2:06am
Yup it’s a little late, but my question to you tonight is what will happen after inauguration? Keep in mind that the forces of options expiration have pushed this market down quite significantly. We might see that change next week, as inauguration has some impact too. What are your thoughts?
Intraday Commentary ~ 01/16/09
– January 16, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary
Hey guys. Hope your trading is going well. Here’s a link to Stock Charts “The Holiday Effect.”
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:the_pre-holiday_effe
today shook out the weak hands…strong hands hold more positions…imo.
Yep. I got shaken out, admittedly. I was too risk-averse today. Had a great week, but lesson learned.
like i said, we must end positive. EW timeframe tells it like it is.
Yeah that’s how I read it Woo. Even with that scary expanded flat, the market had to go higher purely for technical reasons.
yeah….that was a very…scary…expanded flat haha.
I’m counting 4 waves (now completing a flat for wave 4) up from the 12:30 low at 830. When the 5th wave is complete at about 852, that will complete 1 of 5 waves up. After a pullback for wave 2, it’s up to about 866 to complete the 38% retracement. Probably won’t happen today.
Wow. Spot on Jerry! You gots skills.
$VIX 10m now chatting with it’s 200ma. Hell, they just chatted this morning for 2.5 hours. Perhaps Mrs Vix want’s to head south for the weekend.
AMA indicator says YES.
well if you look at the action of the 1 wave up to the 850′s it was pretty quick. that means the 3 up will probably take it’s time more.
i’m thinking we’ll see a pop to that 850′s area again into close.
I’m counting on it!
$SPX right at the 10m bowtie launch pad. Start the countdown.
I’ll go through the checklist:
10m RSI over 50 – CHECK.
Above 20 and 50ma – CHECK
MACD above zero and crossing up – CHECK
STO above 50 – CHECK
Bullish volume increasing – CHECK.
Above VWAP – CHECK
All systems GO for launch.
1 minute till 2:30. preparing launch sequence.
yoda: strong with charts you have become since first a padwan you were…mmmm
directed to woo
i used to base my trades for the last couple years strictly on other analysis and other trends. EW has been most consistent for me and gives me a complete long term and short term picture. other TA helps give more exact points and better reads on turns.
i’m lovin it haha
i am more of a fundamentalist …but for intra day and weekly…EW and TA are spooky good. i was skeptical at first but after making money with it a few times….well you know the rest of the story!
amen! it really is scary sometimes haha.
I second that. It’s super spooky, but in the sense of awesomeness not fear. It’s like the laws of physics. Unless the fabric of the universe gets torn apart, the laws hold. And being universal they apply to just about everything: Tree growth, weather patterns, spiral galaxies, even human DNA. Spooky indeed.
Yeah, now if I could just read it right! Ha! Thanks to all you EW champs who keep teaching me.
Sch: On VIX 3min…when the green DM cross the Red DM and the ADX is in the middle of hte two (not totally requred though), and STO is high, and MACD is rising or curling up….that is very bullish.
pretty much the opposite is happening right now.
Problem ignored. We’re gonna LAUNCH.
Reading will have to catch up.
$VIX 200ma/10m has been busted.
ohhh this is going to be good. should break 847 this time and take us to the 850′s
starting to feel like a rally is coming
Schweizer135, which trading software/platform do you use? I can’t seem to find AMA anywhere…
Strategy Desk on TD.
Awesome thanks. I haven’t learned how to use it yet. I’m gonna have to put in some time this weekend.
can somebody explain how to use the Volume Weighted MA tool correctly in strategy desk.
FAS looks like it’s crossing below upward channel.
Held
Key decision point. Either we activate head and shoulders and put in a flat (from 12:00 PM 1/15), or, we rally to innauguration and put in an upward flat. That’s probably all she wrote for this rally.
we could rally RIGHT to inauguration and tank right then taking us to 800′s before the next big rally…
would like to see the headlines in response to that initial market move.
poor obama.
