12:20pm
Took profits at 82.65$ on the spy, the SSO trade = 1.15% +
12:04pm
I bought SSO when the SPY was at 82.04 with a stop at 81.80, and a target of 82.60 on the SPY.
11:58am
Volume picking up to the downside, and we are hovering under 82$ on the SPY. If we close this next candle above i will buy some SSO for a potential rise to double top area, if we close below i’ll wait due to uncertainty in the market.
11:51am
We’re getting a bull flag formation on the SPY, descending volume and candles, with a nice potential support around 82-82.20.
11:02am
Volume picking up now, so maybe we can get a breakout afterall (dismiss last comment). 20 and 50 SMA necktie forming resistance, but if that breaks that could be a nice push higher.
10:59am
Very nice bull flag forming here, it looks like a good short opportunity with a stop above 82.
2:35am
The futures are now trading just around 820, which is close to the 82.00 SPY level that is very important support. Once this breaks I do believe we have further downside. But you have to play a very tight stop here. We are in what I think is wave 5 (2) which is a small little consildation upwards period before a big move lower. And so, if we move below 82.00 and you start shorting, you should be covering very tightly above 82.00 on the SPY. That said, i do believe after this small updraft higher is over (which can take us as high as 87+) we will be seeing a massive sell off.
we failed again right around the high of yesterday at about 84 on the SPY.
Looks like it may be breaking down now
In on 1K shares of FAZ at 60.66. Hold?
Well, if you are holding with a 3% trailing stop limit…maybe?
I don’t trust the financials this week…Obama, CEO mess, China, Dollar.
stubborn bulls today….They should be getting tired…
it will fake us out over and over and then break when least expected. they know many fear holding short over the weekend so maybe just this time it will break on a Monday. wouldnt that be interesting. how many times have we had bad Fridays and called out for a Black Monday. this market will break when least expected and after so many Mondays gone good… maybe just maybe this is the psychology they are looking for.
any thoughts? this make sense?
No, I have to agree that the bearish sentiment makes one concur that the opposite is most likely not going to happen this time, this I am rather uncertain about positively speaking.
lol, obviously nothing is certain and you certainly make that unclear
By the same token, I would fear being long over the weekend, esp. with more (likely dismal) earnings coming out next week. I would expect some of those longs who rode this baby up from morning lows would like to take some profits EOD.
Should still crack. It likes sitting on that trendline, but mamma STO says “No,” too dangerous up there. RSI about to go.
http://i39.tinypic.com/2z8rpzl.png
yeah just a matter of time…looks like that 834 was its last effort…i think they’re ready to give in now. =) market needs to behave.
Geez, would ya sell of already!
My gut tells me this thing is consolidating more for one last push up. But, my indicators are saying sell!
834…getting scary…tight stops…
fall to 822 or so. that is when im selling my SRS.
Woo,
You believe we can get all the way to 804 today? Or somewhere in between?
hmm…hard to say. the last few days the resistances have been 827-828, 822, and 817-818.
i think this 827 area will battle a bit, then down to 822. with one hour left, i’m not sure how low we’re headed. it’s also a little scary to hold anything overnight. i might opt to get out around 822 or 818.
since we’re wedging, you can add 1-2 points to each fib retrace number since it’s getting tighter in there.
i don’t know if we’ve got the push we need to go lower than the 807 number just yet…might go back up before that.
maybe I’m drawing my trendline slightly different but I still don’t show the intraday uptrend broken. I have us kind of bouncing along on it.
ok- broken now for sure
finally…good call S135
sweet chart and call s135…You da man!!!
Thos 10m moving averages are supportive, and the SPY VWAP is at 82.37.
Hard to say where it will settle out.
The bull puts on a pretty good push.
wedge played out perfectly. up 12%+ and counting. good times! congrats to all those that joined us with shorts=P
Question now…was that a fake out over the top of the triangle only to crash through the bottom?
Usually.
Wonder if Geittner has the keys to the PPT room yet?
covered HOG. Still pissed that I caught denied on SHLD at 44.50
Does anyone have an SPX target for the end of day?
840
Tough to call, but I’d expect selling into the close due to a failed 2-day push, with a drop to S1 at 812 by EOD. Wild guess and nothing more.
Anybody else want the gold charts or weekly Citi technicals? They come out every Thursday afternoon. Covers equities, currencies, commodities, interest rates etc. I’m not going to post the charts here because I could get into trouble. If you want a copy then just send me an e-mail and tell me if you want gold, weekly tehnicals or both.
pmesdjian@yahoo.com
GE a buy under 12?
That is what I thought, but several analyst said today that closer to 10 is more like it. So, I am going to wait.
ok guys now what?..
we going to short a retest of the lower trend line? that s135 showed?
similar Oct 17-20, still wave 2 until Mon-Tue , they will try 860-865. Play the zigzag until 860 then load up shorts
Ha! That thought crossed my mind too cindy. This corrective stuff is very difficult to count. A quick scalp here and there but nothing for very long. Soon as you think you have a huge winner, the tide turns. I’m on the sidelines until I can make sense of a direction.
