|
05
Jan
|
|
1:41pm
Market could be topping out here, and forming head and shoulders. I go to go for today, but be very weary to the upside here.
12:50pm
We’re looking at a potential bull flag, as we are hitting the ascending support line and the 20 SMA at 92.80$, a break will yeild a move down to 92.50 (50 SMA).
12:19 pm
Strong push higher with stronger volume, next resistance (assuming we break the 93.30, is 94$.
11:57am
I’m playing very tight stops here to the upside, and got stopped out at a small loss of 0.05%. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market bounces when it hits the ascending support (i might take an SSO there), that’s at 92. 55$
11:50am
Move higher on low volume, if we break the 20 SMA again i’ll look to cover.
11:24am
Took a small position of SSO, with a stop under 92.40$ on the SPY (which is the ascending support that we’ve had for about 3 days on the 10 minute SPY).
11:05am
Market hit a double top on the SPY, we are consolidating on light volume downwards in a bull flag formation. I’ll look to add an SSO position around the 20 SMA sitting at 92.76$.
10:13am
Didn’t have enough time to take my position… those that did, i would look to sell at the 20 SMA sitting at 92.60. I don’t want to chase this move, we have to let the market decide where it wants to go first.
9:53am
Market trending downwards on respectable volume, we broke the 10 minute SPY 20 SMA, and will be looking for support at the 50 SMA at 91.69$ and ascending. 92$ could also be small support, which might coincide with 10 am reversal. I’ll be buying SSO on the dip to the 50 SMA.
3:31am
First of all, it feels extremely weird writing the date up as 09 and not 08. Happy New Year to everyone, and I hope we start off on the right foot this year. It looks like we will have a very nice rally in the upcoming 2-6 weeks (maybe end around inauguration) . We are now definitely in Wave 4 of our 5 wave move lower. And it looks like we’ll be starting wave 4 (2) which is defined by a small pull back soon. The fact that we confirmed a break above channel resistance friday on stronger volume allows us to be certain that the last 2 month’s trend is broken, and that we will be looking at newer highs to come for a certain period of time. Volume will be important to look at in this rally, since so far it has been light. I will be gone most of the day today, and tomorrow I will be flying back to the US, so hopefully Craig or someone can take over.
Good morning folks, market very strong. My pullback area is still 935 – 950 and we expect the pullback to continue for the rest of the week starting tomorrow. Until then Go FCX! Go GS!
Morning everyone!!!
Wish everybody a great trading day and Year!!
LONDON MORNING ROUNDUP – Monday, January 5, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
Times:: Oligarch’s chemical group calls in rescue expert.
WSJ:: Merkel’s Stimulus Plans Await Tax-Cut Decision.
Eni Pipeline damaged by attackers in Southern Nigeria
Switzerland December SVME-Purchasing Managers Index 36.9 – higher than expected.
UK December PMI Construction 29.3 – lower than expected.
SUMMARY
We opened up 2009 on a positive note with Asian stocks rallying across the board and recording the longest consecutive daily gain since 2004!! MSCI Asia-Pacific +1.3% (up 5.6% in last 8 days): NKY +2.07%; Kospi +1.4% while the Hang Seng rallied +1.4%… In FX cross-JPY was very much bid on the back of this risk rally with USDJPY up 1..86% and AUDJPY up 2.7%. The EUR traded heavy EUR continued the Asian session sell off with a collapse from 1.3920 to 1.3680 on the back of leveraged stop less selling. In vol space long dated USDJPY vol has sold off overnight in Asia and again this morning with 5yr been given at 11.25 while the 1yr is trading 14.75…… There has been a great deal of interest to buy EUR vol, especially the downside where leveraged names are looking to put on EUR ‘worst of’ put options against GBP, SEK and NOK….. EURGBP vol is the highest it has been this year with 3mth trading 22% offered and 6mth 20.8%. This morning brought PMI prints out of Europe, with UK PMI construction disappointed to the downside at 29.3 versus a consensus of 30.5 while Swiss manufacturing PMI rose to 36.9 for December versus an expected print of 35.8 and although this was a slight uptick it is hard to get excited when the levels are still so low. This afternoon we have US Motor vehicle sales and construction spending. Good luck
CURRENCIES