Looks like we have a system hold.
Checking.
Congrats, bulls.
i think we’re about to see 5 on the bull flag…
Technicians have found an unplanned backtest of the $VIX 10m 200ma and loss of pressure build-up in the $SPX MACD.
We have an official 15 minute hold people.
FAS, XLF, UYG and Oil all chopping since 1pm….I demand some traction…..calling the Fed now.
My counter intutitive nature says everyone is looking for the Inaugural Rally, and with the financials doing another nosedive, I say we go lower. Also, with Barclays blowing up today, my concern is something akin happens over the weekend.
ALERT: Wave count suggests big rally. we have a 5-3 and a bull flag.
Next 5 if it appears will form a zigzag
Let’s see if it holds the ES daily VWAP this time. Duking it out.
Did you catch it?
Descending wedge forming on the 1 min on UYG. Will enter when broken and positive div. Target is 4
holy battle at VWAP on UYG
Kirk: warning…..early DM radar shows another possible crack of BAC….very earlier signal.
I mean:
Scotty: Kirk,….
Kirk: Copy. Kirk Out.
Technicians also report a retest of the $SPX 50ma/10m, and it has held.
Count resumed.
Check your screens and report any anolomies. We need to get this right people.
WE HAVE ENGINE START.
Dammit, one of those Estes ignites quit. Geeez ….
could’ve been a bird in the right and left engine…
we’re spring loaded and above the 50 retrace and fondling the 3rd retrace. time for the 850′s =)
Did the engine just stall captain??!!!
OK – we have a new igniter. Let’s light this candle.
Dammit Scotty. It still ain’t workin’ – check the wiring.
Scotty: I launched her from auxillary control Captain.
If SPY can just get over that 50 dma on the 30 minute we’ll be stylin’.
oil is not moving…weird.
ok… anyone still holding TNA?… this market is really having to work for it.
hold it!
I sold and rebought…waiting for it to top out
im holding and hoping for 866 like woo promised
and then im adding to all of my short positions and scaling into my friend SRS
got stopped at 27.20… small profit. kept moving my stop up… this is real messy and hard to trust…especially for a permabear.
haha. at least you tried =) one step at a time.
3rd retrace broken!
CapCom says “go at throttle up.”
Finding resistance at the upper Bollinger Band.
We need more power!
I’m counting 5 waves up from the 12:30 low at 830. The 5th wave is complete at 850, and that completes 1 of 5 waves up. After a pullback for wave 2, it’s up to about 866 to complete the 38% retracement.
don’t want to turn this into a love fest, but jerry, i’ve been enjoying your ewave work lately, almost as much as daneric and woo. pls keep it up. i’m out in the 860s as well, as i may gamble over the wknd for an O gap up
like i posted much earlier today it feels like they are plenty happy holding 850 today and its a struggle at that. will they break through in the last hour… or do they even want to?
thx, I love it — when I’m right.
I could be wrong here – it’s been choppy action and it’s difficult to be sure. Just looked – yep, I was wrong – we’re going higher before a pullback.
I am still holding TNA…
I was holding FAS for the rally until just now. Got stopped out at 13.16.
I am starting to think that BAC might have reach a bottom. Not willing to bet on it but that might be all the blood in the body.
Option crooks want this at 890. Put in a trendline and ride it like your ugly sister.
That is one of the nastiest and most funny comments I’ve ever heard Schweizer135… rofl
I love this site..! LOL…
hahahaha!!!! but gross
LOL…..except that the options have already expired…they close the books 3pm
there are other month calls hehe. if you’ve got 890 calls from the bottom, and it goes in the money. you stand to make a FORTUNE.
glorious 850′s! we’re above all 3 retraces from the previous drop, we’re definitely headed above 857. i’m assuming at least 865-866. we’ll count waves and see other TA to see if we go higher.
buying UYG
cool. I got in at 3.75 with a strong stop.
im stopped out of TNA on that last little pull back.. damn. im tempted to get some SRS at end of day. this rally really lacks punch and feels like it is getting overbought no? anyone buying SRS at the close above 850?
i wouldn’t yet. read 127.
hmmmm… 890? 890 by eod? posted early on that the aim has to be to hold 850 and after today it doesnt matter right? maybe ill just get 100 SRS at the close and then watch to see if they try for more. it really feels like we are out of steam. ill wait until a few minutes to the closing bell or so.
