9:28am
Hey guys, today we are getting a slight push higher on the futures. I do believe volume will be low. So look in for fibonacci retracements, especially the 50% as possible short trades.
Intraday Commentary ~ 01/21/09
– January 21, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
WOO MAN talk to us
busted 825…838 target?
i really shouldn’t start saying anything yet. but at 835 (my 50 retrace) i’m probably going to put.
i don’t see us slowing down now (in general, we’ll get occasional consolidation). the question will ultimately be how high do we retrace – for 2 of 5ers, it’s the 50/61 fibs between 860-880 or higher. for those tracking different waves, 838 is probably your lowest high. i favor the former
Still a bearish upwedge/flag on 15-min chart of $SPX, and the fin & R/E indexes $DJUSFN and $DJUSRE, all with the last 15-min candle resisted at upper wedge boundary. Probably not much upside here. Still holding all SRS.
the moves in the $DJUSRE and IYR are almost comical
outside of the whipsaws in the financials i rarely ever see so many intraday 5+% moves in an entire index.
you can almost bank on any small rally pushing these two up 5-8% intraday. unreal
im going to get some SRS at EOD… IYR is basically doing a 50% retrace of yesterdays move. struggling to do so too.
SRS may be way oversold. Check.
FAZ too….wish I had the guts to play those.
Wait a couple of days for FAZ. I won’t be surprised if it falls back to 40 or lower before the next major move. At least that’s my target.
A bit early on my pullout of AAPL calls but still happy. Going for a small short position in case it tanks after earnings tonight.
giddy up
This wave 2 bounce started at 804.30. Wave (a) went to 817.31 for a 13 point gain. Wave (b) ended at 811.47. If c = a * 1.62 then (c) will end around 832.50. Then we should drop down at least to the 38% mark at 822.
in SRS at $63… small amount. to creepy
SRS is looking good here, I’m just not too sure if I have the pair to hold over night. Thoughts on its possible lows?
im doubting we get to 838 but who knows. im not counting on it.
this half way between my call for 827 and 838 so ill take some here
and see what happens.
the low for SRS … $45 ish. the high… astronomical. i have to stick with my down leg thoughts. im thinking we are in a down leg that ends this week so im looking for short opportunities. i’ll get out if we get below 800 and observe. until then im looking for shorts. if im wrong that is ok too. just hope im right.
oil made a 10% move today. nuts. will it retrace half that tomorrow. im not betting on it.
the bears are paying for their greedyness
both SRS and FAZ under RSI30 for a little while. Sure seems like a good entry point if you think the market is going down from here…
oil is looking toppy here. but im not going short that overnight. someone will blow something up. only like shorting oil intraday.
is anyone going to try to get short the first res level 835?
i am =) it’s my 50 retrace from 804-865.
its also my 2 of 5 downward. i’m calling 3 down tomorrow.
what’s your target on the 3 down
lower than 804 if it’s really the 3 wave down.
i don’t want it to be the 3 down, but at this moment that’s what i’m leaning on.
waiting till 835, then jumping in with tight stops. if it goes 842, then im buying there with puts and tight stops.
at the moment i don’t think we’ll be seeing anything higher than 842, if even that.
Cool, you’re going with the wave 2 running flat scenario that Daneric charted last night as a secondary count. Yep, I’m seeing that, but with the c = a * 1.62 you may not get to 838 – might be more like 833.
i got SRS when we hit 833
that might have been the sweet spot. good job. if it doesn’t headed higher again, i might get in before closing.
i feel like buying Bac??? I must be getting sick?
Know the feeling….It’s the red white and blue thing. I heard Obama is going to change the logo and colors so I’m over it.
Out of my TNA… not feeling good about the end of day
i never feel good about any long position… that is why i watch the upswings and scale in at resistance levels. before when i played rallies i couldnt sleep at night. sleeping is good. that is why im the permabear. bears sleep good.
made some losing trades today but i only gave up a bit of what i made in the last 2 and may get it all back and more tomorrow. if we rally we rally but im not going to count on it.
i’m with jerry, i just see this current action as an overdue down corrective wave before we’re back up riding 2. it’ll help reset indicators as well
LOL, I don’t even think I’m with Jerry at this point! Woo and Daneric are seeing this as a Wave 2 running flat that should end at 838 – then wave 3 down HARD. I’m going to have to look at what levels will tell me which scenario is playing out.
