3:10am
Obama Obama.. so much hope in this man.. but the market is imploding.. futures show more than a 1-1.5% decline already, as banks (RBS) are nearing bankruptcy. Will this change during inauguration, or is this move lower only a precursor for what is to come.
Intraday Commentary ~ 01/20/08
– January 20, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
Dow cracks 8000
congratulations to all of you helping the trades today. Pretty good day…10%.
did work today for me tought the market would break out
Anyone looking for a bounce in financials overnight? UYG @ 2.75 is just way too tempting
wait til’ pre-market.
ive thought about what the government can do. it has worked so many times before in this bear market. LOWER INTEREST RATES TO – 2% . they pay the banks 2% to borrow funds.
the only thing I lost today was some good short opportunities. I got feared out by a potential bounce on SRS and FAZ. Wow. There should have been some serious money made today on the short side (Mohan!!
)
What a very bad day. The worse thing is that it still feels bad going into tomorrow. What in the world good could happen overnight? Even a mark-to-market change would seem desperate.
It sure seems like capiluation could come overseas tonight.
Tom, this board got me to cover way too early in November looking for some magical bounce. tried my hardest to make a point to go short on Friday and stay the course. technicals provide a potential path for the market. it is especially good to use if you dont watch the market each day. however, if you are watching the tape you have way more information than someone just reading charts. use it to your advantage.
sure we can bounce. but is it worth covering if we bounce 1%… by the time you see it you will cover at the top and then have to short again lower. not worth it if you ask me. almost every month that started at the end of a strong rally sold off the next 2 weeks and then stabilized and rallied in the final week. simple as that.
I woke up thinking I would go short or long but whole day got mentally screwy for me.
I have no problem not making money on a day like today. I have a big problem with losing money…..the market will be open another day (or may not!) and I can sleep well not losing a dime….or gaining one.
I might just wait till some of my long picks are just way way way oversold to get back in.
stocktock is always your friend. helps you take in different views and make an educated decision. it’s your money and if you use different strategy to make your money that’s fine. but nobody will ever make you cover shorts early, or make you purchase a stock or option.
so what are people leaning towards tomorrow. with that 865 number taken into consideration, i know there are a few options on the counts. i know richard is aiming lower (good call today!).
i might try and get a better idea of the counts by thursday. but i need a day or two to confirm different theories.
I think the count that IMHO posted in 146 looks interesting, would like to see if yours comes close after you are done.
As for tomorrow, we’ll see how it goes. We dropped what, over 50 points today without a retrace, so I think we would be due for one tomorrow at some point all depending on how the market opens.
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, January 20, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
ECB Nowotny: Impact of policy on consumption, investment limited
ECB Tightens rules for collateral ABS and uncovered bonds must be AAA not A
BOE King: Rate cuts alone may not suffice
Bank of Canada cuts rates 50bps to 1.00% – as expected
COMMENTS
When you mix a solid substance into a solvent one you get a solution – the process of which is called dissolution. So when banks get real capital and their overall book is solvent – you get a return to credit. So goes the alchemy of central bank and government programs for the present crisis. So, too, goes equity value and deflation as the required capital dilutes the government balance sheets and begets the fear of fiat money over hard assets. Back to gold and oil and down with bonds and equities. Back to the trades of 2008. In the foreign exchange markets we saw a flight to JPY and CHF away from GBP, EUR and somewhat to the USD. The fear of the solution has led to a flight of quality unseen and unknown in the dimension for the hoarding of cash over credit. The bubble of housing has been used as the other form of dissolution – a moral degeneracy as people break their agreements to pay mortgages, banks fail with the greed of holding paper not properly valued and an entire process where consumers borrow money from banks to pay for foreign exports breaks down. The other bubble remains an industrial one – where excess capacity aimed at filling the desires of a G10 world ends with a series