3:16am
I’m flying back to the US so there won’t be any intraday commentary today. But keep in mind that this market probably wants to consolidate further today, it’ll need to do that before it can run up again for a sustained rally.
Intraday Commentary ~ 01/06/2009
– January 6, 2009Posted in: Intraday Commentary
Todays $SPX 10m chart to Start:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A10952
Thank you
This market is really in my head right now. I saw the double top from Friday to Monday on the spx (934 and 936) and couldn’t bring myself to short at 936 in case it was a breakout. Then it went down and I couldn’t bring myself to go long at 920 which I thought would be good support. Both would have been good intraday trades that i saw clearly (which is rare!) and I did not take a position all day.
Watch this and you’ll feel better:
http://social.stocktock.com/video/avoid-getting-chopped-up
Good luck.
went to bed feeling good about my oil trade short as it broke $48 and wake up to $50 oil..interesting. the talking heads are saying oil moving higher caused market weakness yesterday? so its strength today will cause market strength? will those faces ever make any sense? what is moving oil up today – any news – other than hope for economic recovery?
Money Talk LIVE 8am-9am Today:
http://east.streamguys.com/dcradio700_live
Good TA and EWT analysis.
Who says buy and hold is dead? Buy an oil, steel or bulker in late December and you can close shop for 2009. Straight up action. Buy and hold is back! (Even if it is just 2 weeks.)
Anyone seeing the gap at the open (assuming futures don’t drop) as a good quick short play with the gap fill? Feel like we’ve seen gap fills pretty consistently lately (knock on wood)
I’m gonna take a short the market and gap approach today.
Where is Gr, did he not get the message vacation is over?
—————
Breakout or Breakdown??
Yesterday:
The trading action appeared to stall after the retracement of the breakout. Prices did not run quickly into the target range suggesting a need to take out sellers and gain support for another move. It did appear that prices seemed to hang near the break out point.
Today:
It is my contention that if the market is going to break it will occur today. It does seem that prices are overextended and overbought so I will be looking for a corrective move to take place today. If prices break the 920 range we could see a move to the 900 range and that would be good for the bears. The NASDQ also looks overbought and ready to make a corrective move. I do see some possible selling taking place today and it is important that prices maintain strength in here because of the breakout. That is a negative if prices become weak and break through the support line or break down to far (showing excessive selling pressure) when traders should be buying the break or covering.
Support / Resistance:
945-947 2nd resistance
930-932 1st resistance
918-920 1st support
907-909 2nd support
Notes:
Watch for a potential change in trend or corrective move to take place today. This is and important day for the confirmation of the breakout because in theory prices should be gaining strength after a short time after a breakout.
Gannfann
Likely a quick backtest of the 10m uptrend line and then the drop. Paint a black candle for the day. A close under 918 will put a fork in it for now. We shall see!
I’m in cash right now. Would like to pick up faz at open. What would the best short? FAZ SRS SKF SDS QID? What are you playing?
With the gap, I plan to wait to see where it then heads. I don’t like to trade at the open.
Richard man I’m in the same boat baby…. I’m gonna add to my position one time that’s it. It doesn’t matter what stock you’re in can’t afford to be bearish right now. Any commodity stock I mean mosaic had kinda blah earnings last night gapped down and now look at em they’re right back up. Who knows where this market can go or how high oil will bounce without a pullback so we’ll see. Off the open Richard I’ma double up but that’s it if it goes wrong I’m out
i was up early.. saw the market was going to gap and went back to bed bcs im afraid of myself
new day.. same old crap.
Big psych day for AAPL. Schiller delivers keynote at MacWorld Noon Eastern. Expect bump up then sell the news this afternoon? AAPL closed above the MA 50 and is up to 96 pre-market. Waiting and watching.
Waiting and watching to go long AAPL or the markets or short?
Bearish bias. Likely play some put action again later today.
Prob retest the 96.40 day high then we’ll see
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Flag this messageGS LONDON MORNING ROUNDUP – Tuesday, January 6, 2009Tuesday, January 6, 2009 4:42 AM
From: “GS MACRO SALES” View contact detailsTo: undisclosed-recipients
LONDON MORNING ROUNDUP – Tuesday, January 6, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
WSJ:: German Leaders Agree to $69 Billion Stimulus.
Telegraph:: Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse
FT:: Jim O’Neill: Why it would be wrong to write off the BRICs.
UK December PMI Services 40.2 – higher than expected.
