3:23pm
Market might be breaking down here on the 61.8% retracement. I do expect some bounce, but once it’s broken, the market is deciding to basically shoot to new lows.
2:57pm
If you are playing a short as an intraday trade, i’d take profits at the 61.8% retracement, at 75.85$
2:43pm
Market testing intraday support, a break of that, will yeild a huge head and shoulders pattern with the peak at today’s and yesterday’s high and the right shoulder being the last hour of trading (using 5 minute chart SPY).
1:12pm
Market breaking that 3 day support that i showed you guys in my graph. However in order for the 60 minute inverse head and shoulders to fall apart we have to break teh 61.8% retracement of the day that the SPY went up 4%, it sits at 75.80$.
12:19pm
Possible head and shoulders forming on the SPY for the intrday. Can be best seen on the 1 minute SPY.
10:08am
I will have to step out for most of the day, but keep in mind that once this ascending support breaks, we ended with consolidation and are moving lower.
9:30am
Market is opening 1% higher as new catalysts arrive for the bulls. Obama is proposing a fresh 750 billion dollars of aid to the financial industry. Government might buy a stake of 40% of citi. But lets not forget that jobless claims was still horrible and that once these catalysts die off, we’ll be back down in the weekly term. First resistance will be yesterdays high which is 78.30$ for a double top.
10m pks oversold
how much is the volumen now?
what to do … what to do..
im up quite a bit here… they going to gap this up tomorrow or what?
yep going back up you always say EOM!!! end of month rally
why is ther a gap?
take the $. tomorrow’s a new game.
In this environment, too much can change in 2 hours, let alone 18 hours, right (?) I left for a doc appointment at 11:00am, come back and this market has completely turned in just a few hours……it’s freakin’ Bipolar!
60m looks really weak. I’m gonna let it all run. If 4 is over, really no sence in getting out.
Shanky ,
im with you. the dog crap im loaded up with failed to rally when we rallied. only thing i lost money on was my stupid TNA hedge… but that was pennies.
guess i just hold on to it. they need to run this back up to fill that gap in the chart around the announcement and then down we go?
gamble gamble.
Sit on the shorts. We’ve only just begun iii of 5 of 3.
That comment is pure bluster. It is IMPOSSIBLE for you to know that.
same as any other comment… nothing more than personal predictions
Look at my post above. Trust the charts and the govt to keep screwing things up.
oh i agree with you… just commenting on how everything that comes out of anyones mouth is essentially an educated guess.
some more educated than others but still just predictions none the less
No it isn’t. Comments based on charts and probability is not in any way the same thing as a comment based on an opinion. That’s why the creed of this site is “We trust the charts, not opinions”.
It’s the whole point of this site.
and whos to say thats not his interpretation of a chart hes looking at.
and seriously… half of the posts daily here are opinions. no sense in picking just one to call out.
Fair enough. Too much coffee.
The waves down from 779 this morning have been impulsive and countable using an elliott oscillator on 1min time frame. The bump up from 1:10 to 2:20 this PM were a 38% retrace of wave 1 down. I sold a fraction of my shorts at the btm and bought back in at the retrace. If you play EW and fibs like I do, a gap down tomorrow is a likely scenario.
Yes it’s speculation, but that’s what this site is all about. I’m 100% short since yesterday’s high and staying there, except to play high probability bumps.
Actually that’s good stuff. I was looking at the Elliott Osc on the longer wave from Feb 9 but couldn’t get a good read on the subwaves so I didn’t persue it.
A mistake I’ve made before in not trusting my count and refusing to go short as the wave down was just beginning because it’s counter-intuitive to short after what looks like a big drop already. It’s always a tough call, good luck to everyone.
Idan’s posts (thank you – comforting for me with a T+3 account)
3:23pm
Market might be breaking down here on the 61.8% retracement. I do expect some bounce, but once it’s broken, the market is deciding to basically shoot to new lows.
2:57pm
If you are playing a short as an intraday trade, i’d take profits at the 61.8% retracement, at 75.85$
TNA at lows… anyone take it?
