3:24pm
Market could be potentially putting in a double bottom. But in my opinoin it won’t get the market anywhere, this market is bound to go lower today…
2:54pm
38.2% retracement was resistance, and we fell back down.. if we form a small bear flag on low volume i’ll add into a short for a potential head and shoulders (MA) with a neckline of 71.08
2:40pm
I have covered my SPY puts and shorts at 71.25, and still own some QQQQ puts and will hold those for a little longer. I will look to add my shorts back on, on fibretracements only. More likely a 50 or 61.8% fib ret.
11:38am
I have to step out for lunch with a client, but i’ll be back later today.
11:31am
Market just can’t bottom out, there are no bulls out there. New lows. Vix spiking up to new highs at $51.
10:42am
We’re breaking down under the fib retracement support.
10:35am
We have a huge head and shoulders in play from the last few days. And we’ve already come back to test the neckline, this looks bearish.
10:24am
Market bounced from the support of 72.04 which is the 168.1% FIB retracement of the 4 % move higher we had. Once that breaks, we won’t have that many support levels left before the upper 60s.
10:22am
Market broke to new lows, we could be forming a bear flag now, the 1 minute 20 SMA could serve the resistance needed to push this market down even further. A break of it, could set up for an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline of 72.32.
10:10am
The market has formed and broke down a head and shoulders with a neckline as a 72.55 on the SPY, we might retrace to the neckline and potentially move lower from there.
9:53am
Market is retracing a move, still far away from the 38.2% at 73.21 SPY. But we might get a 10 am reversal and then potentially fall even lower.
9:02am
The markets are about to open 2% lower, this could be the start to another horrible day. If you’re still short, taking a few contracts off for profit at open might be wise.
she went in for a taste of the 600s. congrats to those that called it today
look like a sell off we will see than tomorrow the bounce !? or still bournig the bear over night!? but something nasty must happen !
close below 700 would be very bearish and id expect a pop up in the morning so im holding on in fear
a close above 700 would be bullish and so i’d have more fear holding longs.
If we hold 700 shouldnt we get a bounce…. So over sold… Do we really have another 20-30 points left to drop before we move higher?
Almost perfectly nailed my target on the $$ 1 SPX – 60 min Drill Down chart. I was off by an hour. Very curious as to what happens overninght.
agree with richard, if we see sub 700 close it might be good nite. this is a critical point for those looking for 3 to end
699
I think I see an inverted H&S forming on the 30 min SPY. Plus the physological 700 level is forcing me to call a temporary bottom here. I say we bounce tomorrow. Do I have any believers?
just bought faz for 74.89. wish I could have shorted fas but I wasn’t allowed to..
I just went short on the SKF with a spread….We will see…. small position
it seems today finish wave iii, there should be 38.2% retrace tomorrow morning for iv, then down again to finish wave 3
Do you think we will bounce tomorrow? Anybody holding overnight?
i’m holding overnight with longs…=) let’s have some fun…
I like where your heads at WOO
I’m going to pull the BGU trigger within the last couple of minutes. I will sort it out in the morning.
I’m also long over night..
Just sold my FAZ held from Friday.
In cash overnight.
Gloom and doom on CNBS. Big volume battle here. Crazy. Bulls will prevail
I think there is a Bearish rising wedge forming on FAZ and SKF> Can anyone confirm please?
The patterns of MAs, BBs, RSI, and MACD on the SKF chart are reminiscent of those in the early stages of the largest percentage runups that peaked in July and November:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SKF
the 20dMA has bull-crossed up thru the 50dMA and both the 20dMA and the upper Bollinger band are rising, with a distinct possibility that SKF (and FAZ) will be driving up the “left lane” (upper BB as shoulder; 20dMA as dotted center line) to a peak we will have to play chicken with here in a few days. If 650 or so is where wave 4 of (5) of [1] starts, S&P will be down by about 7% from here. FAZ levers S&P by minus 5 to minus 10, usually about minus 7.5, so FAZ might have another 50% in it. These are all SWAGs of course, but I am still holding FAZ and do not see bearish indications in its chart.