UK December Nat’wide House prices sa -2.5% m/m and -15.9% y/y – lower than expected.
SUMMARY
Market has again remained bullish this morning with Asian equities bid across the board a theme which continued into the London morning, CAC up 1.14%, DAX up 1.35% while S&P future up 0.75%….. EUR continued its weakening path against a backdrop of broad USD weakness, we have moved 5 big figures since the 1.39 opening level yesterday and it seems hard to find anything to stop this downward slide until we get down to 1.3250 and then the 50 DMA at 1.3145. Flow wise this morning we have seen a good demand from Japanese names to sell the EUR vs the JPY while real money have predominantly sold vs the USD, EUR is currently trading 1.3390 down 1.41% on the day. Elsewhere we have bought a good chunk of AUDUSD for leveraged and prop accounts and have bought a good bit of USDJPY on the NY open for macro accounts. UK PMI came out better than expected at 40.1 versus a consensus of 39.0 putting more pressure on EURGBP…. We on the desk like EURGBP lower, and have looked at EURput vs SEK/NOK/GBP ‘worst of’ options which give significant savings against the vanillas. In vol space this morning we saw good buying interest in USDJPY high strikes all along the curve, keeping vols basically unchanged. 1mth 97.60′s was paid at 16.5, 1yr 100′s at 11.75. We also saw buying interest in 10yr yen, which was paid at 12.2 today. The curve is correcting higher on the back of the recent reverse in US rates. Similarly in Aussie, the mid dates in particular were very well bid, and there was decent buying interest in the broker market. This afternoon we have US factory orders, pending home sales and ISM Non-manufacturing survey before that all important FOMC minutes this evening at 7pm. Good luck.
CURRENCIES
EUR/USD 1.3331 – 1.3659 Last: 1.3346
USD/JPY 92.85 – 94.23 Last: 94.18
EUR/JPY 125.45 – 127.39 Last: 125.69
GBP/USD 1.4554 – 1.4735 Last: 1.4597
EUR/GBP 0.91016 – 0.92996 Last: 0.9144
USD/CHF 1.1074 – 1.1246 Last: 1.1235
EUR/CHF 1.4977 – 1.5146 Last: 1.4994
AUD/USD 0.7034 – 0.7175 Last: 0.7113
USD/CAD 1.1850 – 1.2001 Last: 1.1904
NZD/USD 0.5813 – 0.5907 Last: 0.5869
Hovering at 937. I’m watching again. Too messy. MA’s are a playground.
$SPC uptrend line backtest – COMPLETE.
$SPX – sorry.
yup. I c a fall to 920 again.
Oscar in sync with my thoughts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPvDQUbOMlw
Sch…I concur and I’m going to plan accordingly.
Yeah I jumped on some of that.
Back in the rally channel up?
No – still under it but riding up from the underside at the moment.
Do any of you gurus use the Fibo-Gann retracement tool intraday?
Cmon, no gap fill, first hour super rally? I don’t get this.
Retail volume. The pros aren’t buying.
They are doing a good job of killing the vix
You didn’t get the memo that the market doesn’t go down any more ?
SRS, SKF aren’t making new lows. Financials and REIT’s aren’t leading us to water. Drought coming.
bearish view continues…A. Gary Shilling 2009 predicitions…he’s been pretty accurate so far…calling S+P ~600
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/153382/Gary-Shilling's-2009-Predictions-More-of-the-Same-Pain?tickers=%5Egspc,%5Edji,%5Edia,spy,qqq
$SPX R1 is 944.57
This might be it. 10am.
Needless to say this has been my worst trade of ’09
=]
I just went shopping.
Bought:
- FAZ (now full position)
- SSO Feb 27 puts (rationale – SPY and SSO above upper BB for the third day)
- VLO Feb 24 puts (rationale: oil overbought, stock extremely overbought, closed above upper BB yesterday, gapped higher today, last time similar action happened in VLO was on June 2nd and 3rd when it quickly gave 20% in the following 3 days)
In SRS at $54.
im back in for more today too.
FWIW, Connie Brown has 980-989 target for up move then 680 on decline.
We don’t trust opinons, we trust the charts. ™
That’s my opinon.
Agreed. Take it with a grain of salt.
Pebs, I’ve seen Connie Brown’s name come up before. Is she a pay service or a blog, or what? Thanks for posting her thoughts.
She is a paid service – provides daily newsletters, but big bucks.
We are so out of the BB today…it screams for a major correction, but don’t want to get burned like the pre-election week.