EUR/USD 1.3656 – 1.3963 Last: 1.3674
USD/JPY 91.81 – 93.40 Last: 93.24
EUR/JPY 126.59 – 128.56 Last: 127.49
GBP/USD 1.4432 – 1.4580 Last: 1.4536
EUR/GBP 0.93875 – 0.96336 Last: 0.9407
USD/CHF 1.0707 – 1.1038 Last: 1.1018
EUR/CHF 1.4931 – 1.5089 Last: 1.5065
AUD/USD 0.7063 – 0.7168 Last: 0.7098
USD/CAD 1.2047 – 1.2225 Last: 1.2152
NZD/USD 0.5806 – 0.5919 Last: 0.5833
Question…with MACD now at/above 0 on major indices, doesn’t this portend a bearish move? (asked the amateur) Last that happened was early September. We know what followed.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:18 am
Nope not necessarily. The MACD portrays bullish moves if it comes out of oversold and into positive territory. It portrays bullish moves until it stays overbought (above the the 80% mark of the chart) for a long time. As soon as it falls away from that 80% market back down, you should be expecting a potential move lower.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:18 am
There is bearish divergence on the daily Histogram spanning from the November peak, so you are likely right, the indexes should turn down, but nothing is for sure as we’ve seen!
Alright people, time to get back into the swing of things!!! The holidays are over! Get your lazy butts out of bed and start talking!
Happy New Year everyone.
$SPX intraday 10m chart:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/spx-for-monday-jan-5-start
SKF is reaching buy zone here. I’ll post a chart.
The Steve Jobs APPL health bs is fascinating. While the Average Joe Retail investor loves AAPL, 68% is held be institutions. Thus, it’s worth following and trading. Up 2.50 in pre-market trading (down from high). Strong R at 95. But 91 (previous R) looks like support now. Hope this is helpful. If not, tell me to shut up.
January 5th, 2009 at 9:44 am
So much for the theory that it’s all priced in and the market is rational. AAPL is up $3.60 on Jobs hormones.
What a game!
January 5th, 2009 at 9:51 am
What does R mean?
January 5th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Resistance
January 5th, 2009 at 9:57 am
R is Resistance. S is support. I guess.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:25 am
Nibbling some Jan AAPL puts. Day trade only. New rumor is Jobs will make a cameo at MacWorld tomorrow.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:51 am
3 failures at $95. Down we go?
January 5th, 2009 at 11:56 am
10 week MA holding
Daily lows – transports, financials, Ford, Small caps ….
January 5th, 2009 at 9:40 am
$SPX lost the 20ma/10m which has been first level support for 3 day. Selling is pretty heavy so far. Watch for a trendline breach (see my chart a few posts back).
bought DDR – might be the next PLD…..my guess
January 5th, 2009 at 10:11 am
Nice call so far.
I put patterns and TA first but FWIW, lunar cycles show that historically we are down from now until 85%: http://stardate.org/nightsky/moon/
January 5th, 2009 at 9:50 am
which is around the 21st
Posted by Gannfann on January 05, 2009 at 07:27 AM
…Price should continue a rally and its move to around the 947 range where we could see some resistance. Prices could have a slight pull back from the break out of 918-920 range, so look for prices to hold that and bounce from there. Prices should hold the break out range but if it fails prices should move to the old support range of 900-902. This would be a signal that the break out may lack some momentum because this break out should be gaining strength here. If prices hold the support at 918-920 we should see a continuation of the up trend that should last for some time. Keep in mind this is still a counter trend and weakness will eventually step in but that will take time.
We are trading above the 50dma and have breakout of the 920 range so we should see the move range the 1000 range.
Support / Resistance:
955-957 2nd resistance
944-946 1st resistance
918-920 1st support
907-909 2nd support Notes:
Keep in mind that prices are making a counter move that will take some time to run its course. The primary trend is down but the current trend is clearly up and how things trade through here will help determine the commitment of this break out. It is important to understand that this move could make many out there believe there troubles are over but the bear trend will resume again, so keep that in mind using trailing stops.
Gannfann
We are at the $SPX uptrend line and at the 919 breakout/support price. Will it hold – ?
