1:41pm
Market could be topping out here, and forming head and shoulders. I go to go for today, but be very weary to the upside here.
12:50pm
We’re looking at a potential bull flag, as we are hitting the ascending support line and the 20 SMA at 92.80$, a break will yeild a move down to 92.50 (50 SMA).
12:19 pm
Strong push higher with stronger volume, next resistance (assuming we break the 93.30, is 94$.
11:57am
I’m playing very tight stops here to the upside, and got stopped out at a small loss of 0.05%. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market bounces when it hits the ascending support (i might take an SSO there), that’s at 92. 55$
11:50am
Move higher on low volume, if we break the 20 SMA again i’ll look to cover.
11:24am
Took a small position of SSO, with a stop under 92.40$ on the SPY (which is the ascending support that we’ve had for about 3 days on the 10 minute SPY).
11:05am
Market hit a double top on the SPY, we are consolidating on light volume downwards in a bull flag formation. I’ll look to add an SSO position around the 20 SMA sitting at 92.76$.
10:13am
Didn’t have enough time to take my position… those that did, i would look to sell at the 20 SMA sitting at 92.60. I don’t want to chase this move, we have to let the market decide where it wants to go first.
9:53am
Market trending downwards on respectable volume, we broke the 10 minute SPY 20 SMA, and will be looking for support at the 50 SMA at 91.69$ and ascending. 92$ could also be small support, which might coincide with 10 am reversal. I’ll be buying SSO on the dip to the 50 SMA.
3:31am
First of all, it feels extremely weird writing the date up as 09 and not 08. Happy New Year to everyone, and I hope we start off on the right foot this year. It looks like we will have a very nice rally in the upcoming 2-6 weeks (maybe end around inauguration) . We are now definitely in Wave 4 of our 5 wave move lower. And it looks like we’ll be starting wave 4 (2) which is defined by a small pull back soon. The fact that we confirmed a break above channel resistance friday on stronger volume allows us to be certain that the last 2 month’s trend is broken, and that we will be looking at newer highs to come for a certain period of time. Volume will be important to look at in this rally, since so far it has been light. I will be gone most of the day today, and tomorrow I will be flying back to the US, so hopefully Craig or someone can take over.
Looks like SPX is headed up out of the sym triangle. Took out 934 and gave a backtest on the 1m chart. It still has not completed the backtest of the major trendline. Looks like it may have a way to go if it is going to complete the test (and If I have my line drawn right). This is insane. Greed will bite everyone in the ass one more time.
I think it’s a false breakout. We’ll get a pullback IMO.
This one way action is getting pretty boring…I’m starting to think that stocks can do no wrong. I never anticipated nor was prepared for such a methodical 10% grind higher.
interesting. and now look at oil after fake out hs breakdown. trading above $48
Oil has no business being above $35. Middle east tensions are the only reason. Some of the countries that require iol at $50 to $80+ per barrel are gonna start imploding soon.
why doesn’t it have any business above $35?
Lets see if SPX uses 933 as support.
CRACK!
we need a break 925 to show any significant sell pressure. yawn. looks like an easy target.
SPX broke 3min up trend support line. Down we go??
break those small caps in the knees
with a ball peen hammer
$SPX 50ma/10m is 928.15 – GONE!
Put a tail thru it, but all indicators confirm sell. I am waiting on the 30m to confirm.
So Richard….good call with your early entry into SRS.
so far so good. but im still stuck short oil at $46. however, my SRS is an overwhelming position compared to my oil position. im making gains. tx.
you see our CAD$ .. up a couple of pennies. will we ever get to par again? if more wars break out and oil climbs. but im not wishing for that so i can go shopping in the states.
Consolidating around the daily VWAP which sits at 926. Let’s see which way it goes. My wave count has it going down for a while – at least to 918.
Looks like a 3 wave correction down to 918. a= 10 points from 934, b ended at 928, if c=a then should go to 918.
and now we wait some more. im coming back in an hour.
shorting oil here at $48.50 for move lower to the close bear flag on 1min
JPM at lows
JPM at new lows.
Relative volume on bear funds is running at 1.4-1.7 range; Rel volume on SPY, SSO, etc is running at 0.5-0.7 range. Means that more money is going into short funds than long funds.
Can’t say that market will go down just based on this.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy,sso,ssd,xlf,uyg,xlf,fas,faz&ta=1&p=d
Correction. JPM at day’s lows
30d 30m SPX confirmed sell and took out 20ma. I’m in SDS.
Your contrarian indicator has spoken!
OH and SPX has broken below it’s upward channel. Will wait on back test to add more. Target is 895 which is 50% retracement.
