|
03
Dec
|
4.02pm
Insane rally towards the end of the day, we broke the 61.8% retracement but haven’t really confirmed it. On a first look, I do believe that a gap lower is in works for tomorrow, but we’ll have to analyze the charts more thoroughly before putting big short positions on.
3:43pm
I’m playing SDS right now, with a stop a little above 880.
3:33pm
Will the market close above or below it’s 50% retracement of 86$? on SPY.
3:02pm
Head and shoulders on the ES, with ascending neckline at $840 ish .
2:24pm
Late afternoon rally staging here. Today is another possible consolidation day, and we have to see how far up this can go, before putting on big positions.
12:57pm
Market failed to confirm a break of the 50% retracement at 86$, we’ll have to maybe consolidate up, and then break.
12:37pm
The 61.8% retracement served as resistance, we’re now heading back up, we could be seeing a head and shoulders formation on the SPY. I will get short if we get close to 61.8%, with a tight stop around 87.65$.
the triangle is running out of room.
Reading this market clearly is like trying to read Phil Ivey when you have an underpair to the board.
Flop is 7 9 Q and your holding two red 8’s.
Phil Fires, what to do? If you are right and are ahead, you can let him bluff it all off to you, however if you are wrong you were the clown playing 88 with a couple of overs on the board vs Phil Ivey, so if you are going to play it you gotta know. However, this is Phil Ivey we are talking about so you can’t ever really know. So you have to go by what you think he is trying to do, or you can fold and waste the capital already invested, but on every street you are gonna have to call him down if you think you are right.
See the Market is Phil Ivey, and if we call him down to the river there is a good chance he was betting with air, of course he could always hit one of his cards on the way, and thats the risk you take. Or you could have been wrong the whole time, however that doesn’t really matter, the thing that really matters is if you win at the end.
Result of hand Turn was a Deuce, River was another 7. We call on flop, he bets turn hard and ships it on the river. We make the call. He has AJ.
We just won the 2008 Tunica 10k event over Phil Ivey!
CAT’s behavior’s interesting today. BUCY, TEX, IR, JOYG all are down and CAT’s one of the srongest on the DOW. Must be some news I missed somewhere.
SPX trying to close above the 20dma.
BAC working threw the last of the resistence now
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
One more push and short covering will begin
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:42 pm
and we are off to the races.
should face a little resistance at days highs before shooting higher on the last movement of the 5 wave.
Mohan – What is your latest take on this action? Are you still in with your Dec options? Thanks
ty is your commodore catching this
Seriously though, can anyone remember the last time Tony C was right? Dude should hang it up.
If 866 does not hold the bull will have fun here.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
MACD and RSI and 866 got in the way of the move up, but looks like STO may have another thing in store. We may be headed higher.
Was it me who said we would break today’s prior highs?
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
am with you mate
Shanky sorry – seems like shweizer is da man.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
yes it was haha=)
i think it will break 866 as well, but might not have time to do it today.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Fake out move – don’t get excited. (I’m beginning to reach for excuses now).
woo, has wave 5 reached its goal?
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:51 pm
i think ~866 is the 3 of a 5 wave. i think the 5 hasn’t finished from looking at the length of the other waves intraday. there should be one more up before a drop starts, but this could be the top too….
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:45 pm
3 from bottom to top was about $37, 5 is now $38.
15:45, good time to turn?
Stupid broker just sold me stop at a percent+ higher than ordered…what a cheat.
I really wish I could sell my UYG at the end of day but I’ve reached my daytrader limit
Still even with a gap down tomorrow I should(tm) be able to get out with a profit. I think tomorrow I ride my position with a loose stop if we gap up premarket.
Very impressed by the market the past two days despite it looking choppy. The bulls are holding their own so to speak for the first time in a while which is encouraging to see. Immediate rejection of lower prices. 880 should be our next stop, I agree with commentator.
With all this bullish volume I’d be careful adding shorts here even though we are somewhat overbought.