Look at Daneric’s second chart at:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/20-jan-elliott-wave-update
yeah, but look at Jerry’s chart in the same post! lol. i find dan very reliable, but ewavers i trust more are actually on your side. we’ll see what happens but my data jives :p
woo whats your target for the short at 835?
this move we just made is broad based. almost everything in my list is moving higher.
boy, this sure seems like a spectacular setup for big money on the swing. Financials are overbought and short ETF are oversold. However! Obama has been working all day on his plans and I personally expect some announcement this evening.
835 cracked. 838 is the next big ?
maybe my 838 will get hit after all. im going to add SRS at 838 and then that is it for me. got some cash now too.
SRS hit below 62.50 which i have targeted as a strong buy point… but we didnt get to 838 yet. one more surge?
Ditto on the back to cash.
Pretty sweet day – we’re all hooked on market moves over 200 pts/dy. what we going to do if it ever gets back to “normal”?
62 a good price for srs or wait till tomorrow to buy???
yes… but im greedy.. i have a buy order in at $61.50… eod fear sell-off possible.
what’s this 838 number people are throwing around/?
could be an endpoint for a flat 2. i’m not playing that angle though
It’s a 61.8% retracement on the SPX from 858 to 804.
boy oh boy. And Spy actually looks like it has some rubber left before the day ends.
FAZ and SRS at almost the same price right now! Both so very tempting …
im gunning to get filled at 61.50… maybe ill regret it
FILLED
got it 59.90 but im losing about 200
I hope tomorrow will be a better day
Dang,
Gone for an hour or so – everything changes. All FAZ gained yesterday is gone today. As usual, I paid the price for not using stops as a strategy.
I wonder if there is an announcement coming after the close.
Or, is this beginning of Obama bounce.
the annoucements are the scary part. From what I have heard today it might be a big bank package. I am really tempted to buy/swing SRS. No way on FAZ, but that is just me.
More Negative DM divergence on SRS! Holy Moly. What is going on? Someone knows something. I’m going to stay away. Good luck everyone.
(subject to change in the next 4 minutes
)
oh,,,the temptation…been in cash for last couple of days…itchy trigger finger.
Unless there is some news to followup with this rise, parabolic moves (up or down) like this will be followed by vertical corrections
exactly….but Mohan….what is rule #1
I know I know.
With FAZ, you can only use intraday stops. GTC stops are useless as this thing always gaps up or down. Anyway, I was going to come in time to close, if need be. Just happen to be away in those fateful minutes. I am still up, but lost most of the gains.
I whistled real loud awhile ago hoping you’d hear and get your b— back to close that FAZ tade…but no answer. Chin up- thigs change very quickly these days.
Thanks Valarie. I am not used to keeping my eyes glued to markets! I did that for 4 months Sept-Dec and it was too much for me.
Anyway I was going to come in time to close, if need be. Just happen to be away in those fateful minutes. I am still up, but lost most of the gains.
Action at USB today….got in at $12.75 and out at $16.14. Nice day for a bull on that particular financial. Still learning the TA and relying on instinct mostly, which lucky for me was on today. Don’t think going long is smart on any financials though. Any thoughts on that?
oil looks finished for the day…
return to DUG soon.
oil is so overbought. everything is overbought. but remember. that doesnt mean we are heading lower. but im counting on it for tomorrow. good luck all. im done trading today.
838 crossed and that’s all she wrote folks. only bad news can break us now
bear market rallies are incredible…makes my parents think we’re happy and life is ok…
dumping TBT
I’m in SSO puts at SPX 841.
Jerry, how far down you holding?
