4:05pm
I will have a video up by 7ish, I just want to point out that today was not a fakeout day, everything was written in the charts, and the price action was very much according to support/resistance.
3:54pm
Today we tested the channel resistance yet again, and the failure to break, should have been the que to get short. We also failed to break $840 on a 10 minute, but i do favor a head and shoulders formation and then a break.
3:38pm
MACD stochastics on the 10 minute SPY point to newer lows (no double bottom).
3:23pm
We now have a bigger head and shoulders forming, with a neckline at the 84 SPY mark, but we need a right shoulder to form.
3:06pm
Haha i spoke too early, good to see the sell side volume increase..
3:02pm
Head and Shoulders coming into play, but in order for a true reversal to happen, we need more volume on the sell side.
2:15pm
Possible head and shoulders on the 10 minute SPY, over the span of 2 days, with head at 88, and left shoulder at 87. Then again, it’s still far fetched.
1:12pm
Volume will probably increase around now, the question is will the bears have enough force to break 840, I will look to cover some of my shorts there. We are now testing the 50 sma of 10 minute, can we break?
1:04pm
Move lower on even lighter volume than the move higher, this is a crazy set up here.
12:48pm
Reverse consolidation to the upside, maybe we can get some bears piling in here soon.
12:19pm
This move lower seems more like a consolidation than a reversal, despite volume being a little stronger finally.
9:43am
Bond Yeilds continue to fall to new lows, when will the stock market follow?
9:15am
Futures are down about one percent, we are now trading close to the 50% retracement. Again, you have to favor bulls in the short term, as they have managed to reverse the markets at all times. If you’re a swing trader, you still have to favor bears, since they have managed to defend channel resistance at all times.
Shanky, you call it!
I did not call anything. The Schwitzman put us on it. I’m such an idiot I was actually believing this thing could go higher. I’m so confused. Good thing I was confident enough to buy some shorts earlier.
I get it – I don’t see anywhere for it to stop. Hows that?
816-818 spx Other than that it is a dark black hole.
Where is GR and the flare alert on the SPY?
i thought people don’t like the call.
I like the calls, there is always a spike right after
Don’t let Mohan spoil your fun. We like it. As long as you keep producing and contributing at your capacity you may continue.
i was asking you to call it
. glad to hear some people like it.
“Don’t let Mohan spoil your fun.”
And how did I do that?
Wonder if 840 is gonna fail????
10m MACD says we have a ways to go still.
So S2 next target?
YEPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
840 looks to be failing. BAC has given up trying to retrace.
I thought it was my rant earlier that triggered it…
840 is toast.
820 now … come to papa.
Is this the beginning of a long wave down below 800 on S&P
I was always bearish for the swing trade… and I do believe we’ll see new lows before we see new highs, but you want to see 820 break first before making judgement.
Testing 61.8% retrace from at 84.11 from 11/28 high to 12/1 low. Next level 82.23 if it fails.
Light buying volume. May not hold.
BOND Yields dropping like crazy!
Umm…. Bond close at 3 PM.
Bit of a fight here to hold the fib line.
Guys: I posted EW official take on the waves on yesterday’s intraday…see the last comment. No offence to anyone doing their own EW analysis but I like it from the horse’s mouth, esp when I’m dealing with hard earned money.
anyone still bullish. look at CASY on the NASDAQ… im short this puppy
In case you haven’t been looking ,IDAN is posting periodic comments at the top.
818 then a dark black hole. Can’t find support anywhere going back till the bottom.
My bad 835 – 828 – 819 – 815 – 741 – hell.
SPX supports.
I’m really hoping this puppy hits 666. That would be the mother of all buying opportunities.
where is the bounce?
i guess it’s not yet. there’s supposed to be a bounce somewhere haha. with this drop, the overall EW can hold up well and take us lower overall. good stuff.
You mess with the bear you get the CLAWSSSSSS
I know not everyone is convinced about the money flow on WSJ. But today started out with money flowing out of the SPY i.e. -150. Then it turned around to +150 inflow. It has increased to +324 since. So that is a delta of +550 since morning. We haven’t seen any real buying interest in the SPYs at least Buying on Weakness for quite awhile. Not drawing any conclusions just yet but just thought I’d share it.
SPY was the leader of selling on strength yesterday.
You have to look at the bigger picture. One day alone is insufficien to draw any conclusions. Search on Social. I’ve posted some data there. Interesting to see how tomorrow pans out.
unbelievable. how could be that easy?
So what’s the play at the end of the day guys and gals? Close shorts or will this continue into tomorrow?
wait to see the last 10 minutes play out.
Any insight now?
So nice to see some real conviction finally after all day of it being right on the edge of every TA market known to man in both directions.
