11:17am
I will be gone most of the day, but I would not take an intraday position until later today if at all. This market is forming patterns that are harder to trade. It looks like we want to go higher, but i’m not sure how much higher this can go.
10:46am
A break of 83.40.. will lead to a move to 84$, which might be the end of this rally and the start of the big move lower that we’re talking about.
10:37am
Market trailing upwards very slightly on low volume. We might get some sellers out there once we hit the 20 SMA 60 minute
getting in line for pelosi speak at 2:30? market tank?…market might show its lack of enthusiasm for crap going on in D.C.
That’s what I think but when I think like that it usually does the opposite.
dont know about that idea. im thinking they just keep it in this range as long as they can by not selling. get the weak shorts to cover. my H&S has been negated so 816 close is out the window.
im favouring a flat market for rest of day as weak shorts cover. maybe we make the 837 target overnight. that seems to be a market favourite.
APOL … popped … things are getting interesting.
May want to take a stab at crude oil related trades here: DXO, UCO, Short DTO…. Support on WTIC at 40. Currently at 40.39
3min, keep us posted on the FAZ entry!
it does not look like it is going to get oversold. That does not mean it is not a buy…..you are on your cotton….
Personally, I only trade FAZ at oversold and overbought. I could be missing the opportunity.
Thanks!
Took my first short position at 835 spx (1/3 position sso puts). Will take another 1/3 at 837-842. Will keep the remaining 1/3 open in cash for a possible blow over to the 61.8% retrace at 853 or a breakdown of the channel, whichever comes first
I’m waiting for a few more points before scaling in.
this is like watching the sequel the “Scream”
good plan. i still have cash to double down my worst performing short position should we reach the 840 area. im not trying to day trade this. im just going to build up my current positions.
if we only make 837 im not going to put the rest of my cash into any of my current positions. only if head to some ridiculous number above 840
yeah, i say half position at 837, and save half for a possible 843-85$ move just in case.
congrats with your call on the 837
thanks haha. too bad i couldn’t put any money on my trade because of my stupid online broker zecco. i would’ve taken a position from 822 and sold right now…argh…missed out on 20-30% profit. hate my life…
also can’t get in on this awesome short position…kill me now…
Sorry to hear that
here goes…I’M GOING IN!
OK, I’m 50% short. Long of IWM puts and TZA
FAZ: DM chart looking horid….don’t know why it is not just falling hard right now.
FAS actually gaining some strength!
it should be.
may be because the financials are still weak?
837 hit… let’s see what happens now..
good job WOO. too bad about your account. maybe its a good thing? just maybe with 850 and your account is available and you take full position there:)
ok woo’s been bang on. i might have to start riding his coat tails like everyone else :p more praise sir. this has been a good day as all the ewers have been calling for the bounce and it actually happened
I think SPY wants to get to 84
still within the channel…
look at the edited version…
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/still-think-were-bound-for-837
love the way CNBC has to find a reason for a technical trade. Merck is the reason for the broad based rally? yeah. one company post ok earnings and that takes up to 837. dont know why i read that webpage anymore.
I cant believe SRS is still holding up???
Wow, Woo. How the hell did you predict 837 ON THE DOT? That was the _?_ retracement of _?__ move? If you have a few seconds, I’d like to get the gist of how you concluded that!
Jedi mind tricks
Master Woo of the Waves – Obey my count, you will.
lol:-)
most important to note. dont pile in short and go on Vacation
this is only a potential top. we can pull back gain strength and push higher. stay tuned. may continue higher tomorrow. im not even going to hedge my shorts this time. im convinced the next move is lower.. alot lower. a hedge may lose me money as the market could move that fast.
we are getting ever so closer to the tip of this wedge:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-feb-2
im thinking, 5 days or less before the beginning of a major move
well it’s not over yet, could still head higher.
it’s the 38% retrace from 877-812. this number HAS to hit sooner or later,
5 beautiful waves counted down from 877-812 almost down to an exact EW definition, so the bounce was coming.
from 812 to 837, 845, 852 i drew fib retraces, and the fibs for the 812-837 look really good, this means you’ll either see a REALLY good bounce here, or it could be near the peak.
the upward movement from 812-837 also has a good looking 3 wave pattern with an 18 1 wave, 14 2 wave and 21 3 wave. most of these abc corrective 3 wave patterns after the 5 waves have close to equal 1 and 3 waves, but can sometimes extend further.
add all these things and a few small other things like trend lines, etc. together, and 837 looks pretty darn good for a point to get out and go short.
