I have to be at a conference during this week. I won’t be able to make intraday remarks. Looks like Idan is also not available today, that’s why Scott started this post. I will steal this chart from Uner and let you guys duke it out during the trading day. I might occasionally stop- by. Good luck.
going back to the trough with my little solars.
I have a cash account. Currently short. Take profits before EOD (in which case funds will be tied up for 3 days) or is there a general consensus that we will be hitting s&p 860ish by the end of the week? I’d prefer not to get locked out if we go lower over the next few days, but I don’t want my gains to be erased by an EOD rally. Thoughts?
Take 1/2 off.
If you are unsure and have to ask, better to take profits. Would you rather be in the market now, or when the market is overbought and shows signs of additional selling pressure? It will take more than 3 days to see clear signals again. I wish I practiced what I preach though, but that’s what I’ve learned from failing to set stops due to the 3 day rule.
My VIX indicator says a short squeeze is coming…watch out shorts…
VIX is approaching resistance in the form of MA20 (44,94) on the daily chart. But a short squize? What do you base that on? What ever timeframe I look on, All I see is higher highs and higher lows. RSI is getting close to overbought on the hourly….but a short squize? Seriously?
To add to my DIG call – many stocks look ready for some upside:
XOM (gapped lower -> closed higher reversal candle)
APA pullback to fibonnaci after rally
PBR,CHK,ETP,VLO,CRR,BP,MRO
Some of my favorite energy stocks all look decent. Perhaps consider hedging by going short INT and going long XOM.
testing lows again…
Who pooped in the pool?
humbling…oh well.
anybody know if something just happened or is this program trading?
tightening belt…still oversold on 60min…
The black boxes are for sure picking up on all the technical damage. You can see it on these little bitty charts of nine of the usual suspects:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?$SPX,$INDU,$COMPQ,$RUT,$TRAN,$NYA,$DJUSFN,$DJUSRE,$DJUSEN
They all broke support from the 20dMA (blue) and the 50dMA (red). Both MAs are turning downward, and the 20, if it ever reached the 50 from below, has turned and is re-crossing the 50 back downward, or is probably about to. All of them had formed bear flags, which have broken downside, so next stop is probably that collection of old short-term bottoms at around S&P=857, and Fibs around 860 or a bit above. Same for the lowest uptrend from the Nov 20 bottom – a fan of four of those formed and each has failed downside in its turn. Four is usually the beginning of a nasty dip. For EW freaks, most agree that wave 4 ended at S&P=943ish, with wave 5 down starting. These are indeed things the black boxes will be seeing and selling. Here we are now with S&P in the mid-860′s, where the next significant level of support should start to operate, so we need to watch indicators etc. pretty closely to decide if support holds here and S&P makes a dead-cat bounce to build the right shoulder of the H&S top that may have been forming since mid-Dec. If that materializes, it could be a good opportunity for short-term traders to exploit in both directions, or us guys in cash accounts may either just wait it out, or sell bear ETFs and try to buy back in a bit cheaper, rather than buy bull ETFs for a ride up that may be too short for us to trade. I need to look at the timing of the construction of that left shoulder from 857 to 919 to 857 back in the 2nd half of Dec, assuming a bounce starts to materialize off of support here in the 860ish area.
THX unersaettlich..
Not sure what the bears are doing here. This is a buying opportunity. I’m very stubborn and still thinking DIG or ERX are good plays.
shooting themselves…we need a pull-back to sustain a run.
What happened you ask?
Market reached up and touched 20day on 15 minute chart and then started to sell off. Here comes Woo’s 860.
Look at GS, broke support, WFC also broke support, something is up on Finanical
citigroup R.I.P.
i hit my targets and i’m out. i don’t see this ship sinking much more than 865 on the day before a bounce
I’m currently out but thought it might go as low as 857 before bouncing (maybe by tomorrow?)
