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02
Dec
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4:12pm
Wow.. what an insane day of trading… we’ll have to analyze the charts and see where that leaves us.. I’ll try to get a video done later today.
3:24pm
The market is rallying on strong volume, retesting the $84 resistance. Again, as a bear of this market, i am not necessarily panicking out of my swing trades yet, I still feel like this consolidation will yeild more downside.
2:53pm
83.75$ on the SPY is a 50% retracement of the move lower that we just had, maybe that will form the downward reversal to break new lows.
2:25pm
We might have hit a double bottom area, but the fact that we lost 200+ points on the dow in minutes makes me more bearish and i’m assuming a bounce here is conoslidation for a break of yesterdays low.
1:56pm
Head and shoulders formation on the SPY 10 minute. So far we have the left shoulder and the head. I’m hoping to see a little bit of upward consolidation before I can enter a big short position.
1:30pm
Intraday, the market still looks somewhat bullish, although much less bullish than before as we keep getting consolidations for moves higher. Never the last, the fact that the volume has finally died down may help bears regain control into tomorrow or wednesday.
12:13pm
We are approaching the 38.2% retracement on the SPY, the volume isn’t that strong, starting a short position there and then adding more on a 50% retracement sounds like a good plan. They are at 85$ and 86% on teh SPY respectively.
1:00am
Hey guys, I’m setting up for tomorrow’s trading and we might be looking at a small consolidation bounce. This bounce can last 1-2 days, and will provide great shorting opportunities. Here’s a chart to look at my SPY resistance lines. I would short at $84, 38.2% retracement and 50% retracements as long as volume remains low on the upside.
GE getting stronger.
I feel I lost 10years of my life today due to volatility
Got stopped out of my FAZ with a small profit. I really should have walked my stop up but alas I was so focused on where to enter the position I didn’t plan properly on how to exit it.
How can anyone be bearish when the Daily, Hourly, and 10m charts all have numerous bullish divergences.
We are in wave 4 people, and Santa is coming to town. Higher lows ……
Money flow was -161 last hr and now it is -50. The selloff looks to have tapered off? Above 1 day VWAP on all indices.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
Any news causing this late date surge?
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
opps…late day surge? Auto bailout? Or some other crap?
woo, you nailed this action today. Hats off to you.
Wow. Guess I better get long into the close. This thing is blowing thru trendlines like a knife thru butter.
Observation:
We’re back to rallying on the last hour again. It’s the only way the market can keep its gain.
it could bounce off the high and start dropping. we’ll see when it gets there.
The SPY could stay in this $82 —$86 range for awhile before we get some direction.
volume is still really low. the resistance has always been around the 845-847 past two days, elliot wave still intact as long as we don’t pass this point.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
woo, if your EW count is correct, where do you see us right now? TIA
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
intraday 3 wave up (3 of the 2). with a downard 5 wave coming up soon. it works perfect with the overall EW that has it going downward after a rise up today. i got in more puts.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Coupla excellent calls today.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
i think we’re seeing the beginning of the 5 wave down. should be a good amount of selloffs till market open. i still think we’re breaking below 820 within the next day or two.
It would be so easy for the PPT to manipulate the market when the volume is so low, as it has been through much of the day…
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
PPT…not today. No banks are at risk.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:16 pm
PPT, or the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, doesn’t truly exist to solely prop up the banks or the market at large. The whole point of the behind-the-scenes manipulation, in concert with the the most connected MMs, is to squeeze as much profit out of the larger, unconnected market as possible, without pushing so far as to bring about the destruction of the very system that affords the true insiders such spectacular returns. It is like a fixed poker game, where the cheater is very discreet in playing his secret advantage.
Such things, history, life, all make much clearer sense when one accepts that governments, at least as how they have existed in human history, regardless of what forms they have been claimed to have been, do not act in the interest of a given nation or its wider populace, but rather that they do primarily to preserve and increase the power of the most well-connected among the rulers. The administration, Paulson, Bernanke, et al, are not failing to “save the economy” because they are incompetent. They are absolutely spectacular at dispatching their true intentions, which is to oversee the greatest transfer of wealthy upwards in the history of mankind. Similarly, the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan are not disasters because the ruler are incompetent; on the contrary, these incursions have been spectacularly lucrative for those profiting from them, who benefit most from the prolonging of the crises.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:19 pm
“It is like a fixed poker game, where the cheater is very discreet in playing his secret advantage,” and where the rest of the players at the table, who are being so discreetly but nevertheless handsomely swindled by the cheater, have been socialized and indoctrinated to believe that such a thing as cheating couldn’t possibly happen.
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:22 pm
“They are absolutely spectacular at dispatching their true intentions, which is to oversee the greatest transfer of wealthy upwards in the history of mankind.”
“Wealthy” s/b “wealth.”
December 2nd, 2008 at 8:38 pm
“…do not act in the interest of a given nation or its wider populace, but rather that they do primarily to preserve and increase the power of the most well-connected among the rulers.”
“…but rather that they do primarily to…” s/b “…but rather they do primarily to…”
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Somebody drew a line in the sand at ES 819. Then the market rockets up 30 minutes later for what reason? What was the news. Look at the chart of the dow Looks like a wall up at about 2:45.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:01 pm
What’s the PPT???