TWM… short Russels.
at 837 on the SPX it ALMOST made it to the price i paid at the open of $71.03 and now has quickly gained ground to :$71.80… getting whippy up here.
Would somebody breathe on this market and topple it over please.
anyone hear pelosi? I hear her breath is pretty bad.
[wafts green odor of Pelosi's breath under market's nose]
Smells like rotten Samoan tuna from her husband’s taxpayer-subsidized cannery!
New daily low on the VIX just now… time for a jump up? Double top? We shall see.
we should crack now
Unless you think the market has disconnected itself from the financial stocks, we are headed lower today. Look at BAC, C, WFC, and JPM. BAC looks like it wants break $5. What is going on there that we don’t know about yet? I’ll wait for the re test of the Nov lows before I consider going long.
GFF,,,, starting to curl over… last call
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gff
TWM… making new lows — we have strength
if the russels close above 458 im going to be worried.
it just occured to me that the reason we might not be cracking is because the financial ARE weak at the moment. They would have to crack from weakness, rather than from strength….which is a softer fall.
thus, not able to pull the market down hard with it.
there’s 840. hit the top of my trendline right there…i wonder if it’ll keep going to 845. how fun…
i better be able to trade tomorrow…or heads are going to fly.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/still-think-were-bound-for-837
simply stated… makers want 840 and want it bad… need this market to look bullish to sell into it. maybe we can grab 842 at the close.
KBH is only $0.40 from its 50dma….pushing hard
all indicators (3min) on SPX in ralley mode…..watch out.
I just sent out some more charts from Citi. They are expecting the USD to fall very significantly from here.
Good luck,
Pete
that would be totally contrary to what happen in the Great Depression
It makes a lot of sense. Think about it. Money comes out of the bonds market, therefore yields go up. Investors don’t keep the money in USD assets. It goes to currencies where yield is higher, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD.
Can I get a copy of those charts?
cholazo@yahoo.com Thanks.
I put you on the list.
me too please: botez@charter.net. Thanks.
Anyone else for Citi charts? Let me know.
ok i’m getting out of SSO from yesterday made a little over a buck. I still think we could go a little higher, i’m gonna wait a little before jumping into TZA. Were above the channel from yesterday maybe it’s a bull trap. or maybe not.
P.S. thanks WOO
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409&cmd=shows154609994&disp=P
About ready to hit a TON of resistence, several retraces and the top trendline. Nice job on the long.
wow. you rode that almost perfectly. awesome job.
it just crossed over the middle trendline into the top trendline. 845 will probably hit at this rate, which was what i was thinking might happen if you see my comment box that’s remained the same since yesterday.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/still-think-were-bound-for-837
i think i could’ve had a 40% day on my calls…i need a beer…i’m leaving work early today…
Hope this reaches you before you leave. Mucho thanks for your help today. Beer’s on me!
come on FAZ……get oversold and I am in.
Shanky, what’s the VIX telling you?
Observation: Each of these rallies takes the stocks I watch to lower highs. I mean they are rallying to a lower and lower price each time.
FAZ: -DM crossed over ADX…that is bullish for Faz and might show a bottom…….but I am not going in yet……I might miss the opportunity here
In at $51.31. Thanks for keeping us updated!
good for you.
holding overnight?
I bought TZA all the way up from 837. Maybe we get to 845, that would be a 50% retrace. I’m not concerned.
And I’m now in the green. Didn’t even have to wait that long.
VIX looks like it got KO’d. Totally oversold but out cold….holy moly
ok, smelling salt worked.
Tell me about it. My call options were losing money all day even though the market was going up. It sucked.
that might be it…. take a look at the put call ratio…. just like it was before we began selling off:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24cpc almost to the penny
having fun yet everyone? you can tell i am.
Some profit taking now
At least my SRS is not down today. I think we’re going to sell off into the close.
We get the ADP jobs report tomorrow before the open and it’s going to be a whopper..
Yep. I think this was window dressing to put as much meat on the bone as possible, before the numbers come out.
Pardon my naivity, but how are the numbers coming out tomorrow different than the Unemployment report that’s coming out on Friday?
ADP is typically regarded as more credible, more reliable. The government numbers on Friday are widely regarded as manipulated, “cooked” if you will.
