6:19pm
Should have a video up soon, to give you my view on the market.
11:43am
Markets are falling back down today, on slightly stronger volume. This doesn’t mean this updraft is done. But I do believe we are bound to get an updraft to around 85.50$ (38.2% retracement from the start of this fall), which will mark the elliot wave 5 (sub2). I do believe this elliott wave 5 should take us to at least a double bottom (around 720-740), and that things look very grim out there, as EPS forcasts need to be cut dramatically for 09.
The market seems to be trading in the 805 to 845 channel for the last 3 days. It has support at 805 to 810 and runs into resistance between 840 and 845. Sooner or later it will break out of this channel and this will give us the direction the market is going to take.
Heavy volume in GE Feb and March puts.
Gee I can’t wait for GE earnings that should be interesting to watch pre market on Friday. This market is like a casino and even the EW analysis is becoming challenging on a daily basis.
I want to be able to sleep tonight. I’m all cash.
Enjoyed the day. Made a little money. We could still be in a a-b-c wave 2 up, but I’m inclined to defer to woo and s135 after this ugly day.
Anything is possible. The buyers were tough today so the A-B-C 2 can’t be tossd out. Good to be watching both.
yeah…with this crazy market it doesn’t even matter if you have your wave counts correct because of all these stupid corrections left and right. i can’t even explain most of the movement that’s been going on, just where we should be overall, but i might not even be right.
we’ll see where it heads tomorrow. goodness! what a day…
Microsoft slams stocks; sideways trade may last some time yet
Last Update: 1/22/2009 3:29:00 PM MARKETWATCH
With even Microsoft Corp. unable to predict the future, the market is likely facing for weeks to come a steady stream of companies offering equally murky views of the year, in what analysts say is part of the bottoming process for stocks.
I favor a pop down.
got some google puts
shorting Sears overnight. My damn washer just broke at 5 years and 15 days!
The automatic self destruct mechanism was off by 2 weeks.
in #27, I said this “pulse” (closing update in parenthesis):
My big sentiment pulse read test(s) for today
1. Microsoft closes at a new 52 week low (17.50 prev low, now trading at 17.75) CHECK: MSFT closed at 17.10
2. Apple closes lower or flat or up by less than 2% DIdn’t happen. Apple closed strong. Up 6.7%
3. Regional banks, BBT and MBT close down for the day. Both closed low on the day – set new 52 week low intraday
If two of the three happen, I would expect new lows soon.
———————————–
Update: Since two of the three happened, my unconventional read on the market is that sentiment is that new lows are coming.
Google beat the number and the stock is traded 12 points higher a 317. Given the huge moves in Google stock after previous reports, this is a yawn.
Noted!
Many thanks!
Elliotwave.com is saying S&P may go up to 870 before heading straight down to 650.
could happen…my hands are up in the air for now…
Actually they’re saying a down move, an up move to finish wave 4, then wave 5 will begin. (I’m not providing the numbers since it’s a pay service and I don’t want to get kidnapped in the middle of the night for repeating the details)
I was hoping for a drop to the 804 region before up to the 870 region… I’m still upsidedown on my SPY puts for now.
804 and below is coming as per EWI before the move up at which point wave 4 will be considered complete.
COF missed big and stock is doing an orderly retreat
See the uneasiness on the faces of the female CNBC anchors/reporter in reporting on Porn industry.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=991008568
She just needs someone to take her home and show her what’s what.
surely they don’t need a “stimulis” plan?
Yep, and I’m the perfect man for the job.
I got dibbs on Rebecca J.
Well….YOU go spend a day at a porn convention. Then we’ll see what your face looks like when you try to report about it.
But I love the expression on journalists face when she reported about the “next hot thing”, – porn on your black-berry. It took A LOT of effort to try not look appalled about the thought of some 60-something CEO playing with his….
I also found the comment at the end about the future of music industry very intriguing… Porn industry have apparently always stood at the front of the cutting edge technology, when it comes to distributing their material. If they can’t handle the piracy and are going belly up in these times, then I honestly don’t have any home for the music and film-industry.
