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06
Jan
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3:16am
I’m flying back to the US so there won’t be any intraday commentary today. But keep in mind that this market probably wants to consolidate further today, it’ll need to do that before it can run up again for a sustained rally.
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unemployment getting significantly worse where i live, North Carolina…crashed the online claims site 2 times on triple avg volume
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28522351
January 6th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Where in NC? I’m in Raleigh. The Triangle area has usually been able to handle downturns but it seems to be hitting here also. Unemployment rates much higher than usual. Still below the national average but increasing more on a percentage basis.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Greenville…things here had held up better than other places in the country…but starting to wonder if downturn is starting to pull down other areas that had held up…if so, unemployment for the overall country could continue…perhaps at a higher pace
January 6th, 2009 at 12:15 pm
unemployment does not include those who have given up looking for work which is ridiculous. many have been out of work for a year and those may end up on the give up list soon and thus keep the number in check while the economy worsens. the figure, as ugly as it is, makes things look better than things really are.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
does it include people who are part time trying to get by til a real job comes along? if so, its as phony a number as cpi
January 6th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
The unemployment number is so manipulated now it’s virtually useless. I saw somewhere last month that if unemployment was calculated the same today as it was 20 years ago it would be at 11% right now, not 6.7% And don’t even get me started on CPI…
January 6th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Here’s a place that calculates gov’t data the way it ought to be calculated:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
My favourite is the ‘hedonic adjustment’ provision in the CPI. Effectively, if you buy steak today for $4, ground beef for $2, and both double in price, the ‘basket’ simply replaces steak for ground beef. Net inflation under this new adjustment? ZERO.
Amazing.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Not a native but on the NC coast.
That makes 3 of us.
If we find 2 more Carolinians, we could form a basketball team.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
bet we could take UNC …ha ha
January 6th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
HAHA! I’m willing to try… die hard Duke fan here.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
I’m from Charlotte
January 6th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
WB and BAC despite their troubles not feeling too much impact. Housing prices still holding up well….down only 2-5% across the board year over year….
January 6th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
use to be commercial lender at bac…can’t believe they got in so deep on real estate….i guess lewis memories are short from his texas days
Shiller talking at MacWorld. Bloodpressue 110/70 (kidding). Nothing exciting. No Jobs cameo yet! AAPL drifting along SMA 20.
jumping in for more SRS here $53.65… sell order at $55 — range bound? still sitting on a large position for break to $60
January 6th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Just picked some up for 53.22.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Got in at 53.70 myself.
GS is cracking.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Getting back on the short wagon right here
The buying is so methodical it behaves like a massive buy program – on slow motion.
like a said this morning… if you are watching SPX just brew lots of coffee.. whomever wants this this thing above 935 is winning.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Me!
Oil fakeout break of neck line or real thing…
January 6th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
who knows. i covered my short during the right shoulder build and will get back in on failure of this move or hit of $50
Ready to pull trigger on AAPL 90 Puts. Need to get to @97 again. Close
January 6th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
jan or feb ? Jan put look tempting around 1.50
January 6th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Sorry. Was in a meeting. In at 1.50 Jan. Out at 2.00. Thank you AAPL for making my day. I would cover all now and wait for more later.
Interesting read
http://www.alternet.org/democracy/117562/the_end_of_the_financial_world_as_w
e_kAnow_it/
Crud, tightening spiral…I’m not hedged.
Bull/Bear ETFs are trading at 2/3 (volume) ratio. I don’t know if this means more people are expecting the market to go down (some would/could say that it is a contrary indicator)
January 6th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Hourly Index charts all have significant bearish divergences. The price “should” dump, and HARD.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Can’t be. Shanky’s already got that title.
Note: 30m chart. Strong negative divergence on RSI and Stochastics over last two days.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
the 2012 in your name does it refer to the event that is supposed to occur in 12/21/2012?
January 6th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
yeah but have to save that for another time. focused on trading right now.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Ah good, and the 10m charts are back to overbought on the STO, so a dive might be sustainable before EOD.
$SPX 50ma is (still) 931.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
FOMC trivia. The market move post-minutes will typically be in the opposite direction of the move post-meeting.
Schweizer and Co: This consolidation or topping/resistance? What is the consensus?
Any word from Woo lately? Woo where we at in the waves?
January 6th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
Consolidation gets my vote. Or maybe slow drip water torture.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Toppy and choppy. Can’t trade chop, so get on with the drop!
