Comments on: Musings from a Bond Expert

By: Mohan

Mohan — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:05:57 +0000

Tom,

Even if down-trend is broken, if you assume that the down-trend line will be tested again (as a support), we could see new lows.

By: Tom (formally known as tom)

Tom (formally known as tom) — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:13:59 +0000

Here is a quick chart – criticize at will.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/sp011108-1?context=user

By: Tom (formally known as tom)

Tom (formally known as tom) — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 03:34:47 +0000

Hi Unersaettlich,

I have always disagreed with using 741 for any slope point. A better point is 800 because that day it shot back up to 800. Using 800 shows a multi-point support line; whereas, 741 does not.

Using 800, means we are in a rising channel and blows your wedge concept.

If we break down pass the 50dma, well then….I’m wrong. I am prepared to turn and run…but right now I am long selective stocks that I believe are oversold.

Also, if the Treasuries are artificially low (which I am convinced) and thus driving investors into risky stocks….who am I to fight that trend.

By: zerosum

zerosum — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 00:50:13 +0000

funny you mentioned Armagedon….

peter schiffs endgame view of how the treasury and corporate bond maket will implode and hyperinflation will take over

http://www.europac.net/externalframeset.asp?from=home&id=15132

i know most of the site is short term trading in nature….but it doesn’t hurt to know possible endgames in advance…

By: Schweizer

Schweizer — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 23:05:42 +0000

Or not:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/look-up-in-the-sky-its-a-bird

By: draino76(uberbear)

draino76(uberbear) — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 22:21:17 +0000

My god. Armagedon is coming. I hope it is short and sweet.

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 21:30:35 +0000

All you need to see for XLF, which follows $DJUSFN, is to look at the $DJUSFN charts in the groups near the bottom of this comment, which also discusses some features of the charts:

http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2348194%3ABlogPost%3A11634&page=1#comment-2348194_Comment_11712
:

By: Unersaettlich

Unersaettlich — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 21:25:26 +0000

Any S&P rise above about 920 is probably out of the question for some time to come. Charts show prices failing to rise thru flat or downward-bending narrowed Bollinger Bands. This is how bear market rallies have ended since S&P made its ATH.

http://social.stocktock.com/photo/sp-longerterm-bear-feast

Even if a rise to 920 occurs, it would have to be soon, and would probably just complete the construction of a H&S top whose left shoulder and head developed in previous weeks.

My prognosis is on the following chart, which I borrowed and annotated to show strong disagreement with it earlier today:

http://tinyurl.com/9taezo

By: Steven

Steven — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 18:33:55 +0000

Hope somebody can count the waves of XLF. What is the reason why we are here. SPY will follow the move of XLF.

Somebody, help!

By: Annoyed Again

Annoyed Again — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 17:13:24 +0000

Fantastic article Mohan, thank you for passing it along. I find myself trying to step back a little and take a look at the big picture to make sure that I’m not falling into a pit of total despair with my thinking. It’s so easy to get caught up in the swirl of dread and negativity and not realize it. But so far when I do step back and reassess, I don’t feel I’m in the wrong frame of mind. The only question is on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, where will the markets go. I’m ready to make the swing trades, but its difficult to peg them right now.

Headed down and then up to 1000 on the S&P before the big drop?
Headed up from here to the 1000 level before the big drop?
Headed down to new lows now?

All options are still on the table. I rely on the more knowledgable EW folks to willingly share their thoughts and there is no consensus right now. Besides it would be boring if there was.