I would like to see individual charts and try to understand where S&P 500 may be headed. This is what I found.
Here is a snapshot of top 16 stocks in S&P 500; These stocks account for 29.22% of S&P 500.
To me, CVX, GE, T, PG and XOM look broken. Other don’t look that healthy. This could mean, at a minimum we will retest Nov lows for S&P 500.
CMBX spreads are on a tear.
credit markets are more rational in their assesment of risk and reward in my opinion
also…so much of the s and p financial sector has already been lost that its weighting is now small…for us to see significantly lower …we will have to see other market segments (such as xom etc.) collapse…this would be part of the last leg…playing out as analysts can no long deny upcoming earnings are significantly below expectations…and really unsure when they will they will recover…
i think this unknowing of how long to recover earnings could end up in a market like japan’s that grinds sideways and lower for a decade…not sure what to invest in at that point other than items exportable to other countries that are inflation resistant (ie. coal, wheat)
an important and practical point to remember with the bond markets, is that the ‘product disclosure statements’ that accompany every new issue disclose an enormous amount more in terms of detail about the balance sheet and operations of the companies seeking to raise funds – more information than is commonly seen in SEC filings or which may accompany a standard rights issue – so the buyers of debt/bonds get the best possible picture, and the information provided is often not allowed to be publicly disclosed to the rest of us – in other words, the equity market does not automatically or often receive the same information, so placing equity participants at a disadvantage – thus a simple reason why the bond guys tend to lead the pack – they are better informed – simple as that…
I really liked your blog! I will be linking back to you.