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05
Mar
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4:12pm
Hey guys, today the amount of comments broke a record on stocktock.com. I really appreciate your comments, i try to read all of them when i have time, and you guys have some amazing trades out there, that for the most part are better than my own. I love the way that every comment on the board is non-spam and provides  valuable information for the stocktock community. Don’t forget to check social.stocktock.com where you can share your own charts and beliefs on the market, and there is also a cool new chatting platform that i’m on almost all the time.Â
3:54pm
Dead cat bounce? realllllllly? It might be worth taking a shot at a short right now on this sudden move higher.Â
3:44pm
Taking some more profits here is wise, we are now reaching the 150.0% retracement of yesterdays move. I took 90% of my positions off, leaving only my GS PUT on 75$ on.Â
3:15pm
Small bounce in the market over the last 20 minutes, the market is however just bouncing since financials are hitting a technical support level, this doesn’t look like a reversal yet, and is potentially a bear flag. GS looks weak here, it’s bounce is not impressive especially since $80 is a major neckline for a H&S, and this could mean GS will move much lower over the next 3-4 days.Â
2:21pm
I took half of my profits on my GS and SPY puts… i’m looking to reneter at a potentially higher level when a bear flag forms. GS should bounce around the 80.40 level.
12:10am
I have to go eat lunch, and then to a meeting, but GS is showing signs of a pennant formation on the 1 minute.
11:48am
I just bought more GS out of the money puts (march 75$). We are breaking the bear flag, so we might get another push lower here.
11:41am
Bear flag forming after we broke to new lows, this is where people should start considering piling in their shorts. I’m looking to add an SPY PUT and XLF PUT position here.
11:17am
We’re breaking nicely here. Strong support lies in 68.45$, and 68.05$. 138.2% and 150% of yesterdays move higher.
11:11am
GS is potentially forming a 60 minute head and shoulders, neckline at strong support 80$. SPY is not going to hold up much longer.
11:00am
Market finally testing the ultimate bottom, we should get a bounce here, but eventually break. This day will be a dismal day I think.
10:47am
Retesting opening levels again, we should break soon.
10:26am
market slightly bouncing at opening levels. This, so far, looks like a bear flag.
10:10am
The market has broken down the bull flag pattern which is today’s intraday trading. But the real test is 70.40$. If we break that, we’re going lower for sure. P.S. I have added more PUTS on the SPY when we broke the bull flag pattern.
9:49am
Take a look at a 1 minute intraday GS vs SPY chart, and you’ll see what i see. P.S. H&S on the 1 minute SPY.
9:34am
I bought some GS puts with a stop over yesterday’s close.
9:27am
With the markets already down premarket 2.25%, and we are close to the lows, we will probably form a bear flag when we hit the lows. That’s when all the bears will pile in, and we can get an insane capitulation move today.
1:20am
Hey guys, so the exact thing that I predicted would happen late in the afternoon ended up happening. The 50% retracement served as strong support and pushed stocks lower. The futures are trading below the 705$ support on the $SPX but this doesn’t mean that the push higher is over yet. If we break the 61.8% retracement of this move higher which sits at 70.9$ on the SPY during trading hours then we should consider this move higher potentially over. I have put in a small SPY march PUT position at the end of the day as we hit the 50% retarcement. I’ll look to add to that if we form a bear flag in trading hours.
Any body holding overnight? Do you think we will rally tomorrow or will this madness continue?
March 5th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
According to EWT it continues south. Look for 671, 652, or 637 and follow Daneric’s wave count for the bottom.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Good call Shanky.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Ask me in 10 minutes. Am thinking of a small position in BGU. I expect the jobs # is already pretty much baked in.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Holding lots of short ETF’s overnight. If I give back a little (or a lot – don’t think so) I can handle it.
Holding short has worked amazingly well for me this week.
March 5th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
All FAZ, all the time . . . until I sell it . . .
SPX island top at 685.
8th FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 03:44:24 PM EST:
Daddy always told me when you get your WALLET back, take it and run.
I am out here of all but 1 runner.
Last print 676.25.
If you choose to stay in, stops are break even, Be sure to be out by the close.
im taking no extra positions. out of range.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
im such a liar… trigger happy
took a very small long positing at 678 for fun… no real effect on account
March 5th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
$3.98 on the HSU… who knows if i paid a fair price or not.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
looks like i may have paid $0.02 too much. hell if i know. every long overnight ive taken has made me nothing … 8th time lucky?