This ride is not over….permission to go to warp speed.
Sold my UYG at 3.9….looks like some neg div on the 1 min. If not…oh well…
for once, the large caps may be the ones pulling up everyone’s jock strap. i’m not touching the shorts until wed
Sch…notice what happens when the AMA cross the 20dma on the 3min chart
a rising AMA, that is….flat is not helpful.
er… what. Seems they sync?
This has been my best week ever thanks to you guys…
Same!
I think we will finish the zigzag today. If we put in the last 5 of 5 it might not be a bad short going into next week.
won’t finish today. timeframe doesn’t work. like i said earlier 1 of 3 wave from 817-857 was too quick so this 3 of 3 will be slower and take longer. 1 took half a day. this 3 should take a full day’s worth, so maybe a half day into tuesday.
agreee… this painful rally has to unravel next week… please .. im getting SRS at the close.. just a token position and go from there. kept all my shorts and just added to some here. a few rallied late here but on very very light volume.
what if it rallies to 890? (not sure if it will).
then again if you’re willing to hold through it all, and they aren’t options. if you’re patient, it’s supposed to head back down i believe.
got some 61 and change. this market looks very poopy at 850 so i couldnt hold off any longer despite woo’s wise words.
seems i also had a buy order for TWM which hit just above 850 and looking good. maybe ill shed that one now
so my call for a battle at 850 came true… but now what LOL… im in SRS at the close … 60.20 avg… will i sleep well this weekend? im covering all of my shorts before the 25th anyway as we all know what months end usually brings. the big question… what will next week bring?
Richard, just keep in mind that SRS will probably spike up to 200 or 300 or some such within a few weeks or months. We may not know just when or how it will happen, but don’t you agree that sometime well before the next Ice Age, you will be able to get a 3-to-5-bagger from those SRS shares just by taking advantage of that most underutilized of investment tools, namely your butt, and sitting on it for a while. I did a poor job of prognosticating with similarly scary (worse, actually) FAZ, and just told myself, okay, here I am underwater, but I know bleeding well that this puppy will spike again sometime, and before that it will make some juicy swings for me to trade, so I will just calmly learn from the experience, but also trade my way out of the mess, and sure enough, after only a few weeks, I’m feeling pretty good about things again, and actually have more confidence as a trader than ever before. I think Daneric’s S&P waves up to 880 or 895 will materialize, so you might have more TEMPORARY downside in SRS then, but after that, well, Kenny’s List isn’t the only place you can read of a new low at 625ish, so the main thing is just to be sure of having a juicy position in the likes of SRS and / or FAZ etc. to take the big rocket ride that will make these squiggles in the 50′s and 60′s look like the chicken feed they are.
Long FAS at $12.75 with a stop at 12. Targeting $15
Looking for a short-term bounce as XLF daily and weekly charts are showing positive divergences on OBV indicator.
We got your back.
http://i43.tinypic.com/33vhoo1.png
No legs on UYG…I’m out that now..
Gonna go out on a limb and say that wave 1 & 2 of 5 up are complete – let wave 3 rip!
is wave 3 of 5 up or down?
up
You mean down right?