It will possibly do some squiggling on its way up. FAZ dropped a bit after hours, from a close of 74.34 down to 73.02 but now is back to nearly 74, and you can see the occasional red bar among the green in those left lane rises of both SKF and FAZ. However, when these two ETFs finally do top, they need to be dumped in a hurry, better a bit too soon than a bit too late, as verifiable from the above-linked chart.
this 700 stick save should have anyone long extremely nervous
agreed. The media can spout off this eve about how we tested 700; ducked below 700 for a brief moment but closed above 700. Hype.
Valerie,
some people are learning the market shenanigans. good stuff!
im glad i learnt when i did or i’d be broke. i’ve never been up this much in one day so im hedging my bet but im 90% convinced it’s a losing hedge. better safe than sorry.
They are mostly talking about the Dow closing below 7000. As one might expect, the least relevant index draws the most attention.
Just bought 5K shares of FAZ at $3.95.
I assume you mean FAS….lol
Yes, FAS!
OK,,, you better hope for a close below 700 here im thinking.
I like that trade!!! It is just so oversold that I cant see us not recovering the gap in SKF sometime soon.
FAS may well be painful — see my comment in box 12 above re similarity of current patterns to those launching the July and November peaks in SKF. If S&P finds 650 here, FAS could lose 50% or so. I am still holding FAZ.
my RUSSEL puts are huge
look at that 368 on the RUSSELS … the world is in a deep hurt
this is f’d up. i’m not touching anything. we may even get a crash or a 4 wave up tomorrow. gonna hold tight
HOLY S***
Long BGU @$16.38 expecting AM bounce
im long something too and im expecting no bounce… that makes a market.
this feels like we could put in the low tomorrow.. .saving 700 is a death sentence?
in my mind it is.
It might be, but I think one can confidently see a nice bounce coming shortly.
did you say before holding closing over 700 is bulish, under bearish???
Or is that permabear speaking?
nice….you got him on that one
r u an armchair quarterback? Football is over!
Don’t forget that the Dow fell well below 7000 and closed there today for the first time since Oct 1997. That event, and even S&P just spiking 600, is the most-read story on Bloomberg for the hour and the day.
Anyone think we are going to bounce tomorrow?
I do.
Me too. The money is where my mouth is!
im on that train!!!
I don’t. If so, not much and not for long.
Great to spend the day with you guys.
Get outside for some fresh air; end the day with a good drink and I’ll see you tomorrow
!!
Bought VIX 45 puts @ 2.70. Admit these are gambles. Nothing more. I am 98% cash. There plenty of downside to come when the big Q stocks and the “good” banks fall of a cliff.
In BGU @ 16.40. I will be watch the E-mini futures on http://www.prophet.net/quotes/emini_quotes.jsp
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H09.E&v=w
Better for e-mini charts.
Well I wanted to sell some FAZ but my broker/interrnet would not let me. Oh well, any turn date but tomorrow please!
I am hanging on, expecting a perhaps squiggly migration about 50% higher. This is more like the big rises (see SKF) topping in July and November.
Consolidation tomorrow?
O.B.A.M.A = One Big Ass Mistake America
No kidding.
There’s something seriously wrong with that guy. He actually scares me more than Bush, and that’s saying something.
Well,, I know he didn’t win Georgia thanks to you.. That’s for sure..
Classic case of “be careful what you ask for”.
oh come on guys, he’s just trying to help us out! Clearly you can’t argue with the fact that IT’S NOT FAIR that some people have more money than others.
Plus the market seems to really be responding well to all his new policies!
Shanky,
he is pretty slow. but ,, tell me who can get us out of this mess? no one. all we have been doing is producing cars and houses and most people with money have at least 2 of each. the show is over.
Come on Shanky – we agree on Ron Paul. That is good. But I have to say I am noi with you on this:
“O.B.A.M.A = One Big Ass Mistake America”
As opposed to 8 years of Bush, 12 years of Republicrooks in Congress, and 27 years of ‘tax cuts’ as cure-for-all?
closed above 700 … open below it. futures currently trading under it .. but that doesnt mean much. im really expecting sub 700 open. maybe i fight for 700 for the day and then continued selling into the 6th.. my turn date.
hang in there. the puppet show goes on.
