3:51pm
Market is showing signs of a triangle. Now even though the major down move before the triangle was in futures trading, this can be interpreted as a pennant triangle formation with a down target of 3.50-4 points on the SPY once it breaks.
3:44pm
Today’s overall move, starting from 10 am, should be viewed as a consolidation move. This may continue tomorrow towards the 80.30 -80.94 level, but the outcome will probably be a huge crash in the next couple of days of higher magnitudes (5-6%). This may coincide with a jobs number on thursday-friday).
3:04pm
Strong up candle in the last 10 minutes, but all these should be viewed as a failed bull attempt until the market is able to push above the 820 line.
1:41pm
Market SPY should form some support at 78.65$. But the stronger support lies at intraday bottom $78.30. Again, we have broken major support around 804-820, and therefore the next move is likely a retest of 743.
12:43pm
Market is now forming a potential right shoulder here for the head and shoulders (MA formation).
12:12pm
Market has retraced most of the resistance lines. The next few lie just about 80$, and i think we should get a potential head and shoulders forming on the 5 minute SPY soon. 38.2% retracement from 2 days ago is 80.30, and the 50% lies at 80.95$.
10:35am
Market keeps going lower, but this market will need to probably consolidate upwards a little before we see more lows. I am piling in slowly with my shorts, and will try to use an averaging method so that i’m swing trading what could be one hell of 2 weeks for this market. For example, the market just retraced yesterdays support, which is now resistance, so i put a small short SPY on.
SPY 1 min chart. Pivot Point Indicator line at 79.61
I think we are all going to be kicking ourselves from not buying DXO at this level…..
does that mean you’re going to buy?
No so far I’m kicking myself for buying HOU.TO at 5.47. For the time meaning… piece of junk. What was I thinking when I’m betting the markets would go down.
No.
If I may add an opinion here. If you look at a 5 minute chart it’s fairly clear that the S&P completed a 5 Wave downward move early this morning at 781. The rest of the day has been the development of an ABC type corrective move as the AB part has completed and now we need to see the “C” Wave up to complete the pattern. If A=C then that would take the S&P up to around 798 by the close.
Thanks for posting. If it turns at 798, thats fine with me. Just as long as it turns.
I have the same count. A failed retest of 800 will give the market a reason to start another five waves down.
Russels are at 424 .. well under the 429 support they were holding. if they lead SPX then SPX is heading lower before heading higher.
Also, it is not unusual in a H&S pattern to go back up near the top of the head before heading lower. we could easily close at 796 and not negate the pattern and simply complete the pattern after hours to 773.50
what a stubborn bear i am.
i like this idea as it appears bullshitish.
sold some TWM here and will take them back at EOD.
me too
I got scared and covered. Don’t know what to do and I hate letting decay become a factor if SKF goes down.
we want 795 on the SP at the close.
What the hell is up with the VIX? i keep getting reading of -2% one minute then down -5% the next. Either way, its started filling the gap from yesterday so its rally time.
We have the 1000 min MA serving as resistance . aka 200ma on the 5m chart. The 250min is serving as support, creating a triangle. Appears to be a double bottom breakout and or ABC move. Target is 795ish.
Richard, what makes you think that we drop overnight? i don’t see it happening unless some really bad news comes out; otherwise the setup for a run up is looking more likely to me as the no more stimulus or housing bailout garbage.
market psychology and the puppet show
oh… and my chart says so.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-feb-projections?context=latest
have to get to bottom of channel. its the rules….. we must play by rules.
Really? When has no more stimulus or housing garbage led to a rally? It’s usually been the opposite, buy the rumor and then sell the shitty plan.
I meant that it usually tanks whenever one of the bozos opens their mouth and we don’t have any bozos opening their mouths for the rest of the week.
financials still too weak . They will bring it down imo
Come on Timmy. Push the button. Mr. President wants a hammer today on the daily. You can do it. Hank showed you how, remember?
what’s your play ?
Do you go overnight?
thx
Lite TNA.
thanks and good luck!
im going the other way.. heavy TWM
however i unloaded half cuz S135 promised a push to the close. now where is it?
get Timmy on the phone… pronto
Gap up.
Gonna get out 20ema cross on the 60m STO Shanky?
our …
In the morning?
desperately seeking 795 for a lower entry point into TWM… better have done the right thing.
