1:44pm
The markets are setting up for another sell off.. We are now under the 50% retracement and retesting it as resistance on low volume. This can be a potential short here, although I rather play long when we reach the 61.8% retracement at 89$ on the SPY.
8:37am
The markets are now slightly lower, and we are about to open just about at the 50% retracement whichi is at 90.04$. Assuming we open at this level, I’ll be looking to buy for a potential intraday bounce.
As goes JPM, so goes the financials
As go the financials, so goes the market.
JPM breached the lower BB today. Before trying to figure out what it means – a recap.
- Last time it kissed the lower BB for the first time was on Nov 11 at about 32.50.
- Selling continued Nov 11-Nov 20 while the stock was tracing the lower BB.
- Nov 20 JPM decisively closed below the line
-Nov 21 it traded completely below the lower BB. Fierce rebound happened on Nov 24.
Today’s technicals (Stochastic, RSI, MFI and MACD) are identical to Nov 11. Not extremely oversold but getting there. Only difference is that – today JPM is not grazing lower BB, but it is piercing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55030556115
Wells Fargo chart looks similar.
Now – the question to the TA gurus here:
Will JPM will sell off like Nov 11-Nov21 period? Or rebound like Nov 24?
XLF looks like it’s hanging on by it’s fingernails but the market isn’t breaking down.
Does MS look ripe for a fall to anyone?
http://i41.tinypic.com/28o58j.gif
MS has run into resistance from upper BB and usually falls back about 20% to 20dMA from there as you can see from previous spikes of upper BB on above chart. Much better outlook than XLF or JPM charts posted above, tho; guess it helps to have friends at the Treas. Dept. . . .
Thanks for that.
SPX starting “C” of ABC corrective to the last move down. I’m looking for a top in the 910/915 (perhaps topping around 2:30 reversal time) area, and then the start of the next 5 wave move down, with a target of 850ish over the next several days.
$VIX Bull flag on the 5m.
That’s possible. ABC gives you alternation between 4 and 2.
In fact I think I will take that as a trade. Good eye.
T2012,
What are you looking at buying?
I think that’s Oscar plan as well..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLjhcvk7vvA
Brian Shannon says (Talking about QQQQ):
The market is finding some stability above the prior resistance and location of 50% retracement near 30.00. More consolidative action today and tomorrow could set up a good rally into options expiration next week. If sellers return, the 2970-2980 level will be critical to hold.
Interesting. thanks.
HMMMMMMMMM …. what i see is a gorgeous head and shoulders on the 1 minute and break of 900 coming. sold some srs at $55.50 and im going to buy some more if you are right. however, i favour a move lower on this H&S pattern. neckline of 899. otherwise im riding this thing down to the 892 level and see if that holds.
yes, market looks really weak. may not get the c move
Intraday… so not expecting much until 2pm; I’m keeping a small bias to the upside (910) short-term here, just based on the wave count. Risk-reward wise though, the downside is much more interesting.
I agree. I’m waiting for that trade. These wedges are notorious for false breakouts.
$1,000 dollar tax cut to families is not going to fix consumer spending. not a chance. $80 per month for people $100,000 underwater in mortgages and banks selling properties in Detroit and Cleveland $1,000 wont help families either. this is getting really ugly.
$SPX tightening spiral- symetrical triangle…prepare for both.
Yup. on the 5m higher lows for price, RSI, and SS. And lower highs.
Anyone followed SGR (Shaw Group) lately? Been watching and just missed out on the pre-market buy at $21.50–could kick myself silly. Now it is at $25.76 (down from a high of $27.25). Crazy overbought now…too late. Any thoughts about the best Inverse ETF’s to play to try to catch the (inevitable ?) drop on these overbought stocks?
HASbro is even getting a bit of a butt kicking this morning on all thier glorious “this wont hurt us news” im short at $30
what will next Xmas shopping season be like for toys?
careful…Hasbro is very technological advanced for an old dog. I’d keep a close stop. Better than expected earnings are par for the course this month.
Will wade in on MS 17.50 Jan puts if it pushes a bit closer to the BB lid on the 10min. Yes, no, maybe?
Liking AAPL 90 puts better. More liquidity/volume. Jumping in.
Mohan,
You still watching Nike for a possible short?
Yes. I will short it at a close below 48, if other indicators also look bearish.
