12:06am
I want everyone to read Mohan’s comment about Deja Vu, because that’s exactly what i’m thinking right now. Even though it’s hard to believe that wave 4 was this short, it is looking very likely like we are starting wave 5. While the 61.8% retracement at 82$. I do favor a small bounce, but this looks like the beginning of a long down trend. We will have to see what happens at 82$, because that’s the real test for the bulls/bears.
Intraday Commentary ~ 01/15/09
– January 15, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
I use the Adaptive MA (AMA). It is at 843.12 right now and almost flat. A good crack below that should make the AMA serve as resistance and mean SPX is going lower.
Thanks Tom. Hard to say where we will end up today.
Interesting…. I was in qqqq calls and the market maker knocked the stops out during the 2PM hour. Thank goodness I had a GTC sell order in for the profit I wanted and not a stop to protect myself.
It this “the Craig?” Is so – good to here from you. If not, welcome and good trade. Qs are strong.
Sorry, I should have differentiated myself…. I am not “The Craig” but I strive to obtain his trading knowledge.
I will use another nick next time.
Thanks
Craig,
Long time no see on board. Good to have you. Whats your two cents on the current market action? Do you still see us in wave 4 long term?
I really think we are going lower. AMA totally flat and long
AMA at 845.28 – cracked
You nailed it!
Tom,
Great call. Do you have a target finish for today?
the market must keep us confused so that we limit risk and thus limit reward. so sad.
JPM is close to day’s lows. C forming an inraday H/S. This could get ugly for banks into the close.
massive volume unload on JPM in the last few minutes
10m charts were overbought and selling was expected.
XLF back to the VWAP here, supportive.
loving the action today sold fas at 14.60 and got into faz again at 56.80
I’ll have to make you a 1-minute chart next time.
Nice flip.
Don’ t like to be long in this market.
Daytrading is saver. I think this market can collapse anytime. YEah right we trust the charts but the news isn’t pretty.
Thank you for all the posting. Learning a lot.
All,
I got out of LENN puts and bought puts on HSBC bank (Feb 35s) [Kicking myself for not buy puts when it was at 46]. Judging from news, looks like HBC is toast.
Consider shorting or a put position in NUVA (medical equipment). I’ve been following this stock for over 6 months. There is something fishy about the way the stock was trading. Whether fundamentals justify selling or not, the stock made its second big push above upper BB today. Way overbought. A quick visit to low 30s is possible.
What Puts do you reccomend on NUVA?
Thanks
I bought Feb 30s. Feb 35′s may be a better bet
boy, bearish cross overs DMI accross the board…this could get a lot worse. Was that the 50dMA that just broke?
oh, here is a come back attempt!
100ma.10m. we should be good.
What time frame do you watch the DMI?
So who is going to get the hammer into close
Anyone looking to go long FAS? Financials look like they’ve put in one of those bottoms today.
SPY VWAP 83.32
Boing!
Still holding UYG puts. Selling to close AAPL calls. Openning RIMM puts.
woo, looks like your 5-3-5 is playing out. If so, the first 5 was 34 points on the SPX, the middle 3 may complete at 834 (50% retrace), and if c=a that puts this wave at 868 for a high. That’s close to the 38% retrace at 866. I’ll be out at 855 (c = a * .68).
i’m up 30% so far on my feb calls. i’m holding into tomorrow for some more gains.
Up 22% on my calls. Holding also. You had this move nailed. Do you have a projected exit price yet?
i’m leaning towards that 865-866 mark which is the first retrace.
the thing is…i think we could go towards the 50 retrace which is a little higher. so i might set trailing stops, but will probably just cash in at 865 and wait for the downward trend for the bigger money. my main reasoning is:
if you can guarantee a profit on a 38% rise, that’s awesome. that extra 10-12% to the 50% retrace is nice, but if it’s not guaranteed, it’s not always worth the gamble.
nice job with the 22%! beers all around!
Right with you. Make mine ginger ale!
Still trying to figure out your big picture count from the Oct. 10 low. I’m guessing you see us in an A-B-C Wave 4 about to finish B in a 5 wave movement to around the 790 mark. Then you see us completing C of 4 up to around 1020 or so, maybe 960 on a weak move. Yes?
i think B will be a 3 wave. A is a 5, B is a 3, C is a 5.
i’m pretty sure you got my 5 wave count for A, and we’ve been in agreement about that. the 3 for B, i’m not sure where it’ll finish. could be at 866, 880, or 895. people might want to take out full positions or even half positions at 866 (if they want to keep playing the upside more since 895 is even possible with this 61.8 retrace drop on the A).
the TRICKY part is deciding where to draw the end of that C….cuz technically it shouldn’t overtake that nov 20 low. unless the wave counts need to be changed.
