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20
Nov
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11:50am
I will have to step out for today, but I do see an inverse head and shoulders developing, however the move higher is on light volume. The best advice I can give you, is to probably watch what the market does today, it’s a Friday and it can be very volatile. I feel more confident going short longer term, but i know we’re also overdue for a bounce.
11:06 am
No bottom for market in sight, market hitting new lows at 742 S&P.
10:01am
I have a really hard time seeing this market continue to fall, it needs a counter trend rally towards fibonacci retracements in order to keep this fall going. I have not added shorts back, I am waiting on this one.
9:55am
Craig: ES 10m: 200MA important resistance
Thursday Night, 10:00 pm
Hey guys. In preparation for a potential bounce tomorrow, I have covered my shorts after hours. One thing to look at tomorrow is Fibonacci retracements, I believe adding to your shorts at the 50% level, and maybe (if we get there) the 61.8% retracement levels will be a great way to play the markets.
60 minute SPY ETF
How are you guys playing this market?
this H&S, if play out, will take us down at least to the 2nd support level
November 21st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
sorry, 1st support level.
lol
Kenny just posted could be wave 4 triangle.
Board is quiet. 100 posts and its noon?
November 21st, 2008 at 1:57 pm
oops 186. So we are inline to do our usual 300 plus
neckline crossed
wow! what a volume on ES
FWIW aapl just broke into a new low…and is sinking fast…
C cannot find any support there is 0 faith it seems that it will recover.
volume still not that great, might hit new lows if this keeps up…what a day…
Well, either this is a rally or the RS. Both LS and H are bigger than the inverse one earlier, and the RS is probably gonna be bigger as well, if it pans out, I’m guessin. Also, the neckline would be on a downtrend. Could be interesting.
Breakdown on the Es was a small H&S formation playing out. Bulls shut that one down immediately.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
WOW -check out the gap on the VIX that the H&S breakout left. It got covered immediately. PPT? That looked like a big move that got snuffed out immediately.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:13 pm
like a 125bps gap left in a minute. That is not normal. Very strange.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Good point, although, if the market decides to play out the H&S scenario, the point where you say the bulls snuffed it out could still be part of the head, which gives us the RS right now, with a huge downtrending neckline.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Hmmm, width of RS could be wider, with more separation from head… So may be not yet another self-fulfilling chart pattern, then.
leys see if we can get over the middle of the w
10 and 5-yr. bonds have recovered quite a bit, especially the 5. FWIW.
neckline crossed again!
volume picking up a little bit…
Trading at the 50% retrace from daily high to low. The last downdraft was stopped at the 78.6 retrace.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Testing daily VWAP again at 758
I’m getting very bullish here…something just doesn’t seem quite right. Citigroup has a tangible book value of $5/share (I’m very close to someone who works there) and is trading at $3 and change. Even if they liquidated everything this weekend and they peeled off their asset management division, sold their deposits to JPM, etc, shareholders would still have positive equity.
I think that this market might be just overshooting like it usually does. It IS possible for favorable news to come out of Citigroup, and the monster rally could come from an unforeseen catalyst just like this.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:26 pm
You could be right, but the book value is only as good as the accuracy of the valuation of assets by C’s mgmt. Don’t know about you, but I don’t have the highest level of trust in, what I consider to be, these crooks.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:34 pm
I think that may be some unfair judgment. Anyone who took out a $300,000 mortgage that makes $30K a year is just as big as a crook as these people who didn’t have anyone compliant in their risk management dept.
That aside, this is a firesale. The asset management division of Citi alone is probably worth more than the market cap of the stock if you discount the future cash flows. Even if they have something left under the hood that this market doesn’t understand yet, we are SO close to having perfect information. There’s only so much more bad news that can come out before people get tired of being scared.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
*competent, not complaint…i’m a moron
November 21st, 2008 at 2:38 pm
C dropped another 30+ cents since this post hehe. scary~~ hit new lows
how was the volume on that push?
November 21st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
low
If the market plays out this H&S, we would still be in the RS, and now it’s got the breadth.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Looking @ neckline target about ~743-ish. If mkt. plays it out.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Well, hit right at neckline, and then BOINGGG.
But bond yields shooting up.
VIX climbing a trendline since 12:45. It it breaks I’ll let you know. Just chugin up the hill. Large divergencd on the MACD, but no buyers to make the turn happen.
If you look at the monthly VIX – there is no hope for a turn anytime soon, BUT the divergance is so large that when it does turn the rally will be very positive. Just thought I would bring that into play.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
I found this funny!
Somali Pirates in Discussions to Acquire Citigroup
By Andreas Hippin
November 20 (Bloomberg) — The Somali pirates, renegade Somalis known for hijacking ships for ransom in the Gulf of Aden, are negotiating a purchase of Citigroup.
The pirates would buy Citigroup with new debt and their existing cash stockpiles, earned most recently from hijacking numerous ships, including most recently a $200 million Saudi Arabian oil tanker. The Somali pirates are offering up to $0.10 per share for Citigroup, pirate spokesman Sugule Ali said earlier today. The negotiations have entered the final stage, Ali said.