Does anybody know if Yorba TV stopped broadcasting? I’ve been looking in periodically and haven’t seen an archive for weeks.
They are seeking sponsorships.
I see. Thanks for letting me know. Perhaps they’ll get a gov’t bailout if they can’t find a sponsor.
They wont come back on till they meet there quota… In this market maybe weeks or months….
if we dont gap to 817 i’ll be suprised. the pattern today almost matched my map but just moved faster than i thought.
just a little stress to make a measly $350.
is there an easier way to make money? ill get long something longer term with 2 days left in the month. even a permabear knows when to hide for cover
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, January 22, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury Secretary Geithner: Repeats strong USD policy, will act to move on China CNY
US OFHEO home price index for November drops 1.8% m/m – worse than expected.
US weekly jobless claims rise 62,000 to 589,000 – worse than expected
US December housing starts drop 15.5% to 550,000 annual rate – worst on record
ECB Trichet: Global economy to start rebounding in 2010
COMMENTS
Today’s list of worries overwhelmed the “Hopium” that has been flowing freely over the US markets Favorite chart for bulls overlays the misery of the 1933 Inauguration to the next 100 days and finds a substantial rally back in equities. Good news from a few companies wasn’t enough to keep equities out of the red or bonds from going even lower – the 30Y is now 3.26% – up another 8 bps with curve 2/30Y 12 bps steeper. Fact that both equities and bonds are going down and the USD wavered from its recent rally suggests something ugly is going on before the Obama team can even start on its way to action. To be fair, Equities did rally back into the close as financials rallied on talk of the “bad bank” plan. Google beat after hours to continue the rebound. The oil market shook off another big inventory report closing down just 35 cents and the gold market continued to rally. FX was flat to slightly weaker for the USD as EUR held in to its recent ranges settling at 1.30 and JPY was shy of 87 staying close to 89. The fear barometers of EUR/JPY close at 115.50 – about where we started and AUD and CAD both are well off their worst levels despite weak data. The point of the day was that weaker jobless claims, housing starts, housing prices, drops in CP issuance, none of that was the lightening rod for action – with words from Geithner and Trichet the key focus again. US Presidents are usually accorded the respect of a calm market for the first 100 days of their administration. Some are even rewarded by it as in the case of FDR. The Obama team has yet to check in on this as the Senate continues to grind forward on approving cabinet positions. What has happened is that expectations for action are high and the time allowed for the actual delivery short. So the multitude of issues facing the world crashes down – from Chinese growth and US trade, to the Palestinian truce, the Iraq / US troop presence, the Afghan war with the new Taliban and the state of global trade, economy, financials. The first step has been to send the previous Clinton diplomats to the regions. The second is to get the previous Clinton Economic advisors into the cabinet and into action. Many want to see more of the Obama team – and the new President won’t be allowed much time for any honeymoon as a consequence. The plan ahead for financials is far from clear and needs careful description – as many whisper of a bad bank plan to buy distressed assets from the world. This should relieve the stressed balance sheets and with time lead to new lending. But many are still doubtful that even if you want to lend anyone will borrow. The devil is in the details – and as we have learned from the UK the delivery matters. Honeymoons for Obama and markets will only follow if the “hopium” previously delivered follows with real solutions and real actions.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2908 1.3030 Close: 1.3019
USD/JPY 88.07 89.36 Close: 89.08
EUR/JPY 113.97 116.16 Close: 115.97
GBP/USD 1.3690 1.3915 Close: 1.3876
EUR/GBP 0.9345 0.9467 Close: 0.9382
USD/CHF 1.1511 1.1585 Close: 1.1532
EUR/CHF 1.4925 1.5046 Close: 1.5013
AUD/USD 0.6491 0.6595 Close: 0.6590
USD/CAD 1.2518 1.2741 Close: 1.2532
NZD/USD 0.5225 0.5312 Close: 0.5289
Vix seems heading lower to 45 before higher. It was at 52 around noon but closed down at 47. My guess is spx 860-870 next.