10,000 shares. Call me a glutton for punishment.
Woo, anything positive about saving 676 on the S&P?
Someone needs to change the time on the messages.
Are the problems with this site over????
Are the problems with this site over????
Idan, GS did not hold (76), SPY did not hold (68.63), VIX is up. Any thoughts?
GS broke 76 early in the morning, even though it did not stay up above 77, this means that GS managed to retrace more than 50%. Todays action could be looked at as bearish, but it defers from the other bearish days. We made no new lows today, and we seemed to continue and form an inverse head and shoulders on the SPY. The move lower was on low volume as well, so we have to continue to analyze the charts tomorrow.
I assume by “no new lows” you mean intraday. Some of us are schooled to believe that closing lows matter more than intraday, and we made new closing lows in the SPX and the RUT today. Dow theorists might also find it interesting that we made a new intraday AND a new closing low in the DJT.
So I guess I respectfully don’t agree with the “no new lows” comment.
Not a dow theorist!!!
NY ROUNDUP – Monday, March 9, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
OPEC cuts global oil demand forecast by 1 mbpd
USTR Nominee Kirk: Top priority will be enforcing trade pacts
White House CEA Romer: Too soon to talk of more stimulus
ECB Trichet: G10 central bankers see global slowdown, but hold out hope of pickup
EuroGroup Juncker: This is a deep recession, all forecasts gloomy
COMMENTS
Last Tuesday was a 9 out of 100 year event – a square root day – 3-3-9. So today’s 3-9-9 is unfortunately less exceptional – even as we print new lows for the equity market down 1%, see bonds go down over a point (30Y up 4 bps) watch oil rally 3% along with the USD up 1% and we see gold down 3% – the favorite alternative trade – melting back into just another yellow metal. So today was about the lack of excitement for the numbers. We tried to hold onto hope and instead found confusion. The rally back that met US equities at the open was linked to the mergers announced, the Obama stem cell research ban being lifted and the technical push from Friday. The selling came on the doubts about policy and its lack of global coordination. The upcoming G20 meeting is increasingly grabbing headlines. The ability for the US or Europe to change the course of a global recession increasingly seems to be met with protectionism, financial rules and doubts about the money already thrown at the problem. Hope revolves around the view that new policies will be faster in their delivery of money to the global economy. Hope also clings to the TARP and its myriad of programs to help buy toxic assets, lift mark-to-market accounting rules, and magically uncover liquidity over solvency. The cost of the fix – inflation – seems miles away from the G10 but we get reminders of how currencies have a role to play in this game – witness the Mexican CPI report or the actions of the Turkish Central Bank to stop new TRY pain via intervention. At some point, devaluation games lead to more trouble. For the USD today, the gains in the USD vs GBP, NOK and CAD come at cost in future growth. The currencies all are at silly long-term valuation levels – with NOK and GBP clearly able to compete well with the EUR zone – but that potential isn’t enough to satisfy present investors. So we search for a new math to explain the rough balance of short term worries against long term gains. If this is a race to the bottom then the USD and EUR have the most to fall. If this is a rush to zero rate policy then NOK and EUR have more room. But today FX didn’t drive on those stories – in fact – it didn’t drive at all with investors more literate than numerate. There was no one equation to figure out how to trade today – and most doubt there will be one tomorrow either. Correlation to the EUR and S&P500 broke; Correlation of Oil to CAD broke; Correlation of rates to USD broke and so goes the list until most give up and look for a new book.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.2555 1.2663 Close: 1.2629
JPY/USD 98.68 99.19 Close: 98.81
JPY/EUR 124.12 125.5 Close: 124.7871
USD/GBP 1.3741 1.3973 Close: 1.3799
GBP/EUR 0.9039 0.9188 Close: 0.9152
CHF/USD 1.1579 1.1682 Close: 1.1587
CHF/EUR 1.4602 1.4719 Close: 1.4633
USD/AUD 0.631 0.6373 Close: 0.6329
CAD/USD 1.2898 1.3066 Close: 1.2958
NZD/USD 0.4924 0.4992 Close: 0.4937
so…are we in wave 1,2, 3 , 4, 5?
hopefully start of 4 but don’t know–could be end of 1.