Not far, I’ll be out by SPX 827.30 (38% retrace, assuming that 841.47 was the end of the wave). Then I’ll wait to see if we break 812 (79% retrace). If we do, we’re in wave 3. If we go back up above 842 then we’re in wave 2.
is everyone dumping their shorts now…this su cks..I lost my a$$ today…what a fcking joke..
seriously… look at that last candle on the IYR on the 10min
serious LOL
WHO is buying that?!
this market and all these bulls deserve whats coming…to bad i’ll be broke by the time the sh4t hits the fan
they aren’t actually bulls…they are traders with more knowledge and resources than we have…
Perhaps but even I saw the double bottom followed by bears being unable to break through 810 once the double bottom was in. I had a long from yesterday, added to it today and rode it up, dupming it all at 835.
The problem with some bears is that while they are right the market is in a downtrend they expect the market to go straight down and it just doesn’t work like that.
Holding my FAZ.. i dont care if it goes to 30.. im selling at 300.
remember that when a stock goes 35% down, it must go 53% up… all direxion etfs are down total since they started out a few months ago, bull as shorts … i’m going back in if the market tomorrow goes the right way
With the simultaneous ridiculous action in financials and real estate, perhaps the ‘bad bank’ idea will be put forth tonight, officially?
yah, the IYR was just buy the rumor…has to be something…because that wasn’t fundamentals or TA.
Crude just moved below it’s 20MA
got puts into tomorrow. looking for a 3 down. with that 4-5% up day…we should have a big drop tomorrow. good luck.
so…the 1 drop would be from 865-804. 61 point drop.
842 was the 61.8% retrace of that drop.
if wave 1 = 61 points
6.618* wave 1 = 99-100 points
842 – 100 = 742 (the 52 week low is 741.02)
so if this is in fact a continued drop, we could head to 780 or as low as 740.
but this could be completely wrong hahaha!
oops i mean 1.618* wave 1
I still don’t buy into 865 being hit on a Sunday A/H counts in fib retracement/ew
Now, FAZ=SRS = 58.00
well lets hope your right or else i’ll be eating catfood…can you redo your wave count woo and make it all look pretty…thanks..
right now my counts aren’t finalized.
i’m still leaning towards a 5 wave down with us being on the 2 of 5 today, and the 3 coming tomorrow. i think dan eric has this option open.
anything i say for the next week…think of it as a hypothesis. i’m fine risking my own money, but i don’t want others to play one of my positions overnight and getting raped by it. playing in intraday you can stop out so it’s less dangerous.
worst case scenario: we go higher to a REAL 865 instead of in futures. but with the 842 range being a 61.8 retrace, there should at least be a bounce downward even if we are headed higher. anyone with puts or shorts can get out before a possible rise.
“there should at least be a bounce downward even if we are headed higher. anyone with puts or shorts can get out before a possible rise.”
Exactly. I’m in SSO puts overnight because of what you just said. Plan to get out at 827 (38% retrace on 804-842) and then watch to see if we break 812 (79% retrace). If we do, then I’ll be riding wave 3 down with you! If we go back above 842 I’ll assume we’re still in Wave 2 up to at least 866.
Sorry, didn’t mean that I made my decision because of YOU saying it. Decision was made on the same belief, that’s all, way before you made your statement. So, if we gap up 50 points in the am pre-market you can know that we both independently made the same huge mistake! lol
guess i was quick on the trigger for SRS. it closed at $57.19… talk about panic selling at EOD. that is insane. guess 61.50 seemed like a steal but it wasn’t.
is SRS in a longer term down trend and the recent rallies simply a corrective move? it feels like a case of oversupply. at the end of many days it dumps off and cant find enough buyers.
anyone who played the upside today… congrats! good trade!
If someone can put SRS in their analysis I would appreciate it. I’ll post what i have in a little bit, trying to figure where to place my stop Richard if you have any insight I would appreciate it. TIA
if i had a stop it would have triggered. that sell off at eod was freakish. it is recovering after hours… up a buck already. im favouring 2 down days after this vicious move. Oil inventories are tomorrow. how oil made that move today is beyond me ..isn’t Obama about alternative energy LOL. i trimmed my postions back just above 825 and then near the end of day went all in again for the next 2 down days. if we start heading above 850 im running for the hills….and probably will have lost everything i made in the past 2 down days.
these wacko bear rallies are tough to call tops on. all i know, im not going to be short much near the end of the month. and i think we have a week left to finish this down leg before we start moving up again. unless of course we start moving up tomorrow again. that will throw my plan out the window.