Took half my spy options off for a profit. Still holding BGZ.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:13 am
covering my spx short and swapping for more srs – undiversifying
best long position in oil and oil services for the further run up? it appears from the oil chart this morning that big boys are back and involved speculating the price. nice orderly climb up. this is just a hunch from this chart as i watch it everyday. it has not climbed in this clean of a pattern for a while. suddenly political tension is the excuse for higher oil prices again. for some time nothing mattered in the world. nothing could push it higher. im in SRS as oil going up is bad for SRS and im going to nibble on some CAX and GPX, both small cap canadian oils. disclosure: im short oil from $46 on Friday….bailing on this position on the pull back.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:27 am
I layered into SLB earlier at the pullback.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:33 am
are you still holding strong the SRS? im piling into it.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:47 am
No on holdng SRS. I rarely hold anything overnight these days and never thru a weekend – too risky for this blood. Am watching SRS..tempting later in the day if the rally doeas not hold (which it likely will).
January 5th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
in the past i did not hold overnight as the fed had so many false weapons but to me, they have run out of bullets and the market is getting very tired. bailouts and interest rate cuts are exhausted. im no longer afraid to hold overnight except oil positions. political tensions could really move oil.
Got back into FAZ some.
SPY closed the opening gap.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:41 am
saw that. but looks like it’s going higher
I would not be surprised if we have already seen the low of the day.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:52 am
yep, almost perfectly timed. hit just under 920 and bam… better than expected construction spending. so well orchestrated. that really did feel like the low.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:53 am
I am not sure about it Tom. Jan 2 and today technicals of SPY looks identical to Aug 9, 10. Like yesterday, on Aug 9th SPY closed above the upper BB, which seems to be a very rare event. S&P was down the next day (Aug 10), drifted slightly lower for 2-3 weeks and then crapped.
RSI, MACD etc for the dates I mentioned are almost identical.
I expect a noticeable pullback at the close.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Yes, in the last 5-3 minutes….it seems to be like clockwork. I’ve got my EOD plan. FYI: bought a little GGP at $1.31 this morning….what the heck.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Sure thing.
GGP is an interesting play. May be this board should consider buying GGP as a hedge against SRS.
GGP is almost certain to file for bankruptcy. But big guys are betting on the stock to go UP after the bankruptcy. Kind of twisted logic, but makes sense. Check out the news.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Yep. That is why I bought. 3x is very possible with little downside risk.
By the way, below you mentioned layoffs as a blow to confidence. I don’t think so. Investors (stock buyers) want to see the company making strong moves to become profitable. I see layoffs as a plus for stocks. I worry more about companies like Cisco that are holding on to their people (although very nice of them!).
Good for stock, bad for economy…same old story.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:49 am
im not hedging my SRS with anything. im just going to go nuts with it. im thinking of just going all in and folding all of my positions. have to sleep on it. but it just feels right to me.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:43 am
I posted charts with the same formations than Mohan is seeing:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/somewhere-under-the-rainbow-1
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/if-you-liked-the-fall-follies
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/all-you-need-to-see-to-be
companies are eerily silent these days and all we are going on is government data. who here trusts government data? nice kick on the better than expected construction data and now are we going to get better than expected vehicle sales too? is it really possible they can turn this economy around throwing government funds at it? all i know is that construction spending continues to contract and has been for years and will continue to for more. unless of course they give every renter $100,000 to buy a house in Stimuls2 the sequel.
January 5th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Exactly. Who truly believes the gov’t can pull us out of a recession by itself by throwing cash at it? It sounds good at first, but then it’s realized that it can’t be done. And how about the new tax credit proposed of $500 per individual that will come in the form of bigger paychecks for a couple of months? This will have less of an impact than the $300 checks we received last year. If you get an extra $40 a week in your paycheck for 3 months how much will you stimulate the economy? The answer is “very little if any” because that extra $40 will be used to pay bills that people are having trouble paying already.
Double top and drop? – and where’s all the VOLUME?
This tells me the pros ain’t buyin’.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:00 am
any positions yet schweizer? I’m thinking about reentering faz.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:18 am
I’m waiting to see if this is a double top or a bull flag.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Hi Schweizer,
The buy volume that I’m seeing so far on stochcharts on the SPY seems decent, but that is my interpretation. Just wondering what you use to gauge intraday volume as I still don’t have a good way for myself.
