Comments on: Video ~ 1/7/09

By: FLguy

FLguy — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 13:44:57 +0000

Good Morning. Glad I held my puts overnight. Not the norm, especially this close to options expiration. The weak bull effort at yesterday’s close and various reports coming, it made some sense. APPL indicating down to 90.15 or so at the open. Likely take some profits in the first half hour and see what develops. Keeping an eye on UYG. Looks like an open around 5.40. Might play the 5.00 Feb puts on any rise later today. Have a great day.

By: foolsgold4u

foolsgold4u — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:42:56 +0000

Thank you market mike…makes a lot of sense..I guess i’ll be buying 1 dollar dxo then….if I get the chance…best of luck to you and thanks for an exit strategy on the great dug call you made..

By: MktMike

MktMike — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:02:42 +0000

I meant to say DXO was down 95% at its lows and DTO is up nearly 500-600% at its highs since July.

By: MktMike

MktMike — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:01:49 +0000

I’m not sure where DUG will go.If we see follow through tomorrow and the market continues downward, look for the 20dma as your first sell signal. There is also a trendline at 26.50, I’d definitely take some profits there. Ultimately $40 is the 38% retracement, if you believe the market is going to make new lows then you might want to hold on but I wouldn’t encourage holding a proshare.

Why I would rather hold DXO? There is much more profit potential. DTO can only fall up to 100%. DXO can profit to infinity. The same thing happened back in July, DXO and DTO were in the 30’s. DXO was down ~95% while DTO was up nearly 500-600%. You also should move your money in DXO for several reasons, ie smart money and liquidity.

By: Tom (formally know as tom)

Tom (formally know as tom) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:54:43 +0000

great stuff, Brian. thanks.

By: Brian

Brian — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:05:55 +0000

Good reading before bed. Pour a glass of milk, and grab some warm cookies.

1. Mish’s reflections on 2008, and themes for 2009:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/reflections-on-2008-themes-for-2009.html

2. Doug Kass reflects on his 2008 surprises, and his list of 20 surprises for 2009:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10455209/1/kass-20-surprises-for-2009.html

3. Michael Lewis and Dave Einhorn on our financial problems, and their solutions:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/opinion/04lewiseinhorn.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

By: foolsgold4u

foolsgold4u — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:03:49 +0000

Why do you prefer Dxo?
My thought process for shorting DTO when oil hits 35 is fairly simply. These proshare etfs love to scream higher due to their structure when their deriv’s are working for them..The reverse happens too. My 60k loss and counting on SRS!! I was just thinking if oil makes a decent move off 35 you could see rather large gains shorting DTO like the SRS move from 295 to 50…

What are you looking for as a reasonable exit on DUG? Or did your above post answer this. when oil hits 35 I should exit dug?

Thank you in advance.. and thanks for the nice call again!!

By: MktMike

MktMike — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:08:56 +0000

I’d rather enter DXO when oil hits 35 again.

By: foolsgold4u

foolsgold4u — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:20:33 +0000

How do you guys feel about a short DTO pos. when oil hits a support level?…Might not be till DTO is 200 or more but you have to think that 25-30 dollar oil might be a good spot to start shorting DTO… Thanks in advance …

foolsgold4u

By: foolsgold4u

foolsgold4u — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:18:47 +0000

I would like to thank him too..the stock gapped open but I was able to buy 400 shares when it was up around 3% early morning..,, So it was a great 5% call…I was hoping he would give me an exit to the trade…Thanks again friends..Good karma to all those who work hard and post for the little guy…Great site ..I’ve been lurking for over a month now but feel its time to join in discussion and debate…Best of Luck to all in 09..