3:59pm
As we predicted, the market has started taking a turn for the worse. This is exactly what i was talking about on friday, I do expect this to happen. We might get a possible fibonacci retracement bounce, but a continuation of this until options expiration is very possible as well. This means, I still believe we are in wave 5, and (subwave 3), which should be the most agressive and long wave downards.
3:02pm
We just hit the slowly ascending support that we hit 3 days ago, a nice bounce should be in the works, but that will only be temporary.
10:47am
Nice bear flag formation, this maybe a nice short soon.
10:16am
We are testing, the ascending support of last week. Breaking it will allow more bears to pile in.
12:35am
Today’s possible double top formation at 87.70$, could mean the end of the updays, and the start of the downdays. I feel more secure placing short positions, now that the stimulus has been finalized. While more potential bailout plans will be on the table, they might take some time to pass through bureaucracy, and this gives bulls less of a catalyst. The bears should pile in very soon. I like the potential of a long term short, with a stop at the double top area.
Who’s Keeping their shorts? Getting long etc..?
Bull bounce for tommow morning. Now is the time to place your bets.
Schweizer, Uner, Mohan and everyone.
thanks for keeping me from OVER-HEDGING long all my short bets. when this turned ugly, i took zero pain on my hedge and now im smiling.
that was a very healthy debate. interesting how the debate was heating up as the market was about to make a move… a real tell for our group.
Congrats …. a good civil exchange, unlike most other places. I like the balance.
We’re here to make $$. Oscar is right about not trading alone. Small investors have no friends except each other. I have learned a lot here on ST that has helped me. By trading ideas, opinions, and information, maybe we can ALL start having more of these 25% up days!
going to save the trendline for the close and then decline into tomorrow?
maybe i buy back now.
back in TWM at $71.90
that was a quick move.
10m bottom candle is in.
But the 20ma/10m is 831.47, so it won’t get too far unless they try real hard.
Kissed and backed off. Chickenshit.
did we touch the trendline from underneath?
this is the MORNING BOUNCE now? im back in short ETF
i’m also back short. got in right at high 831. waiting for the move to 818.
Back above it slightly, but it’s not exact due to the various tails.
nice lil run up here – maybe i stay in overnight
Can someone explain a 60 point move in the dow in 30 Seconds?
covering!
stop clear out — we are going lower after hours. that is what im thinking.
FUTURES ARE AT 822… did the right thing im thinking.
nice =) i say 818 tomorrow before any rises or retraces. so far up 5% and willing to hold into tomorrow.
Calling 824 close. Gap down, then short bump up.
or not
Holding remaining put pos overnight
thye want to hold the 825-27 area — shows that everything will be alright.
That’s all, just
Uner if your out there I’ll give you this one. I didn’t agree a market could form a double top since its supposed to be a reversal on an extended move, not a continuation. Anyway I’m sure you got your baggers today whatever that means. Don’t always agree with your TA but you keep us bulls in check.
Hey no problem; with too much resistance, there’s nowhere to go but down, and the fundamentals are just too sucky. Not even the suckers believe any more that the big shots can pee up this firehose, so the winter bear-market rally is probably falling apart, with the EW structure ideally aligned with standard TA and FA, things loog really grim. Fortunately, we do have quick and powerful ways to respond to this situation as soon as we know what the situation is. Everybody whose breath would fog a mirror probably knew pretty early today that it was time to seek out the lairs of the bears. It took a bit of swing-for-the-fences craziness to go all in with FAZ and harvest 25%, but with enough income and assets from other sources, some were able to go to that extreme, while most probably exercised due caution, but I hope everybody still milked this setup for at least 10%. These nine charts look to me like the bears possibly have even more roaring to do:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?FAZ,SRS,TZA,XLF,IYR,IWM,$SPX,$VIX,$BPSPX:$VIX|B|E6,13,5
So I ain’t leaving the party yet.
Thinking of swinging a long on BAC…..;)
done. Hmmm. I really did make too much today.
I sold my BAC puts at close… LOL!
I don’t think overseas will like this too much.
Good day Boys and Girls.
All I want Wednesday is a VIX close over the 50dma. Stubborn thing.
oh me oh my…. im tired.
hope everyone cashed in on this. trying to play that last move was tough. out at 824 in at 830 …. feel like a day trader which im not.
good job everyone who made out nicely!
Great day. Exhausted…in a good way. Thanks to all.
Group bear hug.
cheers to insatiable and s135…!!!!!..me hungry for more charts!!!!
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?FAZ,SRS,TZA,XLF,IYR,IWM,$SPX,$VIX,$BPSPX:$VIX|B|E6,13,5
How about nine little ones that tell most of what you want to know?
yeah i’m beat…i haven’t watched the market that intensely in a LONG time. lot of movement, a lot of profit. GREAT day everyone.
cheers to you Woo..even though I find your comments harder to apply because you get real cute and go for 10 point bounces withen days like this your counts have always been solid ..
UNDERSTATEMENT OF 2009 (to date) belongs to Idan……
10:47am
Nice bear flag formation, this maybe a nice short soon.
hahaha… i’m a psychic what can i say
Came across this article on the washington post….. I think this could be a step towards fixing the Real estate mess we are in but would like your thoughts and comments.
Thanks
Fannie to Loosen Refi Rules……
Who’s Blogging» Links to this article
By Jody Shenn
Bloomberg News
Friday, February 6, 2009; Page D04
Fannie Mae will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their mortgage payments by refinancing.
The District company, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the $12 trillion in U.S. residential mortgage debt, is seeking to break a “logjam” in refinancing and allow more homeowners to take advantage of near-record low interest rates, according to Brian Faith, a spokesman for Fannie Mae, which like its rival, Freddie Mac, is under government control.
The increased flexibility for borrowers isn’t enough to significantly harm mortgage-bond investors and mortgage insurers, analysts said.
“This is not yet the no-appraisal refi wave that many have feared,” Matt Jozoff and Brian Ye, mortgage-bond analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase, wrote in note to clients yesterday.
Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice to lenders it distributed this week. The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees.
Fannie Mae will probably use automated models to check home values listed on applications before offering to waive appraisals, analysts said.
The changes will also include allowing borrowers seeking to take out a loan that is 80 percent of the value of the home or less to qualify for refinancing with credit scores below its 580 minimum.
FICO credit scores as measured by Fair Isaac Corp. range from 300 to 850. The program also will lower income-documentation requirements to one current pay stub.
The program, DU Refi Plus, will start April 4.
so, we got into this mess on loose credit right? going to fix it with same? awful!
during the wild trading day it’s hard to read all the posts. it’s great to have eod laugh!
Now they are talking about ‘Mark to Market’. NOW,,,after the freakin’ day is over,,of course.
Hmmm… I went long at end of day/qqqq. And I figured I was going to get whacked to 820, or 813.
MoFarkers…no matter what. Oh well. This won’t be good,,,LONG term.
end of day Congrats to all those who solidly lined-up and called the drop today well before the opening bell – ding ding peoples…Geithner’s speech appears to amount to a starting gun for the last big leg down – giddyup!
I just want to know where Daneric is… ???
The Catalyst to come….
http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXWQEydhsoUI&refer=home