A few days late but I have the luxury of watching how futures played Monday. And they ended red at 808.75.
The market is struggling mightily in the lower third of the 800 region the last few days. The rally Thursday was not followed up on Friday with any conviction. Indeed futures have almost taken back 100% of that rally. The cash index SPX should follow.
The waves are pointing down. I played around with Andrew’s pitchforks to find some possible channels among all the overlapping mess. Everything points down particularly the DJIA. Except the NASDAQ which wants to rally it seems too bad the rest of the stock market is either in debt or bankrupt or dying. As far as the “big triangle” if the market is going to retrace to point “E” then it will come from a lower spot it seems. One scenario is that the SPX drops to 768 or so and the DJIA drops to near its low. The NASDAQ would not drop as much and that seems to be the clue that the market wants to rally on that “E” leg.
So the triangle scenario is still in play. My thinking is it just hasn’t found point D yet. If D is to be found, then it should happen this week I would think latest by next Monday 23rd. Then a very hard rebound cutting through and above 877 would follow likely topping between that and 900.
Pyschologically, a drop to 765 and the DJIA dropping to near its previous lows would signal to many a “retest” of the bottom and cause a very hard rally with new money coming back in trying to jump on the greed bandwagon. This may propel the indexes through the tough resistance layers in a matter of a week or so. Then by early March or second week of March, intermediate wave 5 down to new lows begins in earnest and there is no choppy down action, little in the way of bounces and it just sells off to new market lows in a powerful thrust down and out through the apex of the triangle.
But that is all hypothetical of course. The reason I still hold on to the thought of this being a long-winded D leg is that the waves are very erratic, the VIX is low, and the NASDAQ is still bullish.
When you say “drop to” 868/865, do you mean 768/765?
yeah I fixed it thanks!
Daneric,
im afraid that EW is being overcome by Stock Marketing and that ive posted a blog about it just now. too follow the stock marketing campaign is too profit tremendously. of course this is all fictional writing and should not be construed as investment advice.
isn’t EW about real emotions and real market movements by real people? im ready to admit that nothing we are watching anymore is about anything real. other than real marketing.
i’ve given this a great deal of thought based on the actions from Oct. until now.
“wink wink nudge nudge say no more say no more”
good luck trading!
The Nasdaq has a potential head and Shoulders Top pattern on a daily chart with the Neckline coming into play at 1450. Maybe this Head and Shoulders Top will be negated in the end since the Nasdaq has acted better than the Dow and S&P 500 over the past 4 weeks.
possible count wave 32 of 3 of 5
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=18&id=p97720152381&a=161469770&listNum=19
Brilliant minds think alike, I did the fork thing for a couple hours yesterday and concluded you can stick a fork in the Dow and SPX.
IMO, the 8000 level on the Dow Industrials has immense importance. SImilarly with SPX 823 or so. The former losing that level repeatedly would seem to be the canary in this coal mine. If SPX loses its mojo and Dow continues down, NDX doesn’t have a hope of not following. It wants to be the leader but it can’t survive without consumers who are employed.
Potential Puetz crash window catalysts; GM bankruptcy (tomorrow), CA on the brink (tomorrow), etc., etc. Hochberg/Prechter and Bob Bronson see a wave 5 before a durable corrective rally (wave 2 of C).
On the other side of the ledger, Charles Nenner, Peter Eliades, Robert McHugh have all said the short term low is in and the next move is to a high in March/April that precedes a really big move down. Web bots at halfpasthuman.com divine a continued sideways up into the March/April time frame before the “summer from hell.” Guess the latter says it all. Learn how to start a fire with flint because that’s what you’ll need to know to cook dinner in a couple months. Gosh, I’ve been reading too much bear stuff.
Jim
Fake GM bankruptcy tomorrow. Market crash. GM bailout revival overnight.
this could occur tomorrow or Weds. my gut is telling me we get the bottom in tomorrow and close on the lows but im open too paired down days. however, paired down days just dont have the emotional punch. this way shorts are stuck waiting for more.
if this occurs im unloading short at eod and going long for the bs rally.
Probably a smart thing Richard!! Mchugh suggests that the low may have been put in on Thursday, but could go a bit lower first day or so this week. BUT!, plus or minus a couple days, the 18th is a critical trend change date for the intermediate term. Likely a nice rally, before reality sets in and renew short positions. A rally to take place that could last into mid March or so which is the B wave (likely a 5 wave motive). Monthly Stochastics at lowest point and have turned to crossover north.
EXACTLY
see my posts under social. what is going on here i believe is not a MARKET EVENT but a complex MARKETING EVENT so they can call a double bottom and start cheerleading again. expect us to pierce the old lows on light volume and then rip back up in a nasty fashion.
key: if we close the day on some ugly lows you better be covering shorts. this is the most likely scenario for this evil wall street / government / media marketing campaign. be on your toes.
According http://emini-watch.com/ market is still in the edge of a cliff. However the bullish bias improved slightly. Bottom line, probably we will see more consolidation this week.
By the way, option pain is 85 for SPY. Are we prepared for more manipulation this week?
Now we know Dan is a forkoholic
Nasdaq showing lag?? Take a look at AAPL. APOL, AGN, AMZN and GOOG..
ALL, and I mean ALL have ‘broken out’ and showing stength. See the daily since October. Tell me I am wrong….just go ahead and try. It is about CASH on hand and superiority. They are a flight to safety amoung the money guys.
That being said, if i see weakness here, like a break down into the triangle again….I will get worried about the nasdag. Until then…..QID is a bad bad bet….IMHO.
Hrmm, I recall tech rallying in May 2007, August, etc
1) AAPL: Well, I love my iPhone for fun and business
~
2) GOOG: The a worse my construction business gets, the more I advertise.
3) IBM: PCs will always be required.
4) APOL: no job, may as well go to school.
That being said, I still would not buy any of them.
im short APOL and will cover in the 60s. It is not a school. Goog, more bankruptcies less advertisers. AAPL – no food on the table no new iphone. IBM…dinosaur eggs. 3min. you are too bullish. that will soon change.
one leg down here so all the jokesters can yell double bottom. strong PPT and Market Maker push up so they can pull thier pom poms out and Jim Cramer can Hump his stuffy Mr. Bull. i’d pull off your bull cap just under 900…880ish to be exact after this OPEX manipulation and the ra ra is over. put some lighter fluid on it and you know the rest
shortly after all these shenanigans and the failure of the SP to break 900 the next leg down will begin and this thing will slowly bleed to death along with all those stocks you list. this is how im playing it and i’ve not been wrong too much lately.
im not playing this market… im playing thier little marketing game. once that game is over the real game starts ….lower…lower…lower. and ill be monster short at the bullshitish buffet. after this double bottom holds i’ll be going to the can to throw up.
good luck trading!