REALLY tempted! Just don’t want to get stuck if we make the break for the new lows. How low do you think it can go? Much lower if we go to S&P 600 I’m sure.
closing the SRS picked up w/ Valerie at 69.xx – nice play
im naked short at this point.. when we rested 765 i took my hedge off and added puts in USB at the bank announcement. im close to fully loaded… maybe we still get a rally but the trend line is clearly broken. and thier is a gap in the middle of the intraday chart
we have to get back up to 763 to fill that sucker at least.
let’s have a nice last half hour rush back up to take this oversold condition off so we can sleep well knowing that the market heads lower soon. but, everything is priced in.
yeah…the main trend line is completely broken…
however, we’re really oversold and at the bottom of the BB. it’s got a lot of work to go higher, but i’ve seen crazier things. if it goes higher, i’ll be adding to my shorts.
i’d like to add to my shorts if we head higher but i’m pot commited now.
most of my positions were taken at the peak monday or sooner. some are months old.
Anyone on education stock – puts – APOL, CECO etc? What is your take after today’s fall.
There’s news going on with possible merger between APOL and CECO as well as the change in lending strategy with the O’B admin. Do some reading- to long to post here.
I still dont see any Fear in the market….. There has to be something else going on!!! Oh well wait for tomorrow.
I don’t think I’ll exit any shorts and will add on any weakness in them. If this is 5 i want my money’s worth.
looks like a 31.8 retrace completed on that hefty move lower… maybe more downside before the day ends here.
760 is the 50% retrace
looks like they are trying to time the 50% retrace at 760 with the market close.. that would keep some bulls in and maybe some bears covering.
Interesting way of looking at the situation.
ok,, never mind that… we retraced 32% and then mailed any one short this market a check.
have to say this. its scary being short at this level. however, we are above where we were in November and things are much worse than expected and it appears the Government won’t be able to do much about it … so why should the market not head lower?
the market rallied and i was up over 2% in my short positions… .so you can imagine once we turned south. see what happens tomorrow.
i do want to make a note that EWT states the if 2 is simple then 4 will be complicated and v/v. 2 was a really easy ABC. This one could drag out and may not have topped out. I am short now and plan on staying that way. this is just a comment for us to ponder.
And, according to Mr. Prechter, 4s are rarely zizgags.
going to need a magic marker to fill all the gaps in this chart.. and it’s high volume trade:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ubs
Thet fall wound up being a big spike on the 60m chart right thru my lower trendline and will wind up being a big scarry backtest. NOW, will it back test the blue trend line above?
Yup. Max height is 762.
That was to #13.
I say we get a gap up tomorrow but, put a 1% trailing stop on it after the close.
How serious is the with the emo end of the month rally?
Now this is pure speculation. There was some discussion on this site about a month ago when the the low 600 targets for (5) were first being broached. Several people were of the opinion that the PPT would step in around 750 and shore things up, pulling out all stops if they had to to prevent a breach in this market Maginot Line. I have not heard anybody make any mention of that lately but suffice it to say….
We’re there now.
We have been here before. And they did exactly that. Monday we closed at 740, they took us up 200+ points.
HA! Good point. But they may ghave just given up. If they have been investing all the way down I’m sure they may have had a few margin calls to cover. I’m sure they’ll show up again in the 750 – 741 range.
I’m in FAZ pretty good. May be risky, but with all those gaps on the banks – they gotta get filled sooner or later.
Flare on SPY
that bounce from 751 to 758 was a perfect back test of the 20 on most of my 5min charts
Richard, you recommended a trading book a few months ago, that I never had a chance to buy. It was trading……. (I forgot).
Can you plz repost, and if anybody else has any recommended books it would be appreciated. I know s135 recommends reading from websites but I commute 3 – 4 hours a day so book work better 4 me.
Thx in advance and gl all.
Almost fully naked here with the exception of a few long positions I held too long (chiefly Potash, MOS)
Bulkowski- Chart Patterns…funny, smart, easy for beginners.
Thanks you, it’s greatly appreciated. I’ve learned so much about successful trading from you Ladies and Gents.
S135 – which websites do you recommend reading from
see post 28. you are warned. good day all
page 1 that is
Good short call today Shanky. Guess I’ll stay off your case for now. Hey – I have this great griz pic from the Tetons last year. It would look good on your webpage aong with the pup. I’ll email it to you.
Thanks Val.
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 8 idea Val!!
No time to play much today. Travel day tomorrow. Got stopped out on GOOG and UYG, but more than made up for it with AAPL’s dip to get my puts in the money. AAPL has tried five sessions to close above the 50ma and failed. Double down and let it ride.