$Rut is staying in the rut…indexes acting independent.
market is looking stronger. we might backtest the 903 price support area (if we do at all), and then say bye bye…
bye bye higher?
yeah, possibly higher. this 900 has been a pretty strong support…
it does appear like a rounding bottom at 900…I’m hedged…banks feel weak.
well it’s about to touch 900 again…we’ll see which way it goes. i’ve still got no positions haha.
I would think bye bye lower…because if its a symetrical triangle its a continuation pattern.
SKF you make me smile.
JPM and XLF at lows for the day!
I heard that 11.50 is strong support for XLF and if that goes then Bye Bye lower
do not fear SRS
fear wont make you $$
We’re impulsing; this signifies we’re starting the next 5 wave movement that takes us to test the 857 level.
I’ve seen several references to the next wave 5, but do not understand what that is. Can someone direct me anywhere where this is described in detail?
Thanks
http://www.google.com/search?q=“elliot+wave”+tutorial
is 900 the 10 day VWAP or what?
$SPX right on trendline from November lows.
isn’t that crazy…knife catching time.
A few more points…892-890 looks more exact for a penetration of that trendline:
Of course Kenny has this visualized for us:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409&cmd=shows150513112&disp=O
Roger that:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-at-trendline
still a long way to go…
Closed the puts. In at 2.30. Out at 2.60 I’ll take it
Want a scary scenario for the bulls? A better then expected jobs loss number tomm and a huge sell-off. If so many are expecting a “buy the bad news” scenario, or “it’s already priced in”….I would expect this to be the start of the next wave lower.
It would be the opposite everyone expects from the market. The dip buyers would get caught holding their stocks and the selling would force them to rush for the exits ASAP. The news over the past two days has been horrible but the buyers haven’t really been hurt that bad, if at all. We haven’t seen a move lower throughout the day, just poor opens that wiggle around and aren’t hurting the morning buyers.
I really want to short Roche Holding AG RHHBY.
99% of people taking tamiflu have had no positive results this year…AP story.
Dangerous play, but may be worth it. Bird Flu is not at the forefront anymore. I made a small mint on the Bird Flu scare and Roche. If the scare comes back I’ll be long. That is one I watch for all the time.
we need an
Go on ….
i agr
$SPX in a jam between the 20ma and the 50ma/10m. Positive divergence suggests it will bust through the 50ma/10m and run a bit.
We shall see.
Small position in QLD – well supported by ma’s and price channel, and a bullish wedge that it just busted out of.
OK – this worked. $SPX has room to run. RSI on the 10m only at 59.
i’ve also been leaning towards a bull position short term and overnight…waiting for a good moment to get in.
The QLD was the only UltraL that I could find that was set-up right.
i bought spy calls at a 93 strike.
My SPX chart stopped updating!! I notice that CNBC is down too. Anyone else have this problem???
nevermind. It’s back now.
Yup. Switched to SPY.
I have been having horrible connection to this site, Kenny’s 1 min stopped updating and my TOS screen stopped updating. I had to close it all down and restart.
Working now.
$SPX smackin’ price resistance from 12/31.
Shorts getting scared yet? Be careful guys… I doubt all of you can be that confident in those shorts at this point…Especially that SRS… look at these REITS refusing to pullback. To me, we either continue the trend up or level off and go dead. Just sticking with my oil long from 32 and that’s it.
Scared? I’m a trader, not some emotional high school cheerleader.
I don’t get scared, hoss.
Not really tryna pick a fight here mah man but as a trader you do need to ease off and realize when you might be wrong am I right? That’s all I’m sayin. And just curious.. what is a hoss?
Does this hurt SRS badly after the close, going into tomorrow?
UPDATE: Fed To Release Mortgage Purchase Data At 3 PM ESTLast update: 1/8/2009 2:15:45 PM(Updates with change of expected time for release and explanation in first and second paragraphs)
By Prabha Natarajan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–The Federal Reserve, which started buying mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and Ginnie Mae this week, is expected to release its purchase tab around 3 p.m. EST (2000 GMT) Thursday. The release had initially been expected at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) as part of the Fed’s balance sheet, which is published every Thursday. But because the purchases haven’t settled yet, the data will be published separately on the New York Fed’s Web site. Since Monday, the New York Fed has been buying these mortgage securities in a bid to boost the sagging investor interest in these bonds and stabilize the housing market. The central bank has said it would buy up to $500 billion of these securities in the first half of the year, and more if needed. Market participants expect the Fed’s purchases to be in the range of $3 billion to $4 billion daily, if it were to keep its aggressive purchase plan. The extent of Fed purchases is expected to prompt other investors, who had shied away from this market, to return. The presence of the Fed in the mortgage-backed securities market has pushed risk premiums on these bonds to tighter levels. As a result, mortgage rates that homeowners pay are expected to fall.
