10:57am
I am still waiting for the 38.2% retracement as a potential support level to trade on. But reversal may only occur around the 50% level.
9:37am
Fibonacci Retracement Support (SPY):
38.2% at $91.08
50% at $90.04
61.8% at $89
1:26am
The markets continue to propel higher on stronger volume, though I do believe a retracement is overdue at this point. 94.10-94.20$ is strong resistance and has served as a double top yesterday. We could see a few % move lower to retrace. Look at fibonacci retracements for support.
VIX testing trendline from 11/23. SS and STO maxed out on 5m chart. I like my rising wedge right now and this is completing the C touch. We pull back soon then one more run up and have a nice fall back to back test. then we get to run. At least that’s how i hope it works out. Bulls should make one more push before bears take over.
i have a SPX target of 625…should be there within a few weeks time (2)
OK … gotcha Tony C.
Crash Helmets and Seatbelts Required?
it’s taking it’s sweet time getting down to that 50 retrace lol…
It was waiting for me to get out of a meeting
3:00. Where we goin? Down. Grabbed AAPL 85 Jan Puts for a buck-36
ok, multiple pivots points here….who’s also using 902ish?
profit taking time…careful with your trailing stops…
ther’es 903…
We need more panic. (Volume)
yeah….i’ve got spy puts up about 13% at the moment, it was up a little more earlier, but i’ve got a stop placed if the spx hits around 904, for a good 12% or so. i’ll see what i want to do from there…
There’s the S3 bounce. Light buying too. Could we go lower still ???
im thinking ill bail on some positions on a fake break of 900
Any others considering taking a position in SSO or another long etf at the close today with the thought we’ll bounce tomorrow prior to Fridays (presumed) sell-off? News tomorrow is light…initial claims before the open.
hedge it well…I’m going to dip into some oil at the close.
I’m looking at oil services and sso. Still considering. If oil (the real currency) keeps tanking we’ll be down again tomorrow.
i go long nothing… LOL… out of some SRS at $52.20 and tried for some at $53.50 but took $53.20… ill sit on that cash and watch the bounce and scale back in. ive tried going long and my account missed my Stop Limit orders and i got crushed holding the position as i was away from my desk. cant trust my stops to kick in.
SRS buy order at $51.50
That;s right Rich! I knew that…(you are 100% short)
Holding SDS overnight, plan to buy SSO if we hit 890 or below tomorrow.
Expect down tomorrow and then massive up on Fri. Following the Dec. template.
Expecting the counter rally with volume after the jobs number Friday. May pick up Jan SPY calls tomorrow as well.
Long term puts up 30% with expansion in VIX and market drop. Good hedge against any short term long positions.
Get ready for last 30 min squeeze
906 must be breached with volume first.
SRS is such a sensitive little thing now that BK is spelled out for the major REIT’s.
Says who?
http://www.bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1143099&srvc=business&position=0
General Growth in trouble…
I misunderstood your first post. I thought you said that REITs were not in BK trouble, perhaps due to a Bailout agreement or something. Thanks.
McHugh’s newsletter last night made a good case for the action from ES 857 to 942 being Wave 1 of a five wave move up to complete C and finish out Wave 4. He looked for today’s pullback to form corrective Wave 2. If he is right, then Wave 3 up should be starting soon (it may start before today’s close). You don’t want to be short if he is right.
Correction – McHugh doesn’t refer to Wave 4 at all. He speaks of the five wave move up completing C of Cycle A of SuperCycle B. OK, no mocking of the EW weenies.
Ah … much clearer.
Your reply slipped before mine lower down. You got it.
What is target range for wave 3?
Let’s say 1.68 * wave 1 added to wave 2′s low. If wave 2 bottomed today the target would be (1.68 * 85) + 899 = 1042. That’s just wave 3.
P.S. LOL Schweizer. I know you don’t rely too much on EW. I find it interesting, and until I can learn how to do all the great TA you do, it’s something I keep an eye on.
Thanks Jerry.
Jerry, sorry but that’s not what he said. He said he isn’t sure if we completed the 1st leg of (C) of A, or whether we’ve completed all of (C) of A. He sees three legs to this bear market rally, A,B, and C. McHugh doesn’t use the 5 wave system of EWI. That makes reconciling the works of the two analysts awkward if not difficult. See some of the discussions I’ve had with DanEric about this.
Transform, take a look at page 2 of last night’s newsletter. I quote:
“It is unclear whether this coming imminent short-term top is the end of wave (C ) of A up, or whether it is merely the end of the first subwave of (C ) up, wave 1 up, with four more waves to occur before wave (C ) of A tops. Because the weekly Full Stochastics are just starting to rise from levels where multi-week rallies start (see charts on page 7), it argues that this coming short-term top is wave 1 up.”
He is talking about a 5 wave move up and makes a good case for it on the same page.
I’ve been reading McHugh’s newsletter for over a year and I can tell you you’ve got to watch this guy–he plays very fast and loose with his charts. It’s not at all clear whether (C) maps to wave (4) or whether C maps to wave (4). The statement “Full Stochastics are just starting to rise from levels where multi-week rallies start ” could just as easily apply if (C) was complete and B was underway as it could if 1 of (C) was complete and 2 of C was underway. It’s totally ambiguous as far as I’m concerned.