Just wasn’t the same without ya around Shanky. We didn’t know which way to trade without our contrarian indicator around. Good to have you back.
Glad to know that you are annoyed again! Would not be the same.
$SPX 50ma/10m backtested as well as VWAP.
Now get on with the show.
Looks like it’s on.
T2012 – you expect another leg up?
markets selling off?
Anyone think we’re getting back to normal with a 3:30 massive volume move?
Shanky – what’s your $VIXometer tellin’ ya?
Tom are you short?
I’m about 5′ 11″
You should not have asked – it is oversold as hell, but not ready to break out yet. The only remaining question is does it want to go fill the gap left down at 34.74? 36.88 was top of gap resistance. There is a gap above at 71ish. 60 is 50% retracement – WOW! This is the 3rd green candle in the past 12 days. 60m MCAD and SS are about to give buy signals – very close.
Bottom line is we are not there yet, but close. Maybe we fill the lower gap or test it again befor moving up. resistance at 42.50. Possibly two trendlines intersecting by the time we get there. this leads me to believe this will be a zig-zag move in the market before further bigtime weakness occurs. The spike up this AM has me a little confused on how to read the indicators. To include the spike or not has me miffed a little.
You asked…..
Cool – thanks!
Yeo Richard I got long the DTO at 110. Hopefully if this markets starts pulling back we can get a nice gap down tomorrow. Who knows though Richard I was long oil I got a sick move off it took it off at 35.50 USO but that thing kept going. Buyers didn’t care what price they bought it they jus wanted in hopefully that died down a lil. Overall though wouldn’t you rather be long oil??
aapl-ometer finally dropping.
when the qqqq is under 30.80 I’ll go short
I bet the Bulls buy into this drop in about 20-25 minutes. 920 looks like the next support.
my money says oil moves lower overnight. as for the spx…. im not making any more bets on it for the next 90 days. OIL and SRS and a few other equities 100% short just like a permabear should be.
I’m with you, Richard. Bought into HOD.TO at $16.09.
I’ll add to the VIX analysis – Were in a massive falling wedge going back to 11/21, but we have not had enough touches to make anywhere near an ending formation or wave count. We have an A,B,C touch, but D came up short on 12/29 and we are back at the bottome of the wedge. If, buy rule, D can come up short we have had E and will break out. If not, we still need a D touch of the top trendline whaic looks like it will be around 42. I’m guessing by the end of the week we’ll be on the way up.
My wave count expected 3 waves down starting at 934. The first wave a down ended at 918.46. I think b up ended at 925.50. If c=a then this correction will end at 910. If c=a*1.68 then the correction will end at 900. After that it’s off to the races up.
That is what I’m thinking. I’ll close shorts at that level regardless of w/l and get long to SPX 1,000. The larger wave 4 is coming to an end. We (I) got faked out at the last top. The good news it that wave 5 will come eventually, so we can get this bad boy headed in the right direction.
Yeah, I’m hoping it hits 900 – went short at 903 last Wed. thinking the technicals were with me for a drop at least to 860 or so. Totally took me by surprise when it went to 934. Now if I can get out unscathed I’ll go long to 1000 or maybe even 1060.
S!#% – I mean S135 – the VIX is not confirming the sell signals we are getting and about to get. You think we might get whipsawed?
It hasn’t been as reliable lately.
Yeah the market should have broke but they just wouldn’t let it sell off. Strong res I guess.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/sp-autopsy
for 10 years this market has gone nowhere even if we get to 1200… what is the point of buying into this mess? what is the 10 year VWMA? you have to feel terrible for people who averaged in to this market over the past 10years in an index fund or something. are they still buying this bs?
As long as the pumpers keep showing up on CNBC saying “this is the greatest buying opportunity of a lifetime, these are BARGAIN prices…” Yes, they’ll keep buying into the bs. The next big leg down is going to ruin a lot of retirement plans.
Lots of “financial planners” (English translation: mutual fund salesmen) are also telling folks to just sit tight (because the “planner” loses commissions if they bail out) or increase their positions. They don’t even give free Vaseline with that advice.
It is a buying opportunity for long term. Consider that the players with the big money are the long term players. Many valuations are very low right now. Which stocks are overvalued right now….???
Banks?…They have a net below them.
Real-estate? – much has been priced in.
Energy? Looks like buy right now.
Retail? The big stocks have been crushed!
IMO who actually wants to “own” equities now? Baby boomers feel they don’t have enough time left to recoup their losses. Losta cash on the sidelines that’s not going back in. The GenY’s I know trade/swing ETF’s. GenXers through their depleted and shrinking 401K’s? I’m 58 btw.
