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19
Dec
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8:30am Earnings Before the Open: KMX, JBL.
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: CTAS.
Events: The quarterly share rebalance for the S&P 500, 400, 600 and REIT indices will occur at the close of business.
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19
Dec
|
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: KMX, JBL.
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: CTAS.
Events: The quarterly share rebalance for the S&P 500, 400, 600 and REIT indices will occur at the close of business.
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$SPX triangle busted.
SPY – you next boy.
888.8 is around my 38.2 retrace from the previous up wave. it should break soon, but the resistance is a given.
next is magical 886! the the .5 of the original up from 854-918.
December 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Yes. I’m scaling in here so I get a fill.
December 19th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Go Schweizer…Go Schweizer…Go Schweizer…
S&P will close @910 today. It’s preparing for a strong up move. It may make a quick visit to ~880 before that however I feel that less likely.
December 19th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
so you think that it will drop 8-10 more points, and then jump 30 points to 910 in 50 minutes? o_0
December 19th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
That’s what I expected on option expiration day like this. However that didn’t quite happen and this came out to be a quieter OpEx day. I expect to see the bounce on Monday though.
Intraday cup and handle on vix?
December 19th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Nice.
December 19th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Are you into FAZ? What is your initial stop?
December 19th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Blind squirrels sometimes find an acorn as well…
December 19th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
here we go….weeeeee
Sheilds are down Captain, I don’t know how much more we can take …..
December 19th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
DEATH BLOW!
December 19th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
why a death blow?
i am with you though!
December 19th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
SPY Traingle busted.
December 19th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
yep…at 885 is where I had it…
December 19th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
there’s 886! =)
my next is closer to 878, but i have to check more to see numbers in between….
December 19th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
like clockwork haha=) today has been pretty good so far.
can we hit S1 today?
is ~872 20dayMA is within reach, with 40min on the clock…?
volume to light buying sso might b adouble bottom
so are we bearish for next week or bullish? If you were to put on a position to day what would it be? I was wanting to get long til the 23rd . Any suggestions?
December 19th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
if i were to take a guess…i would short into monday. this thing is headed lower from the numbers and the EW. i think it’s headed a good amount lower.
well i’m off to company lunch. good luck everyone.
Fake out? ????
December 19th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Pattern is still good. You should expect a refusal/backtest before the real flush.
FAZ just took a nosedive.
I believe the fake-out was a fake out…just testing support that was once resistance…all clear to short now…
i wonder if we can hold 887
December 19th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
we may even close in all three!
887 look solid as it was tested multiple times now!
Damn Scotty must have fixed the shields.
December 19th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Either that or the market failed geometry.
Nice set up, wrong time apparently.
There were some large sells .30-.40 below the bid on the close.
December 19th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Yup – finished below the triangle though. Monday will be another adventure.
December 19th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
PIC:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A9329
$VIX says we rumble.
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/photo/show?id=2348194%3APhoto%3A9328
December 19th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Which service/platform do you use for your real time 10m charts?
Stockcharts.com, your broker, or another party?
found something of interest for the bearish…on cnbc of all places (though it was cnbc asia)…
very interesting….sounds a lot like the thirties…deflation for 10 yrs
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=971630850&play=1
whats crazy is oil closed higher
December 19th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
martin;
where are you looking at?
cnbc shows ol down 2.35.
I
December 19th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
I see what you are talking about, The feb contract is higher.
December 19th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
I was in before I got out…too hard catching the knife…even though intuition says…Oil can’t go much lower.
887.25 on the sp
uso on my scottrade shows a 33 cent gain
887.87 final close on the sp
Talk about time decay intraday on the ultra shorts…SKF and FAZ are negative on a day XLF fell 2%…WTF?
December 19th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
It has to be some of their options expiring worthless. Look at SRS – they got nuked for 12%. CRE companies didn’t do that well.
Comments from GS
NY ROUNDUP – Friday, December 19, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury: Auto Loan to be 300 bps over LIBOR with 2% floor
US Treasury Paulson seeks second $350 bln in TARP bailout funds
US President Bush says US will help automakers avoid collapse
ECRI: US Recession to worsen “significantly”
Colombia Central Bank cuts policy rate 50bps to 9.5% – unexpected
COMMENTS
The US didn’t get much news – the much awaited US auto loan from TARP was announced. The details seem as leaked – $13.4 bn with another $4 bn dependent on Congress allowing the Bush Team to tap the second tranche of TARP $350 bn. The money has the usual stipulations – executive pay limits, warrants but it has one ominous warning that the loans will be called March 31 if companies don’t appear viable. This led to some doubts that the plan was as friendly as the headlines suggested and the equity rally went sideways with EUR/JPY remaining under pressure leading to a break in the EUR 1.3880 support and opening up a test of 1.3820. Volumes were light while the snow in New York was heavy making for a long day as option expiry in equities provided less than the usual entertainment. The stocking stuffers for the weekend come from the emerging themes for 2009: 1) Inflation or deflation? Yesterday GS had a research call and it was oversubscribed. The market fears deflation in the US and the rest of the world with many looking to Japan’s lost decade for its lessons. But a solid minority see a reflation that will spark a Weimar Republic risk in the US. 2) Value and Volatlity. The movements in markets have left many investors on the sidelines. The quieter holiday weeks ahead may be the necessary break to inspire some valuation metrics to return. Many see a brighter 2009 for equity returns. 3) Correlations and FX. The biggest trades of the year may have been best expressed in correlation trades – EUR to Oil, AUD to Gold, JPY to US Rates. The path of 2009 will have a number of trades that revolve around similar assumed trading rules. The present connection of the USD to credit or EUR/JPY to equities may be at risk. 4) Quantitative Easing vs. Negative Real Rates. The QE policy path of the FED and BOJ contrasts sharply to the ECB. The focus on real rates will be a big policy issue for 2009 with negative headline CPI and sticky core inflations. The role of rates to banks set by the central bank misses the point of the credit crisis which leaves many that need cheap money left out in the cold. 5) Private vs. Public capital needs. The break in credit process leaves open a shift of private debts to public ones. The G10 nations may find that they have a better recovery path in the process compared to the Emerging Markets. This leaves many thinking that sovereign credit risks will become a more significant part of the equation of trading in equities, FX and fixed income. 6) Competitive devaluations. The rush for growth in 2009 has left many nations searching for any mechanism to jump start their economy. The USD weakness that followed the explicit push for QE Tuesday has been followed with comments and actions from Japan, Norway and Switzerland. Risk of a G10 rush to FX for relief may be the short-term block to a broader G7 consensus on how to fix the global recession. Bottom Line: The FX markets have gone on holiday. The move EUR from 1.32 to 1.47 over the last two weeks shocked many people out of their trading framework of Risk Aversion being a USD positive event. The risk today was that the USD weakness unwound significantly further – but that didn’t happen. We will test it again next week but many see the new year as a more likely place and time to search for presents. There are no stocking stuffers this year.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.3824 1.4030 Close: 1.3884
USD/JPY 88.80 89.85 Close: 89.45
EUR/JPY 123.75 125.20 Close: 124.19
GBP/USD 1.4810 1.5058 Close: 1.4862
EUR/GBP 0.9280 0.9373 Close: 0.9342
USD/CHF 1.0990 1.1132 Close: 1.1078
EUR/CHF 1.5350 1.5475 Close: 1.5381
AUD/USD 0.6767 0.6878 Close: 0.6819
USD/CAD 1.2112 1.2345 Close: 1.2228
NZD/USD 0.5708 0.5794 Close: 0.5739
http://www.cyclesman.info/Interviews/JohnTony121908.mp3