Cheers!
January 5th, 2009 at 11:14 am
SPY has an ave daily volume of 429M (per Yahoo) and we are on track for about half of that today.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:58 am
Thanks for the info
January 5th, 2009 at 11:12 am
Could be a double top. Not sure yet.
M$ rumored to lay off 17% of workforce…that’s a lot of unemployment checks. Stimulate that.
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=09/01/05/157243
January 5th, 2009 at 11:12 am
I saw that the other day. Most of the layoffs are to be at MSN.
More than anything, MSFT (of all) laying off that many people will be a big blow to the confidence.
Look at Gold, Short some GLD
Schweizer/Uner,
I think this will be the first test to your Bullish percent/CPC indicator. I have a hunch that this market is cooked – at least a 5% pull back (to 850) is very likely.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:17 am
I added more FAZ.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:21 am
i have re-entered
January 5th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Yes, being that it only fires a hard SELL signal every 7 months, it seems unlikely that a continued push higher for Wave 4 is defendable.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:28 am
I probably should have added to my short up there but I didn’t. Still have half my position on so will see what happens.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:47 am
Mohan, I was also agreeing above with your post about $SPX spiking the upper BB – seldom a good sign. Look at blue circles on this chart:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/somewhere-under-the-rainbow-1
January 5th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Great chart. Thanks Uner.
S135- you say we are at 1/2 SPY ADV- isn’t the first Mon after the New Year week traditionally a strong volumn day?
January 5th, 2009 at 11:32 am
A quick glance at 2006/07/08 – the first Monday has average SPY volume, but not half. If the uptrend line busts, and the 919 $SPX support line, we may get the volume.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:37 am
thanks much.
Big green flare on the SPY up to 94.55. See if it means anything.
gold and GDX got whacked today but copper is strong–see FCX. may have bottomed?
posible ma patern forming
Idan,
Do you feel that this market can continue going higher without any correction at all ? Do you feel comfortable buying in this extreme overbought conditions ?
January 5th, 2009 at 11:48 am
I don’t but then the market never has cared about my comfort level.
January 5th, 2009 at 11:55 am
I think this market needs a correction, but the correction will probably be a few single %, and will constitute 4(2), before a stronger move higher.
In the really short term (intraday) i’m playing a move higher, due to consolidation patterns, but that’s only intraday.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
I’m not playing “really short term” cause I haven’t got it sussed yet. But I agree with your first statement.
CBOE Put/Call just about where it was at the August highs.
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/cboe_eqpcr.aspx
oils orderly move higher has become a jumbled mess on t he 1min chart but still looks bullish on the 10min. im not going long anything right now. 100% short with no hedge. mixed messages at this point.
To the TA gurus/nerds.
Take a look at JP Morgan daily chart. The stock just dipped below 30 and indicators are showing a possible bounce. The contrarian that I am, why is the derivatives king JPM acting so weak in the first place – that too in relatively calm and/or up market. [Which is to say that I am expecting, regardless of the indicators, JPM is about to take a nose-dive]
Did market miss the memo that JPM is a “strong bank?”
I would like to know your take. Thanks.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
4th hit of the downchannel trendline and under the 50ma with a ton of overhead supply but with a TARP undeneath. Find something else cleaner.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
I am not shorting JPM. I am looking at it as a leading indicator. Rumors are floating around about JPM since mid Dec. But nothing really happened. A continued weakness in JPM is something the market cannot ignore.
The $INDU, $RUT and XLF have lost their uptrend lines.
Bank index ($BKX) too.
Hello there. This market is screwed up. Good commentary today. Tough call on the double top in SPX. Still in the uptrend channel that began 12/29. The drop earlier today tested the bottom channel line nicely.
SPX has almost come back to backtest the prevailing trendline it broke under on 12/22. Depending on how accurate my line is the test may have already occurred earlier today. On the 60d 60m SPX the 50ma is crossing the 100ma and the 20 ma is separated waaaay above the 50 and 100. These must narrow or correct, thus it must drop soon. The BB is fat as heck as well ranging from 945 at the top to 880 at the bottom. That is quite a spread. SPX has been riding the top line of the BB for several days now.
