Primary Count: The indexes are unfolding the last subwaves of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave (5).
Alternate Count: 3 of (5) made its low at 699.7.
I have charted some “ideal” final waves based on trendlines, Fibonnaci targets and the wave structure at the 5 minute level or less. There was a head and shoulders breakdown and the downside target was low to mid 690′s. So not quite there yet on that.
The bottom line is wave 3 of (5) has now expanded 1.276 of Blue 1 of (5) so it is getting there. I still think it has a little ways to go for at least that panic washout bottom. My 2 main indicators the CPC and VIX have started to move to where I expect them to go but they are not quite there yet. I am looking for a VIX reading higher than wave 1 of (5) which was 57.36. VIX reached 53.25 today. So its getting closer to a panic wave 3 bottom.
Expect a violent rally to the upside when Minor wave 3 finally does end.
Do you consider a count where green [i] and [ii] would be where you now have [iii] and [iv] instead, and the current [i] & [ii] would be part of smaller wave (it’s not that long/large bounce) would make this even scarier move down in lenght and I’m not quite willing to believe in it, but I could see the chart that way, is there some reason it couldn’t be?
Thx DanEric…I would love to see an update of the 1937 chart in comparison to where we ended today…anyone else?
Anyone able to get on elliottwave.com?
No. Too crowded. They need to upgrade their servers
I’m going to email them if/when I can get in. I’ll tell them that I understand that they’ve added a large number of new subscribers and I’m happy for them, however if I can’t access a site that I’m paying for I’ll cancel my subscription. I’ll give them until the end of March to improve their service.
I’d suggest that others also contact them.
This is the first time I’ve ever experienced the problem, you’ve seen it before?
Yes, but not this bad. In the past few weeks I’ve tried to get to the Mon-Wed-Fri updates and would get error web pages, or server busy or simply not able to connect.
Yes recently I have had problems on the short term update nights. However, this is just stupid now. I still cannot even think of getting in.
I agree I wont pay for a service if I have to wait all night to access it…
It would be nice to see the update before A/H’s closes…..
Hi, Daneric, according to your count, green [iii] is roughly a 95-point drop; so then [v] can only drop to 685 at the max because [v] should not be longer than [iii] right? That means we are fairly close to being done with (v) of [v] of wave 3?
The only rule is a wave 3 cannot be the shortest. Wave 5 can in fact be longer than wave 3.
I too am pissed about EWI’s server. We are supposed to have those updates around 4 PM. It is their problem not ours. I already have a problem with them constantly trying to sell me overpriced merchandise.
Here is the email address for EWI… I just emailed them complaining about their lack of connectivity.
customerservice@elliottwave.com
Hi Dan – Thanks so much for the analysis. Given that the VIX has yet to reach levels seen in minor wave 1 and that the slope of decline in the last couple days has only gotten steeper, have you considered that we may have yet to complete [iii] of 3 of (5)? Curious if anyone has a good argument against the idea of this extended [iii]…
3/3/09: Math fans to celebrate Square Root Day
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090303/ap_on_fe_st/odd_square_root_day
Well I finally got into EWI and there is no update for today, it’s still Friday’s. Although on their main page they say there is one. I’m pissed.
Thank’s Daneric. Start a blog and I would be a paid subscriber immediately.
I dumped EWI 2 months ago. I even tried the flash services for a 2 month trial thinking I would let the experts call the shots for me. Guess what. Intermediate service kept missing the intermediate moves. The ST service had a lot of whipsaws. One buy reco came out and as soon as I had placed my order, within minutes if not seconds, a sell reco was issued. Now that is short-term. Currently having nice gains w/ Daneric, Kenny and Cobra combo.
Hi Daneric – I wanted to ask about EW in multi-year time frame…
As I understand, big red waves (1)-(5) on your $SPX chart that started in Nov/Dec 2008 should coplete soon (soon in time).
What should happen later? Some multi-month (or a year) wave up? Are all red waves (1)-(5) just first part “I” of a big-big wave down, then “II” up will come, and then another “III” down, and so on… If so, what could be the target for “II” wave up, and “III” wave down?
Again, EWI brings up the possibility that we are in wave 3 circle not wave 1 circle. What would the count look like if that were true? Would the decline from 2000 to 2002 be wave one then wave 2 from 2003 to 2007? If so, where’s our ABC from the 2000 top? Thanks for the ideas on this one, I can’t seem to make that count work.