Anyone playing bounce to the long side, or just waiting for right time to re-load on short positions?
sure…just watching events…catching knives is the hard part.
im only playing an oil bounce through HOU … in at $9.05 … small pos.
xlf is setting new lows 10.94. Keeping Faz
sold off 2/3 position. will keep the rest. i see no dangerous rally on the horizon for this earnings week.
STILL running. Wow.
Gotta give Oscar some credit… his call for the day is playing out nicely… see if we get as low as 850′s. (originally posted this morning, post #2)
OMNI SAYS TO SELL THE MID TO HIGH 890.00(s).
PLACE YOUR BUY STOPS ABOVE…
(FOR EXACT ENTRY, EXIT AND STOP PLACEMENT LEVELS PLEASE SIGN UP AS A GOLD CLASS MEMBER HERE…
OMNI PROFIT OBJECTIVE = THE HIGH TO MID 850.00(s) WITH SUPPORT EXPECTED IN THE HIGH 870.00(s) AND AGAIN IN THE LOW 870.00(s) AREAS ON THE WAY DOWN. I WILL KEEP YOU INFORMED VIA THE FLASH UPDATE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE TRADING SESSION. ALWAYS EXIT ALL OMNI TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS BY THE CLOSE OF THE TRADING SESSION UNLESS OTHERWISE INSTRUCTED.”
It never got up to the mid 890′s
SRS Big Resistant on 67, if not close above 67, sell everything
it takes 3 hammers on 5min to put this big boy to bed.
you can see why Obama needs TARP on day 1
I’m getting really tired of moving my lower trendline on SPX – LOL. Baseed on the daily, this is ust the beginning. I’m waiting on a good pennant to enter again. I hope that won’t be too late.
beginning of downtrend? waiting to enter short, correct?
Correct. This thing has to put in a flag and consolidate some (I hope). Not going after the falling knife with additional funde.
What do you think woo, this about done and ready for your wave up?
my 50 retrace is at 866.39. the 1:618:1 wave 3:wave1 is at 862.90
might bounce now. might go a little lower.
looks like it hit the 50 and bounced up to prior support, would like it to fail and drop to the 618 for a quick long position.
The descending upper trendline will be around 881-880 by end of day and will intersect with former support – making it even tougher to break through on Kenny’s chart
yeah…879.65 is the retrace of the drop. 4 waves sometimes don’t go up to the retrace, but that’s a good target area. it’s also the fib of two other waves i’ve been looking at, so it should be a strong spot to break. it’s also 15 points above the low. i’ll be loading up on a load of puts at that 880 area.
Are you going to try to play calls on the 15 pts up?
yup! =)
WOO
WHEN SHOULD I EXIT MY SHORT???? YOU ARE THE MAN
it already hit the 866 area twice. i might just get out of shorts now to be safe. when wave 4 hits, it’s going to go wild. we’re also oversold. we’re going to pop soon. the 866 is pretty much what i was looking for all day and completes my ew in a gorgeous way. i’m looking at around 880 for the next peak, but i’ll get a more exact number in a little bit.
The true colors is coming out in 15 minutes
Amen
mav, where are u? What is your forecast, I am out of all my SRS for now
Still shorting WFC
60m SPX has trendline support coming in at 862ish. Now that has not ment crap today. This thing has sliced thru supprt without hesitation. BUT – 60m is oversold (not saying that it can’t get more oversold). I’d take some shorts off the table there and wait to see what the last 20m has to offer. This will upset the world’s markets and this thing could g around the world for a week of trouble. Like dominos.
yeah, even if it drops to the 862 levels, it’s not much of a profit. i would rather play the upswing here, and if it hits 862, load up even more. i don’t see it going beyond this point.
you said your wave 4 has a target of ~940ish?
nope. that’s a different 4 wave. there’s a larger CYCLE EW. that’ll start when this 5 wave down is over, and it could rally into february taking us to 940′s and maybe higher.
the current 4 wave has already started. 864 was the low of the day. right in between my 50 retrace and my 1:618:1 ratio (at 862.9) for the wave 3 that just completed. this wave 4 should go up to about 879-880 with maybe 2 points overshooting for a small bear trap. then we should be headed lower to about 840′s at least before the rally begins around there.
