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20
Nov
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11:50am
I will have to step out for today, but I do see an inverse head and shoulders developing, however the move higher is on light volume. The best advice I can give you, is to probably watch what the market does today, it’s a Friday and it can be very volatile. I feel more confident going short longer term, but i know we’re also overdue for a bounce.
11:06 am
No bottom for market in sight, market hitting new lows at 742 S&P.
10:01am
I have a really hard time seeing this market continue to fall, it needs a counter trend rally towards fibonacci retracements in order to keep this fall going. I have not added shorts back, I am waiting on this one.
9:55am
Craig: ES 10m: 200MA important resistance
Thursday Night, 10:00 pm
Hey guys. In preparation for a potential bounce tomorrow, I have covered my shorts after hours. One thing to look at tomorrow is Fibonacci retracements, I believe adding to your shorts at the 50% level, and maybe (if we get there) the 61.8% retracement levels will be a great way to play the markets.
60 minute SPY ETF
How are you guys playing this market?
Testing daily VWAP resistance at 759.
November 21st, 2008 at 11:52 am
Run up on weaker volume…still in cash…
Stock MaxPain Price Diff % Diff
c 15.00 3.93 11.07 73.80%
gs 80.00 51.96 28.04 35.05%
bac 17.50 10.79 6.71 38.34%
gm 10.00 2.91 7.09 70.90%
f 4.00 1.36 2.64 66.00%
goog 360.00 257.50 102.50 28.47%
aapl 95.00 81.94 13.06 13.75%
msft 21.00 18.61 2.39 11.38%
jpm 40.00 21.08 18.92 47.30%
x 35.00 23.07 11.93 34.09%
xom 75.00 70.20 4.80 6.40%
rig 70.00 53.61 16.39 23.41%
mer 15.00 7.56 7.44 49.60%
November 21st, 2008 at 12:01 pm
I think you may have used DEC numbers. I noticed the optionspain site is defaulting in DEC for the month now. You will have to select Nov.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:15 pm
TYVM – I’ll fix that.
Tested daily VWAP again but volume just hasn’t been there. Lingering between 50MA and VWAP. I’m guessing that at some point the market will push over the VWAP on higher volume and start a tedious ascent, and then make a major move up in the late afternoon.
Key levels:
1 day VWAP at 759
2 day VWAP at 795.. We have bounced are heads on this lvl all week
VIX’s got a double support thing going on at some converging trendlines I have. I expect further weakness near term. If VIX can break trendline then there is nothing to stop it till 67. Let’s hope for that. I’m not calling it – just wishing for it.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Which dates are your VIX trendlines. My near-term trendline through the lows of 11/14, 11/19 is close to breaking. Longer term from 11/4 through 11/14 seems to have support at 71. Also looks like a H&S on the 1 day.
Consolidating at 1 day VWAP… 760.. nvmm broke it
are we bullish or bearish intraday?
I am a student but I see an inverse H&S on the S&P & by the head & neckline if it pans out a potential run to 781?
Right or wrong?
Thanks
November 21st, 2008 at 11:48 am
Yes u are right. 782/785. There is also overhead resistance there as well from the 61.8 FIB from yesterdays highs to lows. I will tighten up my stops around that area. Im using sso
November 21st, 2008 at 11:54 am
1day VWAP on ES at 759 along with inverse H&S neckline. A break could send us to 780
November 21st, 2008 at 12:17 pm
yep, I’m an idiot, but see this and a flag pole on ES 1min. too.
Regarding options, I’m sure many of you know that there are various strategies with options. But a simple one for an option writer is to sell/write puts or calls. For example, take next months expiration write a few options a couple hundred points out of the money on an index. This works especially well when the volatility is high because it inflates the premium at the time. Then multiple things work for the writer. After two weeks, time weighs on the options, the volatility decreases, and even if that index has moved 10 % towards the OTM strike price the option will have declined in price. Then the writer can come in and buy the option for a depressed price canceling the original position. With a 10k position(the money the option purchaser pays the writer upfront), I would say the average conservative profit is 60 %. It works even better if you write a put call spread. The downside is that the risk is unlimited. The point is that the smart option writer doesn’t need to wait until the end of expiration to make money. I get the feeling that many think that people write options and then just wait it out. Therefore, the Working Group/PPT, large stock holders or whomever do not necessarily need to come in and buy the market to wipe out the put holders. Though I would agree that there are many strategies that are used to move the market because of options, but not just on the put side. I hope that helps.