I’ve asked him numerous times via email to provide clarification and he has rarely responded. When he does it’s a terse one sentence answer that offers no illumination whatsover.
McHugh’s strengths are his Phi-Mate turn date, fibonacci cluster, and long term trend analysis. I grant him that but he is not much help at all when it comes to trading.
I also appreciate his PPT indicator and his secondary trend indicator. These have helped me in the past. I want to give him credit where it is due. He does after all provide value, otherwise I wouldn’t subscribe.
You nailed that analysis. These are the very conclusions I have come to about his work. Not a lot of help for a day-trader, but excellent indicators for a swing trader. If I had simply played his phi mate turn dates over the past three months (with patience) I would have made a boatload of dough. I do like to play wave 3′s, though. That’s what caught my eye last night. We may have started one this afternoon at the close. I see five waves up from the lows to form wave 1 of (1), and then three waves down to form 2 of (1), and then a strong start for 3 of (1). Could be McHugh is right. I have to get better at identifying more quickly the price signals that tell me my count is wrong.
I know. Those Phi-mate dates are so accurate they are scary.
I know the bears won’t want to hear this but…the bulls could have an ace in the hole here, so to speak. There is a huge, gaping 8 point hole at 927. Being this is not a market that likes to leave unfilled holes, especially one that size, if we go up and close that gap then this correction is most likely over. That would set the stage for the next leg up. You’re wave 3.
Agreed. The safe course would be to wait until the 942 high was exceeded, and then jump on for the ride. No guarantee in this lousy market that wave 3 would be a powerful 1.68 of wave 1 movement, though. Might end at 985 or so, then 4 and 5 might finish up C at about 1007, which is right at the previous wave 4 mark in October.
Of course, EWI and Daneric just blew this wave 3 theory out of the water! LOL.
I have front row tickets to wave 5
I’m not giving up these seats =)
I went in on the FAZ today and made a nice profit, but I’m so confused about this market! Swing or day?? Have we finally entered wave 5??
Congrats on your trade. Went with SKF…CNBC was all ga ga this morning with big banks needing more capital.
They may set up a few chairs in front of you.
if we dont see a bounce to 910-916 area at end of day maybe we are heading into the 800s tomorrow. looks like i wont be able to load back up on SRS if that is the case but ill just ride the half position i still have. better have a plan B for the cash ive gathered up today. what will you be putting your money into on a move below 900 ?
Doesn’t look like the momentum is there to break support at 902.5.
Closing at lows is bearish IMHO.
mine too keeping faz
me too, i can’t see how this will go up tomorrow
personally think closing about 900 is bullish – it wasn’t pretty, but prices held
Likewise IMNSHO.
Look how much worse XLF is doing than $SPX and GS:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?FAZ,XLF,$SPX,GS
It closed below both 20- and 50-day MA, and broke support of the uptrend from the November low. Neither $SPX nor GS suffered those wounds, but all three had their 20dMA turn downward.
I’m agreeing with the bearish guys, not rb.
Exited SDS with nice profit.
Well done.
Hourly charts say we are going to continue down a while.
RSI uptrend line did NOT hold.
i got out of my puts just in case and will wait for tomorrow to see if we break the 900 range. made a good 12% which is good enough for now.
XLF under 12…
Copied from above:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?FAZ,XLF,$SPX,GS
XLF closed below both 20- and 50-day MA, and broke support of the uptrend from the November low. Neither $SPX nor GS suffered those wounds, but all three had their 20dMA turn downward.
thought the pros would be buying USO for overnight…not.
Crude hovering at the 61.8% retracement level from $32.64-$50.XX. Has bounced off a few times today. Assuming the markets have another leg up, this should be a good buying opportunity. Sold my HOD (ultrashort NYMEX on TSX) for a nice 23% gain on the day.
im out of my HOD too.. .but im not going long nutin
Hello everyone, I’m new here. Just found out about this site. I think I’ve found a great place to learn to trade with all the tiny losses and nice profits people gather here, I’m so excited. Ciao for now.
Welcome to the board. Best I’ve found and I did some searching before settling in here.
Not many Bulls entered at EOD like yesterday per the SPY chart.
Massive final sale on the XLF though.
10m EOD candle on SPY yesterday had vol of 20.5m — green candle.
Today 10m EOD candle on SPY had vol of 18.3m — green candle.
Both end of day candles were the largest 10mn volume candles for their respective days.
Volume is still muted. Perhaps the pros are not selling either? Perhaps the bets will be placed after Fri jobs numbers.
Ah — for some reason the “sum” shows up late on my screen. You are right about the late volume today on the SPY.
Comments and link to comparison charts of XLF vs GS & $SPX (and FAZ heh heh heh) above.
xlf closed at intraday low 11.97
Scary. Do you know who was leading the charge? I guess we could check who has the highest CD yield
JPM and Wells Fargo led the way – both down 6%
Interesting..and those aren’t the ones against the ropes (not yet).
I thought BAC was the target of most naked shorts…
Uner will be gleaming!