I’m guessing we’re still in bad news is good news mode. Everyone knows the auro reports are gonna be awful, but we’re bailing out the industry so who cares. The jobs report is gonna be awful, but who cares. The Big O is coming to office and all is well.
I’m thiinking we zig-zag into the innauguration, we get to extreme overbought levels and then the bottom falls out.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
agree, watching this could make one go mental. im fully loaded and convicted so im just checking in once and a while. have to take a rest from watching the daily action. having a business degree is a detriment here. looking at SHLD trade at 20x earnings with retail going bust makes me want to throw up. im 75% in SRS which is behaving itself. so im able to stay calm
maybe the republicans pull thier money out after O gets in and starts screwing things up? make him look bad lol…like it’s his fault. im just making a 90 day bet on SRS as who the hell knows what happens over the next 20… one thing. i couldn’t walk away from this computer if i was long anything but a short etf.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
note: market volume low…. SRS volume double on Friday and looks the same today. has traded 75% of daily volume in 3 hours.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
REITS are TOAST so SRS should rocket.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Welcome back, stranger!
January 5th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Thanks. Nice to be back. Let’s kick this thing in the ASS!
January 5th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
Perhaps a triple top but it looks like a buy pogram just kicked in.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
This is actually a double top.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Triple if you count Friday.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Where the h— have you been? About time you got your ski-bum self back to work!
Wien wants S&P to gain 35% this year.
——————————-
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — Byron Wien, the investment strategist who predicted a recession would drive U.S. stocks lower last year, says the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rebound 33 percent in 2009 as the economy recovers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajQbVN8S5Ep4
January 5th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
wow. alot of bullish analysts. maybe we have one more chance to hold this together? can we rebound one more time before the depression hits. move the cycle back another 2 years to 2012? its getting very interesting as i thought wed have a real nasty time back in 2006 but they re-ignited the bubble. can they re-ignite it one more time? im doubtful but seems alot of bullish people think they can. one more kick at the can. maybe a depression is not so imminent but certainly seems inevitable. this feels like the end game but can they suprise us all?
January 5th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Some cynical investors use the percentage of bullish analysts as a contrarian indicator. It seems to work pretty well.
Why would somebody who knows anything about where stocks are headed fight a Manhattan or Chicago commute twice a day to spend eight or more hours getting Dilberted at the office? Wouldn’t such people be retired early and spending a few minutes a day managing their own rather juicy portfolios when not thinking up new and exciting ways to spend time enjoying the proceeds?
Warren Buffett once said that Wall Street was a place where people arrive in chaufferred Rolls-Royces to get advice from people who took the subway.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
Who pays these people?
S&P earnings are forecast to be $42 in 2009 (at best!), and with a Bear Market low PE of 8 then expect the SP500 to trade at $332, not $1250 as he predicts. Amazing.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
is it possible that we are simply wrong. is it possible they can squeeze two more bullish years out of this extended cycle with all this fed pumping and interest rates tanking. im not a believer now. buy just maybe they will make us believers in 6 months. it will be one amazing feat. however, should they pull this off. they may be forced to leave interest rates low for years and eventually people who are unemployed will simply run out of savings and then what?
January 5th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Mohan, this 75 yr old genius also said the SP would decline 10% in 2008. he also gives his prediction a 50% chance of coming true LOL> i say the market goes down in the next 90 days and im giving that a 50% chance of being right
maybe i should be on Bloomberg. why did they bother to publish this shit?
Bearish crosses on the 60m charts for RSI, STO, MACD on the $INDU and Small Caps.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
picked up more SRS at $53.20. out of my SPX short all together.
January 5th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Still have half my short position. Gonna watch and wait
I’m back in the saddle full time now. I worry about this market extending to the 950 range then we only get the pull back to test the 918 level (obviously I have entered shorts below that) then we rally to 1,000. There is not much to stop it under 918. Either way, we’ve got to get volatility back to make us all happy. I’ll have to place a large play to get some of my short $$ back. Should not be a problem.
All of the talk about the potential/necessary lowering of rates in Europe may be giving us a layup in a play on the USD/EUR. I’d appreciate some help on how to play the $ strengthening vs. EUR.