This upward channel today on the 1 minute could be a double zigzag to 838, then a correction to 825 (38%) or 821 (50%), then possibly another move up, perhaps to 858 (c=a). Or it could all just tank from here. I’m laying low for now.
Way to much overhead supply imo. This market just can’t climb. Everytime the chartist expect even a modest rally, the market falls short due to a wall of anxious sellers above.
s and p red…anyone want to call close…one poster said def. between 820-830..keep everyone up in the air..
823
822.50
I’ll call 830 (which probably means 820)
Tough to call, but I’d expect selling into the close due to a failed 2-day push, with a drop to S1 at 812 by EOD. Wild guess and nothing more.
I’ll go contrarian and say 840
as i stated yesterday … sell days come in pairs. we cant finish above the open or everyone will call me a liar. however, 1 point below the open is not a sell day for a permabear. we need 822… i command it.
The close depends on one stock GE…if it catches a bid we go higher…if it continues to sell-off we go lower….
my call is 840…even though I’m basically all in on short..I make this call knowing the market is designed to make me poor and unstable. You guys can all make money but i’m going to lose all mine
Thank you. We need you man.
Burn.
Hi permabear,
thanks much for sharing your views on oil, I made some $$ on that a couple of days back. I think you should be right since DOW is strongly in the red..
Triangle break-up. There were two big ones last year. Feb 1-21 and Oct 13-20, both broke the upper trendline before dropping
Looks like all my wedges on the 15m SPX chart ar turning into Acending triangles. That’s good for the bears. Might get some decent action next week to the downside. Might take more than just bad earnings as numb as everyone is to catapult us to a new bottom. All I hesr is “it’s all priced into the market” or “we’re expecting that” – My Ass you were or it was. If that’s true then why aren;t you pricing in the recovery. What a bunch of crap. Bottom line is the longer we go the more time the govt has to put together its BS plan to fool the public and what wonderful things it will do for us type BS to keep the market propped up. Please let us just have capitulation so we can go forward.
Have a great weekend.
Thanks Shanky – Love your charts!
fear has entered the market … fear for those short. im sure there will be some serious covering here soon. not by me… im not so wise. but by some im sure.
my heart could not last more than 2 minutes in SRS and the short oil i took on the channel re-entry. ….. thats it for me today. but, im staying in all of my short positions at least until WEDS. good luck all.
anyone thinking of holding over the weekend?
Yes – if im in the money with my Strike 79 SPY puts…
Yessir. I am long oil and financials. MIght bail on the latter trade, but holding oil for sure.
I’m holding SRS till at least 62.5 and its looking like that may not happen today, so yeah…
Yeah I’m most likely holding FAZ into Monday. Currently slightly in the red @ avg. cost $63.80.
im holding a portfolio of shorts which i added onto some that hit the 50dma. im amazed we fared so well today… not. nothing amazes me and i will not give up until WEDS. no 3x etfs for me over the weekend. ill have a heart attack
long TBT, AUY, SH, and TNA
holding all over the weekend
All that’s happeneing now is an attempted backtest of the 10m RSI trendline.
im just glad to be out of any 3x ETFs and that last OIL scalp. have a crap load of equities short and one long. good enough for me. see what monday brings. clearly they want to sell a positive day LOL> even if its a 1 point gain.
Are you holding any SRS, Richard?
The BULL retreat should start right about …….
3:30 selloff? If it cracks 825 s135 may win the guessing game at 812.
C looks like a bull flag on the day…
We will have had 3 white candle sticks since the big drop on 1/20…and we still have not been able to recover the price. The market is looking weaker than expected.
And the dreaded Ira Epstein’s “embedded stochastics” too!
BULL TRAP he says.
wow…unless you were long today or covered the dips..you hated the day as much as me!
Bought BGU going into the close. It was bear’s fight to lose. And they lost it. Simple as that..
heading lower after hours….. if we dont go crazy watching this market ill be amazed.
yeah i saw the AH movement. i guess i’m happy i at least made money in the morning. i hope we wake up on monday to a pleasant surprise with our stock market tanking.
It’s gonna close on a backtest touch of the channel. Hmmm….
puhahahaha. wtf.
still up 8% going into the weekend. *throws hands up in the air*
monday morning will be an interesting day. good LUCK!
OK guys …insatiable, S135, Woo…. can expect to see some new charts this weekend?…I get barrons tomorrow morning and it would be nice to have some real solid opinions/charts to read while I skim their nonsense about this market having value…Thanks in advance…A good weekend to all…
foolsgold
I’m just sitting on SRS, bought at a decent price, ignoring the squiggles here that get others so excited. One day it will triple or something, and when it does, i will sell it and wait for another opportunity. I’ll put the pocket change into some hot penny stock when it looks to be a good buy. And yeah, the neighbors do seem a lot friendlier since I started buying their Xmas presents after accessing
http://www.veuve-clicquot.com
and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veuve_Clicquot
i gave 9% back to the market over the past 2 days. market… please say thank you. im out on weds and im thinking ill get that back before weds and finish up the month up a chunk.
dont be a stubborn short in anything. can give you a big ouchy.
good luck next week. im thinking im short the rest of what i have until Weds. the market has not moved an inch in 3 days but appears to be making higher lows with a hidden new low today pre-market. that makes things quite interesting indeedy.