Itza comin’ though.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
bring it on!!!
why won’t she teeter over and “fall down and can’t get up”???
January 6th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Maybe this will go on long enough to make all the EWT freaks think “Wave 4″ is over and “Wave 5″ is about to carry the markets to new lows with one hop on the way for an inauguration rally, so their selling will be what provides the final impetus for the self-fulfilling prophecy, and all us bears get riiiiiiiiiiiiich as FAZ goes to 350 and SRS breaks 500.
I also think some “january effect” buying is holding the market up today as folks resume positions unwound in early Dec to take a loss. now with more than 30 days gone, it’s not a “wash sale,” when they re-buy. Also, a pile of IRA money will be hitting the market about now from the poor fools who actually believe the babble on CNBC about stocks being cheap, only they forgot to say how much cheaper they’ll get before TS is finished HTF about the time Obama gets crucified for what Bush and Clinton did. See? I’m impartial. I think ALL politicians are at fault.
oil , like this market, refuses to die intraday. it only dies overnight when i cant take my profits
so , Russia is playing hard ball and wisely so. if they cant sustain production at these prices i guess prices have to rise? but, is this not a Nat Gas dispute? whichever, the market for anything and everything seems mighty confused at this level.
Here’s a new trade just put on within the hour at Citibank.
USDJPY
We believe that a compelling bullish picture has developed here that suggests the potential to see USDJPY back over 100 again in the not too distant future.
As a consequence we are going long at 94.06 with a stop loss at 90.95 and a target of 100+
Weekly chart shows positive momentum divergence having held good trend line support in the 87.80 area.
DAILY CHART
Has broken trend line resistance and is now testing the 55 day moving average at 94.12. With a wide gap to the 200 day moving average at 102.52. A close above the 55-day moving average would suggest that USDJPY could be heading back over 100.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Guess that means oil needs to re-test the lows?
January 6th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
Not likely. They see stabilization in the equity market with a move toward 1040 in S+P.
I don’t agree with the stocks call. However just pull up a daily USD/JPY chart and you can see it has broken higher.
Good luck,
Pete
SRS give me that double bottom.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
where is the double bottom? my last entry was at $53 exit is $55.50 like yesterday. having my doubts.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Charts of SRS, FAZ and some of the other usual bear fund suspects look like the path of a flat rock skipping on the water, bouncing pretty much at the same level, but each bounce is shorter and lower. “Kenny’s List” sees a bullish descending flat-bottomed triangle, but says it has to break out upside pretty soon or shorts will hurt.
December 16th is the last day on which market was up on decent volume. See SPY volume as a proxy to market volume.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY
January 6th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Even today, SPY is trading at 70% of daily volume.
Bears have no juice. I really thought we would see some selling but just continued strength in semi’s, energy, real estate…just about everything but financials. No matter what the indicators, they have been ignored. The need for good news and the spin on an bad news is overpowering right now.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Bears don’t push the market lower. Bulls selling to other bulls (or some covering bears) push the markets lower.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
I know…just really impressed by the running of the bulls.
$SPX right at the uptrend line:
per Kenny:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2zxt9iv.png
January 6th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Thanks
Let’s all buy real estate stocks and hold them. I dare you, double dare you…hold them for a week or a month.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
Yeo fellas…. this price action is saying something… That stupid SRS keeps coming in while the reits rip. Look at the action in VNO. I dunno fellas being short means sitting through some more pain. Market tried to breakout we couldn’t do it, oil tried to break couldn’t do it. I hate to say it but this price action tells me we going higher. It sux cause I ain’t gonna buy anything up here and I’m waiting to get short even more but who knows how long this could last. Be careful fellas and don’t get stubborn!
January 6th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
im feeling the same way. im certainly not a buyer at these levels. im a buyer at around 600 or so at best. im getting fried and looking out 60-90 days maybe a horrible error. this is some strange action. gapping up on what today? the economy is falling to pieces faster than i could imagine and look at us. its not just hedge funds gating but all the bullish rhetoric has frozen those who want to sell and have them holding for a higher price it seems.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
Maybe the FOMC minutes need to hit so that they have something to blame.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:00 pm
True that about the REIT’s. HUGE moves in these stocks over the past 6 weeks. The action is extremely strong in about 80% of the SRS components.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Good post. I stepped back out of SRS and am sidelined waiting for some indication of where we go fom here. Richard et al- still holding your SRS?
