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	<title>Comments on: Charts and Insights: Free Money, Rigged Markets</title>
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		<title>By: Charts and Insights: Free Money, Rigged Markets - StockTock &#124; MakingBears.Com</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-40050</link>
		<dc:creator>Charts and Insights: Free Money, Rigged Markets - StockTock &#124; MakingBears.Com</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2009 00:45:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-40050</guid>
		<description>[...] See the rest here: Charts and Insights: Free Money, Rigged Markets - StockTock [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] See the rest here: Charts and Insights: Free Money, Rigged Markets &#8211; StockTock [...]</p>
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		<title>By: tom</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20352</link>
		<dc:creator>tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 05:05:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20352</guid>
		<description>Richard, I&#039;m California born, raised and a coastal resident. My undergrad was from SDSU.  Things aren&#039;t looking so good in Cali but don&#039;t judge it by the 20-something because all my buddies and I cared about in San Diego while  in our early 20s was surfing, beer and girls.  San Diego could quite possibly be the best place on Earth and a bunch of 20 year-olds living in one pad is no big deal.  Chicks dug that.  :)

Separately, CA is playing it smart.  Just scalped 3B from infrastructure budget.  Look for CA to get the biggest Obama handout next year (to create jobs!)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard, I&#8217;m California born, raised and a coastal resident. My undergrad was from SDSU.  Things aren&#8217;t looking so good in Cali but don&#8217;t judge it by the 20-something because all my buddies and I cared about in San Diego while  in our early 20s was surfing, beer and girls.  San Diego could quite possibly be the best place on Earth and a bunch of 20 year-olds living in one pad is no big deal.  Chicks dug that.  <img src='http://www.focalequity.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Separately, CA is playing it smart.  Just scalped 3B from infrastructure budget.  Look for CA to get the biggest Obama handout next year (to create jobs!)</p>
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		<title>By: Richard (permabear)</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20350</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard (permabear)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 02:21:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20350</guid>
		<description>just recieved an email from one of my suppliers in San Diego.  they have went from a staff of 26 to just him.  he knows of a home containing some 20 odd 20-25 year olds living together.  six of them from one Hotel that laid them off and they are unable to find work.  they were all living paycheck to paycheck.  things were so falesly good that many of the minions believed that it would last forever.  if they have no savings now and no job how are they going to make it and grow this economy again?  30 to a house?  dont know how many of you live in California but his opinion from San Diego is that he will continue trying to keep things going in their warehouse.  but his future thinking is scarier than mine.  mad max he mentions LOL. moving to Montana.  but who knows... i dont live in California so i dont see what has passed so far.  maybe he is right.  one thing im certain of.  his feelings dont show up in government statistics or news spin.  this does not feel like a recession to me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>just recieved an email from one of my suppliers in San Diego.  they have went from a staff of 26 to just him.  he knows of a home containing some 20 odd 20-25 year olds living together.  six of them from one Hotel that laid them off and they are unable to find work.  they were all living paycheck to paycheck.  things were so falesly good that many of the minions believed that it would last forever.  if they have no savings now and no job how are they going to make it and grow this economy again?  30 to a house?  dont know how many of you live in California but his opinion from San Diego is that he will continue trying to keep things going in their warehouse.  but his future thinking is scarier than mine.  mad max he mentions LOL. moving to Montana.  but who knows&#8230; i dont live in California so i dont see what has passed so far.  maybe he is right.  one thing im certain of.  his feelings dont show up in government statistics or news spin.  this does not feel like a recession to me.</p>
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		<title>By: Mohan</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20349</link>
		<dc:creator>Mohan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 02:01:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20349</guid>
		<description>Mav,

A lot of people give a lot of credibility and credit (no pun intended) to Fed and the tools in their arsenal. To me the Fed itself is a big tool. The Alan Greenspan&#039;s Fed, in which Bernanke is a part of, didn&#039;t see this OBVIOUS thing coming. People who believe that Bernanke studied great depression and hence he can prevent one might as well be better of believing Santa. If he really studied GD, he should have prevented it because, for many who have half-knowledge of GD this is all too familiar. Bernanke should have raised hell to raise interest rates in 2003 and prevented this. Armed only with publicly available data, if I was smart enough to short home builders in 2005 and make a profit, I am sure Bernanke should have known more. He has access to more data. He didn&#039;t act then. He is reacting now. 

