4:43pm
Well the bulls finally gave up, and the bears, which we knew were going to win eventually, won. Now the question is how low do we go? I’ll talk about that in my video… should be out by 8 pm.
3:18pm
MAJOR inverse head and shoulders on VIX$ on the 10 minute over the past 4 days. Citigroup down close to 50%, BAC down 25%
3:10pm
Words of widom: If you have been short like I have from 87$ on the SPY… taking some profits off today would be very smart.
2:44pm
Bears confirm a 10 minute candle break of the 20 SMA… bulls trying to rally off of the 74.50$ lows, but so far can’t seem to do much, even though the volume is strong. A failed attempt could yield further selling. However if this candle does manage to hold ground, then we might get a rally towards the end of the day.
1:37pm
There is a strong H&S forming for the intraday. With a potentially neckline forming at 74.40$, we might be building the right shoulder now.
11:42am
Bulls gained some volume to the upside which would break the MA pattern from forming, and is now testing the 20 SMA 10 minute.
11:20am
Bear flag is forming which will complete MA pattern.
11:13am
Potential head and shoulders forming on SPY 5 min.
11:02am
Here are potential resistances as fibonacci retracements maybe very important here.
10:55am
Hey guys, the market finally broke down to new lows on horrible GDP news. But managed to bounce back and retrace. This move however, is only a gap filler move, and it looks like the bears will get the benefit of the doubt here as they will pile in very soon. Short positions here look really attractive as long as you got a nice stop. I do believe there is a crash scenario waiting to happen here. The bulls are really trying to hold on to the double bottom, but we are slowly moving below it, and now are testing it as resistance.
Q’s still fairly flat
6th FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 03:12:03 PM EST:
Exit all positions except for 1 (runner)
Last price == 737.50.
Please adjust stops down to 749.00 else exit here and be done for the day.
GREAT DAY OMNIACS!
See Bear Mo! …. we can get half way there….all ya need is a wo-power….
Is 734 a weak/strong S level?
i don’t think it’s very strong. i’m projecting a really quick bounce at 734 possibly, but we might just tear through it and head lower. the 1 of the 1 of 5 wave was 16 pts, so i project this to be 16 pts before any decent retraces. so we’ll at least hit 734, then might retrace back to 740s one last time…
734 probably won’t put up much of a fight after that…we’ll see the 3 of 5, which will probably cut like a knife…
Taking profits. Leaving 10% just in case Fear Factor kicks in. Doubt it. Boarding time. Have a great weekend all.
srs finally rollin
73.66 is the PPI support line for the 2min SPY. If we stop there, we are sitting on a double bottom for today’s action. Will that effect your decision to hold over the weekend?
i don’t trust any gap action going into monday. i’m getting out and playing the intraday monday when we have more data
Idan (above) is suggesting to take some profits if you are short.
idan is probably right, since we’ve hit this area…to keep the bear flag intact, we’ll probably not hit 734 exactly, and we might head up 10 pts or so before the big drop.
it’s up to you guys if you want to pull profits now, but there is a chance we could just tear through 734…
Idan says that there is a major inverse H&S forming on the VIX$ 10 min over the last 4 Days. Inverse means it’s heading up. That means the market should be heading down.
I played it safe and took profits on my March options.
Plan to hold April and June options shorts over the weekend..
very good play.
Pivot, R, and day trendline break,,back to lows, maybe
s not r
Very nice Idan
If that vix IH&S breaks to the upside Richard will finally have his fear
all down indicators looking really good to close this thing out on a low. maybe one more pullback according to the 10m which may be what woo’s referencing
prechter on tv
Nice.
Prechter on CNBS
let us know what he says
In wave 5. Wave 5′s on an intermediate wave often decline on low volume . . . so he
is not suprised by the low volume. He expects a sharp rebound after completion
of wave 5. Does not anticipate a “buy” stock signal for some time (next year or two).
Shanky you are as quiet as the “cat that ate the canary”. I bet that canary is quite tasty. Congratulations, again.
aw crap i’m starting to feel now we gap down huge on monday….what to do….what to do
split your bet.
sounds too sensible for me :p
If the market makers beleived in a rally on Monday, then C should have retraced in the last hour today.