January 6th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
ive increased my position in SRS and have a sell at $54.50 for a quantity. im not wanting it to move this minute. im willing to wait a few days to exit some at $54.50. the reits cant move in big ways at this level in my opinion. the charts show tem tops from what i can see. with this market , kind of feel like im gambling. stepped away from my computer for a bit and now see it at $51… it got down to $48 last week and quickly moved to $60. see what happens i guess. im not adding anymore today.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
feel like im playing a dangerous game
we all are. we have no idea whos money is pushing this higher and whether that money is going to exit the market or stay in for 10 years. i wouldnt invest my money for 10 years in this market but that is not to say no one would.
Not short yet on any new entries. Waiting on proper signals which are close. VIX is telling me time is soon. Kenny did label the falling wedge on the VIX with and ABCDE pattern that we may have a throwover on the E leg now. Hopefully yo cover the gap. Possible MACD and STO bull crosses deep in the negative territory on the 1yr VIX. Short term it is trending down. This market really has me spooked right now. Anything up is just stupid. Looks like the flag formed on the SPX, tried to fail and then came back together into a nice channel.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Trust the charts.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
the almost failed flag had me second guessing too. re-entered short at 934.
Bowtie breach.
Trendline breach.
Have I mentioned lately how annoyed I am? A rally is expected now and again, but come on, this one has absolutely no basis at all. New Year hope? New President hope? When things are running on “hope” you’re in a bad position. S&P earnings expectations are finally coming down, currently around $42 with even a 15 P/E would say S&P at 600. With a more realistic P/E of 10 we’re looking at the 400 range. At some point reality has to be recognized, no matter how tight you close your eyes, plug your ears screaming LA LA LA LA LA
I’m just impatient. I know we’ll eventually get there and between now and then we’ll likely see a rip roaring rally that will suck all the sheep in one last time…. as soon as the “2nd half of 2009 recovery” is realized to be way off.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:11 pm
you are aptly annoyed. it’s about as stupid as anything I’ve ever seen.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
That invisible hand is back in the market apparently, — not that I believe in that sort of thing.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
LALALALALALALALALALALLALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA
Did anybody get the bounce in PLD… THAT is what I wanna know…. I lost dumb loot tryna catch the bottom in that thing then never got back in. Missed it now look at it. 500%!! I’m so pissed I’ma buy puts
January 6th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
Something tells me you be able to tripple your money or more on PLD. You be able to get it on the way down now and then again on the way back up. Be patient.
While at lunch I was speaking to an older friend. This older friend’s brother is the Fed chief in Chicago. What was relayed to me is that the conversation between the two brothers over Xmas was scarry and sobering. Bottom line was that the first qtr is going to be scarry. Didn’t we have someone here at one time with another Fed relation in KC?
I think everyone is scared to sell if that makes sence.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Interesting.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Shanky,
Keep going to lunch with OLD friends like that at get back with some more specific stocks tips. We will pay for your lunch. Promise.
Link to Kenny’s chart (S135 posted a link to static chart earlier). You can refresh the page to see it’s action live.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3095409&cmd=shows154284185&disp=P
January 6th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Oops. Got the wrong link. Selection S&P 15 min Candle sticks from the chart book.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
If we can crack the black trenedline on the PPO I’ll bet the house on the short side. Till then the rally is intact.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…… Look at these damn spys…. fellas what’s the good word
The race is over. The rats won.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
Explain.
Now that is a bottoming candle on SRS…;)
January 6th, 2009 at 2:27 pm
ok, hope your right because im in deep and didnt get anymore under $52.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
1.5 hours left and its above daily volume. big volume on the drops and rises these days. there is no clear direction in anything it seems.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Me too…jumped back in.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
i bought more here at $50.70…. this is insane. the amount of cash ive loaded up in this SRS is starting to freak me out
thought i wasnt buying any more but i feel like i have to at this level
Someone remind me that price action pays and nothing else matters. Daily please. Because not thinking about anything other then price action would really allow me to be a better trader and get out of this fundamental crap.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Lot of frustration posts the last 2 days.
That’s a good sign.
The cow is about out of milk.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
That would be true in a normal market. But this isn’t a normal market. We basically have the Fed buying every falling asset in the world right now.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
You know, I used to work in sportsbetting, wrote NFL-related stuff. I’d study stats and data and injuries for hours and hours trying to find that one piece of info the books didn’t know about. Eventually, after watching enough 10+ point dogs win outright, I started to get that there is no information available to me that is not also available to someone else; someone smarter, sharper, and with more money to move the line.