my call for retrace to 838 did not include the overnight futures…woops. including that # we get 842 as per woo’s calculation.
good luck trading. and like i posted earlier. without risk… no reward. just try to limit your risk or be crushed.
this what I came with for SRS. I think my stop will be around the 56 level.
http://mail.google.com/mail/?ui=2&ik=970cf035b3&view=att&th=11efb225ec811595&attid=0.1&disp=inline&zw
Let me know what yall think
oops…. link doesn’t work
Nice intraday commentary…not. Let’s get Craig back. This site is falling off big time.
So you want somebody to do that amount and quality of work for free, forever???!!!!
FORGET IT!
What kind of subscription fee would you pay? At current membership levels, it probably would have to be about $400/yr to get the minimum level of what you seem to want.
What would it take to get YOU to sit at a keyboard all day?
JEEZ.
i knew that’s what this was all about from the begining.
i wonder if it’s “working out”?
before the day began, I heard on the radio that if C, BAC, WFC and MS and GE all went to 0, the Dow would only lose about 400 points.
That made me start to think, perhaps other companies (collectively) can rally the banks up even though the banks are their foundation.
I think it is a new ball game when the Financials go to such low levels. I’m not smart enough to figure it out, but I am bet that when weighted average drastically change, new macro bias should be incorporated for near term projections. IBM started the day. Under the ‘banks first’ bias, the news would be on page 4. However, it was not just good news, it was great news and personally I don’t care if they lied. IBM represents America and that was better than any Obama speech.
Could confidence have crepted back into the market today? Well, the end of the day sure said so. If I go short in this market, I much consider that ‘confidence and hope’ are my enemies….best to look over my shoulder often because this is the United States of America and it is war.
I am reevaluating the effect of low prices of key bank stocks like B, C, WFC. When the selling stops, it is easy to engineer huge moves in these stocks, which is a negative for FAZ. Unless the financials sell off relentlessly without an intermediate rally, FAZ may never see its all time high.
See the example: when FAZ was at 55 last week, all these financials were at substantially higher prices. Only a moderate rebound in bank shares caused such a drastic reduction in FAZ price. Ouch.
Even during 2000-2002 bear, IBM would announce better-than-expected results and the market would rally only to crap out a couple of weeks later. Later in that bear cycle, IBM had no choice but fess-up, at which time IBM also tanked.
Scenario 1
Lets say
FAZ = 60
FAS = 10
Let’s say, FAS drops (20%) to 8,, that makes FAZ go to 72 in one day.
Scenario 2
Lets say
FAZ = 60
FAS = 10
Now then, FAS drops (90%) to 1 in one day.
That make FAZ go to 114 in one day.
Scenario 3
Lets say
FAZ = 60
FAS = 10
Now then, FAS drops (20%) to 8 in one day.
That make FAZ go to 72 in one day.
Then (next day) FAS drop (25%) to 6, makes FAZ go 90.
Then (next day) FAS drops (33%) to 4, makes FAZ go to $119
Then (next day) FAS drops (25%) to 3, makes FAZ go to 149
Then (next day) FAS drops (33%) to 2, makes FAZ go to 198
Then (next day) FAS drops (50%) to 1, makes FAZ go to 297
So! You want big (and few) FAS up days, and smaller and many FAS down days.
Gonna go cash up an account to buy more FAZ and/or SRS.
hey insatiable I really appreciate the email you sent and all of your advice in it…I am just about “all in” short now so I’m hoping that obama’s team doesn’t go and do something crazy like suspend mark to market and artifically pop the market 500 points..Good luck looking forward to riding this bear down to the bitter end with you…Going to be a tense week.
FAZ @ 54 in AHs!!! WTF? Please tell me this is just some kind of end-of-day imbalance. Will we see 804 again within the next week?
stay calm. SRS and FAZ have some kind of liquidity issue. eod of dumping is common. they have retraced some up move and if you dont panic you can get back your loss. im not going to panic >>>YET… there may be a time to panic but its probably not when the suckers get way over panic sold at eod.
