7:38 pm (16th)
Market will probably see more lows in the next couple of weeks, as we continue what I believe is subwave 3, of wave 5 of this bear market. We should be testing the 804 support when the market trades. My guess, is that so many people are bearish, that the 804 support, will form a nice bear flag, and we have to use fibonacci retracements at that point to look at possible short positions. If you look at the charts, we had a massive short squeeze Thursday in the last hour of trading. That’s when most of the shorts just covered, and then we got a nice short pile in on Friday. The pile in on Friday was no where close in magnitude to the one on Thursday, which means that more shorts are still waiting to pile in. My guess, is that they will wait for a nice small consolidation move up and then pile in.
If you look at the image above, you will see that we broke down already in the pennant on thursday only to be saved later that day by a short squeeze. Nevertheless, that break means we have started the new wave lower. Depending on where we open tomorrow, either the 81.30$ SUPPORT or the 80.50$ support from (3 weeks ago) will provide a nice bear flag, in which you should draw a fibonacci retracement from top 87.50$ to bottom, 80.50$ or 81.30$, and start piling in your shorts around the 38.2% retracement. Or if you’re a higher risk trader (which I am), I would use a 38.2%, or 50% retracement from the high of 84.27$, to the low of 80.50$, 81.30$, because the market might not reach the 38.2% retracement of this full move lower.
Eventually, the market will break the 800 level, leaving us with the lows of 75.60$ and 74.34$.
You can see how I counted my elliot wave, by looking at the following. I know i count things little differently (i don’t like A,B,C things), but in the end, it’s all about 3 or 5 wave moves,
and so I just used teh same notation for everything.
he said this is the begining of the END…at least he being honest
XLF under $8. New all time LOW Joe.
782……..782…….782
treat me right.
oh boy, xlf hits the all time low. here we go
Haha here we go again. PPT time.
nah… that was actually some real news
BAC makes a 400mil tarp repayment
hmmmm…..did DIG just do a bullish crossover?
….and ppt says “suck on it!”
have my finger on TWM … loading up.
comon… push higher. you can do it.
oh my….now like that is not obvious…..
wow…I might just sell Oil today too.
This will give us another hammer and chance to rally. I think this one may last since people have a reason for the markets rising. Oh the bill passed that means we can rally now.
There is quite a bit of distance to go in order for the market to make a proper hammer on the daily….Or what time frame were you referring to?
I was assuming we would rally like we did on Thursday. I was right about that one. But this one faked me out. I apologize for the assumptions.
we’re primed for pure evil i tells ya, pure evil
50ma/10m is 804.33.
That looks like the spot we will EOD…at the most.
did the DJIA hit the Nov Low?
The tree represents my hope for our world right now.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1f6_1233641924
that was very funny.
Like the last 2:00 min in basketball. The last half hour is all that counts.
so well orchestrated. evil close above 800 still possible. get everyone all bullish.
richard
are you adding to your shorts with the market closing above 800
you bet i am. bullish close is a sign of pure evil at work. im not adding
if we stay below 800. patienly waiting.
It’s funny how they started this assault at exactly 3:30:)
Gold and oil do not follow this rally.
oil just completely flat. … the SP is actuall flat.
i took 200 more TWM but im going to add more if we close above 800
i tell ya, the rally protection team will not go down easy today. it’s the battle for 800
so much for the PPT
can’t hold 800
Lovin how the “good banks” dragged UYG XLF down all day. GS MS
lesson of market 101
the initial reaction is usually not the said action. if news is released and the first reaction is down expect the action to be up and vice versa. not always true but usually.
took more TWM at 76.36 but hope we close above 800. otherwise im gonna be scared
last 10 minutes squeeze?
want them to get this above 800 or get down to 782… don’t like this spot. too ambiguous.
I am starting to walk a stop up on my FAZ position , I’m not to happy about 790 area as a place to end the day.
For those talking about the North American Union earlier, I’d recommend watching Endgame by Alex Jones. Search it in Google and watch it for free. He’s a little extreme, but even if the stuff he says if half true then it’s scary as hell.
Down with the U.S. Dollar. Amero anyone?
He’s extreme, but somewhere in there is a lot of truth.