Have you guys seen how many members we have in stocktock? Coinsidence? Muahaha
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/members/
cool
It was actually 666 when I first posted this.. Aparently we have a few new members lifting us up from that number’s depth
..
Dartline™ First Look – morning directional planner
…. and Closing Thoughts.
March 9, 2009, 5:30pm …. Closing Thoughts … The Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 6.85, or 1 percent, to 676.53, as Buffett changed his mind, and now cried that the economy had “fallen off a cliff.” He noted that consumers have changed their habits in remarkable ways. Wasn’t he the ASSHOLE who said “Now’s the time to buy stocks with bargain never before cheater?” Oh yes, that was back in November. So much for hidden agendas. … Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have fallen more than 25 percent this year. The Dow is at its lowest level since the spring of 1997, and the S&P 500 is at its lowest point since the fall of 1996. … Benchmark crude for April delivery gained $1.55 to settle at $47.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. A barrel of oil, which last cost more than $50 in early January, had reached as high as $48.83 earlier on more OPEC production cuts. The rally surged even as the dollar rebounded against other major currencies as investors are prone to buy commodities like oil and gold as a protection against inflation and dollar weakness. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plans to meet Sunday in Vienna, and some of the group’s leaders have said a production cut is likely. Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari was quoted by the official IRNA news agency Sunday saying OPEC members have “almost” completely complied with the 4.2 million barrels a day of output quota reductions announced since September. Also on Monday, Iraq’s oil minister said crude oil prices are not “profitable and fair” for oil producing countries and should be increased. Hussain al-Shahristani, speaking to the private Sharqiyah television station, said OPEC members are working to control prices to “inch them up.”
Planned on flying to Vienna this weekend to enjoy music’s best homeplace. May step into OPEC’s meeting————not! Will reconsider.
Currently holding 6k shares of FAS that I bought Friday and today………..Any legs to this March 12 hearing on Mark to Market?
Anyone know how many stab wounds JPM is suffering from currently… If the bleeding can come to a stop, we might see decent volume to the upside , however I feel there is a bit more blood to shed out of the financial sector.
Currently on the sidelines however, taking notice of the toppiness of the skf and am feeling more and more comfortable about the short…
Anyone else looking to put long trades on in the Financials??
5K shares of FAS
re : FAS and mark to market.
a company’s share price is based on profitability, risk, ability to pay a dividend. last time i checked this did not include how they do thier accounting.
in order to make a profit .. sales – costs = revenue. no matter what accounting you use this is the simple formula. allowing a company to over-inflate assest on thier books will help them make more profits how?
somone on CNBC said that bank shares will double in value on mark to market accounting change. does this mean they will be chopped by 25%? trading the obvious is always so dangerous. why bother taking that risk.
So your an FA ?
I think there is a good chance we will see a rally heading into the meeting on M2M Thursday. It’s very likely that we’ll see significant short covering which will give the market a decent boost. Sorry, I have a long bias on FAS.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Agreed Richard . . . long term modifying/eliminating M2M is not a game changer . . . it
doesn’t change cash flow (which can be a better indicator of the strength of an
individual company. However, modifying/eliminating M2M will allow the banks to
revalue the assets on the books and book a one time gain on these assets.
Then presto . . . . all of the banks are wildly profitable again. LOL.
Im in FAS this morning based upon the bull flag that developed yesterday . . . should
see it break out of the flag first thing this morning based upon futures.
looking to add FAS Mar 4 puts tomorrow
Why would you do that? You will net $0.40 of premium if you sell those puts and the stock closes next Friday at today’s close. Why not leave your self $0.20 of cushion and sell the $2.50 puts for $0.45 at the bid … your return on capital deployed will be much better and you won’t lose money until the FAS hits $2.05.