Wave 4 ended at 944
Wave 1 of 5 ended yesterday at 818
Wave 2 of 5 should end at 866 (38.1% retracement from 944 to 818)
Wave 3 of 5 will be a violent drop to 620-650
I’m in the intraday count, not the bigger picture count. From the intraday 830 low there should be 5 waves up to finish the third leg of a 5-3-5 wave up. We’re either finished with 1 and 2 and starting 3, or we have a little more work to do with 2.
feels like wave 2 of 5 is done if you look at the action today. it topped out in the morning and would have fell further if was not for OE. im playing it as 3 down is in motion and was only held up by OE which will be liquidated on Tuesday.
H/S
http://i40.tinypic.com/4i1lcw.png
Now that’s a pretty picture if you’re long.
i like that 880 area better too…it makes for a prettier looking chart overall. also makes more sense for the dip that is to come. the higher it goes on this short term rally, the better i’ll feel about my wave counts. if i saw 895, a drop to 800 from there would be great.
we’ll see tuesday.
Do you think it can rally to 880 on Tuesday? or will it be a 2 day rally?
Nice chart! I think we get a brief retest of the right shoulder on Tue and then it activates for Hopebama. Thanks for posting.
pretty yes.. however,, the 200 MA was tested today and quickly refused . we had lots o volume today and barely a tick higher. the whole rally today was about holding 850 for OE and nothing to do with TA or fundamentals. next week will tell us where the market is headed …no strings attached. the 200 ma is falling and at this rate it will fall on the markets head rather than the market racing up to it. of course, im a permabear so i short anything that moves up to fast or shows a struggle to move up. this is the latter and will need a ladder with battery power to get over the 200. till next week… get some rest.. it will be a fun one.
I am short at the close via TZA. Just a swing trade into Tue morning. Then I think we go higher into the Hopebama rally.
Have a great weekend.
maket is close Monday, right?
yes
Tom the former Tom – are you still here?
yes
I’ll email you on Social.
Sch135: Ive got to run. This is how I set up my screen and an example of what I look for. I have it this way very long but it is working well. Now, I only look at the 3min – nothing else.
I just use this method for timing of the trade. When it is really choppy I get stopped out but I put the stop just below the AMA. I don’t mind getting stopped out because most of the time The price goes down from there. The run ups are worth it. Patience is the key – I need to work on that.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A12234
I mean ” I have not been trading this way very long, but it is working”
Thanks. I read that already once. Perhaps another time.
Tom currently Tom
I actually saved this chart the other day when you posted it. Thanks again! Extremely informative! I’m going to put some time in this weekend to learn Strategy Desk (been using Command Center, but it’s less sophisticated). Have a lovely weekend.
Ben,
DMI with ADX is very helpful but very tricky. If you are not day trading on the 3min with stops, you can suffer. Please be careful.
Angle of DM crossover, most recent angle, location of ADX, relationship to AMA, location of STO, direction of MACD….you could easily not trade all day just waiting for the perfect combo (but worth it).
Thanks. Tom. Any websites you can point me to which may be helpful in becoming more familiar with the interaction between these particular indicators, as you’ve described?
Ben, you can learn a lot in the ChartSchool tab at stockcharts.com, even without a subscription, and there is also Investopedia.com and a lot of other links you can find with google, which produced 211,000 hits with a search term of
DMI ADX trending MACD
I’ve been reading some speculation that the new administration may change stock-trading rules, including:
1. re-instituting the uptick rule
2. abolishing leveraged ETFs
anybody have any thoughts on potential mkt impact (both short and long-term) if these were to occur?
Just when I thought I couldn’t despise the federal government along with King Obama more than I already do….suffice to say that I will be livid if they ban leveraged ETFs.
I understand the rationale for the uptick rule for short sellers (though, by the same logic, there should be a downtick rule for long buyers.) I don’t understand the rationale for abolishing leveraged ETFs.
if they ban the short leveraged etfs they will have to ban the long ones and then ban the mutual funds. hell, why not just close the market all together and produce a mega-tarp to pick up the whole toxic mess in one fail swoop
I agree with you MJ. The uptick rule should be equalized by a downtick rule in order to limit the magnitude of short squeezes. Either way, my initial feeling is that this rule wouldn’t really affect prices in the long run – perhaps just reducing intraday volatility.