I’m not gonna say what the VIX looks like as it tests support again.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:19 pm
H&S on VIX?
November 21st, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I did not say it, but yes.
VIX breaking support.
another flare
November 21st, 2008 at 12:21 pm
tiny one.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:22 pm
that one looks convincing, let’s see if the computer programs start up.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Dude.. Just for clarification.. Whats a flare represent.. A shift in momentum?
November 21st, 2008 at 12:37 pm
pre-mature ejaculation.
I hope the VIX threw out a small bear flag and will continue down.
Updated Maxpain numbers for november.
Stock MaxPain Price Diff % Diff
c 12.50 3.93 8.57 68.56%
gs 80.00 51.96 28.04 35.05%
bac 25.00 10.79 14.21 56.84%
gm 5.00 2.91 2.09 41.80%
f 3.00 1.36 1.64 54.67%
goog 300.00 257.50 42.50 14.17%
aapl 95.00 81.94 13.06 13.75%
msft 22.00 18.61 3.39 15.41%
jpm 37.50 21.08 16.42 43.79%
x 35.00 23.07 11.93 34.09%
xom 70.00 70.20 (0.20) -0.29%
rig 75.00 53.61 21.39 28.52%
mer 15.00 7.56 7.44 49.60%
November 21st, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Looks like we’re consolidating for a move higher.
Still very much in the channel that is obvious on the 10min 4 day S&P… I don’t see what can cause enough momentum to break to the upside of it.
Sorry for the double post – sorted it for better reading
Stock MaxPain Price Diff % Diff
xom 70.00 70.20 (0.20) -0.29%
aapl 95.00 81.94 13.06 13.75%
goog 300.00 257.50 42.50 14.17%
msft 22.00 18.61 3.39 15.41%
rig 75.00 53.61 21.39 28.52%
x 35.00 23.07 11.93 34.09%
gs 80.00 51.96 28.04 35.05%
gm 5.00 2.91 2.09 41.80%
jpm 37.50 21.08 16.42 43.79%
mer 15.00 7.56 7.44 49.60%
f 3.00 1.36 1.64 54.67%
bac 25.00 10.79 14.21 56.84%
c 12.50 3.93 8.57 68.56%
whats up with the inverted hs is going to play out
November 21st, 2008 at 12:31 pm
stalled, I’m out for now.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:32 pm
i’m in…that was silly.
VIX might be on the verge of a larger turn down. Let’s hope I am right. This may be a good time to take a shot at a long with a tight stop.
If it breaks back above the daily VWAP with conviction (volume) I’m in on SSO for the ride up.
Past the daily VWAP. 2 day VWAP at 785
Short covering in the final hour may be what’s in store. Watch ‘em lock in some nice profits.
If I weren’t so skeptical of any rally, I would say that UYG is a screaming bargain right now. Down far more than SKF is up. Down far more than even FAS.
November 21st, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Never mind. “Previous close” $ # on my platform out of whack…
Thanks, Surage, for the VWAP updates.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:49 pm
No problem. I like this consolidation areas. I feel a rally is in the making. I had a position in GOOG, still holding and may add if GOOG breaks its VWAP. It hasnt as off yet but getting close. I don’t intend to hold any positions over the weekend.
Drawing a line from yesterday mornings low to this morning high puts the spx needing to cross 770 for any magic to happen.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Out of my FAS for the cost of my broker fee , don’t see enough umph in the push.
November 21st, 2008 at 12:51 pm
C is riding an upward trendline very weakly. I think it’s going to break it at some point today and lead the market lower.
FWIW, although up for much of the day, bond yields have been falling for the past 20 minutes.
It appears that you cannot short SSO, SDS, QLD or QID. In other words, SSO and QLD have to be used if you want to go long instead of shorting SDS or QID. Can someone confirm this ?
flare again!
Remember – buyers have been absent. They have to show up. There should theoretically be some hunger down here, but overriding deflationary environment may continue to trump the bulls.
Let’s hope VIX is forming yet another bear flag. It should be. Support is a ways away.
hammer time qqqq?