here is a breakdown of the bigger picture for you (hope it helps!):
oct 12, 2007 (roughly) – march 14, 2008 – wave 1 down
march 14, 2008 – may 19, 2008 – wave 2 up
may 19, 2008 – nov 20, 2008 – wave 3 down
nov 20, 2008 – ??? – wave 4 up
i’m thinking this wave 4 up continues into february.
now you get these points and you break them down into additional 5 waves for the 1,3,5 waves, and 3 waves for the 2 and 4 waves.
the 4 wave starting from nov 20 into february, should have a 3 wave within it. the 1 of that 3 wave ended jan 6th. the 2 of 3 is happening now. the 3 of 3 should take us lower i’m assuming to the 71.8 mark. this may call for at least a current retrace to about the 880s so that this 3 of 3 will be long enough.
once this 3 wave finishes, we have the 5 portion (large 4 wave, a 3 wave within it, a 5-3-5 within that 3 wave) that 5 may take us to 1020 as some mentioned. i say we AT LEAST hit 940′s, but for certain higher, that number i have not calculated.
from there 4 wave finishes….and….look out below…new lows sub 700 maybe 600′s…who knows….
i will get you guys a diagram sooner or later. then you will no longer need me haha. it will be life changing.
Perfect, I understand where you are now. Robert McHugh’s primary count is the same (do you know his work?), only he is less specific than you have been. Hey, thanks for bouncing thoughts around with me. Your EW work is excellent. I find it a lot easier to chart the waves than to use all of these indicators like the engineers around here. Love their work and benefit from it, but I wouldn’t want to do it!
not a problem jerry. appreciate your commentary too. like i said before we’re all out to make a buck and it’s all about the charts. hiding stuff from each other doesn’t benefit anyone haha.
i’ll definitely be working out some quirks with these smaller intradays, and i’m very open to the possibility of corrections.
right now i’m looking at this being similar to the 3 waves from nov 20 – dec 8 (although that was part of a 5 wave). where we see a 50% retrace fairly quickly. and then a move slightly above the peak of the 1 wave. if we, for any reason, went below nov 20 lows….my brain would start hurting and i would need another 2 weeks to formulate a new EW based on overall and intraday charts haha. right now it is not possible in my brain to head lower than…let me calculate now…
798.21.
if it starts going below that….i will have a cow.
798.21 – love it. I’ll be looking for it on the upcoming 3rd wave impulse down from 880 or 896. If the b wave of a zigzag is itself a zigzag (that’s what I think we’re seeing), then it generally retraces 50-79% (EWP p. 89). So, we should see at least 880. But he also says that usually c=a on zigzags, which means it could be 866. We’ll see. But the other problem is the 3rd wave down. The 3rd wave of B should be a 5 wave impulse that equals the 1st wave, which was 127 points! That would put us at 753 and make you have a cow. But if c=a*.618, then c=78 points, which could put us at 802. No need to give birth!
Sch…I watch 3min and 5min. I use stops.
I use DMI with ADX in the same chart. I use AMA on the price chart.
What is interesting is that the Daily $SPX STO is under 20 (12.267 and curling up) and we are at the lower BB. Any rally will push up the STO over 20 and will make the MACD Positive creating a much more bullish chart, and one that suggests a push towards to daily 200ma. It’s currently up at 922.
Correction. 992.
boy…SRS dump in the last 15 mins.
glad to get out at $70… that was sick sick sick… freakish sick. the days range in SRS was retarded considering the index range compared. $60 – $75 range… holy crapoly. lost out on my TWM waiting for 800 and getting distracted by my employee during that run up. next thing i look and its in negative territory. should have covered everything at 10am when i was up a crap load instead of waiting for all the distractions to start filing in
What if 851.59 ended a wave 1 up of wave 2 up of wave 5 down on the S&P, with the drop back to 833.42 being wave 2 of 2 of 5 and now s&P is rising back thru the 840s on 3 of 2 of 5? Or is it a-b-c? I think I will let it ride — daily closed with a big (almost) dragonfly doji on S&P and red hammers on XLF and $DJUSFN, but shooting stars on $VIX and FAZ. So S&P & financials could have more upside coming and maybe I get a decent reload price on FAZ after all.
Hello. I looked at the chart from 1929 – 1930. Looks similar. We may expect a continuous uptrend until april from now onwards. Just my 2 cents. Then the BIG leg down.
most people expect the big upwave to start later.
See chart of big waves at
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/long-term-elliot-view
Wave 5 down of 1 down from the ATH of S&P just started its wave 2 up today, so that will be less of a rise than you probably await, then a reverse into wave 3 down of 5 down of 1 down to plunge below the nov 20 low , with a 4 up and 5 down still to go before your big wave 2 up starts later.
any uptrend may only last until March as hedge funds take off the gates then hoping redemptions are cancelled. if those clients still want their cash it will be ugly March to May… that is my guess.
