Today we stepped back, and looked at how the bears managed to break the novemeber lows, and are now aiming lower for what could be a potential capitulation bottom (crash). We step back, and look at many signs that tell us that the next short term bottom could be somewhere between 60-65$, and that the true bottom will either be in the 50-55 $ range or could go as low as the 40-43$ range. A lot of signs indicate that we have broken down, as the volume spiked up today. We look at the VIX in order to understand where we’re headed, and where we would see a good equity buying opportunity. Unless this market is saved by the government this weekend, it looks like we’ll gap down pretty quickly and potentially bottom in late march, early april at levels that even most bears could never have believed possible. We look also at elliot wave, and look at ratios of waves to predict a possible end for subwave3 of wave 5.
idan, you’re a badass. nuff said. my only point of contention is how low we go with 5 of 5 which is like throwing darts in the dark. i’m still looking at the 600s to end it, though 400-500 wouldn’t surprise
The slogan for next week should be, “caveat emptor”
Thanks, Idan! You saved me a lot of typing in an effort to tell my trading buddies and even a few frightened IRA holders why 500 or even 440 is a distinct possibility in the near future. I don’t know how any bulls can still be around after they have compared the current market action with the accelerating plunges of Oct and Nov. However, that was the worst couple of months in all 50+ years of my downloaded S&P data, so most people probably didn’t believe it until it happened. They still may not comprehend it fully; even less that it can happen again so soon. Even a guy like me has a tough time, and I was finding lots of ways to lose money starting about 45 years ago in the aftermath of the DJIA’s intraday 1000+ top, when the Dow went FIFTEEN YEARS with 1000 sitting on the market like a lid:
http://i44.tinypic.com/deb51i.gif
This happened almost two Kondratieff cycles back, and included the most dangerous phase of the Cold War and the beginning of the Viet Nam War. One cycle later, gold and silver were $800 and $50, interest rates were around 20%, and the hostage crisis in Iran was unfolding. One cycle earlier was World War 2. Another cycle back was World War 1. The previous cycle started with economic upheval and war with Spain. The cycle before that started with the Franco-Prussian war and the panic of 1873. Back one more cycle were revolutionary uphevals in Europe and the Irish Potato Famine.
Giuven what has been happening every 22 years or so, it might not be a good idea to look for Happy Days to be Here Again right away. What the market is doing now, as extreme as it may seem now, could be just the beginning.
Thanks Ivan–have been following your posts for past several months after escaping my RE development career last August (25 yrs.!). Your knowledge and intellect is much appreciated.
Worth reading.
Dow possible drop to 2965
S$P worst case to 274
Published in German, annotations in English.
http://www.internetwertpapiere.at/notesdat/iwp/RVSn4cContainer.nsf/FilesURL/2BF4894301BC45BCC1256F2D004DE61E/$File/indizes.pdf
Worth reading.
German but english annotations
Dow worse case 2969
S+P wc 275
http://www.internetwertpapiere.at/notesdat/iwp/RVSn4cContainer.nsf/FilesURL/2BF4894301BC45BCC1256F2D004DE61E/$File/indizes.pdf
Hat Raiffeisen in Österreich nicht auch so seine Schwulitäten, etwa mit Geschäften in den ehem. Ostblockländern, oder bin ich da vielleicht falsch informiert? Nicht aber zu sagen, daß an dem Bericht was auszusetzen ist, ganz in Gegenteil eigentlich.
Idan,
ok.. normally you talk fairly speedy… but this time wow! i’m not that excited about a crash despite being 98% short since pulling most my hedge off when i realised upside was getting tons of resistance on Friday.
the thought the market will crash makes me feel pukey. i want a slow and steady slide so i can keep picking off decliners. guess i’ll have to hone my bottoming chart deciphering skills because all im good at right now is picking toppy looking stocks. maybe i’ll just play the indices for upside fun…. im getting very tired.
anyone else feeling as worn out as i am despite making a nice profit in this horrid market? must be more tiring earning on declining prices than the other way around.
good luck trading! im going to sleep in on Monday so i don’t have to watch
Man you don’t know how tired i am, but luckly i’m taking a week break starting friday of next week, so i’ll reenergize myself. That being said… I had to reshoot my video 3 times, cuz i needed to fit so much in 10 minutes on youtube. That’s why I spoke so fast, in real life i don’t speak that way.
best,
Idan Koren
Fast talk or no Idan you’re hands down appreciated. Great video.