Gotta be honest here, I’m getting ready to take off the bear glasses. The news flow isn’t affecting any action and the Fed has too many tricks up its sleeve.
Best just to read the charts. In my first post and chart of the day (above) I mentioned the bullish divergence in the $SPX and the downchannel it was in. When it broke out of the down channel I covered shorts I held for 3 days and waited to see where things would go. We tested the 897 support twice (double bottom) and chiseled away at the 20ma until it broke and then chiseled away at the 50ma till it broke. I then went long the QLD with a stop underneath. The QLD now has a 20ma crossing over the 50ma and price is now in an up nice channel. When it breaks out of the channel, I take profits again.
If one just uses the charts and ignores the news (and CNBC) you can profit in either direction if you make smart entries and exits, and use STOPS to avoid loses.
It’s not that hard and you completely avoid the emotional torment.
Remember, as a StockTocker – We don’t trust opinions, we trust the charts. ™
Indicators are getting ready to buy on 60m. Volume is low. could produce bear flag, but I am not sure. Seems that most indicators are still overbought and need a break. Are we simply going to ignore the WMT and jobs numbers. Are we in who gives a shit mode?
The more that people keep coming off the bear bandwagon the more certain I am of the ‘left field’ scenario crushing the market. SRS may be held back currently by forces unknown to you and I but one thing is certain. The CRE Market is screwed. I am heavily involved in it and am CERTAIN of this. No way out. EVEN a bailout wont help not that one’s coming.
I live in NY and EVERY Bank (Citi, JPM, Wachovia, etc,etc,etc) is desperately trying to uinload their PERFORMING loans for 40-80 cents on the dollar. Very few people are biting.
I can buy THOUSANDS of houses in Michigan for $70-$500 because the banks dont want to service the loans and maintain the properties. $70!!!!!!!! Buy them as gifts, lol.
Folks you have no idea what coming around the corner. Much worse then most think. In Real Estate. as for every other industry I really cant say but certainly doesnt look good.
The market ‘pricing it in’ is true only to a certain point.
I know but how long will they keep the market up like this. It’s making me nuts sometimes.
Nicw info, thanks. Bloomberg radio (maybe the only truth left in media) was reporting in early Dec about the impending CRE crisis to come. I’m with you. It has to happen. Circuit City was the first big box to file for bruptsy and more will follow. The WMT news this AM was a very telling point. How, if WMT sales were down, will the other retailers fare? Everyone left the other retailers to go shop at WMT. Strip malls and big malls will fail soon. No one is reporting it. The big HUSH has the immenent news locked up. Until then we have to play the charts as we see them. Wave 5 is coming. It is out there and the ultimate bottom is not yet in. At least a test of the last bottom is yet to occur.
Shanky what do you think of Cobra from stockcharts topping signals. Haven’t followed him that long but he is has been right since I started in november.
$SPX backtesting the bowtie on the 10m.
We are bouncing off the trendline on this chart:
http://i39.tinypic.com/nog6dj.png
MACD is turning up (bullish) as is STO (bullish).
Look where the upper trendline is. Yup, 950-960. We might get there.
When the lower trendline gets tested next, the 4th time, they usually crack.
As per your chart last week; right at options expirations. Great PUT/short opportunities ahead.
Nice chart. The direction makes sense going into opex. Also, Brian and Mav, who have done a good job of calls from the long side during this rally up both have said more upside is coming.
Also keep in mind sometimes, during a breakdown, it doesn’t get back up to test the trendline. It fails pre-maturely as people are eager to sell into any rally attempt and it takes a dive through the support line.
S135 – what you think about a whipsaw to throw us even further overbought or is that too much to ask with Jobs numbers out tomorrow. It is obvious this thing has to come down sooner or later, but volume is not there to move the markets. Pasani said the big boys were on the sidelines till the innauguration and maybe that is so. Thus, the amatures keep this thing headed up. Any thoughts or is that ficticious analogy to much to digest? I may be getting diusional. What do those three big screens tell you?
See the post above and remember:
as a StockTocker – We don’t trust opinions, we trust the charts. ™
Quit thnking and start tradin’
agreed. i’ve got my spy calls and looking for a good profit from them. i don’t see anything above blocking the way till maybe around low 940s then 953, then 966 from a previous wave (it’ll be give or take a few points since this is from over a month ago.
