Comments on: Deja Vu All Over Again

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 06:59:54 +0000

“if you go back to Sept and Oct trading, as VIX traded along the upper BB, while S&P traded along its lower BB. So, it may be premature to think that selling is over.”

Right — the slaughter may just be getting started. Late Aug – early Sep’s similar action to recent $VIX events heralded the worst two months in the 59 years of S&P data I downloaded. This chart summarizes my disjoint posts:

http://i39.tinypic.com/2r7lbis.gif

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:45:08 +0000

Since the distance between here and the old top being retraced is about $100, the fibs are easy. Mohan (below) is looking for a 23.6% bounce to 865. 38.2% would be 875-880, 50% 890ish, 61.8% would probably home in on those old 918ish short-term tops, which I don’t expect — lotta resistance in the way now.

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:40:20 +0000

http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/why-to-get-to-know-signor

has resistance zones and Fib levels. 50% retracement from current 840ish levels back toward the 940ish top would be 890ish, and the subsequent fall would finish a H&S top in the S&P.

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:36:47 +0000

We may indeed get an $SPX bounce here, and i an half in cash to try to harvest some bargain FAZ at the top of it, but we need to be alert to the possibility of a bounce being of short height and duration, as influenced by Fibs and resistance zones shown in

http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/why-to-get-to-know-signor

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 05:30:47 +0000

“Last time S&P traded below lower BB and VIX near upperBB, the bounce was spectacular.”

Careful — look at the BB, 20dMA, RSI, and MACD curling upward. Then look what happened starting in late Aug after similar indications. We may see a spectacular move, all right — in the $VIX, with S&P heading below November lows.

By: Tom (formally know as tom)

Tom (formally know as tom) — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 03:26:30 +0000

BAC is Toast Toast Toast……the whole wheat kind that taste like cr@p. I’ve said that before as you probably recall when BAC was at $14. Really sad. Oh well.

WFC is also going to suprise to the downside and required a hand-out…but their report timing is good and the affect on banks of the commerical colapse has not been revealed yet. Luckily, they are also somewhat shielded by the SBA. Look into the SBA exposure – it will be a tital wave.

I’ve got a SBA loan myself on a large commercial building. Only had to put 10% down! Yeah!

By: Mohan

Mohan — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 02:25:51 +0000

I don’t think everything is as bad as it was in October. Somethings have obviously improved – like credit is flowing again, TED spreads improved – which are still high compared to historical terms.

One other reason I am expecting a bounce tomorrow is the ECB is expected to lower the rates by a min of 50 bps tomorrow. If they lower by 100 bps, the market and the financials could bounce for a day or two.

My high S&P target is 865.

Check these indices:
CDX NA HY (North American High Yield Corporate) back above 1300.
Europe Cross-over Index: Back over 1000.
CMBX-NA-AAA-5 (as of yesterday) at 675 (Panic level was above 750)

http://www.markit.com/markit.jsp?jsppage=indices.jsp

By: momoney

momoney — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 01:56:51 +0000

What is the consensous as far as S&P targets if we have a bounce?

By: mk_zajak

mk_zajak — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 01:45:29 +0000

Mohan – what about the TED spread? It seems to be coming down. Will that have a greater impact on lending?

By: FLguy

FLguy — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 01:16:19 +0000

As for AAPL, herd mentality. Buying calls to fill the gap down.