IMHO Greenspan and Bernake will go down in history as the pair that ruined America. BTW, My animosity for Greenspan&#039;s reckless policies is not new. It is more than 10 years old. When I was a regular participant on Silicon Investor, I started this thread nearly 10 years ago.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=24815

Yes, my handle on SI is Cynic2005. Since that time my opinion about Greenspan has changed only for the worse. Now I added Bernanke to the list.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mav,</p>
<p>A lot of people give a lot of credibility and credit (no pun intended) to Fed and the tools in their arsenal. To me the Fed itself is a big tool. The Alan Greenspan&#8217;s Fed, in which Bernanke is a part of, didn&#8217;t see this OBVIOUS thing coming. People who believe that Bernanke studied great depression and hence he can prevent one might as well be better of believing Santa. If he really studied GD, he should have prevented it because, for many who have half-knowledge of GD this is all too familiar. Bernanke should have raised hell to raise interest rates in 2003 and prevented this. Armed only with publicly available data, if I was smart enough to short home builders in 2005 and make a profit, I am sure Bernanke should have known more. He has access to more data. He didn&#8217;t act then. He is reacting now. </p>
<p>IMHO Greenspan and Bernake will go down in history as the pair that ruined America. BTW, My animosity for Greenspan&#8217;s reckless policies is not new. It is more than 10 years old. When I was a regular participant on Silicon Investor, I started this thread nearly 10 years ago.</p>
<p><a href="http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=24815" rel="nofollow">http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=24815</a></p>
<p>Yes, my handle on SI is Cynic2005. Since that time my opinion about Greenspan has changed only for the worse. Now I added Bernanke to the list.</p>
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		<title>By: mav</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20348</link>
		<dc:creator>mav</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 01:49:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20348</guid>
		<description>I don&#039;t think I ever said, the problems will go away if inflation comes in. We can surely be in a recession even if there is inflation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t think I ever said, the problems will go away if inflation comes in. We can surely be in a recession even if there is inflation.</p>
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		<title>By: MJ</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20347</link>
		<dc:creator>MJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 01:39:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20347</guid>
		<description>Richard:

I am in your and Mohan&#039;s camp as well. It&#039;s amazing to me the number of people who still think this is just &quot;another&quot; recession that will be worked out relatively quickly, say within a few years.  There HAS BEEN  massive destruction of wealth, created through leverage, and most of that has occurred among baby boomers who will soon be drawing from the social security system.  Most of these people, who previously were spending like fools, will be scrimping for the rest of their lives.  This prognosis assumes all is quiet on the geopolitical front.  Throw in a couple wars, multiple terrorist attacks, as well as numerous natural disasters and we are really looking at a nasty situation.  I can only laugh at those who say we will come out of this better than the rest of the world because we are &quot;Americans&quot;, apparently God&#039;s gift to the world.  That kind of arrogance is what will truly destroy the United States.  The &quot;social contract&quot; that has bound Americans together, and created an irrational respect for and subservience to the  federal government, has been immensely damaged by the &quot;crafty&quot; Ben Bernanke, the fool Hank Paulson, and the narcissistic retard Georgie boy Bush.   The actions taken to bail out the rich and connected at the expense of the average citizen has created a slow burning rage among many in this country.  The people being bailed out are the same people who conspired to outsource American jobs, or insource through illegal immigration, in order to put money in their own pockets. I do not believe the early thirties are a good analogy for the current situation.  The situations in Czarist Russia during the period of 1916-1920, or, the situation in Weimar Germany circa 1928-1930 are much more comparable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard:</p>
<p>I am in your and Mohan&#8217;s camp as well. It&#8217;s amazing to me the number of people who still think this is just &#8220;another&#8221; recession that will be worked out relatively quickly, say within a few years.  There HAS BEEN  massive destruction of wealth, created through leverage, and most of that has occurred among baby boomers who will soon be drawing from the social security system.  Most of these people, who previously were spending like fools, will be scrimping for the rest of their lives.  This prognosis assumes all is quiet on the geopolitical front.  Throw in a couple wars, multiple terrorist attacks, as well as numerous natural disasters and we are really looking at a nasty situation.  I can only laugh at those who say we will come out of this better than the rest of the world because we are &#8220;Americans&#8221;, apparently God&#8217;s gift to the world.  That kind of arrogance is what will truly destroy the United States.  The &#8220;social contract&#8221; that has bound Americans together, and created an irrational respect for and subservience to the  federal government, has been immensely damaged by the &#8220;crafty&#8221; Ben Bernanke, the fool Hank Paulson, and the narcissistic retard Georgie boy Bush.   The actions taken to bail out the rich and connected at the expense of the average citizen has created a slow burning rage among many in this country.  The people being bailed out are the same people who conspired to outsource American jobs, or insource through illegal immigration, in order to put money in their own pockets. I do not believe the early thirties are a good analogy for the current situation.  The situations in Czarist Russia during the period of 1916-1920, or, the situation in Weimar Germany circa 1928-1930 are much more comparable.</p>
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		<title>By: tom</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20346</link>
		<dc:creator>tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 01:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20346</guid>
		<description>Richard, There will be winners.  It is a game of Jenga.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Richard, There will be winners.  It is a game of Jenga.</p>
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		<title>By: mav</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20345</link>
		<dc:creator>mav</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 01:22:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20345</guid>
		<description>The FED and treasury have way too many weapons. The LT treasuries are close to a top. 
The treasury has the &quot;real bazooka&quot; in devaluing the dollar. It can buy foreign debt. I am not debating who will get screwed etc. The flood out of treasury will ensue. I am &quot;looking forward&quot; to this happening. I am primarily a chartist and not a fundamental macro guy. 
Let me present one chart in my defense. 
http://goldprice.org/bob/uploaded_images/BroadDollar-774367.gif
1. I can count 5 waves up and and A and a B and an ongoing C
2. I can see a HnS and we just backtested the neckline these few months.