“You may not like our price, but we are not in the business of paying for things. Be happy we are in the mood to
offer the shareholders anything,” said Ali.
The pirates will finance part of the purchase by selling new Pirate Ransom Backed Securities. The PRBS’s are backed by the cash flows from future ransom payments from hijackings in the Gulf of Aden. Moody’s and S&P have already issued their top investment grade ratings for the PRBS’s.
Head pirate, Ubu Kalid Shandu, said: “We need a bank so that we have a place to keep all of our ransom money. Thankfully, the dislocations in the capital markets has allowed us to purchase Citigroup
at an attractive valuation and to take advantage of TARP capital to grow the business even faster.”
Shandu added, “We don’t call ourselves pirates. We are coastguards and this will just allow us to guard our coasts better.”
*CITI IN TALKS WITH SOMALI PIRATES FOR POSSIBLE CAPITAL INFUSION
*WILL REQUIRE ALL CITI EMPLOYEES TO WEAR PATCH OVER ONE EYE
*SOMALIAN PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP
*PAULSON: TARP PIRATE EQUITY IS AN `INVESTMENT,’ WILL PAY OFF
*KASHKARI SAYS `SOMALI PIRATES ARE ‘FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND’ ‘
*Moody’s upgrade Somali Pirates to AAA
*HUD SAYS SOMALI DHOW FORECLOSURE PROGRAM HAD `VERY LOW’ PARTICPATION
*SOMALI PIRATES IN DISCUSSION TO ACQUIRE CITIBANK
*FED OFFICIALS: AGGRESSIVE EASING WOULD CUT SOMALI PIRATE RISK
* FED AGREED OCT. 29 TO TAKE `WHATEVER STEPS’ NEEDED FOR SOMALI PIRATES
November 21st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
thanks for letting us know!
I do not like the way the MACD and the RSI is setting up on the 30 and 15m charts. Not at all. Do not get excited and expect a rally. Just my opinion – I hope I am wrong and the buyers come back from their extended vacation.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:33 pm
VIX charts.
C setting new lows. Looks like a repeat from yesterday into oblivion.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Toasted. The pirate news was hard on shareholders.
If Citi goes under this weekend, tax payers are going to be so pissed that their $25B went to waste.
If VIX moves to 78 watch out. If it holds 77 there is hope, but I am not counting on it.
lol…just wasted $60 on 5 SSO Nov20 calls. Can’t help myself…
November 21st, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Time for you to come out now Mr. Gasparino…lol…
C going over the cliff market likely to follow.
approaching 1st support line again
the biggest volume stick just been produced on ES
November 21st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
so far today, of course
OK somone got fat fingers and threw a down flare on the VIX that went all the way down to 68. 9pts in 1m to go witht the gap that it threw out a little while ago – strange stuff happening.
aapl and goog went to crap. H&S shot. volume not great. i think we’re heading even lower…timberrrr…
“the biggest volume stick just been produced on ES”
What is “ES” I see it mentioned here all the time?
Thanks In Advance
November 21st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
ESZ8 is the symbol for S&P futures expiring in December. People do TA on this because it trades overnight.
Citigroup is really worthless?
Does anyone know what is going on with Citi? Just jumped 40 cents in like 10 mins.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:49 pm
it’s not citi, it’s just the whole market went up a bit.
I thought we would fall down almighty blue and we have. I do not like the VIX set up and all of the trendline testing at the bottom.
707
694
and get this – 666 – I don’t even like typing that number.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
can you throw up a link to your current blue channel chart ?
November 21st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
i agree. if it dips one more time, it could break support, and i wouldn’t be surprised if it did.
Pirates to buy Citi Group?? Sry couldn’t resist
November 21st, 2008 at 2:52 pm
They have enough ranson money now. How much is Citi worth? Anything possible.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:58 pm
lol
November 21st, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Pirates wouldn’t be that stupid…
So 5 and 10 treasuries plummeting again.
Looks like PPT may be in play again. Really want to keep 7,500.
can anyone say rally
November 21st, 2008 at 3:00 pm
no.
Bulls have surpringsly held the market together. If they don’t make a move soon, the bears will take this sucker down in one quick swoop. No TA, fundamentals, just my 2cts.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Pushing through VWAP again. Final hr guys.
Bonds and vix saying rally in the bag…lol…
I’ve $60 long, and about $50K shorts but I am crying, yelling, screaming for a big rally…lol…
November 21st, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Sold 3 calls for $120…still have 2 calls left..lol…
Looks like SKFers were seeing the big H&S, too. Right at 2:43, when SPX hit neckline of 743, SKF hit its all-time high. Didn’t quite work out for them, though…
Obama names treasury sec: geithner. Something to rally on??
VIX may actually be trying to go south. I’ll let you know. ES trying to form a little green worm possibly. I do not trust it, but we’ll see.
gold moving opposite of commodifies in the past 2 days
So Geitner rallys his PPT team around the mkt.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Geitner announced. Simultaneously $ floods into mkt. Coincidence? Perhaps.
VIX broke trendline.
market breaking out…
VIX breaking down.
is volume strong enough?
Is this wave 5 (4) 5? I think Daneric may have nailed this again…said it would start at around 730