Once I accepted that all the information out there was reflected in the price, I started winning on a consistent basis. The key to prifit is to get the best price by timing the market. Not much more to it than that.
I only watch the news for sh*ts and giggles anymore.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Agree but hard to time the market….what’s your trick/strategy
Anyone make $ on the falling AAPL? I got in the 90puts at 1.50. Had to go to a meeting and stopped out at 2.00. (high was 2.52). Ah well.
Pimco’s on CNBC pimping for the fed.
Fed minutes kicked the latest spurt of buy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090106/fed_minutes.html
January 6th, 2009 at 2:39 pm
Oh, I forgot…. the Feds were very BULLISH!!!!!!
Despite the aggressive action, “the economic outlook would remain weak for a time and the downside risks to economic activity would be substantial,” according to the Fed document.
In fact, Fed officials expected the economy would “contract sharply” in the final three months of 2008 and in “early 2009,” the document said. Some participants suggested “the distinct possibility of a prolonged contraction, although that was not judged to be the most likely outcome.”
January 6th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
The same FED that didn’t see a recession coming, and when it came it was just going to be a mild one of 1-2 quarters. OK … right.
OK – we’ve got very a very overbought situation. Indicators on the longer charts near term are not signaling a turn and remain climbing to nose bleed levels. Here is what I am afraid of – the sell off we are all expecting will be quick and swift – not prolonged – before the continued move up. Any thought on this?
January 6th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
There will be a Bearish Black swan event, as the technicals aren’t enough to trigger a turn.
The moves in the REIT’s are just stunning. At some point, they will have a blow off top. 50-75% moves since Dec 29 sure deserve a pullback. But then I guess that depends on who is buying…
January 6th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
You know that answer. The Fed.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
two for one…props up the reits and bails out the mid teir banks who have loans to them
January 6th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Of course I knew that answer….
950 seems to be getting made here. This is a key spot for the rest of the picture of wave 4. If we fall down later on the week, it will mean there is a triangle in formation, otherwise we are having a zig zag. Timewise, I still expect rally time left. Price wise triangle falls down towards 850 or so before another rally upto 930 region. Zig Zag wise, bears are going to be a lot of pain since we may easily visit 1008. Ofcourse before that 975 is a key region to watch.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Most I read are favoring the ZIG – Zag. From what I am seeing looking thru all the charts is the next pullback will be minor (5%ish) then the near term trend continues up to complete leg C. I would really prefer the triangle pattern to get this overwith quicker and get the pain out of the way. Please let us get into the 5th wave down sooner than later. It is out there. It has to happen. The sooner the better.
FAZ at new low.
January 6th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
coule be from MS is up 10% compare to GS only up 1.5%. I guess today is MS turn to get the glory.
And the flare of the day has occured… Down to 92.71 on the SPY.
Checkout the option pain for the financials. If that is an indicator of anything.
BAC – 20
C – 12.5
GS – 100
JPM -37.5
MS – 30
I think it is in William O’Neil’s book I read -
There is no such thing as greed driving the markets higher. The predominant emotion that drives the market higher or lower is fear.
The fear of further drop in prices will make people sell, at times causing panics.
The fear of missing out on gains will make people buy aggressively to push prices higher.
Chit… SRS is below 50 again. Decision time (for me).
January 6th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
nuts eh! makes you think just maybe the space is not going to crap in a hurry. bought more at $50 and change. im not buying anymore. ive got a boat load now and ill play wait and see for the rest of the week.
Is the $VIX saying that the only thing that is volatile is the $VIX?
January 6th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
pretty good sized move up in the last few minutes
SPX 60m still in bull mode and very overbought, but gave us a new pos divergence that we can use to get the sell signal we’ll need.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Positive divergence, POS divergence – whatever!
PLG lease announcement today is the reason for the surge… it has to be. in a world where we think all business is going to hell… an announcement of a lease of this magnitude is going to move the reits.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
SPG up 6.6% is unbelievable…just a casino.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
yesterday i made out good in SRS and said it defied all logic going against the market trading flat. and today it is outpacing the SP in pure madness. its like a frenzy of buying in commercial REITS. its not just the states either . D.UN… take a look at the chart on this REIT in Canada on the TSX. however, it seems t o now have topped out. of course im probably wrong
this is not good for the market. A lot of people will get burned on the way back down. And, the fact that there was no healthy pullback means this thing has little room to run.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Mutual fund managers putting those 401K dollars to work! (right at a top).