I seach for stocks that have less than .25 debt ratio, lower than 8 PE, over 1M shares traded each day, and under $5/share(can not be shorted under $5.00). Then I research the best ones and time the buy at the crossovers. That is my buy strategy for longer term stocks.
Otherwise, I gamble with some hot leads!!!
Guys can’t make any money going short if we don’t let the market go up.That is just more coin in your pocket
well i exited some of my SRS at $55.51 so made $$ going short. 6% from my avg in. feels like we are range bound here. how many days off this will we get? anybody’s guess.
TNA vs. TZA
3x bull vs 3x bear russell 2000
Both opened on Nov. 19.
Since that time TNA is up roughly 20% and TZA is down roughly 50%. Are they supposed to be closer to inverse 1:1? Would this be an arbitrage play? Why is it so skewed?
Time decay…
The leverage is figured DAILY, so there is no basis to suppose that the bear ETF will have a longer-term cumulative move equal to the negative of its bull counterpart. I have tested tons of data, and the DAILY leverage factor holds pretty well, but CUMULATIVE leverage is a different story.
Also, remember that it takes a 100% rise to recover a 50% drop.
thanks!!
This is not about TNA/TZA but it is about FAZ/FAS, close enough:
http://j2eewebprogrammer.blogspot.com/2008/12/investing-in-fazfas.html
thanks again…
don’t like these short etf’s one bit
NY ROUNDUP – Monday, January 5, 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
US auto sales drop 36% in 2008 – better than feared
US President Elect Obama: Expects “sobering” unemployment number
US November construction spending drop 0.6% – better than expected
COMMENTS
The 2009 trading year has started with a notable confusion. The bang of buying equities, selling bonds, selling USD and buying commodities reversed somewhat today – indicating that trees don’t always grow to the sky especially in a jungle. The arguments for money being put to work January 2 and changing January 5th don’t mix well with too much cash and too much pessimism. We remain in a jungle of correlations conundrums raining down on the risk appetites of the rational investor. 1) Equities did better than many expected today – as they managed to look at the real data releases and find some hope that construction spending wasn’t as bad as feared thanks to the non-residential growth. 4Q GDP may be better than the 6% feared and priced because of this report. Throw in that auto sales were better than feared thanks to the discounting and down 36% y/y seems like a win. Equities seem to be content in a massive sector rotation. Not a shock that energy won out today with oil up 2% while utilities suffered as bonds cratered again. The dispersion over volatility trade will be something that makes the jungle thick with trading confusion. 2) Bonds didn’t like supply. The news that the US Treasury intends to sell $30 bn in 3Y and reopen a 10Y for $16 bn led to another 20 bps pain trade in the 30Y. The move in rates is the biggest in 15 years. Supply of $2 trillion this year before the real spending of the Obama $800 bn stimulus spooks many to think about rates requiring a premium. Throw in the Barron’s article and you get a market that believes in a bubble pop. 3) The real bubble is cash? What seems clear to anyone chasing yields and returns in 2009 is that safe havens are confusing. Look at 1M rates – sub 5 bps. The opportunity cost of staying in cash isn’t yet high enough to convince the world to rush to other trades. Deflation vs. efforts at reflation continue to hangover the USD. The FX market voted for more deflation today – as the EUR gave back all its December gains breaking the key 1.3840 support and the 1.3620 100 day moving average. We close below both and open up a test of 1.32-1.35 zone. The demand for EUR into year end may be one of the funding stories of the 2008 credit crunch. What happens in 2009 will be about confusing correlations with value. The GS Research call today for trade number 8 – short EUR against a basket of NOK, SEK, GBP – made money today. Even more was found in the short USD/CAD and long AUD positions – both of which have been tactically discussed by the GS team as well. The mixture of EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD in describing a world concerned about value and reflation leaves commodity linked currencies in a special place so far in 2009. Stay tuned as we have plenty of news yet to come this week with BOE, US employment and global Service PMIs – all likely to test the theory that we have already repriced a recovery before we know the depths of this great recession.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3546 1.3697 Close: 1.3604
USD/JPY 92.85 93.58 Close: 93.17
EUR/JPY 126.38 127.57 Close: 126.75
GBP/USD 1.4475 1.4740 Close: 1.4725
EUR/GBP 0.9231 0.9420 Close: 0.9239
USD/CHF 1.1000 1.1117 Close: 1.1084
EUR/CHF 1.4997 1.5087 Close: 1.5078
AUD/USD 0.7062 0.7183 Close: 0.7151
USD/CAD 1.1867 1.2179 Close: 1.1892
NZD/USD 0.5808 0.5918 Close: 0.5897