Primary Count: SPX is tracing out Minute wave {ii} of Minor wave 3 of Intermediate Wave (5)
I put the “ideal” retrace time for Minute wave {ii} to be about 10 hours. That would suggest a peak tomorrow at around 1pm. I show that on my chart. It can of course deviate from the time as well as price targets.
Dan,
What material did you find most helpful in your education of EWT?
Hey,
I already asked this to him but unfortunately he was mute.
I hated Prechter book. At least for me it did not help in any way and it was a complete waste of money. It does not show you the steps in order to learn the theory.
After checking some reviews at Amazon, I selected and bought 02 books:
- Dynamic Trading – Robert C Miner – Currently I am studying it. Very clear and it provides all required steps in order to master this technique
- Mastering Elliot Waves – Glenn Neely – it seems that it is the bible. Looks very dry. You can study it only after reading the Miner one
I hope that my own experience can help you
AJVS
I’ll disagree and say The Elliot Wave Principle is all you need. I also got myself a subscription to EWI, seeing Prechter and co’s updates is great.
I found the book ‘Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably’ by Stephen Poser (Wiley) to be comprehensive but not overwhelming. It’s very concise and not overly long.
EWT is something of an art and even after you learn the theory the application is another separate hurdle – but a hurdle, not a brick wall.
The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost/Prechter. Its my only source as far as I’m concerned. I hesitate to read anyone else’s work other than Prechter.
By the way T-Odd, Prechter book is free.
Go to EW website (http://www.elliottwave.com/), sign for a free account and the whole book will be available for you (go to “free stuff” tab)
AJVS
Mastering Elliott Wave by Glenn Neely is not orthodox elliott wave and not easy to master. I reading it last.
I know from experience. There’s only one way to learn it and that is to trade with it. How much would a college education cost you? Be prepared to spend at least that much learning EWs. And forget paper trading. It’s a joke and has no relevance whatsoever. No more than playing a shooter game is anything like being a ground soldier in Iraq.
Another thing you need is at least some modest mathematical apptitude. Algebra, trigonometry, statistics, and at least first year calculus are prerequisites IMO. Engineers and those with a scientific background will take to it rather easily and grasp it the easiest. But you also need grit. Guts. Bob Prechter said combat Marines make some of the best traders because they are trained, patient, able to tolerate extreme physical and mental stress without giving way to fear, yet when the time comes to act they act without hesitation, with intent. If you could hybridize the two, engineer + marine, you’d probably have the ultimate Elliott Wave trader.
elliott wave..prechter..& tons of practice..a good teacher is a luxury…for me a necessity…
I completely agree. I had to humble myself to admit that I needed a teacher. I found one in Bob Prechter but there are also some pretty good ones here on Stocktock.
Thanks Daneric! What’s your target for where we go after our 1pm target tomorrow? Are we looking at sub-800?
Thanks guys! I”m impressed with how quickly Dan has been able to put EW to work and get a good understanding. Nice job Daneric!
If the RUSSELS push up to 458 and get refused around that level we may be looking at the completion of H&S pattern. head tops 475, 430 neckline. target for the move would be 430-45=385 .. im getting some TWM at around 458 with a stop 2% higher.
\\ im going to set a limit order in TWM for this move to trigger near this target price.
im focussing on this index for tomorrows main trade.
good luck trading.
What is your target price?
430-45=385
courtesy of permabear.
I am also interested in rut – am shorting TNA and leaving open for any bounces. Hedged by 1/2 amount TZA.
I think we ware still in Subwave 1, I see a finished flat in Subsubwave 4 by the close. Yes there are multiple possibilities to count.
But remember the First Downwave of this Bigger Wave, it seemed finished, and then a complex sideways correction and one more impulse down came to finsh the Wave.
That’s what I’ve been seeing too, though Dan makes a good case.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx_under800tomorrow_090202-1
absolutely true, maybe Dan’s count is too proper/perfect than the humanity (which makes the market)
But there should be a Bounce at the 800 Level, in both Counts.
Agree. The 10-min Elliott Oscillator indicates that wave 4 of 1 of (5) couldn’t have been complete until about 12:30pm Monday. So unless you believe that the leg down from 830 to 816 this afternoon was a truncated wave 5 of 1 of (5), we should see 1 of (5) complete by testing the 800 level sometime Tues or Wed.
Note this doesn’t mean that 4 of 1 of (5) is over as of Mon close. It could still go up a bit before 5 of 1 of (5) starts.
Since Bear markets bottoms are made at a PE of 8-10 historically, and for the SPX that means sub 400 based on 2009 forward earnings estimates, how in heck can this be Intermediate 5 already unless this is only Primary 1 and that Primary 5 will be the one to get us to sub 400? Seems that it is too early to be in Intermediate 5 and too late to be still in Primary 1 unless the sub 400 is years out.
What say you?
S135, you bring up something I’ve been saying for a couple of months. Even at just a PE of 15 we should be at 600 already. And a PE of 10 is what I expect also. I hate to admit it but I heard one of the talking heads on CNBC say something about typical PE in bear markets and something he said was that the PE is usually so low because of inflation. We don’t have an inflation issue (yet), so that may be why we aren’t where we think we should be. So we may have to wait for the inflation piece to come into play… in a year or two. Here is just a quick thing I found while digging around.
As always, what I heard was just one man’s comment, but at least it may partially explain what we’re seeing.
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/123.asp
it is years out. The bear market has years to run. You ain’t seen the worst.
How long does a single cycle take (primary 1 through 5)? If Primary 1 was from 2007 through now, can we expect each additional primary wave to be roughly the same time length?
I usppose so. EWI is calling for 2012-2014
I think the alternative scenario that we are in a wave 4 triangle, still, from the end November, and the more likely breakout is down.
Just my view of course.