I held my nose and bought some calls too. they’re going to pull some shenanigans with the jobs numbers on Fri. just look at how they kept the market up all day.
Got cold feet. Sold them at the close. I’d rather go flat into tomorrow. Let come what may.
I’m gonna wait till tomorrow am and hope for a gap down open then buy all i can to go long….
We need to start a StockTockers “Do not use” list of words:
1. Hope
2. Wish
3. Pray
4. Luck
5. “Feel”
6. ……
StockTockers – We don’t trust opinions, we trust the charts. ™
i have a retrace at 910. looks like we’re settling right under it.
So help me understand the rule. When is 38.2% the the most common retrace and when is 61.8%??
910 is the 38.2% retrace of the last leg down as shown on my “Start” chart today:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-10m-for-jan-8th-start
i don’t know if there’s a general rule, but i use retraces more like walls to a castle. if we break through more walls, there’s a better chance we’re headed towards the direction it’s been going.
whichever direction the overall wave is heading, i’d rarely expect any 2 or 4 movement to hit a huge 61.8 retrace of the previous movement. 50 makes you wonder a bit, 61.8 makes you flag. so i watch carefully especially on 4 movements, that might be a possible 1 movement in the opposite direction instead.
i’ll usually also use some previous wave fibs for similarities, especially if they are mirrored (some call it head and shoulders, a term i hate). it’s like looking at how a similar castle fared in previous circumstances.
so right now i’m looking at about 40 fib retraces. combine it with various EW and other TA and make conclusions from there.
I think it’s just one of those generally accepted EWT axioms. 38.2% is regarded as the most common retracement, and by default the most likely retrace of a predecessor wave.
61.8% is at the outside edge of the retrace window, however waves 2s very often do retrace 61.8% of wave 1s.
The gap between 61.8% and 71.8% is a kind of DMZ for wave count validation. When crossing over 61.8% you should seriously begin elevating the probability of alternate wave counts. If and when you cross 71.8% retracement you are in “enemy territory” and should consider the current wave count invalid.
Just bought some SRS, Wish me luck!
First day in a while that SRS didn’t dump at close…
Sorry, jinxed ya.
Spoke too soon?
I’m gettting long ES just before the close today. Thinking tomorrow after the numbers are released we will have an “all clear” . More or less buy the rumor sell the news.
I’m with you, but will wait for a big panic drop pre-market then buy long ES.
Everyone has been so nervous the last two days since ADP reports shows a loss of 693K.
After tomorrows release of NFP at 8:30 we won’t have a worry in the world and equities will correct higher.
People are used to the daily shocks by now
BUT…The market will adjust. S135 keeps pointing out the S&P earnings totals and multiplying them by 8 or so tog et SPX 300 and change. Cold hard facts are coming. Over the next 60 days you will see 80-90% of compaines lowering their 2009 numbers and giving no guidance beyond that. The market will wake up one day and realize that the earnings
numbers are X, and XxY= DOOM!!!
And its all downhill from then.
IMHO
The market is not doing to bad because the losses are not as much as they could have been. I remember when stocks and the market went down because the profits were not as good as they could have been.
8X EARNINGS is a dreamland for the bears. this thing wont trade that low. i wish it would but im a realist. this joke of a market trades at 20x if you are lucky and that puts us in a mid range of 840 or so.
To any that trade options….aren’t we still seeing higher premiums on puts vs. calls? More risk betting up than down? Does the same hold true for 2X and 3X ETFS? Just curious.
There’s risk both ways. Jan options have some SERIOUS time decay. So day trade only.
Thanks. Always.
Better add that word to Popstone’s list. Never say never too.
Lost over $300 in options time decay in the last two days. Even options further out are not without risk. If we spike up (on whatever news for whatever reason) that instantly lowers the VIX and concomitantly the price of your options. Of course if it goes the other way and you own puts you’re sitting pretty.
I PRAY to FEEL HOPE, and WISH for LUCK. I think that covers the do not use works. Of course THINK could be another.
I just sold FAZ, and closed all puts.
I still have my full, underwater – I might add, position in SRS.
For the heck of it, I bought a couple of deep out of the money puts on the high-priced low-value degree seller APOL. They report after the close.
Harvard total endowment was $38b, (of which they apparently lost 30%)
This piece of sh*t trades at $12bil.