However, if the market is going to gap down on Monday, then it has to make it back up today to about 746…IMO. I believe we are going to see a sell off in the final 30 minutes to bring SP to 732. That would leave for a flat or up open on Monday morning….not that it would last long.
Agreed. AIG earnings (and the debate over additional capital injection into AIG) could
make Monday interesting.
Hail to the Chief!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC837oh98_Y
so what did he say? didn’t catch him
see 12
I’m out of SRS. Getting outside to start the rest of my day.
See you next Monday. I wouldn’t stay short thru the weekend. Too many variables AKA bunnies in the fed-hat as per my earlier post.
cheers
alright i’m going to get lunch. bbl.
What’s happening this weekend?
xlf testing a descending triangle upper channel – prob a throwover and about to drop like a rock
Idan – I know in the past you have said you have C stock with covered puts in case it crashed. Just curious if you still plan on holding Citi or are you going to exercise the puts.
I am holding the Puts and the stock through this weekend. I might take profits on the PUTS on monday if the fear remains. The stock is very undevalued in comparison to the prefered stock that’s at 3.25$.. so this should be intresting to see.
covered a few positions that were up more than 30% .. .this was not the WOW day
this is getting ridiculous. just get it over with already
sweet
7th FLASH UPDATE
S&P 500 & EMINI 03:40:12 PM EST:
Exit all trades here at market
Last print = 737.00
Be sure to cancel your stops.
Nice Trading OMNIACS!
man…idk about this one guys…i’m not holding over the weekend
Thanks for posting
no prob
I’ve been out most of the day today working on the insurance side of the business. Those are the big paychecks. Closed my USO from yesterday at 16% gain. Clients don’t understand how I do it when the market is tanking. They think I am smart. LMFAO.
Not in any positions. We’re it wave 5. I’ll have charts updated by monday am and maybe something tasty to blog on. Have a great weekend. Congrats to all the winners out there. At the rate the board is going if you’re not trading in an IRA our st gains taxes will put a dent in paying off this stimulus bill.
See you Monday.
We’re in wave 5 – it should read.
The USO looks like it is setting up nice.
I took gains at resistance for a client. That does not mean I don’t rec not remaining in it. 16% in 24hrs was just to much not to punch out of.
E-mini 1 minute chart just completed a H&S top with a nice move thru the neckline. Left shoulder wider than right, but the pattern is parked at the top of that bear flag that has been building all day. Target is about 730. However, a bounce up from 735 to 740ish and back down to might be building us a second set of shoulders and a new neckline with a target of 715.
This sequence is much like the Mid-October and Mid-November runs right straight down the lower Bollinger Band. Bottoms of waves (1) (3) and (5) should line up, also, within (5) 1, 3, and 5 might line up. Dunno where I would place every wave at the moment (and I will defer to colleagues here who are better at it), but the last few minutes of market action could be pretty wild, and a close that is clearly below the 741 Nov bottom should keep us bears roaring and well-fed into next week. I am probably holding over the weekend even that part of FAZ that I could sell now (the buy at 39.30 has long since settled but not my recent buys in the 50′s and then 40s at yesterday’s FAZ bottom). Even if I get zinged on paper, the day will still come that I will be happy not to have sold out here. FAZ makes triple digits sooner or later, and the first digit might be >1. We just gotta be careful here in case the government or the SEC or other vermin decide too much is falling apart too fast, and screw us, but overall, they are trying to pee up a firehose, so their options are limited.
my sentiments exactly.
covered some positions up over 30% and riding others that have amazing bids well above where i bought in but the options are illiquid as they are out to July.
im feeling lucky… only call i have is DOW CHEM and short gold as a hedge also.
Idan/Shanky or any of the Gurus out there. Did you guys see the Put call ratio? I see a huge spike on mine all the way to 3.17 and now down to 0.95. I am very new to TA so could you please comment on that
TIA
Ric-perm & I have been emailing about CPC — one problem is that it is losing some of its predictive power because of so much trading in puts of inverse ETFs. I am now preferring $BPSPX:$VIX as a hybrid market indicator where I used to use $BPSPX:$CPC. Very astute of you to notice.
Thanks Uner!!! Point taken. I will take your recommendation and populate the charts. Have a great weekend!!
link to live chart. note that all indicators seem to have additional downside to come:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX:$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48571276222&a=161840578&listNum=-2
Dude!! YOU DA BEST!!! Thanks man !! I got em saved in my charts.
