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06
Jan
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3:16am
I’m flying back to the US so there won’t be any intraday commentary today. But keep in mind that this market probably wants to consolidate further today, it’ll need to do that before it can run up again for a sustained rally.
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Mr Bull was looking around at a table full of bears wondering “what’s for dinner?” Surprise!
It’s you Toro!
any bet we hold 930
I’m as skeptical of the “flares” as anyone, but pull up a 2 day chart on the SPY. There was a big upward flare yesterday morning and that’s about where we hit this morning. And the flare today just before 3:00 looks like it may come to fruition as well. I know, I know, take it for what it’s worth. Just pointing it out.
Six of the seven hourly $SPX candles today have been pairs where it punches thru the upper BB in one hour and falls back the next. Same thing happened yesterday. 30-min chart also shows six crossings and re-crossings of upper BB. Looks very toppish to me, but who can tell any more?
January 6th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
These are intraday crossings of the DAILY BB 20,2 = hourly BB 140,2. None of your wimpy hourly 20,2 BB’s.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
I noticed that too.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
Charts at
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2348194%3ABlogPost%3A11012&page=1#comment-2348194_Comment_11034
Look at the bright side- our parents and friend’s 401k’s are doing better
SPX 30m giving sell signals on indicators.
SRS = S+M
January 6th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
?
January 6th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Sado-Masochism
Love to short FAS. Intraday volitility even kills this ones gains. UYG (2x bull) and FAS (3x bull) comparison on the day shows FAS lost over 1% of gains…
I should short now, but will not swing it. I think tomorrow is the day we head south for at least a little bit. I’ll wait for confirmation. Sellers are smart and being patient and will go in for a small dump soon. If we can get panic selling to happen that would be GREAT!
Huge volume spike in the last 10 seconds? Anybody else see that on the SPY in particular?
Its a sign of how crazy this market is when Leh and Wamu from the pinksheets are up 80% today
January 6th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
which is a whole 3.6 odd some cents btw
TOM [formerly known as tom()],
Wow. What a great picks you have in commercial real estate – CBG and DDR. They are up over 15 and 35% today.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
I sold, rebought and sold it again at the end of the day. I would have done better just holding it all day. Sold KEG too – not proforming well enough and will fall on a sell off. I only have TC and GGP right now. Feeling lonely.
THE MARKET HAS TO CORRECT very soon. Looking to buy these again on a dip. Still bummed about TBT. I did not pull the trigger when I was talking about it at the 36. Blew that opportunity, big time.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:33 pm
Don’t kick yourself. As I said, it is very unusual for the Treasuries to make such big moves in short order [OK, you can kick me!
]. 17% in 4 trading days (even for ultra short on treasuries] is not only unprecedented, it is unhealthy for the market.
As I said in yesterday’s post, one would assume all that money is going to put into stock market. I think the market has to at least correct first – but the market is acting (relative to recent days) weak with last 20 min sell-off for the last two days.
I still think that this move in treasuries is indicating some big moves in stocks ahead.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
BTW, I will buy GGP as a hedge against SRS. May be tomorrow.
January 6th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
If today wasn’t a short term top in the REIT’s, I don’t know what is.
SPX closed a point below upper BB.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55030556115
If we don’t see a pull-back for the next two days, I have to believe that neither fundamentals nor technicals are controlling this market.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
This has happened before — building a H&S top prior to a major decline. Charts & more discussion:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2348194%3ABlogPost%3A11012&page=1#comment-2348194_Comment_11034
Fxp might be good for 15% during a pullback.
NY ROUNDUP – Tuesday, January 6, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US November factory orders drop 4.6% – much worse than expected
US Service ISM in December 40.6 from 37.3 – better than expected
US NAR pending home sales drop 4% – weaker than expected
December 15-16 FOMC minutes: Some debate over range vs explicit level for Fed Funds rate
COMMENTS
Markets delivered another up day for equities – with technology leading – S&P500 ends up 0.8%, NASDAQ up 1.5%. Interesting point about equities is that the e-mini S&P500 contract has been up 8 days consecutively. Bonds saw another choppy day – with better TIPS auction leading to a small rally – but the majority of the day was about curve plays and profit taking and corporate debt issuance. Tomorrow 3Y $30 bn may be the driver as supply kinks the front-end. Commodities saw another up day and many pointed to the flip of gold to be critical part of making sense in a day where “risk-on” trades seemed to dominate. FX saw the USD reverse course like gold – even as the EUR remained weak against many crosses. So the debate rages over whether its USD gains or EUR weakness that matters. The USD lost from 1.33 to 1.3530 today – flipping with the weaker US data and accelerating with the FOMC minutes. It’s not a surprise as you mix the market moves that a reflation theme dominated – with commodities bid, TIPS seeing a good demand, and market in New York net convinced that the FOMC will do whatever it takes to reflate the economy. The overall look and feel for 2009 remains one of mixed signals – with correlations flipping – leading to new trading themes: 1) Value and volatility. Many have jumped on the EUR/GBP and EUR/NOK trades. The drop in overall volatility has led to a longer term PPP look for FX value. But with the VIX in 30s (38.5% today) – a level that many previously argued was a breaking trigger for overdone – maybe we are in for a new level of noise and illiquidity. EUR 1M volatility at 24% used to be viewed as unacceptably high – impossible to trade. But today many see the EUR as an opportunity – we have defined the range 1.33-1.3640 – with risk of a rebound overnight given the reflation theme. 2) Recession vs. Reflation. The overall data today was clear – manufacturing continues to be in a significant slump even as services showed some stability. FED reaction to economy remains one dominated by fear of a deeper slowdown making them happy to promise longer term low rates as a solution. The reflation theme revolves around the FOMC December 16th decision. 3) Bad headlines, good price action – faith in stimulus and FED? Much has been made of the list of negative headlines – just consider today’s from Lyondell US unit bankruptcy to Alcoa 15% job cuts to IBM warning of job cuts to horrible pending home sales drop and weak factory orders. The point is that the economic data is dreadful and the government promises staggering. Mix in the rest of the world and you get the point – the market wants to believe in the future. There is no real mixed signal here – just a straightforward hope that the present course and promised action will work.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3312 1.3535 Close: 1.3522
USD/JPY 93.67 94.65 Close: 94.03
EUR/JPY 125.18 127.15 Close: 127.15
GBP/USD 1.4503 1.4993 Close: 1.4939
EUR/GBP 0.9023 0.9221 Close: 0.9051
USD/CHF 1.1140 1.1280 Close: 1.1167
EUR/CHF 1.4975 1.5122 Close: 1.5100
AUD/USD 0.7100 0.7268 Close: 0.7251
USD/CAD 1.1761 1.1925 Close: 1.1797
NZD/USD 0.5858 0.5990 Close: 0.5985
I’ve got a 20 & 40 sma up on the spx. Look at the mid July low and the late Nov low, we have the same price action happening now as we did before it cracked in October.
Mid July low, then the 20/40 bull crossover roughly a month later, then the mid Sep 20/40 bear cross, and then October happened.
It looks exactly the same but this time the move appears to be more exaggerated.
January 6th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
It was spiking the upper BB in Aug just as has been happening lately. See charts and more discussion at
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2348194%3ABlogPost%3A11012&page=1#comment-2348194_Comment_11034