My “Sports Stadium Named After a Corporate” indicator gave a sell signal on University of Phoenix long time ago.
Chart and options trading telling that the stock cold go either way.
Oh…
I did so because inmates are running the asylum. There is no telling what they will do even if half-of-America were to be known as unemployed tomorrow.
I will re-enter my shorts some time tomorrow.
Did you look at the charts I sent you?
I just saw it. Thanks.
Correction: I still own a Feb put position in Valero.
ouch on APOL. i’m assuming you had a really small position on the puts. everyone’s been wanting this company to die, but it keeps going higher…geesh…
Not a major position. I just bought 2 Jan 65 puts. When this thing fall, it will drop 60-80 % in a week.
A lot of what they do is fleece their students for useless degrees and may very well be borderline fraud.
As overbought as this market is – if the jobs number suprises to the upside this thing could crash. Maybe “could” needs to be added to S135′s list of not to use words. Let’s just get wave four over for pete’s sake. C U 2morrow.
Bears need the jobs number to be better then expected. Let’s be honest, a whole lot of buying has taken place in anticipation of this “buy the bad news” number. If the number is better then expected, I think we actually have a BETTER opportunity to sell off then if it is a terrible number. Bulls need 800K+ jobs losses, a down open and then a push higher all day.
Lot’s of buying in front of the report tomm. We have become so conditioned to buying bad news that we are now buying BEFORE the news is out. It’s been working but it’s going to stop at some time. This from a recovering bear and soon to be trader only….
Hi shawn. Welcome to bearholics anonymous.
We “coiled up” today, so something big is coming tomorrow. Just blurted that out to show I have a firm grasp of the obvious.
Hey friends,
I missed the whole day due an appendicitis attack! Unbelieveable!
Man, all I could think about was my longs held overnight. Ggp, cbg, tc, feed, ddr.
I got very lucky today. Anyway, it was fun to read back through the daily post. Looks like there is another Tom out there that posted at the beginning of the day.
Mohan, yes still holding above.
S135-yes, would be great to get rid of the words.
My contribution to the site will be to offer DM and ADX status on stocks. It works for me to time entries and exits.
Hope you are OK. Surgery?
yep, surgery went well…pretty simple. — stuck here in the hosp…typing with one hand!..:)
Can’t wait for your return and your insight.
Tom
Take care of yourself.
$SPX 10m chart has some bullishness in it. Amazing how things change.
Bouble bottom today at support.
The 20ma is about to cross up through the 50ma.
The MACD is strong, above zero, and no divergences.
RSI is uptrending and not overbought
Strong buying EOD
Ended almost at the high of the day.
Closed above the 909.19 price resistance level.
Bearish -
STO is overbought, but that is a sign of strength too.
Only a minor uptrend channel.
At the top of that channel.
Till “Fry”day
Schweizer, just want to say thanks for the great TA you bring throughout the day. And thanks for the focus on TA you argue for repeatedly on this site. Everyone has feelings about the market but how does that help anyone else? You (and others too) are helping me greatly. Thanks again.
Back atcha Jerry. We each do our part.
From what I had been hearing, traders were pricing in a better than expected jobs number. Then Cashen came on blurted out some huge high number and dissed this morning’s not-so-bad jobs number. Who knows. Do we care? Oh that’s right. We only care about the charts.
OK then let’s look at the charts and see what they are saying. This morning we gapped down and the $SPX fell to a low of 896.81. We bascially chopped around all day but ended up with the $SPX closing at 909.73. Not a huge move by any means, rather tightly range-bound in fact, but the fact is, with the torrent of the negative information that was dumped on the market the last two days, the fact that we closed the day off the lows and slightly positive has to be viewed as neutral to slightly positive. It’s the kind of day that drives the bears absolutely up the wall, but the charts speak.
On a 30 minute chart It appears to me the “A” Wave down completed today as the “B” Wave up began late in the day which may which may take the S&P 500 up to the 915-925 area on Friday. Once the “B” Wave up ends then the “C” Wave down begins with a retest of the 896 level which is a key short term support level. 2 out of the last 3 “ABC” corrections saw the “C” wave end near the bottom of Wave “A” which was followed by another move higher. I still think it’s premature to say the high of 943 is the end of Wave 4 up in the S&P 500.
A flat would do it. It would result in no net gain because C would end at A; and B would close the gap from Thursday. The lunar cycles indicate we head lower until about the 20th, so a flat also fits the astro.