Intraday Commentary ~ 3/4/09

By
FocalEquity
– March 4, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

4:41pm
The bears might be back, the 50% retracement formed strong resistance, tomorrow will either be the continuation of the move higher, or the start of part 5 of subwave 3.

3:13pm
This market is breaking the 50% too easily. The bears are still not present. I expect them to come back soon.

2:49pm
I’m getting a feb 24th flashback here. 72.60$ is a 50% retracement move of the highs of 2 days ago.


2:43pm
Market is breaking to new highs. It’ll be interesting to see if we close up here though.
2:26pm
Head and shoulders formed on 1 minute SPY. Bears finally piling in…
2:21pm
Market testing the 71.90-72.0$ resistance, bears not necessarily piling in yet.
1:56pm
10 year yields $TNX, or $TNX.X close to their lows, does that mean anything? Sell off?

1:34pm
SPY market at the 5 minute level, could be forming an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at the 71.60$, which will help it break to new highs (above 71.90$). We will have to see, how far the bears can push it down first to form the right shoulder (WV pattern). I do have an SPY short on, but it’s a small position. I’ll look to cover if we break 71.90$, and then i’ll put it back on at a higher level.

12:58pm
Intraday H&S on the SPY at 71.10$.
12:17pm
For those who want to talk to me as I place the trades, i’m on the social stocktock site on the chat.
12:14pm
This market has retraced 38.2% of the move lower from 3 days ago, is that enough? Usually it isn’t, but the bears could want to pile in soon.
12:09pm
Stopped out, total profit 0.09%.
12:05pm
30% of the profits were taken off at 71.90$, the rest is on, until 2nd target or stop loss is reached. If we break 38.2% retracement of this move higher at 71.32$, then i’ll be looking to short.
11:50am
INTRADAY TRADE: Long SPY $71.63, Stop loss = 71.45$, Target: $71.90, 72.20 and then $73.50

11:46am
The market has already hit the resistance which use to form neckline support for the H&S on the SPY. The bears are not really piling in here though. We’re forming a potential bull flag.

11:38am
I got stopped out of my GS short position with a net -1.3% loss.

9:47am
Taking profits on the SSO is the risk averse thing to do. I’m also short GS. SPY now showing signs of head and shoulders.

9:40am
Hey guys, the market is up about 2 %, which gives me time to unload my SSO position. We might crack higher 71.60$ forms resistance of 61.8% retracement of the last 2 day move down. But it looks like we might break it. GS, however is forming the KISS OF DEATH, as it didn’t fully retest the neckline of the H&S we had earlier. So we could be looking for a severe crash.

12:52am
Hey guys, so yesterday I took a position which i’m not necessarily too proud off because it was too risky. I took a SSO (double long SPY) position hoping for an inverse shoulders to form, but my stoploss was kinda far. Depending on where we open, i’ll look to cover that position. Nevertheless, I do believe we could be in for a move higher of consolidation. Whether it is the start of subwave 4 or only part 4 of subwave 3, consolidation is needed to help the bears pile up. I expect GS, to retest to the H&S neckline, at which point I will short sell it. It looks incredibly week, and when it hits that neckline the shorts might be able to push it down very strongly.

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.