4:02pm
Market retests lows.. and actually breaks slightly to new lows, and is quickly saved. This however sets up very badly for tomorrow’s trading, which might give us the old 760$ level on the S&P. I left my short trades on.
12:21pm
1 minute breaks 20 SMA.
12:14pm
20 SMA 1 minute on the SPY forming beautiful resistance everytime it hits. We keep forming bear flags and then breaking down, it’s a very sustainable type of selloff. XLF breaking to new lows, this could be the start of a huge sell off if volume picks up. Treasury yields maybe bottoming though, it’s important to look at them in the next 30 minutes to see if there will be a bounce.
12:03pm
Market is now falling to yesterday lows at 78.30-78.60$, expect a possible bounce, this move lower was on relatively low volume. But it wouldn’t surprise me that this volume would increase as we head lower.
11:06 am
market broke oufward of pennant NOT down
10:58 am
1 minute SPY in pennant formation
10:35am
Growth in money supply loosens credit a bit. Helping markets stabalize. Nevertheless, markets can’t seem to hold gains.
12:05 am
Market is continuing to move to new lows, and broke down the pennant. Again we’re looking for a retest of the october lows, or at least a retest of the close of the 60 minute candles that all seemed to line up at 75.60$. Once that level is reached, you might see a short cover rally. I kept my short overnight.
IM ADDING SHORT at the close … hope we make 786
good luck everyone. this is just too bullish not too go short.
flare on spy? 79.3
Is everybody going to swing a LONG for tomorrow? For the Hedge.
I have no balls. I’m staying short. Just like Daddy (permabear).
5m SPX evey time over the last 30m they buy it up and a bearish engulfing follows.
I’m staying short. I gave serious thought to exiting my faz here, but ending on 780 tells me the market wants more time tomorrow to pierce it or after hours. So I have a good sized profit cushion having gotten in @ 41.50 I will take the risk.
arg! short, no long, no short, no long, no short. i’m staying out until we hit a peak and playing the reverse position
my thoughts exactly!
i will join you guys. it’s making me nuts
I’m staying out too. I actually thought about going long this morning but wasn’t confident. I’m glad I stayed out. I’m hoping we just drop down to 600 something and close there in the next week or two so I can go long and put my 401K funds back to work again too for the next major wave up.
TWM….. RSI 62… should top out tomorrow morning on the gap down.
getting exciting. double bottom party starts tomorrow afternoon. get your party hat.
they got me in the nuts today but i will still bring the hat
The question here is whether or not the put writers have enough cash, desire, or momentum to drive prices up, and I do not think they do. Puts are very cheap right now, I think we may see a bad day on options expiration. We closed today right at our lows on all the indices.
Oh and the banks were crushed again.
simply PUT,,, the writers had enough money to hold the market up for days while they bought back the cheap puts. that is the cheapest way im thinking.
now they can UNLEASH THE HOUNDS
if im wrong im wrong. find out tomorrow.
We made a new low in the Dow Today. By whopping $2.
Idan, ballsy leaving your shorts on…I cashed out…too scary. Thanks for the updates etc.
+12% day…the kids will get fed.
See post 168. Low…777.03. No positions held. We bounce in the a.m. higher to scare all the shorts, then we pile in for a Monday masacre. Maybe.
Out of TZA,
Slamming DXO under 2
qqqq eod 2 hr. bull flag outta be worth 29.20 area on any runup in the morning. Then maybe I can make my .29c
I don’t think we will bust to new lows yet. We will get a bounce. Perhaps the most likely scenerio is a large move down to test lows in the S&P but EOD major rally to save DJIA support.
I bought WFC CALLs and I am screwed. In fact at least I hedged it. In fact I gave up on overnighting banks. They are too volatile to trade and they are driven by speculation only. Intraday only!!!! No logic at all
Trend is your friend. There will be no rally in FINS. Day trade only for sure.
Some emotional driving news story must be combined with the morning sell off. and it must also be solved by another hair brain government plan to reverse the sell off.
has anyone noticed this?
lack of news about GM and Chrysler. last week a dead-line loomed and it was all scary and had people all bearish and that deadline was Tuesday. since, no news. interesting . the market has a short memory.
will some news tied to GM and Chrysler be dropped on our laps in the morning before the market opens? will the sell off accompany this news but then be resolved by government action. that is what im thinking. something else could suprise us but im gunning for this.
they are really mixing the action up this OPEX trying to create doubt in the charts. doing a great job. im amazed that im now still holding short when i thought we’d tank this morning at the latest.
good luck trading!
I guess they hired the Steel BK specialists…hammering out the demise of US industry. Sad times.
(I really really wanted to buy a Chevy Volt…oh well)
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, February 19, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Producer Price Index for January rises to +0.8% m/m, -1.0% y/y – better than expected
US Initial Jobless Claims stays at 627K – worse than expected
US Philadelphia Fed Survey falls to -41.3 – much lower than expected
US Leading Indicators for January rise to +0.4% – higher than expected
COMMENTS
That US equity markets closed the day down 1% belies how nasty today really was. The Philly Fed, which many look to as an advanced reading on the US ISM report, posted its lowest reading since 1990, and the employment sub-index posted its worst reading ever. Consistent with an ever-deteriorating labor market, continuing claims came in much worse than expected at nearly 5 million. Toss in the Fitch downgrade of Prudential, GE briefly trading as a single digit name, and continued murmurs of nationalization, and down 1% in SPX suddenly doesn’t seem so bad. And there are optimists out there – Atlanta Fed Lockhart is one of them. He sees “catalysts for the start of a modest recovery.” Where? 1) He expects a reduction in excess inventory. He needs to think harder: a reduction in excess inventory is one thing, albeit a necessary first step, but an expansion of output is another. 2) January home sales were up. He needs to read more closely: home sales were up because of an increase in activity in areas with significant foreclosures. 3) Improving retail sales in January. He needs to remember his Aristotle: one swallow does not make a summer. He also needs to remember an immutable law of accounting: gift cards are tricky. Other optimists will continue to worship ‘momentum’ readings, like our GLI, which again fell to another record low but showed tentative signs of stabilization. And what happens when the second-derivative fails? Perhaps we move on to the third: jerk.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.265 1.2762 Close: 1.2685
JPY/USD 93.48 94.47 Close: 94.41
JPY/EUR 118.43 120.34 Close: 119.7591
USD/GBP 1.427 1.4448 Close: 1.4303
GBP/EUR 0.8793 0.8888 Close: 0.8869
CHF/USD 1.1703 1.1782 Close: 1.1731
CHF/EUR 1.4867 1.4945 Close: 1.4881
USD/AUD 0.6421 0.6523 Close: 0.6453
CAD/USD 1.2467 1.26 Close: 1.2555
NZD/USD 0.5105 0.519 Close: 0.5117
Hey Willie posted something amazing and I confirmed:
GS has a huge unusual volume of CALLs for tomorrow. The numbers are (CALL/PUT ratio):
February – Traded (2516%) Interest (33%) – UAU!!!!
March – Traded (-33.81%) Interest (-48.77%) – normal
April – Traded (127.85%) Interest (-51.62%)
Shorters will be screwed tomorrow
lol, forgot that I put in a 150 purchase of something expensive…sold 200 at the close. Just notice that I was accidentally shorting…made a few more dollars. (Could have been a nightmare…yikes…always double check your orders