January 6th, 2009 at 3:27 pm
smart huh?
January 6th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
I’m thinking about going all in short when the PPO cracks on Kenny’s 15 min SPX chart. Thoughts? Do you see any other indicators that would say otherwise?
$SPX 50ma/10 is 932.73.
One more time Irene.
Just stunning action in the REIT’s
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=1482659,39&cmd=show,IDAYN&disp=f
January 6th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
What’s the symbol as the link ain’t workin (and I have a subscription).
January 6th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
It’s a candleglance of 80 commercial REITS. Not sure why it is not coming up as it works over here.
Over the past month, the market has changed, to wit:
1. Intraday moves have lessened. Volatility has contracted. Look at the VIX chart.
2. It is beginning to trend. The trend is higher. Look at the SPX chart
3. The move is broad, if not volume based. Look at the A/D list
4. More individual charts are bullish than bearish. Check the daily charts at stockcharts.com
5. Money leaving “safe assets” Check Libor, TED spread, USD/JPY and 3 month T bill.
Lower volatility, trending, broad bullish tape, rotation out of safe assets. Those factors seem bullish, and if they continue will draw further money into the market.
What are the bearish factors over the past several months?
1. Volatility while lessened, is still elevated from historical levels
2. While the market trends higher, volume has been light, and the averages are coming into long term resistance around 960-80. Markets remain below their 50 and 200 week moving averages
3. While broad, the move lacks volume and may simply be allocation of 401k, IRA, pension monies at the beginning of the year. Small caps usually benefit disproportionately, and that may mask the AD strength.
4. Bullish set ups are there, but again volume is lacking
5. Safe assets are losing their vogue, but still remain elevated historically. Evidence of success of re-flation and economic improvement are scant.
Whats the play?
1. Good trading discipline at all times. Good plans, good entries, right size, right stop loss and post mortem analysis.
2. Buy Long term puts given contracting VIX. Check the June/Sept SPY puts. Good bargain for insurance. Scale into them. I have. If the market crashes or retests the bottom in the next quarter or 2, those puts will appreciate nicely.
3. Look for good intra day set ups. Earnings season is right around the corner. Those are not one day events. Money can be made AFTER earnings are disclosed and the stock moves for several days.
4. Run a balanced book. Have some long exposure in the right sectors (tech, commodity, materials, consumer disc) This balances against the longer term puts in the portfolio.
5. Be prepared. The Boy Scout Motto is apt. Have a market outlook, but be prepared to objectively analyze incoming information. If a position is moving against you, cut it. If it is moving in your favor, add to it. Always challenge your own beliefs and seek out contrary information. The market is tough enough, without seeking out good information and altering our plans based upon changed circumstances.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
No thanks:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-50s
January 6th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I know.
You believe the SP is headed to 332 (8 * 42 is actually 336). I understand, but disagree. The evidence is not all bearish, but that is what makes a market I guess. You really can’t short, if someone doesn’t agree to buy, right?
In the meantime I will trade the market we have, with proper trading rules. Money made being short or long is still money made. Regardless of how incongruous it may be to reality.
Good luck to all.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Excellent summary and good reminders…
January 6th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Thanks for the post Brian! I missed alot of this move up. Everyone is so bearish and convinced and I didn’t pull the trigger. Someone else posted that price is the only thing that pays and I have to remember that. The market has been confusing for me and I am kicking myself for being stubborn and not seeing this recent move.
How much further do u see it going?
January 6th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
1050 to 1100 by March.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
I do not believe this, simply because the S&P is now repeatedly spiking and being resisted by a nearly horizontal narrowed upper BB, which in the past has led to a significant decline.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2348194%3ABlogPost%3A11012&page=1#comment-2348194_Comment_11034
Next support for APPL 91.10 (old resistence). No confirmation we’re going there today.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Did you mean AAPL or are you actually talking about Appell Pete?
AAPL My bad
Moving averages about to be gutted.
January 6th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
and with one more bottom call for SRS…triple bottom?
January 6th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
im getting nervous
January 6th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
my oil play is good but its small. need srs to hold 50
January 6th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
White towel…retreat. Hunker in the bunker time.