However, the effect of banning leveraged ETFs could be more tricky. While long an short ETFs would both be banished, I don’t know if forced liquidation would create an imbalance towards one side. I keep thinking of that crazy Friday opex in Oct when the govt banned shorting in financials.
#1 mean nothing.
#2 wont happen.
The real deal is mark to market. That will go way soon and will impact the market violently upward. All the new fed guys hate mark to market.
If leveraged ETFs are banned, their managers will presumably be forced to liquidate the funds’ underlying stock holdings, leading to more selling. A ban would also discourage a large segment of traders and would-be investors that are only following and participating in the markets by way of these ETFs, as many are (understandably) hesitant to start buying up individual stocks, while the market is looking for a bottom.
I could also say that the federal government has absolutely no authority to “ban” these instruments, but I could also say it lacks any authority to “bail out” heretofore private enterprises, take equity stakes in same, along with literally hundreds of thousands of other laws/measures/actions for which there is simply no authority.
Sorry for the tirade, but as I see it, the government bears a substantial portion of the blame for current conditions (and hint: it’s not due to a “lack” of regulation by any means).
Good point above. Not sure how liquidations would come into play (if at all) if both long and short ETFs are in fact banned.
NY ROUNDUP – Friday, January 16, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Consumer Price Index for December -0.74% m/m, +0.1% y/y – better than expected
US Industrial Production for December -2.0% – much worse than expected
University of Michigan Confidence rises to 61.9 – higher than expected
COMMENTS
Today’s price action has been almost a mirror image of yesterday’s. We walked in with all equity markets up 1 – 2% and a general feeling of resilience after the government announced further measures to shore up the US financial system, more positive news on the Obama stimulus plan, and Citibank’s plan to strip non traditional banking businesses and put them in a “bad” bank. Equities, however, were unable to maintain their best levels when short sellers reemerged in Europe — the short-selling ban expired today — with UK financials bearing the brunt of the selling. The downdraft in UK banks clipped the US financials, and we went negative in US indices. Like yesterday, however, some afternoon news has brought us back to positive territory. Chrysler Financial to get a Libor +1% loan from the Treasury for 5 years to aid in retail lending. There has also been lots of talk, from Treasury Paulson and FDIC Blair in particular, about the TARP fund finally being used in a concerted effort for what’s being termed an “Aggregator Bank.” The bad bank concept is picking up steam and seems to make more sense if the Treasury is serious about disposing of problem assets from US financials’ balance sheets. Wasn’t this one of the original plans? Anyway, Cross-JPY has been bid most of the day with a setback during the London close. Flows have been light with a decided bend toward cross-JPY buying in front of the weekend with potential for action from the UK and US on banking. The wire offered up further news helping us close in the black: Barclay says full year earnings will be above market expectations and Bill Gross says the worst may be behind up for US financials’ bank sheets. These stories will help to squeeze the shorts and are worth a couple of points in SPX, but a durable rally will take something more. President Obama formally takes office next Tuesday, and with a coherent and holistic plan for the US financial system, many are hoping that he will be the source of that rally. A rally in the face of economic difficulty. A rally in the face of financial uncertainty. The audacity of hope!
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3210 1.3345 Close: 1.3238
USD/JPY 90.07 90.92 Close: 90.39
EUR/JPY 119.18 120.75 Close: 119.66
GBP/USD 1.4656 1.4982 Close: 1.4664
EUR/GBP 0.8876 0.9045 Close: 0.9027
USD/CHF 1.1109 1.1225 Close: 1.1159
EUR/CHF 1.4765 1.4885 Close: 1.4772
AUD/USD 0.6646 0.6797 Close: 0.6667
USD/CAD 1.2313 1.2577 Close: 1.2523
NZD/USD 0.5398 0.5530 Close: 0.5418