That’s crazy talk. My bet is on bank stress test talk will boost banks to the moon before Opex…
Can someone start an Intraday? Idan’s on vacation
Futures at 689. Short the hell out of this. Richard. Great call on FL.
OSCAR: OMNI SAYS TO SELL THE LOW TO MID 690.00(s). PLACE YOUR PROTECTIVE BUY STOPS ABOVE…
(OMNI PROFIT OBJECTIVE = THE MID TO LOW 650.00(s) WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PRINT AS LOW AS THE LOW 640.00(s) IF THEY REALLY START LEANING ON THIS MARKET.
1st FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 04:23:01 AM EST
Traders,
Begin entering at market right here at market.
last price = 688.25
Keep your stops in place.
Hey Fl guy whats your take on todays action?? Long or short?
SHORT SHORT SHORT!!!. I’ll be adding puts in the first half hour. If SPX rallies to 700….so be it. I’ll be all-in short then. It could be one of those rare fish-in-a-barrel days. Focus on tech. Pick you fav QQQQ stock and bet the farm. I tend to the single stocks that make up the index. AAPL, MSFT, GOOG still have room to run. Plenty of targets. We’ll test the 666 and BREAK IT AT SOME POINT. IMVHO
No Craig.
No Idan.
No Mohan.
No S135
No Dan
Nobody to start up a new intraday?
Recovery Plan?
Yesterday:
The S&P was attempting a recovery absorbing selling pressure but having a hard time breaking into new highs. Prices went through a retracement but did not break the prior low, so a recovery may be occurring.
Today:
Prices have been attempting a recovery but there still appears to be a great deal of inventory for sale, pushing down the rallies. We could be seeing a change in trend to the upside being created but since it is early in its formation traders may want to first wait for a confirmation. Each rally has been sold into so far but as I had pointed out that we may be overextended on the short term. A break over the 700 range would be a position thing for the bulls, but traders need to watch the selling pressure that could step in near 700. I had stated in my commentary that we could be seeing a low on the short term and a good break over 700 could mean a move back to 740. The banking sector could be ready for a short term recovery because they seem oversold on the short term.
Bulls: The bulls need prices to break the 700 range or at least hold the retracement or prior low, if we are to get a recovery. Prices went through a pretty big retracement yesterday so that could indicate another test may be necessary.
Bears: The bears need to be mindful of their entries since we could be seeing a change in trend. Since we could be looking at a possible change the bears must be mindful of the targets and entries watching out for upside momentum. Traders must be mindful that the downside risk is increasing as prices attempt to establish a low.
Support / Resistance:
702-704 2nd resistance
690-692 1st resistance
677-679 1st support
665-666 2nd support
Notes:
In my commentary I pointed out that prices may be attempting a recovery but traders must be mindful of the selling pressure. It is difficult for traders on the long side since there will still be inventories to sell but if funds are to average down or bet the upside this area and 640 would be the range they would fade into long positions. This will allow them to move out of positions that they may have at a much higher cost level.
Gannfann
I guess we can continue here for today
where is the wave 4 target if 666 is end of wave 3?
Good morning everyone. Snow has my satellite dish acting spooky. Life in the backcountry. Looks like it’s going to be a good trade day. Carry on w/o me for awhile!
what happen yesterday with this site? I couldnt log on…I was so lost without you guys!
If A=C then S&P 500 will stall out near 701 today.
I’m confused… ain’t we in wave 4 already? That is supposed to take us to 740? Market is oversold and I don’t see single reason to stay short at this time.
We’re all confused iceman… until the upmove is confirmed we don’t know if we’re at the tail end of 3 or the beginning of 4. I’m hoping we’ve started 4.
Oscar’s video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hv-9ynhTDHc
Bernanke is talking about M2M and looks like they are laying the groundwork and judging the markets reaction to possible suspension / changes to M2M…. While I dont agree with a long term change to the same but I guess in the short term they need to shore up value. It might work or it might not just like everything they have done so far!!!!!!! LOL
FAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
New intraday comments are now open
Hey, Scott started a new thread for comentary..