March 5th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Me too…USB, probably stupid but I got it at the regurgitated low “just for fun” very small position
Any one adding any oil positions for overnight???
March 5th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
not me … its is not bullshitish enough.. its in no man’s land.
March 5th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Thanks
March 5th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
LUKOY
FAS has traded 260M shares today. That’s more than the XLF!
WOW
loaded up with FAZ puts…phew, I lost my connection…got back and all stops were hit…jeesh.
strongly believe that we will NOT get a rally despite going long. im hoping for a morning blip up and more of the same boring hold 690 crap.
more decline tomorrow. tomorrow is my turn date.. turn where? maybe just turn sideways:)
that 10 point drop just retraced only 38%… rut roh
are we going lower.. i think so!
March 5th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
im out of this trade with $36 profit ha ha… not interested. lame bounce off of 678 and only corrective.. no conviction.
i went to get some food and 678 hit, RIGHT on the numbers as planned. Like i said, the green trend line went to 678 at EOD. i’m not holding anything into tomorrow. great day!
will get back in tomorrow at a better position.
* DON’T TRADE OFF THIS – THIS IS JUST FOR THE CONFETTI RIGHTS *
According to my count this is the very last sub-subminuette wave. 3,(5) will be over by EOD today. The chicken has cooked all day. Turn the overn off and stick a fork in it. It’s done.
March 5th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
i went long at 678,,, we only weakly retraced. we head lower after hours 673 target not hit. sticking to my turn date of tomorrow. we head lower. they cant sell worthless 600 puts at this level and they cant convince 690 call holders to sell back to the house on the cheap.
im out of a long position overnight.
have to go lower … please
March 5th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
crapola. thought we were closing above 680 .. oh well. im still winning.
March 5th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
ok… did the right thing… saving 680 has to be bearish.. barely did it.
March 5th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Russell is giving a very clear five count. You can count every sub-subminuette wave. If I’m wrong it’s because my eyes are lying to me.
SPX now has an island top and island bottom fomations in play. Simply awesome.
Man o man…worked my tail off since 5:00 AM (California time) and only made 1% today because of an internet connection…
Very happy for everyone who cashed in…
March 5th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
1% up is better than 1% down
March 5th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Idan, new to this. Too much money, not enough sense. Followed your post a couple of days ago, calling for VIX to hit 57. Does this correlate to a bottom of 3 to start 4, or am I too simplistic?
March 5th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
that correlates with subwave 3 and start of wave 4 yes. The VIX is forming an inverse head and shoulders on the 60 minute, which should take us to at least 57-60$.
DOUBLED DOWN ON AZO PUTS
JUN 130s — she is really going to have to crack to get there. 20% decline by JUNE? that is what im banking on.
Man, we need a chat room or something. I am tired of refreshing this page every 10secs. lol
Richard Yeah. AZO is the next bubble to pop!
Education stocks APOL, STRA, ESI all popped.. so did biotech
March 5th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
Amen!
I trickled into TNA all day. Averaged in at 11.35. Closed at 10.98 and is at 11.17 in after hours. Tomorrow will be fun.
which wave of subway 5 now? can not tell
March 5th, 2009 at 4:36 pm
we are in part 5 of subwave 3. This should continue for 1-2 more days, and then we will be starting subwave 4.
CPC. The line blue dashed is correct ?
Thanks.
Interesting SPY action after hours:
After Hours
Time Price Shares
16:39 $ 69.12 100
16:39 $ 69.12 200
16:39 $ 69.10 369
16:39 $ 71.73 1,499,151
16:39 $ 69.10 700
Yes, somebody sold and, amazingly, somebody BOUGHT over $100mil worth of SPY at a premium of $2.63 = 3.8% to the market share price.
March 5th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
Sometimes those are prearranged deals so price was locked in. Seen that on many other stocks.
March 5th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
and prolly it was done before market close
March 5th, 2009 at 9:31 pm
I thought it was something like that — had to be, really.
March 5th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
“Govern”ment? By the way, posted you back on FAZ with your $39 position–no response. Know that you sold and possibly bought back. What are your future thoughts–I sold out at $96?
March 5th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
Sorry, I missed your post. Add me as a friend on Social and inbox me, and I won’t miss it.
I sold most of the FAZ bought at 39.30 at about 70.