Where’s the PPT when you need ‘em?
I dont think OBAMA has a PPT in place. for some reason I think he is letting the markets sort themselves out without fluffing the trading….. Just my 2 cents
The membership in the PPT is already specified. I think they were trying to get S&P to close Friday above the Nov low for the day, week, and month. Look at the 2nd chart in this post from Social:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/michael-how-bad-will-it-get
for some reason my calls are more expensive…at this same point earlier i was down over 5%, now i’m up 4%…looks like somebody is expecting a bounce…
if we haven’t finishe iii, how low the wave 3 can finish.
680–690?
650?
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/things-may-well-be-worse-than
NY ROUNDUP – Monday, March 2, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US February Manufacturing ISM 35.8 up from 35.6 – better than expected
US Comptroller of the Currency Dugan: Questions loan loss provisions
US January construction spending drops 3.3% to $986.2 bn – worse than expected
US January personal spending up 0.6%, income up 0.4% – both more than expected
ECB working on plan for direct Central Bank lending to EMU firms
COMMENTS
The market got better than expected income, spending, ISM data today but that wasn’t good enough to beat back the pressure in equities to scratch out new lows. We close today with Equities off 4.6% – DJIA below 6800 (forget about 10K caps start worrying about 5K?); SPX broke 700 interday and we close with the broader Russell 2000 at off 5.5%. The simple way of understanding today – after Citibank and AIG many see the limits to government solutions. The AIG $61.7 bn loss gets headlines as the worst performance yet for a corporation in a quarter. Some will tell you today’s lack of confidence rests on inaction but the evidence is to the contrary. There is the smell of risk reduction rather than logic in the air. Consider the rush to gold which unwound again today closing at the key 925 support even as the future inflation outlooks remain high (witness the 5Y 5Y inflation rate). Yet bonds rally – with the 5Y gaining the most. Yield there drops 15 bps to 1.843%; 10Y off 14 bps to 2.88%. Spreads to credit remain at the wides – fear of the economy now finds more citation that due to bad risk management. The correlations are continuing to break down in all sorts of markets – so JPY did nothing today even as equities melted. So Oil fell 10% even as NOK outperforms the SEK or CAD beats out the AUD. Relative value trading has been smashed as volatility in tired ranges runs rampant over rational investors. The biggest concern remains in Emerging Markets. We started the day with the weekend results of the EU non-blanket approach to Eastern Europe and we close today with LATAM suffering – BRL off 2% and MXN off 1.8% – both reflect a rush to the USD. Safe-havens are hard to find in a world concerned about deflation even in a week full of central bank decisions. Expect the RBA and BOC rate cuts to be the focus next with the BOE and ECB following later ahead of the US jobs report on Friday. How markets react to new lows matter. The lack of panic, the smell of resignation, the crush of apathy – all points to a market ready to trade even lower as good news and bold actions carry less weight than the stale positions of hope and last year’s thinking drive the tape. All this leads many to look up the difference between a recession and a depression. The good news is depression is undefined we’ll just know it when we get there. Does the MSCI world stock index dropping 14 of the last 15 days suggest we are there? Probably not yet as we need to have higher unemployment, lower prices and another period of absolute capitulation before anyone would admit to the end.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.2552 1.2634 Close: 1.2572
JPY/USD 97.02 97.77 Close: 97.75
JPY/EUR 122 123.36 Close: 122.8913
USD/GBP 1.3958 1.4208 Close: 1.4037
GBP/EUR 0.8865 0.901 Close: 0.8956
CHF/USD 1.1704 1.1797 Close: 1.1774
CHF/EUR 1.4746 1.4825 Close: 1.4802
USD/AUD 0.629 0.6357 Close: 0.6306
CAD/USD 1.28 1.2918 Close: 1.287
NZD/USD 0.4918 0.4959 Close: 0.4932
How to Achieve Socialism:
http://www.campaignforliberty.com/article.php?view=18
MktMike: could you kindly update the 1937 Chart so we can see where we might be? THX