TBT took off and I missed a nice 10%+ run in it while not paying attention over the holiday, but I have faith that it will be back to the $35 level by the end of the month.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
I would say short gold but I think that horse may have left the barn
January 5th, 2009 at 2:09 pm
“Either way, we’ve got to get volatility back to make us all happy.”
———
I think your wish is coming true:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/vixbullflag010509-1
If SPX goes positive again, I believe we will head higher for the rest of the day. IMO.
I think Bears even want it to happen.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
You may be right but I just sold out of SLB for a pretty scalp-job. This is a good play for you intraday-ers so long as oil stays strong.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
See 5m chart. Negative divergence on RSI and SS.
im still 100% short and 100% bearish but im seeing that there are many bullish. is this market action driven by amateurs, half of which are bullish? feels like it from the tape. this action will surely be good for the VIX . however, im not sure low volatility is really bullish. the big question is… can the bulls convince the bears or will the bears convince the bulls. some players have to switch sides to get this market to move. im staying in my positions short for now and have a 90 day window to profit. at one point i was 90% convinced of my position and have to say my confidence could be shaken should they continue to ram bullish calls down everyones throat and the market pushes above 950. maintaining a large cash position is probably a good idea over the short term here. there are too many arguments for each side of the call.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Playing long does not mean a person is bullish. It means you go with the flow and stay on your toes. Yeah, that cliche again. I’m a bear in a bull jacket. A jacket that gets discarded easily.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Try looking at shorting ultra or 3x long etfs instead of being long ultra shorts. That’s where I’m at and wider trading ranges mean larger degeneration over long term so it makes me feel a little better about holding during a continued rally.
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) — Ford Motor Co. said U.S. sales fell 32 percent in December, while Honda Motor Co. posted a 35 percent decline as the recession curbed demand in the world’s biggest auto market. ….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUJ1Uj1KjgIU
January 5th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
and they also report this is as expected and priced in so who knows what’s next.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
On the positive note for F. They are gaining market share what ever that means
Does anyone have any opinion on GS ? Recently, it has been too strong.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
It’s about to CRACK.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
you should be PERMABEAR SR. LOL. switching out of my SPX short into SRS was a huge move and im smiling so far
everyone around me says im so negative. however, these are the same people that years ago were asking my wife what kept me so positive all the time. hello peeps… im a realist.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:34 pm
what an insane move from its low. congrats to those longs in GS.
SRS continues to defy the market
Guys check out the 15 minute chart. Can’t believe I missed this. Clear 5 waves up. 2nd and 4th waves show alternation. 5th wave is in an ending diagonal. May be going out on a limb here and don’t take this as trading advice, but I think this duck is nearly cooked.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Interesting. Thanks
Depression won’t hit fellas… we’ll get some sell offs definitely but it ain’t gonna b the sell-offs like before… I think we need to realize this market could jus go sideways for a very long time until after obama finishes pouring money into the economy. If some of his ideas go sour (which they could easily do) then I think we’ll get that ridiculous panic which we all seem to desire. Everybody and their mothers are waiting for this selloff, they’re gonna make you sweat real hard!
January 5th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
i agree. no nasty sell off until spring. too many hedge funds are gated up and refusing to redeem. maybe if they can get the market to trade flat some of these people will cancel redemptions. that must be the game plan. of course, time will tell. im still looking for a nice 20% or more move in SRS which is not asking for much.
OIL looks like its about to break down. im still short from $46
January 5th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
short term target of $45.30
January 5th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
hs 1 min had confirmed break that was a fake.
On $SPX – 15min, there is an uptrend support that is holding. A fall into negative would break it. That support line seems very strong and has been touched 5 times. IMO we are either staying positive for the rest of the day, or a drop into the negative will be followed by a lot of selling. Well, there goes a negative!….lets see if it is a fakeout.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
The 5 wave pattern is complete IMO. So it doesn’t make sense for it to keep going up. We should get a correction and get it today.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
If I’m right then this is the throwover and endgame. If not then this is some other pattern.