Short from 940
wow nice short
I added to mine at 938
Bought AAPL 90 puts 1.54
$SPX bearish cross on the 10m STO – so we have a ways to fall.
Bowtie at 930.
Per Oscar: “PROFIT OBJECTIVE =THE MID TO LOW 900.00(s)(BELOW THE TEENS).”
That’s between the Fibs:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-1hr-after-open-jan-6
Not likely to hit today but some say it will settle in there and we will have another push higher before the 5th Primary leg down. Others think this is the 5th, and still others think we are still in the third.
Hi Schweizer,
What’s your anticipated target for SRS or do you just let the chart stop you out?
We are in an uptrend and I have my stop just under the 50ma/10m and higher than my entry.
thanks for the info
im looking for $60 range again. 5 day chart double top area. half of my position comes off there and then wait and see.
Nice cup and handle forming on C; maybe my Call 10s will have some value! (100% short apart from this.)
I adding to this bear flag.
About time Mr Invincible started selling off. 50% retracement at 94.60 was resistance.
Yup. Here we go
Nice red candles on the 10m. Took half profits at 1.67 on the 90 put. 9% gain. More opportunity to come
Ok, game on…gap filled and we’ll see who has the money.
Dancing on the bowtie, but when it cracks – good night Irene.
adding short OIL at $49 on the kick back. $50 is such heavy resistance and i can see it breaking that easily.
Lovely (for bears) long shadows forming on daily candles so far. $DJUSRE (real estate) is now red and back below 20-day MA. XLF (financials) has dropped back below 50-day MA. $SPX now is showing the ugliest red candle (%) since before Xmas and is back below upper BB and extended H&S neckline (or upwedge base line if you prefer) and fell over 1% in 30 min.
ugliest red HOURLY candle I mean. Still up a bit for today.
Thanks for the scouting report Crawford. Much appreciated.
Picked up 10 pts on that last drop.
Knew I should have shorted ESLR after a family member was put on the night shift…down 6% on sector weakness.
That may be considered insider information. Careful.
Serious? He isn’t management or anything special….I guess I did have the plant closing information before the press release…
Anyone know what the official rules are for family info?
Proving insider trading is very difficult. They would have to show that you INTENED to act on specific non-public information that would affect a share price. A family member working the night shift would not be something that would affect a share price. And, this information is not non-public.
Thanks, I traded on more serious info previously. Heck, my 2000 shares are hardly affecting a 2 million volume stock.
Appreciated the comments.
Just keep your mouth shut regarding any information. That is the best rule. You can not get in any trouble that way. I was just kidding above. But now I know that you are related to one of my favorite equities. You are gonna be RICH, RICH, RICH when solar eventually takes hold.
We’ll see…I’m betting solar is a substantial part of the Obama Stimulus…Gov. Patrick loves ESLR and he’s got a good relationship with Obama…protective loans, gov’t contracts (especially now that Gov. Richardson and his New Mexico solar co.’s are in the doghouse).
MS screaming higher
so is GS… broke $91
Good morning folks. Nice to see FCX & GS still having a nice tailwind. Most of the charts I watch are on the latter sides of their rallies. There is probably another 1-2% to go, before a decent 5-10% consolidation/correction.
There are others which are only getting money in today, like advertising. I am long LAMR from 15.2. accordingly. My target on this is about 17.3. Lets see how it goes.
SPX could go all the way to 975 or so, before facing any real resistance for what its worth. So until timing triggers develop on the SPY, I am not looking to short aggressively, other than the customary 25 point OTM SPY puts.
Thanks – Nice LAMR entry.
oil down $2 in last hour.
to lead this market lower? energy has really pushed this market up despite what the talking heads say. $50 oil is actually good for the market. a steady slide will pull the market down.
A parade of topping candles:
Dojis, shooting stars, bearish engulfing, black reversing …..
Glad they all showed up!
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY,$spx
definitely more sellers than buyers today
That is such great stuff, Tom. Thanks. I really need to set that presentation up for myself here. You pay for the service, right?
Only with a subscription, but adding |a to that will get charts with 2 days of 15-min candles. Those shooting stars and such look especially bloody that way:
http://stockcharts.com/scripts/php/candleglance.php?XLF,XLK,XLI,XLB,XLE,XLP,XLV,XLU,XLY,$spx|a
schweizer, great video you posted by snp500trader.
Have you been to his chat room?
No. Has he been to ours?
I have. Don’t care for it.
