11:17am
Will be out for a couple of hours, the downward momentum for an intraday is important here, but on a daily view today looks like another low volume day. 87.60 represents a gap filler support, but we’ve already consolidated upwards and could see this break. The most important level is 86.40$. Once we break that, volume should pile in. But you should expect a bounce on a first hit.
11:10am
So far the market is very predictable and is sustaining a nice downward momentum.
10:42am
Push higher, starting to look like a bear flag formation on the SPY.
10:31am
You might get a double bottom formation on the QQQQ. So far the market has been on low volume trending down, and 29.40 has been support, so we can get a push higher here.
10:04am
Volume has been decreasing on the downside, but 10 am reversal time hasn’t really taken any effect just yet. One thing to keep in mind, is that we are trading under the 61.8% retracement from the huge 500 point gap that we had last week.
5:44am
Hey guys, I am back, and while my hedge fund’s fiscal year is over, I will do my best to give you the trades that I will be making on my personal account as this week progresses. Today is going to be an important day, as we have been trading above the resistance channel on the QQQQs, and right below the resistance channel in SPY in a consolidation or bull flag formation. As I said a week ago, the QQQQs might fakeout, while the SPY would probably be the best indicator to follow the charts. If you look at the chart of the QQQQ below, you can see why this is a bullish set up. Nonetheless, you still have to have a bearish bias until we fully breakout of the channel. Only then can you become a full bull and call this wave, elliot wave 4 (up). It never hurts to be bearish in a bear market. If you make a mistake, you can always just wait and short higher to average your cost basis. However if you’re a bull in a bear market, if you wait, you’ll just lose more.
CNBC has a Mutual Fund manager on now who has done -42% YTD. Yeah – here, manage some of my money too Value boy.
y would you interview someone who’s been losing so much money…do the opposite of whatever he says! tell him to join stocktock and learn something.
His salary remains the same…ho hum, screw some more middle-class.
LOL
H/S watch on NKE.
A close below 48 on high volume would have breached the neck-line of H/S formed since Nov 20.
If that happens a retest of Nov lows (43) is possible.
Just a matter of time. Good luck. Nice setup.
My read of the chart says IT WILL HAPPEN.
Here is another one (NKE competitor) that H/S has already happened.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/underaromor-hs
I’m dumping FAZ at 861.
Stopped out, merry christmas
Congrats. Nice trade.
TRIN has spiked over 2. These parabolic spikes have been followed by at minimum 20pt v-shaped reversals in 10 of the last 12 instances over the past 3 months. Keep riding it down, for sure, but be ready for a quick reversal an a pretty good sized bounce. This holds especially true if the TRIN closes over 2 for the day. Almost a guaranteed gap up the next AM.
TRIN just rolled over. Sometimes it double tops after these moves, so I generally wait until it goes back below 2 as a confirmation of a trend reversal.
are we back under 2 yet?
We seem to havea 20 point move everyday.
Sure, but which way? TRIN at oversold levels has been a pretty good indicator of a 20pt minimum move UP lately… just saying. I’m certainly not bearish here, and we still haven’t confirmed below 2, so enjoying my shorts still for now.
please repost when we make it back under 2 and confirm. TIA
Sorry, too busy taking profits. We crossed under 2 @ 3:45, though I sold before then when we started to reverse hard. The 2 rule is good for weeding out the fakeout turnovers, but if volume comes into the buying, might as well take profits. If we had held above 2 going into the close, I would have held my (new) longs overnight, as that usually results in a gap up, but as we crossed below 2, I sold into the close.
I hate this.. I’ve been bearish forever, but now my day trading privilages have been cut… So I have to hold till tomorrow if I make any moves. In this enviourment I’m just not sure.. Any tips?
Buy some on this big dip, something small and tasty. Go with 1x short etf, add more at the dips?
so the complete rise from 752-918 before these downward waves has fibs at:
854
835
815
these numbers might be slightly off (it might be closer to the 851 support that s135 stated)
i would say 851-854 is where we’re headed, and that should be where the 4 movement up starts. i would get out of anything there since this coincides with the last strong bottom.
but before that….remember i stated earlier that the first drop from 918-879 was about a 40 point drop and to look for something similar. we’re about there right now.
we just went from 904′s to 860′s, that’s about a 40 point drop. this would be a good spot for a bounce to happen, before the next leg down to the 850′s.
Thanks. Time-wise, 850 when?
probably won’t get there till tomorrow. this rise has the potential to go up to 878-879. 879 is the 38.2 retrace of 904-864. it’s also the fib retrace of 918-854 rise. it’s also about a 25-30 point rise, which was what the last rise was on this current down wave.
we might see this into tomorrow before the drop.
but i could be wrong about this, and we could just keep dropping. or who knows, maybe we’ll see a large santa claus rally afterall…
Maybe today … nice little dump underway.
yeah…i’m pretty certain we’re headed towards the 850s sooner or later. too many indicators pointing in that direction. just a matter of time.