C is pushing threw it’s trend line.
we’ve seen many points this week where it should start to rally but hasn’t because of low volume. looks to me like this might turn out to be another one of those days…
VIX movig up out of a falling wedge – hopefully a bear flag.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:06 pm
VIX has 100ma and a support/resistance line above it at 75ish. Let’s hope it turn there. This would be a good test.
inverted hs still intack let see what plays out
November 21st, 2008 at 1:07 pm
the intraday inverse H+S is bigger
November 21st, 2008 at 12:42 pm
post the chart of social…
Last run up and pullback on weaker volume (compared to the 1st hr of trading)…
To dangerous to be long over the weekend , buyers don’t believe in the rally and if they do they are terrified of buying and holding. Finacial sector despite the constant injections and bailouts is collapsing.
I am beginning to think the only safe play is to counter the end of day. Buy in the last couple minutes if the market sells off , and buy shot if it rallies into the close.
High volume on cheap options expiring today is locking all the indecies into a tight range. Nothing will move big today and the only winners are those doing index arbitrage.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:28 pm
Correction: After 3 PM, most options will have been exercised and anything is possible-probably up.
VIX is setting up a rally, I just don’t know if it will be today or not.
Testing the daily VWAP. I’m mildly bullish that we see an afternoon rally.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
3 test of the VWAP and we broke above. Ran up and pullbacked fast under the VWAP. Testing it again. There are buyers but just more sellers
maybe waiting for 2 oclock
AU, AEM, KGC… gold stocks and emerging markets(EEM and FXI) are moving very well today!
i give the spx one more climb to finish off a short term bear penant and dip even lower… especially with this horrible volume. i’m still bear. got puts on it.
yet another flare right around 13:15. last one was right at 13:00
November 21st, 2008 at 1:42 pm
can you explain what a flare is?
Here’s some interesting comments from Citi I just received.
Dow theory says that the Dow Jones transport index is the key to market direction in the DJIA
As a consequence it is worth looking at some important levels.
The double top formed with the break of 4,032 had a target of 2,900-3,000. The low so far is 2,929.
The 200-MONTH moving average comes in at 2,912. When the transports hit their low in March 2003 it came in at 1,905 and the low posted was 1,918.
The long-term trend line on the log chart off the 1987 and 2003 low comes in at 2,850.
While this range holds there remains the potential of a platform for a bounce. A move below this range would open up the danger of an extended fall towards the 2003 low at 1,918.
C is the big wild card in this market until there’s some resolution to it’s perceived failure.
I have a feeling that this market is going to make a mad dash on the up side during the last 1 or 2 hrs on news of a rumor that there’s a viable Citi’s resolution going into this weekend. It looks like this is the only way for the market to rally.
CNBC to the rescue with its crazy wild rumors!!!
November 21st, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Ha ha. Charlie will come out with a new story from his sources…
a suggestion for craig or one of the other admins
can we have a section at the top of the page that shows numbers we should be watching for the day and it can be periodically updated.
for example, support, resistance, vwap, MA, etc
what do you guys think?
November 21st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Great idea.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:42 pm
second that
November 21st, 2008 at 1:47 pm
I third for that…great idea!!! Something of a graph like that guy SP500Trader’s on youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/user/SnP500Trader
Also, how about our own readers’ bearish/bullish percentage indicator?
Vis setting up to fall a little if it holds trenline and spits out of wedge like it should.
November 21st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
can u post the chart on social?
November 21st, 2008 at 2:00 pm
It appears to be bucking the trend. I’ll post it if it works, but VIX making an unexpected move up above the trendline with power.
FWIW, 5 and 10-yr. bond yields falling pretty hard.
Also, for those who like H&S patterns, we just finished a big, fat head, and are just missing the RS.
down trend is reconfirmed by the 15min/8+ma
Very interesting, to say the least. Worth a couple of minutes to see:
Former Regulator: Clear Fraud in Financial Crisis — Why Isn’t Anyone in Jail?
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/133224/Former-Regulator-Clear-Fraud-in-Financial-Crisis—-Why-Isn%27t-Anyone-in-Jail?tickers=BAC,WM,CFC,XLF,JPM
H&S to come?
Reverse H&S pushed us up into a H&S. Now, will the H&S push us down into another reverse H&S? There is just enough time for one more of these, so maybe the next reverse H&S will push us way way up into the close.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:18 pm
nailed it!