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
The mythical Plunge Protection Team that doesn’t exist except in the minds of shorts when they happen to call the market wrong and wish to blame someone other than themselves.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:20 pm
http://www.opednews.com/articles/All-Is-Well-in-Stepfordvil-by-Ellen-Brown-081103-575.html
One thing is for sure – we did not get the secong large distribution day after yesterday. My SKF is getting abused, but will add more when market confirms direction. Glad it was a small position. Bad but – impulsive and reckless based on emotion and nothing TA related. BAD, BAD, BAD decision making. In the long run it should be fine, but the pain in the meantime sucks.
flare for everyone to see.
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Ha. Now that is a keying error. If it was real I would have crapped my pants.
Idan, Great call at 3:24
3:24pm
The market is rallying on strong volume, retesting the $84 resistance. Again, as a bear of this market, i am not necessarily panicking out of my swing trades yet, I still feel like this consolidation will yeild more downside.
There was a head fake with a new highs in SPY and XLF. I almost closed some of my financial shorts. Still holding…
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Forgetting that still 7 minutes left in the trading day, I spoke too soon. Regardless, great call till 3:53 PM.
i think we’ll close around 837, which is the vwap is that correct? then we should see lots of down. i got great positions today on the peaks with my puts. EW looks good so far, if gannfann is right about the 770 support, we could be in for quite a ride…
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
hahah awesome day, awesome profits
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Wave 3 finished on the 21st. You can lose a lot of money thinking it hasn’t. Divergences indicate we are now correcting wave 3.
FAS vs FAZ 7%differential
woah there…
The 5th wave of this rally is completing now. This sets tomorrow up for a selloff
December 2nd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
I sure hope so….because I really just got hurt on that rally……wow.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:02 pm
me too ouch, very much ouch
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
hmm…so you’re seeing it as a bull wave? tomorrow should be really interesting. wondering how big the drop is really going to be. that last minute rally was out of left field and quick.
Wow, another humble pie today. Got me a slice…
closed above 8400 and 840 no conformation of break down yet… lets c 2marrow
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
i want to say bear trap by MM on the light volume near market close. EW is still fine. yeah there’s no telling in this market till the next day.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Light volume???? It was MASSIVE.
Consider that Wave 3 may have finished on the 21st. You can lose a lot of money thinking it hasn’t. Divergences indicate we are now correcting wave 3 and could run to 1060 or so from here.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:26 pm
woo;
I am looking at vol for SPY and it looks like they vol was higher today on the upside compared to yesterday on the downside.
which vol are you looking at?
thanks for the update on EW today
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
i was looking at the wrong volume. apologies on that.
in terms of divergence, i don’t think we’re ready for a correction yet. the movement needs to be a lot higher over the previous high in order for a confirmed correction. there’s a chance this might happen tomorrow. volume did increase on the buys as opposed to the sells, but i don’t think it was the push that was needed just yet (i could be wrong).
even IF we were to go into correction, in that case we should open tomorrow well above the 847 mark. and then shoot a 3 wave down back to 847, giving people time to get our of their shorts/puts with little or no loss before a possible larger 5 wave up.
right now i’ve got puts and still feel pretty good about them. thanks for the input schweizer, you may very well be right.
Schweizer135, good call on divergences.
On a personal note, I got humbled by the market again today by being too slow to react.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
I don’t know how one would react to this kind of action – very crazy day – all my yesterdays gains are lost and losing time on options.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:23 pm
I lost most of my gains.. i took some off at the double formation at around 82.50, but i also recharts my PUTS at the end of the day a little, and will look to add more around 86 ish. My outlook in general remains bearish for this next week as of yet.
December 2nd, 2008 at 4:34 pm
One of the whippiest days I’ve seen in a while.
I think this was event driven….word got out late in the day about the Auto bailout/Pelosi news conference. The big boys are always privy to this info b4 it hits the wire….
Hello all. Dow to test R9100 on 50dma tomorrow, and then we sit and wait for direction.
Money outflow for SPY today…so looks like more selling into the rally.
10am EST: SPY -110 million outflow
11am EST: SPY -112 million outflow
12pm EST: SPY -161 million outflow
1pm EST: SPY -150 million outflow
2pm EST: SPY missed this one
3pm EST: SPY -50 million outflow
4pm EST: SPY -224 million outflow
December 2nd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Very good information to see, thanks Surage.
Surage,
where are you getting this data from?
December 2nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Charlie:
See link below:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:50 pm
This is cumulative with $573.32 UP and $851.84 DOWN for a net of $-278.52.
Not sure how meaningful it is or how it compares to a normal day.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:37 pm
What is relevant is the delta of the moves.
Here’s an interview yesterday with Tony C. and John Grant.
http://www.cyclesman.info/Articles.htm
Dumbpainter… I have to eat my slice of humble pie this afternoon. called a selloff, couldn’t have been more wrong.
Schw….your viewpoint is very interesting. How do you think this contrast with the huge Money outflow today as a direction tomorrow?
I thank you for your response in advance.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:44 pm
See my latest BLOG post.
December 2nd, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Also see my post above on outflow.
December 2nd, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Thank you. Hard to believe that we could go up that far; however, I am a seriously mentally warped on the downside. I can’t even bring my self to long, ever. I just sit it out and wait for the short entry point. So, far that has worked but always looking to avoid getting short too early.
Interview with Tony C on Yorba t.v. today
http://www.yorba.tv/archive-2008-12-116-1-start.htm