I watched a few of his videos before. He keeps pushing his service (which should be OK). To me, he also sounded a bit presumptuous and full of himself. I would take all that if his track record is impeccable. There is no evidence of that. So, I stopped watching his videos.
break in 5 day uptrend pattern of TOL. stop check and go at ever $0.50. surge and fail today. this is a good sign for holders of SRS? where do you find the components of SRS?
Mostly REIT (commercial RE), and they are in trouble along with the regional banks that have loaned them construction $.
SRS shorts the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ($DJUSRE)
http://www.proshares.com/funds/srs.html
thanks, you take profits at $56? just running back to $54 now.
$SPX bowtie break is $929.84.
Below is the daly pivot at 921.96,
then the 918 price support (rather solid).
Selling Real-estate related (DDR CBG) longs. Looking for a nice drop today.
Treasuries alert:
When treasuries gets sold, usually the money moves to riskier assets, a la stocks.
Treasuries are getting sold today. (TLT down 2% and TBT up 3% at the last check). Stocks are still up but pulled back significantly from day’s highs.
You could call this ‘stocks are weak, despite money moving out of treasuries.’ One of the many possible explanations – though early to say – includes, “somebody is selling US short.”
If this trend (in treasuries and stocks) continues stocks will be in deep chit.
Oops. I got the % moves in TBT and TLT wrong (2% up and 1.5% down)
yes, all the hopes are pinned a never ending supply of extremely cheap borrowings from overseas….someday, this too shall end…a watershed moment in history
AAPL breaking back thru support. Another bump up then man the lifeboats after Noon?
Selling to close at 1.77. 12% win overall. Most fun I’ve had in weeks.
$VIX just came back by about 5% in a little over an hour and is now GREEN
This is Barron’s cover story, could mean that time to buy treasuries:
BARRON’S COVER
Get Out Now!
By ANDREW BARY | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The bubble in Treasuries looks ready to pop, sending prices on government debt sharply lower. But just about every other corner of the bond market beckons — and could provide competitive returns with stocks, even if the equity markets have a strong 2009. (Video)
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123094029415750267.html
SRS acting odd right now compared to what it has been doing recently. It is down 2% when the market is flat.
Schweizer, did you get stopped out?
Not yet – I keep raising it and have it just below the 10m BB.
nothing to worry about there. it has fallen to $51 and pushed to $60 in no time. im adding on any weakness below $53 if i should be so lucky.
key: dont use stops with SRS… hops around too much
Got stopped out of SRS..
Guys,
Don’t go after the 2x proshares. They are scam. If you see the matching pairs (skf & uyg, srs & ure etc.) over a period of time, you will see they are both significantly down. There is a big catch on how they get affected by volatility.
Moreover don’t go short with srs/other construction cos. as Obama’s “fortune” plans are going to help those companies most. Instead you will have much better luck with retailers, financials (maybe), services and general indices.
Good luck!
Mrin
Yes, they all are going to zero (by design) eventually, but are great for day trades or short swing trades.
Priced in. Sell the news. Congress will delay the bill anyways.
you are assuming OBAMA gets what he wants and 2. it gets implemented in a timely fashion (government stalls) 3. it shows benefits beyond the decline in business these companies will see by the time it hits the books. if these companies see a decline of 15% in the top line and obama gives them a 5% boost… wont matter.
I’ve heard this from everyone buy my mom now. Sorry, I’m doing great with them. Sorry you’re not. Thanks for the warning though. I’ll file it with all the other warnings I get from people on the wrong side of the trade.
What a battle happening in the commercial real estate sector right now (IYR, DJUSRE). Their are so many calling for the implosion for this area but these indexes continue to hold up well. The bears cannot get a hold of this market right now. If the bears can’t push this clearly into the red by 2pm, we can easily run back to the highs today.
all this “free money” is being put to work? what is the USD$ really worth if it is printed, handed out, and pumped into markets?
Richard,
Here is the pro shares prospectus:
http://media.proshares.com/documents/ProSharesProspectus.pdf
The SRS does NOT short the DJUSRE, that is simply an index of component stocks that is the target index for the SRS.
The SRS objective is to provide results ON A DAILY BASIS that is 200% the inverse of the target index. SRS primarily invests in swaps and derivative contracts, and other financial instruments. The prospectus is pretty clear about the funds objectives, structure, and risks.