Gloating
Comments and link to charts of XLF vs GS & $SPX above.
I’m somewhat new to this board and very appreciative of the knowledge I’ve gained here.
Out of curiosity, did TA “predict” the massive drops of 2008?
i wouldn’t say TA predicted the massive drops, but you can find key points where there will be movement in one direction or the other. when the market hits MA’s and drops below you can assume it’ll drop to the next support. with every movement in stock, new MA’s are created each moment. on this forum we use TA mostly for daytrading and short term trades.
there are more indicators than TA to predict more long term effects.
I told a friend that the S&P had built a big head & shoulders top and fallen thru its long-term uptrend back at the beginning of 2008. I also drew the new downtrend channel of the bear market and identified that it was getting steeper with another downtrend line. Of course he told me his market guru was reliable and had decided the S&P would be at about 2500 by now, so he didn’t sell his conventional stocks and funds. Similar stuff happened with five other friends, neighbors, and relatives, who are all about 40% in the hole right now. Here’s a link to an enlarged detail from the chart image that I keep around for when I get a chance to gloat. (Thanks!)
http://i42.tinypic.com/34o82dd.gif
Thank you Un. IMO you deserve to gloat if you called that. . Woo, you have really amazed me lately. You seem to be calling the market (ST) with amazing percision.
Right now I am watching and absorbing, but I hope to be able to read the signals in time. Unfortunately, my job doesn’t always allow this (not a complaint).
And thanks to everybody on this board!!!!!!!!!
I also had a similar experience trying to convince friends and family to sell back in early 2008. Only 1 in 10 people listened to me. One friend is a builder. When I explained to his wife that this was going to be on the scale of a depression she actually told me to go f*** myself. No lie. Nobody likes a Cassandra. By delivering the message you are blamed for the event. It’s a thankless task.
We form bear flag tomorrow and continue down. Not sure about jobs numbers. Market might ignore them. They could not be priced in. that is impossible in my opinioin.
XLF in trouble:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/xlf-moment-of-truth
It might be in worse trouble than even Schweizer thinks:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/ugly-xlf-is-sps-fate-still
NY ROUNDUP – Wednesday, January 7, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
Kansas City Fed Hoenig: Deflation not a “large” possibility
US ADP national employment for December shows 693,000 drop – weaker than expected
US CBO budget deficit to hit $1.2 trillion in FY2009
US Challenger 2008 planned layoffs up 275%, most in 5 years
COMMENTS
Make clear today was ugly – reminiscent of the bad times of 2008. Scorecard shows the pain. The equity market reversed today and left the New Year rally in shambles with SPX down 3%, DJIA below the 8800 level, VIX over 43 again. The USD rally unwound and leaves the EUR back to where we started 2009 at 1.3640. Oil goes back down – off over $5 over 10% lower on the day – back to levels where OPEC decided to cut supply near $42. Bonds stand out – with the 30Y still 3 bps higher today at 3.03% – that is the one anomaly. Is this market noise or pure volatility or is there something else going on here? 2009 started with two stories – the first was a EUR negative event as Israel invaded Gaza and oil spiked, then Russia cut the NatGas supply to Ukraine. The second fed on the first – global reflation. The reflation theme that started 2009 drove on the view that the new Obama administration would spend whatever it takes $800 bn or more along with the FED keeping rates as near zero as possible along with a concerted effort to buy MBS and other spread targeting actions. This led to a number of favorite trades: 1) Selling US bonds; 2) buying Gold; 3) Buying commodities; 4) Buying cheap equities; 5) Selling the EUR. Today we have 1 and 5 and not 2, 3 or 4. The key question is what has changed. Russia is leaning on the EU to fix its dispute with the Ukraine so that hasn’t changed but today we did see a truce plan agreed upon with Israel and Palestine. Also we evidence that any reflation will take significant time – something investors are loathe to price – as the upcoming unemployment report for December is likely to show worse than the 550,000 non-farm payroll drop that GS forecasts. That twist came for the ADP report today – notoriously mistrusted and newly revamped – but perhaps its -693,000 level makes anything at 700,000 or more already priced today. Second the CBO prices in a real deficit over $1.2 trn already – making the Obama $800 bn plan harder to see financed. Third we have the 3Y auction – viewed as weakly subscribed and the supply drove price rather than any view of inflation. So we live today in 2009 but remember 2008 and the pain factor leaves the trading more a range game than a trending one. Day 5 of equities is tomorrow and the almanac watchers will wait it out before calling this another bear markets.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3583 1.3747 Close: 1.3616
USD/JPY 92.33 93.33 Close: 92.74
EUR/JPY 125.64 127.66 Close: 126.27
GBP/USD 1.4894 1.5283 Close: 1.5131
EUR/GBP 0.8960 0.9145 Close: 0.8999
USD/CHF 1.0870 1.1054 Close: 1.1026
EUR/CHF 1.4933 1.5040 Close: 1.5013
AUD/USD 0.7093 0.7270 Close: 0.7122
USD/CAD 1.1775 1.2003 Close: 1.1970
NZD/USD 0.5898 0.6035 Close: 0.5931