Uner, being in Wave 5 is just one scenario of three that have validity. Frustrating to me, but it is what it is. Could be we just finished D of the Wave 4 triangle and are going up to 900 or 920 for E. Could be we are finishing (or just finished) B of a Wave 4 A-B-C that will take us up to about 1020 before the big Wave 5 fall to new lows. Anyway, beyond us probably going to 866 tomorrow, it’s difficult to say (at least for me it’s difficult) where we go from there. Wave 4′s are tough! Hopefully, we’re in Wave 5 and we see that play out shortly, but Schweizer and others (e.g., Craig) have presented good reasons why we may still be in Wave 4.
Any way you chart it, it looks like a zigzag corrective move. Zigzag should complete tomorrow at 866 or so, might go to 880. Question is, is it going to be a double zigzag and continue up?
1-min S&P chart also looks like it could be building a H&S bottom. Target would be about 880 — only a pulback to 865 and bounce from there thru 875 to 880 would add a 2nd neckline and another set of shoulders . . . the plot thickens . . .
things are just moving too quick for me. its seems like we just had a bogus rally and this is part of that rally? pulling back to 820 and then onward and upward past the 940 level we were just at and then crash and burn in March? im starting to get a bit confused. isn’t next week going to be a down week after we get overbought starting tomorrow?
Here is a quick 3Min SPX chart. I am not a pro at trading or charting so I humbly accept all criticism.
Although you cannot trade the S&P, this is the approach I look within stocks for trading timing. I did not get this combo out of a book, so please do not use it without due consideration.
Again, I am still learning and using stops often so be careful out there!!!
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-3min-chart-011509?context=user
Updated:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-3min-chart-011509added?context=user
Hey Everyone,
just wondering if any of you had problems with this site earlier. I kept getting DB connections problems and gave up on it after 11:00am. Just checking up on it now and I see that there are loads of comments today.
The site did have sporatic problems earlier today
Problems all morning long for everyone. Resolved in the early afternoon.
My Oil chart
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/oil-011509?context=user
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, January 15, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Initial Jobless Claims rise to 524K – worse than expected
Philadelphia Fed Survey drops to -24.3 – better than expected
US Producer Price Index for December rises to -1.9% m/m, -0.9% y/y – better than expected
European Central Bank cut rates 50bps to 2.00% – as expected
Turkey Monetary Policy Committee cuts rates 200bps to 13.00% – much more than expected
COMMENTS
JPM earnings were out early this morning and beat expectations with Q4 net income of .07c a share. In spite of this and marginally better data out of the US, equities traded down as much as 3% today and managed to close up small. The ECB cut rates 50bps and Trichet’s press conference has left the market pricing less easing. The cautious Trichet contrasted with the aggressive SNB Jordon who said the SNB stood ready to intervene “beyond the money markets.” Many thought he might explicitly talk down the currency, so those short CHF were surely disappointed. We do think, however, that this verbal intervention is important and would expect the Swiss to be proactive. In FX, we have had a range bound day and have followed equities closely with an especially high beta for the yen crosses. Financials fared okay despite several comments from well-known short sellers likening Wells Fargo to the next LEH. Encouragingly, financials did manage to rebound sharply from their lows. In the news, Bank of America is credited by most for the afternoon turnaround with “sources” citing the potential for a Citibank-type bailout with $100-$200bn in loan guarantees and $15bn in new capital. Late afternoon in NY, a US Air A320 crashed into the Hudson river after attempting to return to LGA after hitting a flock of geese. The pilot did a wonderful job of setting the plane down in the frigid water gently and it appears everyone is out and relatively unscathed. If only the market could manage such a soft landing.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3025 1.3244 Close: 1.3162
USD/JPY 88.85 90.04 Close: 89.69
EUR/JPY 116.24 118.65 Close: 118.05
GBP/USD 1.4477 1.4685 Close: 1.4658
EUR/GBP 0.8950 0.9034 Close: 0.8979
USD/CHF 1.1163 1.1290 Close: 1.1222
EUR/CHF 1.4677 1.4815 Close: 1.4770
AUD/USD 0.6537 0.6702 Close: 0.6665
USD/CAD 1.2414 1.2677 Close: 1.2508
NZD/USD 0.5279 0.5438 Close: 0.5389
Curious. I’ve been trying to get into the site all day. Finally I closed and reopened my web browser and no problem.
Anyway…Had a great day. Thanks to Dan Eric, Uners, et al, for excellent analysis the past few days. Really helped set me up for some great trades today.