I have been watching all the discussion on Elliott waves. Here’s my 2 cents worth of comments
1. We seem to oscillate between reality and hope. Earnings time is reality and the market drops. If we look at the last earnings cycle, the market bottomed on Nov 4th. We may have a similiar pattern here where the market’s low point will be reached around Feb 4th
2. We are getting news that is having a huge impact on market (like RBS warning). This is distorting the Elliott waves
3. For the next couple of days, I am quite bullish. The news flow has been good, volume decent and many sectors are holding up quite well. I think we will hit 865 on S&P before we turn south
NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, January 21, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury Nominee Geithner: China currency manipulation a big concern
US NAHB Housing Index for January falls to 8 – worse than expected – another record low
SNB Hildebrand: Ready to pull all stops to avoid deflation
Brazil Central Bank Cuts Policy Rate 100bps to 12.75% – more than expected
COMMENTS
The key event today came from the SNB Hildebrand – who explicitly discussed the risk of CHF intervention. This was followed by a source discussing the risk of G7 intervention in GBP or other currencies. We are in the next stage of a recession when countries resort to competitive devaluation as a means to support their economy. Mercantile policy and protectionism may be subtly distinguished but to the troubled world the chaos of currency movements has left many outside of the market. Its hard enough today to ascertain value in a stock or a bond given the confusion over future earnings, dilution of shares, risk of credit and the rule of law. Throw in the noise of a currency moving 30% or more as in the case of GBP and its impossible to say where value lies. Volatility in this particular case merits intervention – so perhaps the next G7 meeting February 13-14 will end with a communiqué that warns of excessive currency moves. In the interim we have the technicals and the raw nerves of shattered investors. GBP broke 1.3680 and then rebounded today – something that may matter if GBP manages to continue to run beyond its 1.4050 resistance and the 1.4350 breakdown. The JPY similarly moved from 90 at 10 am to 87.10 at 11 am but closes at 89.30 – far from the 92-95 envelope where people feel comfortable. So too the EUR – which tested 1.28 and held suggesting a few more days of 1.28-1.32 consolidation. Risks for a more extended move in FX flip from the short-term to a longer-term story now as its going to be about growth. China GDP tonight will matter for most – and AUD should be on the cross-hairs as it has been battered done on back of weak commodities, RBA rate cuts, weak banks and an over-leveraged consumer – making the China future growth a key factor for the 2009 AUD outlook. So it will go – countries that have acted to support easy financial conditions by cutting rates, supporting banks and spending programs – they should reap the benefits of future growth and a stable market. Unfortunately, this has devolved into a uncoordinated effort with many different readings of the problem. We should take heart that FX markets today returned to a range and that the talk of intervention was sufficient to buy some time. For equities this worked well, for bonds not so much and for commodities the more the world lurches towards cheap money the more they want real assets.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2825 1.3040 Close: 1.2945
USD/JPY 87.10 90.17 Close: 89.17
EUR/JPY 112.10 116.78 Close: 115.43
GBP/USD 1.3620 1.3995 Close: 1.3916
EUR/GBP 0.9282 0.9430 Close: 0.9302
USD/CHF 1.1412 1.1617 Close: 1.1583
EUR/CHF 1.4745 1.5042 Close: 1.4994
AUD/USD 0.6459 0.6644 Close: 0.6582
USD/CAD 1.2556 1.2765 Close: 1.2615
NZD/USD 0.5171 0.5345 Close: 0.5283
Careful everyone. Seems like everyone is ready to reload/add to short positions. Today was a very bullish day. We could have easily broken down hard. I’m usually bearish as my nick indicates. I actually think the DOW could have a 5 handle by year end. But I think we are going to rally here barring any devastating news.
The reason will be stupid as is the case for most bear mkt rallies, probably an Obama rally. I’m going to look to buy dips using medium risk stops. Those of you trading volatile leveraged ETFs and not watching the mkt tick by tick or using stops are crazy, IMO.
AAPL going crazy after hours.
More profits for us on the way down
I agree
I find I do better without the stops on the leveraged ETFs as long as my entry price is “low” enough. Otherwise, you get killed with the volatility and the stops hit every time.