Green volume just ain’t showin.
i’m happy either way, i’ve had srs since yesterday expecting this drop. as long as it gets to 850′s or lower, i’m a happy camper.
anyone else reloading?
$VIX now positive. Giddy-up.
VIX turned around, up now. 45.03
big damn green flare up to 87.10 on the SPY… again, the whole flare thing is up for debate. The first one this morning didn’t pan out.
Selling begets Selling at the end of the year.
anyone playin the bounce? I’m thinking TNA at 27 and sell at 30.
My trigger finger was itching to go with TNA also… just don’t know if I have the cajones to do it right now.
I know! I don’t wanna be trapped up here.
Anyone recommend DRYS? Sitting in the $9.40′s right now. What about Ford? Any recs?
No way I’m going long on a swing trade till we retest 741.
Falling wedge, volume down. Looks like it is getting ready to reverse.
Wedge? More like a 45-degree off ramp.
Looks like I got it right.
H/S formations being completed on some financial stocks
C, BBT, JPM….
I recommend being long FAZ. with tight stops…
I am long FAZ. We might see a series of drops in stocks and bull ETFs, in sync with rises in bear ETFs, with pennant consolidations in between, so placing a stop might be tricky. Pops separated by consolidations is the best pattern to sustain a rise in the bear ETFs over several days.
Here it is on a 10-min chart:
http://tinyurl.com/8ztygo
Or is it all a giant bear trap, letting the indexes fall below horizontal support, 20-day MAs and such, with bear ETFs breaking above 5-day MAs, and when we are all sucked in to the bear ETFs, the bad guys yank the rug out and down we go? It has happened before.
For now, it’s a nice day to be a bear, though:
Santa got my letter and the markets are tanking… while the VIX hits new daily highs. Now I just need TZA to get back to 74. LOL
I was there with BGU the week they began. Nice tax loss…though.
possible ihs forming nyx?
widowmaker time….playing again short. Want to buy TNA at the close, I like that bet.
Yeah. Same here. That noise you hear is me drooling over TNA.
$SPX at S2 for a spell.
$SPX and $INDU dancing on 860 and 8400, then fell thru. Ugly unless short.
Woo, u the man….good call, it looks like we might hit 850 today. If we hit 850 today u expecting a bounce…how far up and when…tomorrow?
TIA
For those interested in why we saw the VIX dropping the past couple of weeks and only sideways action in the S&P, here is one man’s explanation…
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
i’m out of TZA green volume showing up on SPY
H/S galore on bank stocks
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/hs-galore-on-bank-stocks
$SPX girly attempt to push to the 20ma/10m at 868.
Yo – Stopping buy to say I covered all my shorts and made a killing. Kigs can now get GI Joe with Kung fu Grip. Hope ya’ll are doing well. Will look at getting long tomorrow.
Have a good one.
PS- Kenny also covered his shorts – i did about 5min before him. He’s got us ending a 5th wave down. I’m not sure, I’m thinking we may be ending the wave 3 down. LT indicators may be nearling oversold.
This may just be the beginning of another pennant consolidation separating dips for bulls and rises for bears:
http://tinyurl.com/8ztygo
WTF was that all about. Glad to be long at 3:45 but feel really bad for anyone caught in that storm.
shit…I was gonna go long but missed the boat. Didn’t think that was coming so quickly. Ya take your eyes off for 1 min and BAM!
Sometimes needing to use the restroom can be helpful. Went long out of luck, not skills or TA.
woo nailed it – I listened to him and made a quick scalp long at the end of the day. Woo said we were in the third wave all day and he looked for the fourth wave to take us up to 875 or so. I watched the waves and counted them, bought just at the end of wave 5 of the third wave, and sold just before the bell for a quick 10 points. Thanks woo! You are the intraday wave man!
make that 14 points!
Note: the huge flare at approximately 3:15 on SPY was exactly where the it ended for the day.
Flare score today: 1 for 2.
should go up to 878-879 like i posted in (56). i would expect the drop lower there.
thanks woo – you are an intraday wave guru! I followed your analysis and had a good scalp at EOD.
Dead on woo. mkt should top out at 879 and wouldnt surprise me to see 853 tomorrow/Wednesday.
Monday is when the fun starts.
Daily Chart
+++++++++
$SPX closed below the 20dma. (sma and ema)
MACD is curling over and there is negative divergence on the MACD histogram.
RSI is back under 50 and the uptrend line was busted today.
STO is heading south after a bearish double-top.
We’re heading to the lower Bollingband folks (currently at 831).
I reserve the right to be absolutely totally wrong.
i’m with you on this. posted similar above. that 831 range is the 50% retrace of the whole wave movement starting from nov 21. wouldn’t be surprised if it hit.