We are going to close over the 20dma with volume on the SPX, and that might be trigger for a gap-up Thursday.
I am on the sidelines with some sweeeeeet gains.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Congrats, Schwiezer.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Sorry, Schweizer. Good job.
December 3rd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
As 875 is such a big target, being the upper descending trendline of the great bear of ‘08, I’d expect at least a bounce off of it, so may be a good place to try a small short play right before the close anticipating a gap down overnight. Kinda risky though.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Well done!
Sorry insert egoistic posts like shanky did — hahahah money money big money Shanky who da man?
looks good oil not going up with this rally….decupling
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Ditto gold.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Commmodities have closed at 2:30.
As shanky said we meet tomorrow
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
Then why do I have a gold chart here that goes until 4pm?
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
And an oil chart here that goes until 4pm?
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/membersarea/thread.php?ThreadID=15
Not trying to be an ass, just confused.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:31 pm
gold trading is almost continuous during the weekdays. click on the small gold chart on the top right corner of kitco site, a pop up will show which market is trade and the current spot price (with some delay).
I was gunning for this, wohooo feels so good now, cashed out big time today. Good hunting boys need to dash off for a date now. bye
My best timed day to date:
UYG @ 4.65 premarket – Out 5.20
SKF @ 140.56 – Out 150.58
UYG @ 5.00 still holding.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Well played!
Shoulda called 875, but I did not think it would make it past 866. Thus, I did not. godd call bullys. Tomorrow we’ll meet again.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
haha. close though=)
Congrats to all traders. What a $uper Day.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Not had enough ?
http://www.yorba.tv/yorbatvlive.htm
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Good call in a tough market – well done buddy.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Thanks – your turn.
December 3rd, 2008 at 7:33 pm
Thanks Schweizer135 for the all the postiive info today. I went agaist my bear mentality and played the ERX and FAS twice and made some change.
Thanks to Shanky, Mohan and others for their constant updates and kept the bulls in check.
Shorting an uptrend ?
Aftermarket at 866 – does that count?
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
You get a participation ribbon!
Man, today is another insane trading day. I wonder who is at the wheel of this “auto-piloting” free market.
December 3rd, 2008 at 4:26 pm
exactly…. you have companies trading at 10% of their highs and the market is above 50% of its highs.. makes alot of sense. key: its suppose to drive us crazy and drive us out. they want your PUTS for cheap!
SKF closed it’s lower gap at $135 – Now let’s go close the big gap at $235. game on!
ES hit almost exactly on 1.618 of yesterday’s high-low retracement during the last run up.
I haven’t received anything from GS now for a few days. I wonder if they are getting hit with job layoffs. If I receive anything I’ll be sure to post it.
Citibank was stopped out of a long GBP/USD position overnight. GBP dropped as low at 1.4670 overnight. Citi is a bit cold at the moment.
Pete
EW Outlook: From the source…I shall summarize and I can’t/won’t be including their charts here.
Assuming the rise from Monday’s low is an upward correction, it should be just about over and the next leg down should be on the verge of beginning. A strong push through a channel line would be a signal that the market was moving higher, not lower over the short term. They state several reason to support this idea.
Neart term basis is to keep a close eye on the upper channel line of the parallel trendchannel, as well as the 879 level (E-mini S&P), which is the .786 retracement of the decline from last Friday’s high. Tomorrow, the upper channel crosses 877, which is just two points from the 879 level. As long as the E-mini does not push through the 877-879 area, odds strongly favor a decline that should start tomorrow. This decline should increase in intensity as it progresses back to, and below, the November 21 lows.
December 3rd, 2008 at 9:22 pm
A strong push through the 877-879 area area would clearly confirm that wave C up was underway, and that prices were pushing above the November 28 high of 897. We should know the outcome fairly early in tomorrow’s session. The upside potential will, in part, be determined by the behavior of breadth and volume. If both expand, the rally will have legs. If they remain muted, the advance may be somewhat stunted after it pushes above the November 28 high.