when the rally into feb ends, we’re looking at a HUGE 5 wave down on the overall EW CYCLE. that’ll take us into the new lows below the 700′s.
i’ve got calls into tomorrow (normally don’t do this), to ride up to 880, and then selling their to load on puts. into end of tuesday and wednesday.
xlf retetsting intraday lows . Still holding all shorts
im not sure how you can draw trend lines in SRS…. im holding some until high 70s. all i can see is overhead resistance levels. its so choppy and the curve so steep im not sure if any trendline could be trusted. seems $65 has been blown right through and higher we go.
SPG and try TA there?
exited my shorts in HAS and MS – staying short GOLD and long OIL overnight. keeping some SRS for rest of week. good luck all. 850 could be a fair target and im not doubting that this could be our monthly scheduled trend until mid month. stall out the third week. rise the fourth week and begin falling again a few days into Feb.
Re-enter SRS, Keep it overnight
that’s crazy talk…I’m finished with SRS for a few days. In URE at 4.566
Holding URE overnight…was too juicy watching the last second gains.
(I’m waiting for an SRS re-entry this week)
I sold half my FAZ. If market bounces, I ride it out with the other half; we all know FAZ is headed for 300 or 500 sooner or later, right? And if no bounce, I can get into SRS without any delay.
Some short covering at EOD but Tomorrow could easily be day 5 down of this wave which would be a classic case. I’m still holding on to some FAZ, SRS, and EEV. Assuming overseas market down tonight EEV should still open a bit higher tomorrow AM.
And the big flare of the day on the SPY is a green one up to 88.55
what happened to the flare guy. There’s flare on spy.
I’m the backup flare guy.
rebuilt portfolio:
ESLR
URE
UCO
DIG
AA
Look at the qqqq’s go trying to make it back to the 50 day.
Might have some weakness thru the AM. I’m expecting turn tomorrow afternoon. TWM, SDS and all are topping out, but may still have some slight room to run. you can swing them one more day I believe. Overseas markets will not like this and should react negatively which should continue weakness in the AM briefly. 60m SPX was oversold coming into today. What do you think it looks like now. Need some consolidation – but maybe not – remember the week in October! Daily’s are just turning to sell. This is not over. VIX has a boner.
AA Reporting much bigger than anticipated loss….. Can someone tell me if this will cause the market to go down to 850′s ?? I have 1/3 of my shorts still and want to know if I should hold them or not.
Thanks in advance for all responses
trading has been halted for a while…don’t know what’s cookin
Its trading up now!!
pretty straight forward day. the real money will come tomorrow.
Hey Woo,
You sounded bullish earlier, do you still feel we will go up tomorrow after AA reporting bad numbers??
that’s what the EW says. 880ish, and then a bigger drop. the whole day i was expecting 866 to hit and it did right on the numbers. this was a near perfect 3 wave down right down to its definition.
EW and TA have just been accurate, even when the feelings tell you to do otherwise, or there are bad numbers reports or earnings, in the end, the news about the market’s move happens after the market moves, not before. the news never predicts the market, the market always precedes the news.
if you want you can just wait out the possibly rise to 878-880. and debate shorting from there. could be safer. and more money to be had.
Thanks man YOU ROCK!!! Happy trading tomorrow.
one word of caution that i mentioned in a previous post. 4 waves sometimes don’t go all the way back to a retrace. so maybe 880 won’t hit, but it’ll still be near there, if my wave counts are correct.
Woo:
What is your expectation for the drop after 880 is hit ?
Thanks
hold on to your kids (or jewels)
Sorry guys had gone out for a late lunch/tea with a friend. Was on a neutral stance and did not trade today (and looks like I missed a nice short opportunity in C, congrats to the bears!!).
Intermediate term – this market is giving us mixed signals. We may have a nice bounce later this week/next week (Late tuesday/wednesday). Short term into tomorrow morning the decline doesn’t appear complete. 850 is definitely possible, but we are not adding to any side yet – since we missed the majority of the ride down.