I am 121.8% ahead with FAZ (on paper) in the past week:
2/26: bought at 47.80
3/3: sold at 79
3/4: bought at 74+
3/5: close after hours: 101.36
I looked at a lot of indicators — FAZ doesn’t look very toppish. For instance, it is not elevated as far above the upper BB and has not been pushing the upper BB as long as when it made tops in the past, and the 20 dMA and 50dMA have bull-crossed and both are curving up more rapidly and at an accelerating rate compared to previous tops. Thus I am watching FAZ obesessively until it tops out, because it could turn my double into a triple or 4-bagger if things go well and I get out before in drops back by 50% in 3 hours or some such. Also the financials are dropping worse now than $SPX. Part of it is because they are beaten down so much that they are no longer a large part of the S&P; C is fighting to keep from becoming a penny stock. Of course, friends in high places have kept C and a few other financials with micro share prices from being automatically de-listed, as would happen to most other companies that were becoming worthless in market cap.
Had a meeting and missed the close. Held XLF and that damn NEM overnight, along with a few AAPL 85 puts. Great day, month, year, all-in-all.
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, March 5, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
· US MBA mortgage delinquency rates for 4Q08 rises to 7.88% – new record high
US Factory Orders for January drop 1.9% – better than expected
US weekly jobless claims fell 31,000 to 639,000 – better than expected
US 4Q business productivity revised to -0.4% after 3.2% preliminary – much worse
COMMENTS
The one step forward two steps back dance of equities proved less than beguiling today and left many wondering what magic potion central bankers can use to make up for the music turning from a remorseful tune to funeral dirge. Even after rate cuts from the BOE and a bold move to quantitative easing – targeting long-end bonds – and after the ECB cuts 50 bps – no one goes home happy in the US. Equities down over 4%; Oil nearly 4%; Gold up 3%; bonds up 3 points with 10Y yields down 16 points to 2.81% – all are symptoms of a party gone awry. The previous 20 years of central banking would have seen market’s bewitched with the idea of more liquidity. The trouble is the pump priming of new money no longer works in a world rushing to deleverage. Debt is a four letter word. The plans of the government are clear – rush money to the consumer. Obama’s mortgage plan should help 1 in 9 home owners but delinquencies are seen in 1 out of 8. So the elixir doesn’t cover the problem. Confidence has been shaken and the technicals reflect a market prepared to run to even more painful levels as many see the crush of asset deflation as the only mechanism left to fix years of easy living. The question of politics is whether the market pain will translate over into the real economy. We find this out tomorrow with the US employment report. It’s the usual event – but with more than usual interest given the risk of significant downside as many see the acceleration of job losses as yet another reason to fear financials and their exposure to the real economy. Many are searching today for a way out of this morass. The Camelot of better credit and the Excalibur of government stimulus falls today – we rush now to lesser ploys like the difference between mark-to-market and mark-to-model to somehow save the chart. Yet all isn’t lost. The shove lower in assets today leaves opportunities in FX – as the world dances around the inevitable rush to the bottom the differentials of currency values looks to be a logical place to find real value. Consider the themes: 1) Markets reward pro-cyclical policy. Today we saw the BOE do more than the ECB – result – GBP and FTSE higher on a relative basis than the DAX and EUR. 2) Countries that have room to still act are rewarded – so nations with surpluses to spend or rates still to cut outperform – witness BRL over TRY. 3) Disposable over durables. The market has figured out that even in a recession people eat and so its about needs not wants. The food producers will beat out the energy makers and the excess capacity users of industry will suffer the most – so the focus remains on MXN, PLN and KRW as the currencies in the eye of the global storm. Bottom line – the flexibility of global capital markets hasn’t died at the hand of an evil witch we merely have strayed off the dance floor. There is plenty of dislocated money to be found as the world runs for the safe rather than the logical exits.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.2482 1.2584 Close: 1.2543
JPY/USD 97.72 99.54 Close: 98.27
JPY/EUR 122.7 125.02 Close: 123.2601
USD/GBP 1.4037 1.4164 Close: 1.4111
GBP/EUR 0.8854 0.894 Close: 0.8889
CHF/USD 1.1675 1.181 Close: 1.171
CHF/EUR 1.4677 1.4775 Close: 1.4688
USD/AUD 0.6356 0.6448 Close: 0.6366
CAD/USD 1.2782 1.2913 Close: 1.2903
NZD/USD 0.4969 0.5045 Close: 0.4981
i am all in FAS at 2.75, i ll give it 4 trading days
March 5th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
that’s way too risky for me… haha
good website for pivots
http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/pivot-points-camarilla