Today we reiterated our views on the market, and how we have successfully managed to trade the ups and downs according to fibonacci retracements. The move on monday was very predictable, and so was the move today. We believe that today’s last 2 10 minute candles could be a dead cat bounce and that tomorrow could be another move lower, but very soon we should be starting elliot subwave 4 of wave 5, which should provide a week of bullishness in the market before we begin the last move lower of capitulation. We look at GS as it showing strong signs of weakness, a lot of H&S formations are forming on the GS charts, and eventually we will break it and could fall more than 20 points down. More importantly the VIX hasn’t spiked just yet, but it is preparing to. An inverse H&S has formed on the VIX and it’s target is close to 58-60 which should be a good double top area and can symbolize the end of a subwave, potentially subwave 3 if we continue down tomorrow.
We have had one of the best trading weeks in a decade, and have finally gotten a good hold of where this market could be heading.
Idan, thank you for all your hard work in putting these charts together. Quick question, can subwave 4 rally start with Goldman going down 20. How do you see that playing out? Thanks again.
That’s a great question, no it can’t. Subwave 4 can start with goldman forming a longer right shoulder, and eventually falling 20. Or, Goldman can break the head shoulders, start falling and then subwave 4 comes and forms a bear flag, and continues falling during subwave 5 until it reaches the 20$ target.
Hi Idan.. Great video.
Tomorrow’s Omni is:
OMNI SAYS TO SELL AT THE 699.00 – 701.00 LEVEL. OMNI PROFIT OBJECTIVE = low 660′s
This goes in coordination with Brian Shannon’s scenario 2 here: http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2009/03/roadmap-for-tomorrow.html
My question is, as far as the third & fourth wave goes, could we go all the way up to 700 and then turn around to finish wave 3 without violating the wave count?
yes, we can go up to 711$ which is the 61.8% retracement of the move lower. Though, if we do get this high then i would be already assuming subwave 4. If we are still in part 5 of subwave 3, the highest we should go is 705 ish.
idan, what is your target for spx in subwave 4? If spy goes up to 78, can spx get to 775?
yup, but that’s the highest it can go.
Idan, I’ll ask you what I asked Daneric. If the 37 chart is correct, we continue this plunge well into next week. Is this where we depart from that chart in your view? Thx
What chart are you referring to when you say 37?
I expect subwave 4 to begin very soon, maybe monday, and then we move up for 3-5 days, and then fall in a capitulation of about a week or two at most.
Hey Idan – good video. I (we) also appreciate that you’ve been increasing your daily posts. thnx again.