You can see both hybrid indicators $BPSPX:$VIX and $BPSPX:$CPC on the last chart added to this post on the Social blog:
http://stocktock.ning.com/profiles/blogs/things-may-well-be-worse-than
Observe that these indicators projected exactly what is happening now.
DONT HOLD INTO THIS WEEKEND….too many variables. Uptick rule is in play now
where did you hear the uptick rule is in play now ?
link?
uptick will not change much. if people long the market wanted to hold over the weekend we would have seen a pile in at the end of day..not a sell-off.
will sleep well. . im not involved in any 3x ETFs or the general indices.
Huge volume spike at the close.
that last 5 minutes was a sick sell
im up $$ today plus alot of my JULY PUT QUOTES look like this and better:
my cost:1.35 0.00 (0.00%) BID 1.60 ASK 1.69 0 U.S. VOLUME: 0
interesting in deedy pop.
Neckline at 735 on e-mini negated by rebound to backtest neckline at 740, but a move to target at 730 will complete a neckline at 735 that has a target of 720. That in turn could generate a third neckline at 730 with a target of 710. Bears enjoy the weekend if that happens.
Thanks for all of your posts just wondering if you watch currencies much. I see the yen looks like it might have put in a bottom, which also does not bode well for the indexes.
Sorry, as the levered ETFs have become available, I concentrate on them. fewer variables, no single-company or single-commodity or single-currency DD or risks, just pure TA and LOTS of leverage without margin or options.
VOLUME has been increasing all week… as we decline.. this helps confirm the trend. if this is the end of month rally… yikers. we will rally starting about a week before OPEX im thinking… just like last month.
what a good day =) see you guys next week.
All cash going into the weekend. That sell off convinced me that Monday would be unpredictable. I even sold my GLD!
we are getting close to the bottom of this….just not the way i thought we would.. zero fear.
take a look at a chart of TWM … inverse Russels. the RSI is about to double top at 70… maybe a day or two more of selling… then consolidate… then move up into opex week
that is the calendar im going to try and follow. if have some IWM puts that i will sell when TWM double tops at 70. will post a chart in social photos of TWM
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?twm
Last-second trading pushed e-mini above 741 Nov bottom as close for day and week and month. How very convenient not to have newscasters talkling about something so inconveniently uncomfortable as would have otherwise been burning up the news wires. I am not a consp[iracy theorist, but this is a clear instance of your tax dollars at work. In a way, I am happy to have the crash happen in slower motion, because TPTB might have otherwise seen themselves compelled to get more active if S&P closed below 700 today.
OOOPS — spoke (typed) too soon –
735 CLOSE!!!!
NEW 12+-yr low intraday and close for day, week, and month!!!
If that is not all over the news, somebody is sitting on it.
No new neckline at 735ish, or doubtful (I will try to draw one and post it on Social), but no matter. The bears won this one big, maybe too big if this stirs up too many whorenets.
Whores nests? On Wall Street?
WhoreNETS, as in hornets. But nests is okay too.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.URHkYzjHwE
“. . . S&P 500 Drops to 12-Year Low . . .”
Neckline looks better now.
Went long 30 min before close hoping for rally. Well, my ask almost got him. Carry over weekend. Will sleep well knowing that I’m not short America:) LOL
Anyways, looks like double bottom is in, should be nice bounce at open. Plus, Richards theory of opposite close/open should help the cause. Good weekend!
hope the market lets you out alive Monday morning….you’ve got guts…
This is NOT a double bottom! The old bottom was not only taken out, it failed to support, especially at the end, when a second set of shoulders and a second neckline formed on a H&S with a target about 30 points below the old bottom. Headlines (I posted one with a link) are already shrieking about the S&P making a new 12-year low. This was not just an intraday spike of the old bottom; it is a new low closing price for a day, a week, and a month.
If by “double bottom,” you mean the two low points reached today, you might notice that at the closing, prices were rocketing downwardand had not made anything resembling a U or V or W — the plunge is still in progress and closed at the low of the segment, stopped only by the closing bell. After hours, SPY continued downward to close even lower than its 4pm EST close.
S&P didn’t bottom today at the end — it just ran out of time to go lower.