12:41pm
Bull flag here looking pretty good.
12:11pm
Potential move to the 20 SMA, through an inverse head and shoulders. 20 SMA (10 min) sitting at 83.84$. A failure to break 83.60 means we’re going much lower. I covered my short from yesterday right now.
11:51am
The descending triangle that everyone is talking about, bounced by a descending resistance over the last 2 peaks (3 weeks), and a 800 support, is the likely scenario. But if you think about the big picture. It’s really just a head and shoulders formation, which will take us lower into 2 weeks from now. If you look at old charts you’ll see that we might be at a point of reversal. I actually think too many ppl think that way, and that justified one big move lower before this is over.
11:47am
we are getting a bear flag formation, a nice entry point for an additional short is 83.55$. I will have a video up for you tonight around 6:30-7 pm so that you can look at my charts and see how i traded this up and downturn this week.
3:11am
If you had to vote, where would you place your bets for next week’s market action? Up or Down?
Futures are up slightly after a great earnings announcement from AMZN, but more news of EPS cuts will come in the future for the rest of the sectors, how will that fare?
jerry….there goes 825…=/ looks like we lost this one. regroup!
Don’t know why I chose 825 anyway – have to get better at seeing where the resistance and support levels are. At least your 828 put up a strong fight!
there’s a bounce coming…3 waves of it…
it shall be fierce and wreak havoc! (at least 20 points or so)
just gotta wait for it…
Ha ha. I’m thinking back to how my lovely wife distracted me and kept me from going long at 827.50!
that my friend, is love. haha
I bet we should see 818 today. It really looks like we are going to crash and burn into the close.
Sold 1/2 early put position in case we bounce in the last 10 like yesterday
JPM trying to turn to the upside to early , still has another $1 to drop.
Sold SRS…it kissed the top of the big picture channel…had a hangman on 10 and 5 min. (or close to it).
Will look again for other chances.
Nice volume. One more push on to GH Day
Channel check:
http://i44.tinypic.com/2mgqk2x.png
You’re the man. Taking a shot at holding over the weekend. Only crap paly was CSCO calls early. Overall a great month. Can’t wait ’til Monday.
Thinking the pushback came 10 minutes early. Need a dive into the close.
just dumped all long term cash in TIP……well not really all of it.
I’ll look back at that in about 2 years.
out of SRS and SDS….nice cha ching….this Bud’s for you Permabear.
i’m off the short train till smoke clears
Just a reminder of what I said earlier – Don’t mess with your DADDY!
January 30th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
817 might be a good turning point based on a previous bottom and the larger wave 2 wedge width calc. Let’s see. Val, IMO.
Have a geat weekend. Trying to pick the superbowl is more diffcult than reading the charts. When in doubt go with the D. I like the Steelers.
If this leg is like the last leg, we may not bounce much.
http://i43.tinypic.com/s3nk0n.png
S – where does that trendline come from? in that chart it doesn’t look like it existed until a few days after 1st hit. 740 though is a convincing place to expect a bounce…
I’m your huckleberry , I say we crash and burn right threw 817 Monday.
I have no issues with crasing Monday. Still in my SDS from Tuesday, just never had a set to add enough to make a difference. Looking at charts a crash over the weekend is a good possibility.
Turning point – bad choice of words. Pause would have been better. Good call S135. Thanks for the call out. You’re right. I still got the 817 part though.
Cardinals win – Crash
Steelers win – PPT double-quntuples down and we get a small pop up.
Cardinals Blowout.
Like anything, buy low, sell high. Public on Cardinals.
Go Steelers.
Would anyone dare hold SRS over night here?
We wound up forming a really nice channel down over the past two days.
Have a great weekend. It is beer-thirty for me.
Next week is going to be heavy on the job reports..
Wed – ADP report
Thurs – Weekly Claims
Fri – Jan unemployment
I’ts all priced in, remember? I would not worry about that. LOL
Have a great weekend. Tini time. in 7 minutes. Holding the under of course for Super Bowl. lol
OIL is getting awfully boring these days . how the hell is it holding up here? im out of the trade for small gain again.
clearly i jumped the gun a couple of bux early on SRS but … wow… that trade sure worked out. buy on fear… sell on greed.