NY ROUNDUP – Friday, January 23, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury Nominee Geithner: Calls for stronger derivative, hedge fund rules
US ECRI weekly leading economic index drops to 107.4
University of Michigan survey shows record share of US homeowners see prices fall
Belgium January business sentiment bounces to -27.7 from 31.3 – better than expected
COMMENTS
For the day, New York didn’t offer much new to the on-going debate about the global financial and economic crisis. Recessions are confirmed and deflation follows. But the price action suggested something different than many of the headlines. We close equities up about 0.5% after spending most of the morning down nearly 2%. The drop in UK GDP 4Q to -1.5% q/q led to a knee-jerk selling of GBP to 28 year lows but we close back over the critical 1.3780 technical line. The EUR did the same dropping below the 1.2850 level for much of the morning but we close above. The USD rally fizzled in late New York trading as oil rebounded from down 3% to up 4% on the day. Most point to the usual set of anecdotal evidence that the OPEC cuts in production are working to explain why we settle oil over $45 bbl having spent some time below $40 during the week. The biggest move on the week was gold – and some even point to the yellow metal as a driver of the oil move. Gold has moved from inflation hedge to alternative currency this week closing just shy of $900 oz. The pressure on all major G7 currencies excluding JPY stands out as a significant story to watch. But its not always that simple – consider the gains today in CAD which despite 1% rates and expectations for more outperforms. This gain from 1.26 to 1.23 today can be ascribed to commodities gaining, surplus countries being rewarded and to a turn-around in sentiment. The turn-around may be worth studying as the larger risk for equities, bonds, and other value currencies into the weekend and next week. The role of Canada as the largest trading partner for the US, the biggest alternative manufacturing center and the provider for much of its energy and water puts any gains in Canada as early warning signal for good news for the larger NAFTA regional economy. So what do you expect to see over the weekend? 1) More leaks about the Obama bad bank plan to help ease the financial crisis and get banks back to lending. This may mean a more explicit plan of the FED getting more TARP money to have capital to start another national bank to buy bad assets at market. Implication is that financials could be in for a bounce should the market get the right story at the right time. 2) More talk about the Chinese and how they will react after the Chinese New Year to the Geithner/Obama comments on CNY. Many expect more ugly reactions to any threats including risk for downside to US treasuries. 3) More talk of intervention. The G7 comment that floated over the week pointing out the GBP misalignment won’t go away – watch for more European comments on this and perhaps the SEK, NOK and other currencies CE4? The G7 meeting will grow as a risk event for February 14 in Paris. Biggest risk in intervention seems the cheapest to express – with CHF comments being explicit. EUR/CHF long-dated volatility stands out as an opportunity. 4) US GDP and FOMC. The biggest events for the economic calendar next week revolve around the 4Q GDP and what it means for 1Q forecasts and beyond. 5% GDP forecasts seem to be the consensus but risk of another uglier print and what it means to the market shouldn’t be ignored. FOMC meeting will be watched for any tea leaves as to further QE actions. Will inflation targeting or absolute targets for QE be put into discussion? The fate of USD rests with how both of these data points print – so expect comments on it. 5) The month-end flows. We are set to end January down in equities. This will grab press time this weekend. Flows into and out of bonds have been dramatic and will also lead to focus as many expect another significant reweighting of portfolios. Risk of month-end squeezes doesn’t seem to be fully priced.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
USD/EUR 1.2768 1.3035 Close: 1.2977
JPY/USD 88.11 89.63 Close: 88.8
JPY/EUR 112.89 115.95 Close: 115.2358
USD/GBP 1.3535 1.3809 Close: 1.3762
GBP/EUR 0.934 0.9468 Close: 0.943
CHF/USD 1.1531 1.1717 Close: 1.1569
CHF/EUR 1.4915 1.5033 Close: 1.5013
USD/AUD 0.6417 0.6589 Close: 0.6557
CAD/USD 1.2267 1.2648 Close: 1.234
NZD/USD 0.5172 0.5322 Close: 1.8857
If anybody wants the Citi weekly technicals, just let me know. Comes out every Thursday afternoon. It’s 38 pages of charts (currencies, commodities, equities, interest rates, etc)
pmesdjian@yahoo.com
Up 7% today on scalping two trades. TC-long and HOG-short.
In cash for the scary weekend. Missed some opportunities but my system is working so far.
Bought 1k shares of FAZ at $60.66 and sold half an hour later at $63.00. I’m happy with that since I’ve been sitting on my hands all week. Thanks to all who provided valuable insight today…Woo, S135, Richard, Tom, et al. Have a great weekend all.