11:55am
The market hit the 50 % retracement around 84.00 and bounced, this bounce looks increasingly like a bear flag, with volume descending as we go higher. I would be a shorter of this sort of rally.
Looks like Idan is not readily available to start a thread for intraday blog. I won’t post any intraday updates as I have to be away for most of the day. I just posted posted a note on European banks, that could be very important for today’s trading. Check it out.
Good luck.
Hope everyone had fun today. i did.
no one can complain that the market was boring the last few days. the end of the O rally was putting me to sleep as that thing topped out. every trade today for me was in the money… a rare feat. think i will celebrate with a bowl of porridge since it is so damn cold at my desk here. im holding my HGD overnight bcs i think we are going lower with gold. but im too cash for most part since we are getting a confusing message down here at 840.
love from the Canadian Bear.
Max temps in Wisc around 0F = minus 18C all week, so Canada must be REALLY chilly about now.
San Francisco was a so-so day at 62 F.
Your kindness in providing that info is received with heartfelt appreciation. **** you VERY much.
sorry, it was actually 71 F….felt like 62 F.
All,
I just noticed – credit spreads are rocketing up again.
CDX NA HY (North American High Yield Corporate) back above 1300.
Europe Cross-over Index: Back over 1000.
CMBX-NA-AAA-5 (as of yesterday) at 675 (Panic level was above 750)
http://www.markit.com/markit.jsp?jsppage=indices.jsp
Selling may not be over yet. Any bounce tomorrow may be weak.
My wave count says a small bounce up to about 855 to finish wave 4 of a 5 wave down from 944. After the bounce, more selling until we hit 818 or so to complete wave 5 of Wave 1. Then it’s a Wave 2 bounce up to at least 866 (38%) or more likely 881 (50%)
Maybe even 896 (62%) for opex.Friday
i think our wave counts differ slightly. i’ll take this into consideration. we’re off by a few beats, which could be nasty along the way. i count a 3 wave down to the 818′s as opposed to a 5 wave down as you project.
remember that 1,3,5 have 5 waves inside each of them. and 2, 4 have 3 waves inside them.
once we hit 818, i see us going a 5 wave up to 940′s at least.
Funny, by EOD I had changed my count. I had Intermediate Wave 4 over and Wave 5 starting at 944. The makes the action from 944 a 5 wave movement, and we are in the 4th wave. Just saw that Daneric posted the same view. Be interested to hear yours, woo. You have been getting it right for quite some time.
You already gave me your view earlier – I meant your view of this view!
JPM almost closed up, and well above the 20 and 50ma/10m. Tea leaf.
Conventional wisdom calls for a bounce tomorrow. Typically on options expiration week, Thursday goes the opposite of Wednesday’s move if the move is big. We shall see.
Oh yes pleeeeeeez a big bounce tomorrow — let me reload FAZ at about 65% of what i sold it for this morning yum yum yum then plunge back down to complete the H&S top on S&P on the way dooooooooowwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnn the tuuuuuuubes to test (and of course break) the Nov 20 bottom as FAZ pauses briefly at 376 as I sell out for a 10-bagger (on top of what I already hamstered) and shift to FAS for a 10-bagger there by May then “sell (FAS) in May and go away” to FAZ for still another 10-bagger as wave 5 of 1 plays out before the biggest bear-market rally yet takes me and FAS for a 20x ride until it is time to switch to FAZ at 20 and get out at 600, cashing in for $2.73bil with which I can buy myself a loaf of bread if i hurry.
MAGNIFICENT !!! LOL
I am willing to take a chance on a bounce. That’s why I sold most of my FAZ at 53.50; I hope it bounces in the morning.
fun day. Hope that I did not post to often.
I’m swinging for a bounce but I only see JPM and GS fighting to stay up.
BAC looks really bad and it at it’s Nov low!!
WFC is a buck and half a way fro low.
C looks like BAC but we all know where that can go.
steve jobs… the ultimate X factor
Tank tomorrow,say bye to Jobs
and look at the 600,000 shares purchased at the last minute of the day around 85.50. Now that’s gotta hurt.
I hope he bought some Jan 80 puts before the announcement. Thanks Steve!
for the SRS people
look for continued weakness in the IYR tomorrow with the news on the VNO divi.
why pay a divi in cash when you can give away overpriced shares for FREE!!
trading above 70 after hours… wowser. only have a bitty bit left of my position.. you have to hate risk management sometimes
Now we don’t have jobs, and we also don’t have “JOBS”, but I am thinking about buying AAPL here, what do u think?
wow – I have enjoyed following everyone on this site. It has been very educational.
I would not be shocked if AAPL covered the gap created after hours, but the 85 support is now resistance. We’re still in a bear market and there’s more upside risk than down.
NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, January 14, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US FED Beige Book-US economy weakened through December
US retail sales drop 2.7% to $343.2 bn in December – much worse than expected
Philadelphia FED Plosser: FED needs clear exit strategy
Minneapolis FED Stern: Economic rebound not far off
COMMENTS
The pain of the weak retail sales was sufficient to send markets back to rethinking risk. Though we managed to close marginally above the day’s lows and above the 840 level in SPX, no one is going home taking comfort today’s price action. The Beige book was not helpful as it paints a gloomy economic picture – similar to the data. News wires were also bleak: Nortel files for bankruptcy; foreclosures are on the rise in California again; and after the close, Apple announces Steve Jobs will take a medical leave until summer. In the face of this gloom, FED speakers were upbeat and tried to push the view of action – which few bought into after Bernanke refused to offer up a clear policy of quantitative easing yesterday. So we go quietly into that good night with no rage against the storm – as bonds are up with 30Y at 2.89% off 10 bps in yield, oil down, gold down – all pushed from deflation. The EUR and the JPY remain the key focus and the most difficult to assess as the 88.60 low in JPY bounced sharply and EUR 1.3100 held but without much fundamental reason. Many are convinced we see 113 EUR/JPY in short order, now having closed below 117.70. The ECB decision tomorrow takes on new importance given the doubts today. Whether today is merely a step back, thanks to renewed US economic doubts, or something bigger and more global rests on their policy reaction. The catastrophic moves in the Eurozone economic indicators prove the deflation risks from their credit crisis. Will the ECB move fast and get the risk or continue with the pride of a too strong EUR? The fall down risk is being repriced as the 30 percent move in SPX entices tail hedging. The GS research call on housing and financials make clear the need for more action from TARP and Obama. As we go into tomorrow, the clear answer is that 2009 is just yet starting and discerning a step back from a fall down requires more than a day.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3093 1.3260 Close: 1.3163
USD/JPY 88.60 89.56 Close: 89.14
EUR/JPY 116.57 118.68 Close: 117.33
GBP/USD 1.4496 1.4632 Close: 1.4587
EUR/GBP 0.8978 0.9102 Close: 0.9024
USD/CHF 1.1136 1.1242 Close: 1.1175
EUR/CHF 1.4657 1.4786 Close: 1.4709
AUD/USD 0.6580 0.6751 Close: 0.6604
USD/CAD 1.2189 1.2494 Close: 1.2448
NZD/USD 0.5390 0.5509 Close: 0.5415
My order got filled @79.50 AAPL, Wish me luck