Of course elliotician&#039;s reserve the right to change labels anytime ;-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The FED and treasury have way too many weapons. The LT treasuries are close to a top.<br />
The treasury has the &#8220;real bazooka&#8221; in devaluing the dollar. It can buy foreign debt. I am not debating who will get screwed etc. The flood out of treasury will ensue. I am &#8220;looking forward&#8221; to this happening. I am primarily a chartist and not a fundamental macro guy.<br />
Let me present one chart in my defense.<br />
<a href="http://goldprice.org/bob/uploaded_images/BroadDollar-774367.gif" rel="nofollow">http://goldprice.org/bob/uploaded_images/BroadDollar-774367.gif</a><br />
1. I can count 5 waves up and and A and a B and an ongoing C<br />
2. I can see a HnS and we just backtested the neckline these few months.</p>
<p>Of course elliotician&#8217;s reserve the right to change labels anytime <img src='http://www.focalequity.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20343</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 00:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20343</guid>
		<description>you can see they are making a huge effort to smoke people out of treasuries... is it working?  hell no.  and every country in the world is trying to devalue thier currency before the depression hits.  why would we think the US will win this battle?  every central bank is in panic mode.  look at what Japan just did tonight. first it was the race to ZERO and the US won that.  and now its the race to devalue currency through monetary easing... good god... this is going to get out of control.  who will win this painful battle?  nobody. everybody is screwed and at some point they will have to agree to something else other than war.  we all hope.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>you can see they are making a huge effort to smoke people out of treasuries&#8230; is it working?  hell no.  and every country in the world is trying to devalue thier currency before the depression hits.  why would we think the US will win this battle?  every central bank is in panic mode.  look at what Japan just did tonight. first it was the race to ZERO and the US won that.  and now its the race to devalue currency through monetary easing&#8230; good god&#8230; this is going to get out of control.  who will win this painful battle?  nobody. everybody is screwed and at some point they will have to agree to something else other than war.  we all hope.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard</title>
		<link>http://www.focalequity.com/2008/12/21/chart-insights-122108/comment-page-1/#comment-20342</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Dec 2008 00:39:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.stocktock.com/?p=10318#comment-20342</guid>
		<description>Mohan,  your logic is clear and concise and id like to let you know that i 100% agree. it seems half the crowed favours an inflationary rally and that inflation is here to stay since it always has during each of the corrective waves since the great depression.  however, im fully aware of this like anyone else.  this time, for me, it looks different.  this collapse of the financial system is more than 10x worse than the S&amp;L collapse and does not mimic the 1982 or 1987 collapse.  this has incredible deflationary strength and momentum.  the momentum towards deflation is strong on so many fronts that it can&#039;t be ignored. the idea that you can print your way out of asset deflation may work in a milder pullback.  however, this pullback on all fronts is intense.  this is not a correction of a bull market like the past.  this is an economic implosion on a world wide front.  this also makes clear the productivity gains.  productivity gains in the modern world are also detrimental to the economy in the near term.  this poses another crimp into the inflationary argument.  less people chasing more goods = deflation.  printing money that no one wants to borrow as households deleverage will do nothing.  this is my opinion and it is the only argument that makes sense to me.  im in your camp Mohan.  half in one camp and half in another should make for interesting trading quarter.  im thinking the market hits new lows by May.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mohan,  your logic is clear and concise and id like to let you know that i 100% agree. it seems half the crowed favours an inflationary rally and that inflation is here to stay since it always has during each of the corrective waves since the great depression.  however, im fully aware of this like anyone else.  this time, for me, it looks different.  this collapse of the financial system is more than 10x worse than the S&amp;L collapse and does not mimic the 1982 or 1987 collapse.  this has incredible deflationary strength and momentum.  the momentum towards deflation is strong on so many fronts that it can&#8217;t be ignored. the idea that you can print your way out of asset deflation may work in a milder pullback.  however, this pullback on all fronts is intense.  this is not a correction of a bull market like the past.  this is an economic implosion on a world wide front.  this also makes clear the productivity gains.  productivity gains in the modern world are also detrimental to the economy in the near term.  this poses another crimp into the inflationary argument.  less people chasing more goods = deflation.  printing money that no one wants to borrow as households deleverage will do nothing.  this is my opinion and it is the only argument that makes sense to me.  im in your camp Mohan.  half in one camp and half in another should make for interesting trading quarter.  im thinking the market hits new lows by May.</p>
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