This practice of cooking the jobs numbers dates back to John F Kennedy. He insisted that the jobs report cross his desk before it was officially released. Every president since then has maintained the tradition.
Obama may decide not to doctor this jobs report. After all, he can lay the blame for lousy numbers on Bush’s. But as he gets further into his tenure I think we can expect him to phony up the numbers just like his predecessors.
Thank you for the clarification! I would expect the numbers to be much worse than December. It seems a company would make every attempt to stall laying off until after the holidays if at all possible.
ADP Report tom,
Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.
Let wave 3 3 (5) begin.. 838 was 38.2% retracement and 845 was 50% retracement of wave 2 3 (5).. We got to 843 which is close. I don’t think we will get to 853 tomorrow with ADP tomorrow, new claims Thursday and Jan non-farm payrolls on Friday.
that should do it.
if FAZ can get to 53.35….it should pop
First officer woo, where is captain S135? Damn it Scotty, where’s that flare guy too???
yeah i haven’t heard much from s135 and gr and a few others. shanky’s been quiet too…
Gr hasn’t posted since the holidays
yes were is that flare guy and captain S135?
Just caught-up after coming back from a meeting.
IBM is up as the CEO is going to be on CNBS at 4. Oh, please. Haven’t we had enough of this crap in the 90s?
Now the buzz is that US is going to “insure” the bad debt of banks. No more one “bad bank.” They are all banks.
IBM is done.
Correction…
They are all bad banks.
That make me think bad for FAZ. I am not holding it right now but I think that would make me not hold overnight.
Hi stranger. Welcome back. You missed a white knuckle afternoon.
A core principle of EWP is that news is irrelevant. It can move the market for a very brief period of time but in the end the market always does what it was going to do, regardless.
bearish cross on FAZ
market psychology.
close above 840… bullish… market opens lower tomorrow.
close below 840… bearish… market opens higher tomorrow.
will find out tomorrow.
good luck trading.
Do you make that up?
i’m thinking we’ll extend one last time up to a little past 845. the upper BB is coinciding around there really soon…i’m thinking we’ll overextend it and then see a large plummet afterwards to start off a 5 wave down that should go sub 800.
Look at the price and volume of the last 15 minutes of the last 2 days. That’s exactly what happened.
just use my thinker. that is all. if we stay above 840 we will open lower.. that is not saying we will crash its just that is the game they play. f with your mind!
of course im wrong 40% of the time! never forget that.
im tremendously happy with how my holdings performed in this market today. my account is in good shape
I’m wrong 60% of the time so you have me beat.
2 question =Any logic behind your 840 number?
Will you be “watching 840 like a hawk”?
nice job today woo/ insatiable as always..both called this little rally..
838-840 is a support resistance band going back months
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A14705
Bullish cross on SPX….
Anyone taking or holding any positions overnight?
no way, Jose.
all of them
1/2 short position sso
all of them including the sary bastard/angel faz.
1/2 position short SSO
Nope didn’t pile in short yet hoping i don’t regret it.
60% short. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see us go higher tomorrow. We didn’t hit the 50% retrace and the market likes nice round numbers.
And my entire short position is long of TZA.
Bank(rupt) of America
sub 5 tomorrow
almost a rare day where the IYR and SRS were green
IYR is not green..IYR is down .12 cents on my screen…Its a rare day when the market rallies and SRS is green. Got me so excited I added 200 shares at close 58.65… just bit the bullet and bought when the typical eod sell off did not happen.
i did say ‘almost’
for much of the last 30 mins they were both positive
SRS may finally have some room to move up.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?SRS
I think you might be better off doing TA on IYR …good luck..
Sold out this a.m. FAZ=51.89505882 SRS=59.20121429
(avg price adjusted for fees & multiple trades)
held proceeds +annuity check cash until S&P spiked 842 (Daneric’s Fib confluence almost exactly) topping at 842.60 and started to falter on 10-min chart
Reloaded then FAZ=51.98632 SRS=58.57228571
No. shares factor FAZ 0.998249529
No. shares factor SRS 1.01073892
Closing Prices FAZ=52.11 SRS=58.99
After Hours FAZ=53.56 SRS=59.32
% Gain FAZ 2.85%
% Gain SRS 2.36%
Not a lot — it was tough to trade that swing with S&P up 1.58% but XLF down 1.84% and IYR down 0.38%
insatiable,
That made me real nervous for a sec. when I read sold FAZ and SRS…heart skipped a beat..then I saw reloaded and all was well again. The sun came out in southern cali, a rainbow appeared, and I saw a flying unicorn making its way into the afternoon sky. Great call by you and woo on a little bounce!!! Now lets hope the brutal downside happens sooner rather then later.