Even your buddy TK is saying, “The maket is sick”.
comon…final 10 min short squeeze.. bullshitish close..
I just think it is going to take something special to get us to capitulate. That has me questioning wave three and how it is forming. Will 3.3 be shorter than 3.1?
30m bb20ma and 20ma appear to be about to cross which would lead to a move up. 60m MACD about to get bull cross. I may swing a small long play.
Prices seem to be begging to correct the 2-day drop a bit.
that’s because they are lieing to you ! .. careful here.
Hedging a long for the night, may be a good idea.
Does anyone understand APOL, why is it holding up? This stock really frustrates me.
the team seems to need help from real buyers and short covering. maybe the team will just have to dig deeper and get the bullshitish close down on thier own.
S135 – i think the cross happens in the am. That’s why i may swing a small SSO or something like that. The move up will not be long or extended IMO. It is risky, but that’s what the charts are saying. Any opinion?
I’m on it, in TNA.
I’m in for a long, BGU overnight.
VWAP holding. Upside bias.
50ma is 789.50. A bust through and 10pts.
50ma/10m that is.
potential mini inverse H&S on QQQQ over the past two days. this is also shown, albeit less pronounced on SPY and DIA
can you please post the chart
This market needs to hurry up and make up its mind. Its got 3 minutes.
Long 1,000 SSO.
19.97
long 500 sso with an avg of 21.69
doesnt look like ill reload the position that i took off because the market is failing to lie to us here. it will have to lie to us in the morning by first going up and then rolling over. this eod action does not look right for a gap and run morning.
EOD was a yawner. A bit O D D !!!
Someone playing games huge volume after hours right after the close.
IM STILL SAYING WE TANK TOMORROW sometime early enough so the market can fully recover by days end. hopefully a push up first but cant count on it.
im NUDIE short
good luck trading!
most likely we gap down in my opinion but this un-bullshitish close has the possibility of producing a pop before the drop.
lol… it only took a few minutes after the bell for a squeek in of a few trades to push the dow above the nov21 closing low.
just sold some tza 1.25 higher after hours from were it closed.
Long SSO March 22 calls, DIG 26 calls, short SRS (looks like the 60min is rolling over). Oil and USO have seriously diverged and i’m can’t explain why. Thanks for all your work on the charts Shanky; I’ll keep voting.
why are you not bullish on srs
After hours really moving here, made a new low. Testing trendline and lows now.
I’ve seen it do that before, and then gap up in the morning.
How the hell can anyone believe these talking heads on CNBC. I just watched a guy that looked closer to santa clause than anyone I have ever seen say that he is ready to go long NOW? Can anyone explain
Wow – ES low 776.5 after hrs, but bouncing up.
if this market TANKS TOMORROW and closes above 891 by eod like i think it is going to and then rallies into eod of day FRIDAY:
its definitely a puppet show for the masses.. that is so sad.
891 or 791?
remember that index option expiration is at market OPEN friday… i’m with you, but looking for a v-bottom spike around 2:30/3 tomorrow tagging 740 and then a huge spike up in the last hour and after hours for a high open
rick your plan is similar to 9/18 also opex week. I remember watching SKF 120P went from 2 to 38 between thursday and Friday am. They banned short selling in financials on that Friday expiration. This time we might have a dead cat bounce but nothing like a huge gap down like SKF did on 9/19
Good day. Nice $$$$ in the first half-hour dump. Totally fine holding short overnight. AAPL slipped nicely at EOD. T and COP dipped and still below the 50 ma. We shall see.
FL.. we are in goood goood shape short… have no fear!
TWM is at days high after hours and broke $80 resistance $80.90 after hours. im glad i only sold half and im sure ill regret it in the morning. oh well. maybe get lucky bounce in the morning but i highly doubt it.
Option pain for SP500 is 850. The HOUSE (Wall Street) will manipulate the market for sure. I bet a kiss of death in this range. Also it was the last support (now resistance).
i think we will be lucky to see 820′s just be glad for that! S135 said option pain has failed for the last 4 times. What makes this week lucky or any different.
A quick poll what will be the highest price we will see on the S&P 500 for thursday or friday??
830-840 791 thursday 835 friday
Some Options numbers for SPY, up to today (Call/Put ratio):
Month Traded Interest
February -0.14% -41.71%
March -11.58% -72.78%