Gee, right at market close, suddenly the S&P and DJIA popped back to close above 870 and 8500. Obviously a short squeeze, spelled PPT.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/its-a-miracle
or maybe just EWT playing out!
YEP , another sudden volume green worm at the close which i added to my short position on. those bulls… dont let the market come to you.. chase that market higher on the precipitous of an obvious depression.. makes real sense… agree … more funny PPT business.
With their current patterns… C to around 5.4 and BAC to around 9.
Thoughts?
John
Yup. Then maybe zero.
Hey guys. I found a pretty cool webinar called Market Internal Secrets you do have to register for the traders expo it you aren’t signed up already. http://www.eminiaddict.com/2008/12/market-internal-secrets.html
Does anyone have any opinion on GS at these levels for the short term ?
Wait till it breaks up thru 81.30 if you want to go long. Right now it’s in limbo.
I am actually already short. Not sure what to do with it. 82 seems like a good stop loss point.
NY ROUNDUP – Monday, December 22, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
· White House: No decision yet on seeking more TARP funds
· Chicago FED National Activity Index for November -2.47 from -1.27
· OCC: US mortgage re-defaults rise, no sign of abating
· Belgian Manufacturing Index for December slips to -36.5 – worse than expected
· National Bank of Hungry cuts rates 50 bps to 10% – as expected
COMMENTS
When markets move in low volume most people ignore the price action and instead revert to what the fundamentals mean. Today, with just 9 days left in 2008 and two of them major holidays, begs the question of whether anything important happened. Equities didn’t like today – with the move lower driven by fears about retail spending, job losses, and failed efforts to stem mortgage foreclosures. Oil fell over 6% as the front month flipped to February and renewed contango pressures flowed in with the weaker global outlook. Finally bonds rallied again despite a significant US supply. Fundamentals did seem to matter today but perhaps in a correlation matrix that left many far less secure than in the past. There are three stories to watch for some fundamental news: 1) More easing = more FX watching. Monetary policy in Hungary and China eased. There was more talk of easy money in the UK from two BOE speakers and more expectations of government spending to spark economies in Germany and the US. The easy money theme means many watch financial conditions. The cost of money for government borrowing isn’t the same as the bigger economy – so spreads really drive the show – and for many those improvements from last week stalled. Many link the lowering of rates with the side affect of lower currency – so the fear factor will be to watch CNY overnight for depreciation. 2) Fiscal deficits = more borrowing. The cost of borrowing a lot of money remains on the mind of many USD bears. Today should be watched closely as the US managed to borrow $92 bn well under 1%. Those concerned about the ability for the world to fund the US current account should take note for now. USD actually gained after the US 2Y auction and perhaps that rested on the result. For the UK the IMF doubts about its deficits hit the GBP hard. 3) Less confidence = less spending. The Belgian confidence drop from manufacturers brought that index to historic lows to match the pain in the IFO and INSEE. The drop in confidence for both consumers and producers globally has left the recession expectations on overdrive. The US markets today reflected this by selling the usual set of consumer sector shares as most see this as a very un-merry holiday. Bottom line. This is a market wanting for cash, direction and leadership. The lack of volume didn’t bring a renewed faith in fundamentals but more a desperation for any explanation as most want to see 2009 before taking any new risk. As for tomorrow expect more consolidation rather than trend – as the EUR waffles in its 1.3820-1.4180 range; JPY 88.50-91.00 – most see the lack of trading conviction as a signal that correlation isn’t causality.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3902 1.4027 Close: 1.3958
USD/JPY 89.54 90.50 Close: 90.04
EUR/JPY 125.05 126.08 Close: 125.68
GBP/USD 1.4700 1.4865 Close: 1.4862
EUR/GBP 0.9386 0.9514 Close: 0.9392
USD/CHF 1.0894 1.1025 Close: 1.0914
EUR/CHF 1.5199 1.5384 Close: 1.5234
AUD/USD 0.6811 0.6880 Close: 0.6839
USD/CAD 1.1985 1.2265 Close: 1.2191
NZD/USD 0.5712 0.5769 Close: 0.5741
just in case anyone is checking. i went back and used some better numbers. 876-877 is a closer number to where the next top might be. it’s the retrace on two different waves.
my other big retraces to look at are
850-851
829-830
808-809
also…noteworthy, from a previous similar wave (818-918)
880
868
857
sorry i didn’t get these numbers earlier, i didn’t realize they played such a crucial role today till afterthought -
if you remember, there was a bounce up to 868 before another drop to today’s lows. 857 was today’s low where we bounced.
so even though i set the bounce at 876-877 before the drop, don’t be surprised if it rises to 880 since this wave seems to have a strong correlation to the current wave. and since the 2 movement in this current wave was a good 25 point bounce. 880 is definitely not an impossibility.
if i’m wrong….my bad. haha. good luck.