*marker I ment
This is the second big distribution day we’ve been looking for. I’ll be out of half my shorts at close and swing half of them. The double distributions are followed by a rally. S135 start setting up your next bull call.
woo, where are we?
flare
and here comes the bounce?
Nice.
I closed half my shorts, and I am not a bull here by any means.
Might pause when the VIX hits 65. I hope not.
I covered before the stampede so I’d get filled. Now overbought on the 10m.
A C O O L $35K gain today. Sure beats working.
Good trading with you boys.
What do you trade? ES or E-mini?
Cash
What?
Mohan is missing all this – or is he being really quiet. i bet he’s shedding tears of joy.
I was out most of the day. I have been back since 2:45. You are not reading my posts.
closing the day on a bounce?
reached 38% retracement level.
there should be a 3 wave bounce…
What bothers me as a bear is a recovery into close. May be they will to run it up tomorrow regardless of the magnitude of job loss.
They do have the fresh powder to accomplish a jam job – some from the TARP money and some from the printing presses.
This kind of an action (down from 3-345 Pm and then a recovery into the close) would indicate a bear trap.
Was that enough of a recovery to indicate a bear trap? What are you keying into?
My feel is that they would wait with the money for the absolute bottom to form before they get in. Any entry at these levels have little upside. The key is how much can that money push this up.
Since Mohan is from India. He may be indulging in some sweets
Nah… just came back after giving a lecture to my chairman about terrorism in India.
closing around 848?
perhaps closing on the 2nd bounce.
85.68 – 5 day VWAP – let’s see if it can regain it before the close. I don’t see it happening. We are close…
close but no cigar.
the 3 wave up should go higher than where it’s gone, it’s too weak of a lift for the 3 wave to have completed at the range it’s at now…
close enough.
this is the best fake out i ever seen
Nah…I think the past 2 day intraday’s reversal where far more intriguing.
lol, we ve seen so many “best fakeouts ever” during the last 3 weeks, people are beginning to expect fakeouts… so we should begin to expect the opposite again – without posting it or telling it on cnbc
Got out of half my shorts. Made about 8%. Not bad. Willing to see what happens in the AM. Then time to get long baby for this wave 4 up!
Hey Shanky will you let us know when you go long?
Absolutely.
I think thats premature. We didn’t even go near mondays lows.
i got out of all my shorts. don’t trust this market and think there’s also an up portion coming up before the next drop.
starting dec 1 to dec 3-4 there’s a 5 wave up, and a 3 wave down just completed after that. the 5 wave up is coming soon i think. maybe i’m getting delusional, but i made 30+% on my calls so i’m happy for now.
Keep it up Woo – I’m liking it.
woo, how likely is is that the last 3 wave down is not complete? Reason I ask is that it looks mighty short compared to the first 3 wave down. Seems like it should go to about 800 or 805 – gap fill from Nov 24???
Also, 800 is a retracement of 61.8% from the 741 lows, and it is just about where a completed head and shoulders (right shoulder forming now) would take it.
if that were to happen, we’d have to destroy 816. then the 5-3-5 from dec 1 wouldn’t hold (which is possible).
i’m not saying the gap to 800 or even 770 won’t be filled, but i don’t think JUST yet. it might even gap down tomorrow, but i think it has to go up first. it could 5 wave up for up to 2-3 days like before for all i know.
best thing is to be flexible and go with the market and charts. predicting is tough, but every few moments you get clear shot great short and long positions.
it’s like texas hold ‘em you gotta wait for the right moment to go all in.
apologies to any if you lose money on account of my analysis!
I think we could go up tomorrow as everyone is expecting bad emplyment numbers and everyone thinks they’ll be selling on Fridays. Plus as Shanky mentioned tomorrow could be a distrubition day but on upside and look at S&P its at the lower edge close 845 so more possibility of a bounce.
But you never know with these damn markets. Thinsgs change on a minute by minute basis.
Just because everyone thinks they will be selling on Fridays and expect a bounce the bounce may not happen too. – as u said the market will make all keep guessing.
you don’t have to guess as much with charts…they are just a little tricksy…like hobbits…
I am on my cell so can’t see the charts, but did we made a lower low than yesterday?
No.
BDI closing today at — guess what — 666. omen?
Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion
Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion
Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion
S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion
Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion
The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)
Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion
Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion
NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion
TOTAL: $3,920,000,000,000
2008 BAILOUT TOTAL AS OF NOV 2008: $4,616,000,000,000 (not all spent, but government commitments)
“back in my day…i used to be able to purchase half a country, a couple wars and fly to space for 1 trillion dollars….and ice cream was less than a dime.”
Over $8,000,000,000,000.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27912307
DAMN FAZ is even lagging SKF. Im holding through hell and highwater.