For what it is worth, the DJUSRE index is found at the Dow Jones website, and they have a list of the 83 companies that make up the index. Simon Property Group (SPG) is weighted 7% of the index. Public Storage (PSA) is another 5% of the index. Put those 2 stocks on your trading screen and you have a general idea where the DJUSRE is at. You can also pull up the IYR which is an ETF that tracks DJUSRE from the long side.
The levered ETF’s are good day trading vehicles, nothing more. For longer term swing or position trading, they are the most inefficient and risky securities to implement a trading plan, long or short. I would not be surprised if the new SEC looks at them with a suspicious eye in 2009.
yes, the biggest risk is not the underlying assets failing but the regulators shutting them down. the goal of this market seems to scare the shorts out and keep the longs fearful and basically eliminate all participants except buy and hold funds. that is the feeling i get longer term. will see how this all plays out. the SEC has its hands full to try and eliminate all trading that puts downward pressure and tries to fairly price this market. if they do, i guess ill be permabull buying over-priced equities and i’ll be throwing up every morning.
thanks for the info
SPG is going to get crushed, IMO. Bad debt, bad PE, bad holdings.
Best Buy coming into Best Sell zone. Yesterday one analyst discovered that Circuit City is going bankrupt and it is good for BBY. Circuit City filed for Ch 11 in November.
He must get the timer of the year award.
lol… really. he better be careful bcs that is insider trading
that is next weeks news.
Mohan;
What is going on with PCLN..jeez.
I am ready to buy some puts but this thing is up $3.5 today..
Don’t remind me about PCLN – I am still licking my wounds.
The biggest lesson I (re)learned from PCLN trade is this: when the market comes off its lows, buy any chit and it will float.
Seriously, PCLN has a “breakout” at 70 and 75 recently. I guess it is supposed to go up as per the TA rules (mainly because it is going up). I was looking at their earnings warnings etc etc and scratching my head. But, take a look at the chart – there is a silver lining if you want to short now – it closed above upper BB for two days and it is currently trading above that. A short-term pullback may be in order.
Same goes for COF. I am short and hurt
I have some retailers and hotel chains as short-still in red.
oil may be putting in a reverse h&s on the 1minute..watching closely
Failed break of neckline? watching closely….
$SPX bowtie at $930.48.
Perhaps a bear flag.
bear flag works, or, an b-leg of an abc zigzag down. i think we’re still looking at an expanded flat starting Jan 5.
How many days can the bulls push the SPY past the BB? Seems day 3 without a substantial correction would crash them…?!
The words “Them” and “They” get used a lot across the finance and investing/trading boards. Different people infer different meanings. I believe that you mean investors and traders.
I used to scoff at conspiracy theories. Now I believe in some and I definitely believe that the markets are manipulated.
My point is, what if “Them”, the bulls as you use the word, aren’t really bulls but GS or MS or C or whoever buying on behalf of the Fed. or some other agency? In that case, wouldn’t the trading theory and rules (not the charts, necessarily) be invalidated? In other words, while investor behavior should be observable and repetitive, what if there is a new and previously unobserved market participant buying without regard to outcome (i.e., not trading with their own or their clients’ money)?
Thanks, just meant the price action. Up and down…they is us and we are them.
I’m neither bull or bear…just a trader.
i believe there was a concerted effort to buy (prop up the market) at the beginning of the depression as well by some key participants…eventually it ….well you know the rest of the story
do we all remember the day where the market fell 600 points and closed up 200 points? i’ll never forget the day that we faced the abyss and then the average joe at home didnt get any of the story. all they got was the message that the market closed up 200. they are trying thier best to hide the true picture from the sheeple. until that day i did not believe in conspiracy theories. that day made me a strong strong believer. they are turning the oven on broil right now and trying to crisp the shorts.
rant alert….
i always worried we’d lose our 2nd amendment rights to firearms first…but i think we have given up the 1st amendment without a fight…what are the major networks now…free? Do we ever see mass media taking a dangerous stand anymore….reporting anything more than the the “good times -sheep food-mass denial” …. i’m not sure if the media is a slave to gov’t or just ratings (via desire for bigger paychecks at the expense of real reporting)…no i’m not in the media business
my conspiracy beliefs are put into doubt many times though. look at D.UN on the Toronto exchange. this is Canadian commercial real estate fund and it has rallied 50% from its lows. is the fed behind that? many stocks do look cheap to the average investor. it may be years before the pain is really truly felt for some of these cash rich reits. in the meantime people can make out with a 15% yield so long as they hold up for another year. this is risky but may be incentive enough to take the chance for some.
GS hitting Lows of the day