Looking at GLD – Gold looks ready for the 680 low now. We believe this should be the last correction leg in gold before a multi month bottom.
That’s right in line with the EWI chart on $XAGX (Gold). They have it heading down to 650 on the last leg of a 7-leg corrective wave 2. Prices just broke the previous higher low, looks like it’s headed down to the bottom of the wedge. After the 7th leg finishes around 650 in about 2 months, a strong 3rd wave begins, which should last a couple of years.
Hmm, my perspective is more from a cycle stance. Gold’s 8 year cycle low is around mar 09. So I am guessing there won’t be time for gold to do crazy “acrobatics”.
We think gold may go down and hit the rising trendline from 2000 – (a possible double bottom?) and then start in wave 3. Ofcourse, it is too early to say but the signs are encouraging.
NY ROUNDUP – Monday, January 12, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury Paulson: Government shouldn’t tell banks how to lend
Atlanta FED Lockhart: FED has “ample scope” to help growth
GS Sharply Lowers European Q4 GDP forecast to -1.3% q/q
S&P puts Spain’s AAA-rated government debt on CreditWatch
COMMENTS
Thinking ahead – as watching behind hasn’t helped. Focus should be on the Bernanke speech tomorrow to the LSE at 8am EST. He has a chance to justify his actions so far and push the envelope of quantitative easing, inflation targeting and more discussion of the FED balance sheet vs. the risks of deflation. The US trade report will also set a tone as the global slowdown probably hits hardest on the exporters – and this will highlight the pain. But we can’t see tomorrow before we close out today – So here it is – the worst two-day downturn in equities for over a month ends with S&P500 off 2.3% and with it hopes for an easy bull market in 2009. The consensus forecasts for S&P500 are for 17% up but the path to get their varies with many expecting this short-covering rally to die early and then form a bottom somewhere in March as the economy begins to turn. These all turned south today – but not because of any heavy news stories but more a potpourri of tidbits. The drop in state tax receipts, warnings on bank earnings, warnings on autos, warnings from the IMF, continued Russian natgas issues, continued doubts about China and its buying of commodities, continued war in Gaza, continued risk aversion moves in FX with EUR/JPY closing below 120 and JPY below 89.50. The list isn’t huge but its sufficient to put the doubt back into investors as they struggle to balance the notable improvements in some credit spreads against the fear that a Goodhart’s law will make that improvement less significant. The struggle of officials to get it right will continue to drive markets – and clearly the Bernanke speech tomorrow will set that tone – but so too with the saga of TARP 2 and a vote Thursday or the CPI, PPI reports. The ECB rate decision Thursday will be another turning point for the markets as many today decided it was inevitable for another 100 bps easing. GS downgraded its growth forecasts for Europe in 4Q and the market sold EUR below levels where the technicals make a rally anything more than a bounce. Traders see 1.30-1.35 rather than 1.33-1.38 as they did on Friday. So trading on tomorrow will drive on the hope that officials get it right because very few others seem to be even pretending to take a stand. Investing in these markets is like going to a red-neck bar to watch the mechanical bull riders get thrown off the saddle. As you drink away the sad country music about dogs dying and wives leaving and trains leaving the stations – the horror of watching a brave soul get thrown to the ground makes the present just a little less painful. This mechanical bull doesn’t yet fear the bears.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3289 1.3447 Close: 1.3396
USD/JPY 88.89 90.09 Close: 89.06
EUR/JPY 118.67 120.92 Close: 119.30
GBP/USD 1.4811 1.5030 Close: 1.4846
EUR/GBP 0.8942 0.9030 Close: 0.9023
USD/CHF 1.1098 1.1228 Close: 1.1131
EUR/CHF 1.4854 1.5035 Close: 1.4911
AUD/USD 0.6788 0.6899 Close: 0.6820
USD/CAD 1.1935 1.2176 Close: 1.2147
NZD/USD 0.5763 0.5828 Close: 0.5788
some one start a new intraday blog?