Im all for the Amero. In fact, we need an Eartho. All debts must be paid in Earthos from now on!
i think the last 10 today will be a work of art. we could quite possibly close at 800.1
I’m gonna create the NEW WORLD ORDER mutual fund. Motto, “If you can’t beat ‘em, join em!”
Holding puts overnight. May not see 800 again for a while. UYG at new low
VIX a poppin. 50 EOD?
Over the 50dma, I’m happy.
We’ll most likely see 800 by Fridays close.
i think you will see 830 – 850 by Friday. gonna be amazing!
Definitely, I agree. When we hit 740/750 tomorrow or Thursday it will be a great long opportunity.
Hey – wasn’t Feb 17th one of those astro cycle dates? Where did that guy go anyway?
And GR=the flare guy
Feb 19th is.
McHugh’s Phi mate turn date is tomorrow Feb 18.
dont believe PPT is involved at these levels. they are involved protecting low points or keeping new low points from gettting out of hand. doubt they protect 800. that is some other puppet string action at work there.
Decided to hell with it , my original plan to hold my FAZ till 750 was based on sound logic. There is no reason to second guess it. Holding for now even if I have to watch the market gap up tomorrow.
if you are afraid of it gapping up… probably gapping down. that is the emotion they want to stir. the emotion they stir in me is usually the opposite of the action to come. at eod i was fearing a bursting rally so i added TWM.
no guaranteed but that guage is more times right than wrong.
good luck trading!
rally protection team wins. i dumped a lot at eod, will wait for more data before reloading
up a $1.30 on TWM i just took… too bad we couldnt break 800 clean or i woulda went nuts on it…… watching for 782 after hours and many of us will be smiling.
will post another chart of my updated DOUBLE BOTTOM marketing plan pattern.
hope everyone had a fun day despite the boring action.
Post #137 – What do I win (this time)?
Nice call again
(sorry I don’t have a prize for you)
you dont win. its the best guess under the closing price. just like price is right! LOL.. im the winner. make the rules as you go along is the best bet of all
Are you from the government?
The tree represents the Obama plan. Beautiful, strong and peaceful – worthless.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=1f6_1233641924
I’ll be posting this tree vid a lot I think.
DOW closed 0.45 points higher than Nov closing low. Incredible coincidence
had support for Russels at 425 and it closed at 428… the Dow gets down that low and the other indices stay up. what a confusing mess. anyone wondering how the indices have become so seperated as of late.
After hours market is Up/Down?
Down a tiny bit.
the new levels from that LARGE post of mine earlier today.
http://tinypic.com/usermedia.php?uo=lS6XfrN7dYAhEpqSnn1Yfg%3D%3D
might as well have been k-r-y-p-t-o-n-i-t-e
Live and learn. Tomorrow is another day
this works better
http://i43.tinypic.com/255s5sl.jpg
Well I’m all cash for my ski holiday. Sold FAZ for 60, SRS for 77.5. Hope I can get back in when I’m back.
Bullish notes on Apollo
http://leapsinvestor.com/market-news/education-companies-may-see-bright-future-274/
I am a professor, undergraduate coordinator at a major university which gives real degrees. We are expected to get trickle down enrollment increases – a la Ivy league recruits opting for 1st tier state utys, 1st tier state school rejects going to 2nd tier utys etc.
The big beneficiaries will be community colleges. APOL, DV and STRA will get those who don’t think highly of community colleges.
Regardless, availability of student loans is the key for these guys. I think it will get tighter and with microscopic scrutiny..
I see them as big losers
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes
The March NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1210.96 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 1153.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1233.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1210.96. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1233.37. First support is today’s low crossing at 1179.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1153.50.
The March S&P 500 index closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below January’s low crossing at 797.00, which also marks the lower boundary of this year’s trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Confirmation of a trading range breakout would open the door for a possible test of November’s low crossing at 737.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 832.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 831.33. Second resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 872.80. First support is today’s low crossing at 786.00. Second support is November’s low crossing at 737.00.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this year’s decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If the Dow extends this year’s decline, November’s low crossing at 7449 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20- day moving average crossing at 8047 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7986. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8047. First support is today’s low crossing at 7551. Second support is November’s low crossing at 7449.