of empty factories, unemployed workers and a series of nervous governments. So today – being a historic one for the US as it makes Obama the 44th President – should be one for more than chemistry. The speech Obama gave didn’t have the same flair as a candidate – it didn’t inspire investors with the same confidence either – as the market ran for cover early and despite some hope for change we end in crisis as the process today was an American one not a global one. The cacophony of mixtures facing markets this week should humble anyone – as the Europeans were clear as they started the day – listen to German Finance Minister Steinbrueck: “We’re not going to be able to prevent this recession, but we must curtail it. We are acting against it, and we hope that we can take the edge off it.” Or at the heart of the storm – consider the comments from UK Darling: “What we are seeing today, Europe, America, Asia, we’re all being affected by the same problem. There is a huge economic downturn, there is a problem getting lending going again between the banks to businesses to people and I think there is a growing determination here to ensure that we act together because what we do together will be far greater than what any of us can do individually and I sense a greater movement amongst ministers of the European Union to see things done and to see them done quickly.” We need a world united in its effort to combat the bubbles popping and the beakers breaking in the financial chemistry experiment called the neo-post-capitalist economy of the globe.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2855 1.3000 Close: 1.2892
USD/JPY 89.68 90.58 Close: 89.85
EUR/JPY 115.53 117.40 Close: 115.83
GBP/USD 1.3863 1.4050 Close: 1.3922
EUR/GBP 0.9216 0.9325 Close: 0.9260
USD/CHF 1.1380 1.1518 Close: 1.1469
EUR/CHF 1.4770 1.4830 Close: 1.4786
AUD/USD 0.6471 0.6636 Close: 0.6481
USD/CAD 1.2555 1.2699 Close: 1.2652
NZD/USD 0.5191 0.5312 Close: 0.5205
Here’s what screwed up everybody’s wave counts and trading plans today: ESH9 on SUNDAY EVENING was where 2 of (5) probably topped out; you won’t even be able to see it on an $SPX or SPY chart, but here is ESH9 doing just what we were talking about; fighting the fibs and fizzling against the 865-867 zone:
http://i43.tinypic.com/23tilch.gif
A similar live chart:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.H09.E&v=w&w=30&t=f&a=2
So everybody was still lurking this a.m., waiting for that top in $SPX that had already come and gone in GLOBEX action. I didn’t figure it out in time to post anything like this then, but I did see that FAZ and SRS were off to the races, and XLF and IYR were barfing blood down the right side of the charts, so I just dumped all my cash into SRS and started looking for what we were missing. I was also influenced by Oscar’s raucous but rational arguments that this market has no rally in it, not for inauguration or anything else, with gobs of companies shutting down some or all stores and laying off multitudes of employees, and the UK joining Italy, Spain, Greece, etc in financial chaos, much of which had migrated from NYC to London City, where the game could be played even more insanely. ANyway, i am finished trading for a while; just sitting on a position in SRS. It will get to 200 or more within a few months (or weeks? or days?) and I will take my triple and run.
Uner – you would not go after FAZ at this point? Do you see more upside in it?
I find it annoying avoiding daytrading. Anyone know how much money it takes to set up a daytrading account? I thought I read somewhere on one brokerage account that there is also something called a pattern day trader and that might require at least $25K in the account. I’m currently only trading in retirement accounts and swing trading with 3 day settlement rules. I’m not sure what kind of restrictions I would get if I day traded that account. I did once but they ignored it. I was wondering if you could get away with a single day trade every 90 days or so.
you can usually daytrade 3 times in 5 day period. if you do more than that you will get a daytrade warning which means you will need to put 25k in your account or not be able to daytrade at all.
if you put in 25k minimum you can daytrade all you want, but mind that you don’t make too many useless trades or brokerage fees will add up and eat up any profits you make, and taxes will take the rest.
trying to daytrade without 25k is playing in an already handicapped arena with another handicap. i would recommend at least having the 25k in your account, even if you don’t actually trade with all that money.
Gee I wonder where all the bulltards went who were saying the bottom was in and things were just rosy and peachy. That rally had no real basis whatsoever other than “hopes” and bailouts (which won’t work)