Intraday Commentary ~ 02/11/2009

By
FocalEquity
– February 11, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

3:00pm
Really strong volume up candle, could mean this market has some strengh left. That said, we haven’t retraced even a 38.2% retracement level yet, so this market is still headed downards. In fact, the market could be forming a penant formation on the 10 minute SPY level. With a descending resistance line at 83.75$, and a support at 82.50. A break of this penant will yeild a fall of the magnitude of the flag, which is 3$ on the SPY.

2:47pm
Market retesting the support which should not be resistance at 83.12$

1:44pm
We’re breaking down under ascending line.  

11:53am
Potential bull flag, however, again, i rather take a short position than a long these days.  

11:16am
Market breaking out here, making the inverse head shoulders, next real resistance is the 38.2% retracement.  

11:10am
Market can’t seem to get passed the descending neckline, but the bears aren’t piling in on high volume either. We might have a potential triangle scenario here.  

10:53am
Possible inverse head and shoulders (WV) pattern, with a descending neckline on the 10 minute SPY.  I want to also say, that because of the hype of the stimulus, the horrible jobs number reported last week was not necessarily price into the market yet. We might get a very nice shock in the market this week, to account for it. 

10:41am
Market is REtesting the support line YET AGAIN, this definitely does not vote well for the bulls. The volume is relatively weak on this descent, and the line might not break on first hit, but this doesn’t look great.  

1:45am

First of all, I would like to thank everyone for participating in this commentary. You guys do such a great job, and I hope you gain just as much out of it as I do. We had the most amount of posts ever recorded yesterday, so lets keep that going.  Time to get back to business. We see the futures up slightly, about 30 points on the Dow. Tomorrow may look to be like a consolidation day. Looking at the charts, we are overdue for a small bounce. This small bounce will probably form the right shoulder of a MA (or head and shoulders) pattern, which should take us to new lows once the ascending support line is broken. I believe a 38.2% retracement will be the highest this market goes, but a 50% fibonacci retracement is not out of the question. These prices are 84.33 and 84.92$ on the SPY respectively. I will look to add to my short at those prices. In the longer (day-week span), we are in a consolidation pattern, where the highs remain stuck at a 50 precent retracement at 87.50$, and the lows are slowly climing higher due to the ascending support line. This whole tirangle consolidation pattern can be reguarded as subwave 2 of Wave 5. Subwave 3, will only technically start, once we break this line. However, I believe starting to short tomorrow in anticipation is the way to make money.

 

feb-10

About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.