May not yet be at the end of this five wave move from 877. Can count all the little minuette waves and may head down in one more wave to finish at 818. Then backtest the channel up to the 62% retrace at 855-857.
With no MACD divergence on the hourly, it is not set up to turn for days. Maybe it parks for a spell. More likely it continues south hard.
Have a good weekend. Good trading all.
TRIX rolling over again on the 10m SPX.
Un oh.
hmm…obama talks on telephone with china’s president this morning…hmmm…bad bank idea “won’t work”…hmm…maybe China is tired of funding us?
That’s why I went in big time on TIP today.
Like it. Plus a what…4,5% yield! Cool
Checkout the DOW – someone really didn’t want the headline of “dow closes under 8000″ to print
Lousy bulls kept us over 8000. Just barely!
a Measly .86 LOL.
NY ROUNDUP – Friday, January 30, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US 4Q GDP drops 3.8% – better than expected
Chicago PMI 33.3 in January from 35.1 in December – weaker than expected
Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment for January 61.2 from 60.1 – as expected
US ECRI weekly leading economic index drops to 107.3 or 24% negative growth rate
CNBC sources: US “bad bank” plan may be put on hold
Canadian November GDP dropped 0.7% – worse than expected
COMMENTS
Today was about the 4Q GDP print being less painful than feared but not enough to keep the markets on track to bring stability – many point to the fact that inventories growing merely take future growth outlooks lower as a key factor in how markets traded today. The raw nerves over the economy remain as we continue to get disappointing 4Q earnings, weak forward looking data – Chicago PMI – and more jitters about jobs. Overall it was not a fun month-end – as equities close down again off 2% for the day and about 8.5% worse than the start of January –leaving the first 5 days slight positive at odds with the other stock market rule of as January goes so goes they year. The chasing of momentum was not a successful strategy in any market this month as trends fall prey to ranges. We close bonds end down again but not far from the start of the month with 10Y at 2.86%. Biggest move was in front end with many talking about the FED Schedule D funds and bank plans. The focus on gold and oil remains key to those concerned about inflation and currencies. Gold stands out for its $928 close and its trend sustaining. Oil doesn’t but hasn’t strayed from its modest ranges. For FX the movement in EUR/JPY mimics the equity weakness and drives the risk-off barometer. EUR ends at 1.2795 – below its 1.35 start and near its monthly low – still well between the 4Q broad 1.47-1.23 range. The JPY closes just shy of 90 but well below the 92 start and stuck in the 94 to 87 range. Perhaps the stand out confusion over correlation isn’t in rates to FX but to commodities as the AUD/GOLD trade breaks down. AUD closes at the monthly lows at .6350 not back to the .6010 low of October but in the zone where the RBA and intervention became a topic of consideration. Intervention risks were clearly at play in other currencies in January – besides in JPY near 87 many feared some action from the Swiss. Today saw the Swiss FinMin suggest they support any action from the SNB to weaken the CHF. The plan explicitly state by SNB Hildebrand was reversed by SNB Roth yesterday and the EUR/CHF in 2 days reversed from 1.52 to 1.48 near where the cross opened the month and not far from the 1.4650 low. So FX had its bumps and bruises but the volatility was notably constrained compared to the last quarter. Lower volatility didn’t bring new investors but merely reflected the concerns over risks and rewards. Most go home expecting bigger news over the weekend as the Obama Administration struggles to deliver credible change in the economy rather than platitudes or scape-goats for the present mess.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.2777 1.2902 Close: 1.2792
JPY/USD 89.44 90.09 Close: 89.86
JPY/EUR 114.59 115.79 Close: 114.9489
USD/GBP 1.4246 1.4499 Close: 1.4451
GBP/EUR 0.8833 0.9027 Close: 0.8852
CHF/USD 1.1547 1.166 Close: 1.1626
CHF/EUR 1.4837 1.4996 Close: 1.4872
USD/AUD 0.6345 0.6423 Close: 0.6356
CAD/USD 1.2245 1.2425 Close: 1.229
NZD/USD 0.5050 0.5125 Close: 0.5063