Most traded options today:
-SWGML SPY Jan 17 09 90 Put 1.35 41,002 97,074
-QAVME QQQQ Jan 17 09 31 Put 0.81 38,815 119,153
-SWGMO SPY Jan 17 09 93 Put 2.42 34,275 38,538
-QAVMD QQQQ Jan 17 09 30 Put 0.44 33,298 112,351
-SZCMG SPY Jan 17 09 85 Put 0.47 28,660 142,643
-QAVAE QQQQ Jan 17 09 31 Call 0.89 27,378 58,885
-QAVAD QQQQ Jan 17 09 30 Call 1.53 27,170 80,763
-SPLXJ SPX Dec 18 10 500 Put 32.50 27,000 19,651
-SWGAO SPY Jan 17 09 93 Call 2.47 26,877 58,368
-SWGAP SPY Jan 17 09 94 Call 1.96 24,812 70,699
-SWGMP SPY Jan 17 09 94 Put 2.84 24,429 61,564
-XLFMB XLF Jan 17 09 28 Put 15.50 24,000 38,540
-SWGMN SPY Jan 17 09 92 Put 1.97 23,778 45,503
-QAAAT AAPL Jan 17 09 100 Call 2.14 23,358 45,110
-QAAAS AAPL Jan 17 09 95 Call 4.13 22,910 25,223
-SZCOK SPY Mar 21 09 89 Put 4.49 22,728 22,493
-WFCME WFC Jan 17 09 25 Put 22,176 178,579
January 5th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Can’t tell a whole lot based on this. But over 22,000 WFC Jan 25 puts are traded. Stock is trading at 28.78.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
WFC trade took place at mid point of B/A. Looks like a closing transaction. Besides, open interest is 178k. No big deal.
Out with hefty profits in FCX and GS. The GS call on friday was on the dot, time wise and pricewise. I still believe GS has some more to run. But not getting too greedy here.
January 5th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
man….was waiting for the DRYS pullback that never came. That stock is on fire today.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Look at the volumn on that pup. I’m impressed.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
How far do you think GS will pullback ? Would you buy GS on a pullback ?
How about FCX ?
January 5th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Not buying GS or fcx yet. FCX looks more promising than GS. Am waiting for the opportune moment. Will let you know if I find any more swing trades. As of this market is mixed.
So we are out.
January 5th, 2009 at 5:26 pm
FCX was my favorite stock during the last bull market. However, I have been too cautious recently to buy any individual company’s stock.
January 5th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
Hmm. better safe than sorry. Don’t chase FCX here. I am expecting a “deep” pullback into the rest of the week (around 888 or so). Lets see how that goes.
So no playing any sides yet. I just own TBT from 36. and long term SPY puts.
SPX broke 3m daily resistance at 933. Ah oh….
Nice head-fake, I think.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
Any signs you’re seeing that would make you think that? Personally, I’m seeing negative divergence building up on the SPX 10 min chart.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
I’m with you Charles. I’m sure there were some limit buy orders up there that were pretty tempting to the mm.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:07 pm
Ate my own dog food and picked up 10 SPY puts. let’s see how it tastes.
Highest put/call ratio TODAY (tend to work in FAVOR of the puts in the last two weeks before expiration)
———————————
-SWGML SPY Jan 17 09 90 Put 1.35 down -0.15 1.33 1.34 41,002 97,074
-QAVME QQQQ Jan 17 09 31 Put 0.81 down -0.16 0.80 0.81 38,815 119,153
-SWGMO SPY Jan 17 09 93 Put 2.42 down -0.18 2.37 2.38 34,275 38,538
-QAVMD QQQQ Jan 17 09 30 Put 0.44 down -0.14 0.45 0.46 33,298 112,351
-SZCMG SPY Jan 17 09 85 Put 0.47 down -0.09 0.48 0.49 28,660 142,643
-QAVAE QQQQ Jan 17 09 31 Call 0.89 down 0.09 0.89 0.90 27,378 58,885
-QAVAD QQQQ Jan 17 09 30 Call 1.53 down 0.17 1.55 1.56 27,170 80,763
-SPLXJ SPX Dec 18 10 500 Put 32.50 0.00 28.90 33.70 27,000 19,651
-SWGAO SPY Jan 17 09 93 Call 2.47 down 0.07 2.46 2.47 26,877 58,368