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, February 3, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury Geithner to WSJ: US fiscal policy to be “very aggressive”
US home vacancy rate rises to 2.9% in 4Q – matching record from 1Q08
US NAR Pending home sales for December rise 6.3% – better than expected
US January light vehicle SAAR sales rate 9.53 mn off 39.7% y/y
COMMENTS
For a day that started slow we end up with real moves that are breaking key technical levels and suggest something more interesting could be ahead for February. Today was about shooting your way out of the winter blues, getting past bounty hunters and other bandits to find the gold. So in the midst of winter with moods are bearish as ever it’s wise to focus on the “good” over the “bad” news. On the good news front – 1) Pending home sales increased. Bears will tell you this is all because of the foreclosure firesales in California and Nevada – but so what? – a sale is a sale is a sale at any price. Eliminate the supply of homes and good things happen. Key is that prices are of 20% and if they stabilize here the financials feel less risk on all the rest of the MBS toxic asset pool. 2) FED extends its alphabet soup lines. The help of being the lender of last resort means more time for companies to get comfortable with the new economic environment. The push of CP lower over the last few weeks has been an indication that companies are moving to other ways of funding away from the FED line – but so it should be – and until the money markets are back to normal this FED extension is a good thing. Further, the extension of USD swap lines eliminates the hump we started to see in EUR funding and puts the USD back down a notch – erasing the Barron’s article fuss and putting some further USD into the global system = ie helping EUR back over 1.30. 3) More talk about stimulus and banks. The latest version of the bad bank debate pushes a guarantee rather than a bank aggregator as the way of supporting financial sector. The issue for a bad bank has always been at what price will toxic assets be sold and who will be in charge of the portfolio. The guarantee may be a cleaner solution. Also talk of Geithner pushing a “very aggressive” stimulus helps counter the Senate Republican cheap version – making clear that spending will happen in 2009. 4) Less talk of trade wars and more about BRICs. Geithner confirmed he is talking with China. The pressure to act on CNY vs act on the economy has been met and we clearly blinked. The guns are shooting for a recovery in both the US and China. On the bad news and the ugly front: 1) Auto sales. At a 9.5 mn run rate for vehicle sales the US will have to shut down more plants. The consumer remains on strike – and the savings rate will continue to rise – that is the silver lining of the weak report. 2) Home vacancy rate higher. The bad news of housing remains supply – home vacancies are at the highs, home ownership participation rate drops to 8 years lows and the renter vacancies top 10.1% – all point to almost 2 mn homes of supply. 3) Inflation back in play? While most people argue that deflation is a larger risk markets are seeing a bounce back in oil and copper prices and the turn in industrial activity (or the stabilization of its rapid fall) has led to some clear rethinking about future prices. Bonds falling 2 big figures and 30Y yields up 20 bps today won’t help mortgages or get the economy back on track. The oil price and other metals matters as well as input prices dropping helped keep production profits in line despite the drop in business. 4) HIA 2. There are a host of stories about how the US will go back to HIA as a means of getting in new tax dollars to help offset the stimulus and bank plans. This may be USD supportive as in the previous episode but it seems too early to tell the details and to hypothesize on its size and success. Many see a stronger USD as a problem for future growth and an issue for exporters – so its going to be a race for other means to spark the economy. Bottom line: Ahead of the Friday jobs report there is plenty more to think about globally – China remains the driver of choice – rate cuts globally the second hope – more fiscal spending the third. The squeeze of public over private concerns hasn’t yet dominated the tape but eventually we may find money hard to get again – leading to round two of deleveraging. Expect many more gun fights before this is over.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.282 1.3058 Close: 1.3008
JPY/USD 88.59 89.68 Close: 89.24
JPY/EUR 114.76 116.6 Close: 116.0834
USD/GBP 1.4179 1.4485 Close: 1.4425
GBP/EUR 0.9007 0.9085 Close: 0.9018
CHF/USD 1.1401 1.1624 Close: 1.1449
CHF/EUR 1.4828 1.4906 Close: 1.4893
USD/AUD 0.635 0.6546 Close: 0.6529
CAD/USD 1.2293 1.2502 Close: 1.2348
NZD/USD 0.5025 0.5155 Close: 0.514