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20
Nov
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11:50am
I will have to step out for today, but I do see an inverse head and shoulders developing, however the move higher is on light volume. The best advice I can give you, is to probably watch what the market does today, it’s a Friday and it can be very volatile. I feel more confident going short longer term, but i know we’re also overdue for a bounce.
11:06 am
No bottom for market in sight, market hitting new lows at 742 S&P.
10:01am
I have a really hard time seeing this market continue to fall, it needs a counter trend rally towards fibonacci retracements in order to keep this fall going. I have not added shorts back, I am waiting on this one.
9:55am
Craig: ES 10m: 200MA important resistance
Thursday Night, 10:00 pm
Hey guys. In preparation for a potential bounce tomorrow, I have covered my shorts after hours. One thing to look at tomorrow is Fibonacci retracements, I believe adding to your shorts at the 50% level, and maybe (if we get there) the 61.8% retracement levels will be a great way to play the markets.
60 minute SPY ETF
How are you guys playing this market?
Hit the 23.6 retracement and got slammed back. Let’s see if it can make it to the 38.2% at 795 or the 50% at 811.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I’ve got Wave 3 5 (3) starting at 882 and ending at 741.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:21 pm
it won’t cause I bought long , anytime I do that it instantly turns south
November 21st, 2008 at 3:23 pm
I say it makes it to 795.
These MMs are so “clever.” Right at 2: 43, right at the neckline of the H&S that they set up, everything hit its trough, and then the the PPT floods the mkt.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:29 pm
“It’s good to be the king.”
November 21st, 2008 at 3:36 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGAgu6zI9v0
ES went right up to VWAP at 774 and then came off.
There is a bull flag, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this fail like the other 90% of them over the past few days. Now that I think that, maybe this one will be different…
775 is the 1 day VWAP. 785 is the 2 day VWAP. All the past recent rallies have never closed over the 1 day VWAP. This is a critical level, I’m watching. We are trading over the daily VWAP. Also crossed a trendline from (11/20) and consolidating on it.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:31 pm
I’ve got 759 as the daily VWAP. Hmmm….
November 21st, 2008 at 3:37 pm
me 2
November 21st, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I have 774 for 1 day VWAP.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Hit the 2 day VWAP and selling.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Let’s talk about this after the market close.
If ES takes out 780 we’re headed north.
huge flare!
November 21st, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Dude, stop with the stupid flare nonsense. Those are just data spikes they don’t mean anything.
can we close above 8000
796, 825, 866
Got to find buyers though.
Is this Tony C’s rogue rally come true finally ?
November 21st, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I don’t know about a rogue rally coming. I do know Tony C is a rogue trader.
Funny how Geitner news is announced an hour before close on opex Friday
bigger inverted hs could play out
Made it to 793 so far (close to 38.2% retracement). If Daneric is right on his waves (he nailed it today), then Monday we head down for Wave 5 of 5 of (3). His projections take us to 700. Lots of reasons to think he is right (Black Monday LOL). I may buy and hold some SDS over the weekend.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:46 pm
I’m remembering BMF’s warning about Wave 5’s – they can be nasty and truncate with a hard reversal. Gotta be nimble if playing short on Monday. Market may have already turned to Wave 5 down in these last minutes.
I’m not going long anything. The SDS idea is tempting, but I’m not into the swing thing. I tend to get burnt anticipating. Continuing a trend is one thing.
Treasuries have not budged with this PPT infusion.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Yes, I see the irony in that statement.
2 day VWAP at 791 now.
Would you get out of any long positions today? Opinions?
November 21st, 2008 at 3:50 pm
it could go up more on monday before dropping, or it could drop on monday. i might just wait till monday before taking a position though…this friday and this coming monday are going to be weird days…not to say this market has been normal..
November 21st, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Absolutely yes. Lots of stock being put to put writers – heavy selling may occur on Monday.
Ty,
treasuries stop trading @ 3pm each day. That was when the PPT went to work.
November 21st, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Right. Thx.
what does market breadth look like today?
market just past previous highs intraday
Gonna need some more room on my 1m ES chart at this rate.
canwe stay above 8000
You guys think this rally has the legs to get Tony C’s targets? it looks like his rally came eventually, even though it looks very manipulated.
November 21st, 2008 at 4:14 pm
even a stopped clock is right twice a day…put more faith in your own opinions
November 21st, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Agreed, Tony C.’s just a talking head like the rest of us.
November 21st, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Older but wiser. (They got de-listed.)
I went short Qs via puts at close. Kenny had comment that he was looking for point to short today. Will be interesting to check his charts this weekend to see if he did. Daneric originally called for the opex rally in his post here, then changed his mind in SKF message today stating markets were going to tank after 230pm.
Trading range for next week 800-850…900 would be a gift from trading gods.
Great opportunity to add more shorts (or new shorts)…we’re are going to have a few prelim-retail sales for Xmas, and talking heads will spin it into “it’s a terrible season for retails, but it’s much better than expected…”
I’ve seen lots discounts on electronics and others…it’s very difficult to pass up on these bargains…
perfect set up for a black monday.
November 21st, 2008 at 5:24 pm
It doesn’t have to be Monday…it could be Tuesday
November 21st, 2008 at 6:17 pm
No way on Thanksgiving week…
One thing the market always respect is the important Holidays…
maybbe this rally was the kiss of death…sell into any weakness
I think we saw a double bottom today boys.
Up fom here.
November 21st, 2008 at 5:42 pm
funny, you could say we had two fake-outs or a failed H+S or a successful inverse H+S…
If that is a double bottom, is it a BIG one or just a daily reversal…if it is big, what is the number for retracement? Three days? A week?
bullish until proven wrong….holdin goog over the wkend
Comments from GS.
NY ROUNDUP – Friday, November 21, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
NBC: Obama to tap NY FED Geithner for US Treasury Secretary
US House Speaker Pelosi: Willing to give automakers deal if they show a plan
Chicago FED Evans: US in “substantial” downturn
Philadelphia FED Plosser: Housing to bottom next year
FED Lacker: Primary goal is keeping money stable
COMMENTS
Let’s not be concerned about why equities rallied back today – but just enjoy the moment. S&P500 up 6.3% to 800, oil up $1 or 2% to $50.45, USD down about 0.5% to DXY 88.19, bonds down 30Y off 4 points, yield up 21 bps to 4.30%; 10Y 3.21%, 2Y 1.09%. The manic depression that has spread from the banks to over the real economy needs a break. Towards that end we did get Obama leaking his Treasury pick NY FED Giethner to calm markets. If that is all it takes lets get a few more leaks please. This all has a tender balance to it – we needed a rally but not too much or government actions assumed will be delayed – like Goldilocks picking the porridge. Further the bears will be watching this weekend’s headlines. Not all of the stories to track over the weekend will be bad – and having had another miserable week its best to think about the future. 1) APEC summit. Picture the lame-duck Bush with Rice in Lima. The chance for anything positive seems small but there are big issues – consider how the oil price drop has squeezed the finances of Ecuador, Venezuela. Consider the pressure on trade and trade barriers – as Russia moved to restrict foreign autos Monday. Consider the devaluation of FX and its impact – KRW, INR. Plenty of things to discuss in Peru. 2) Citigroup. The WSJ, NY Times, and almost any other new agency has filled pages with speculation. What happens on Sunday matters – many expect either a merger or an AIG like bailout. Most also fear more equity dilution, more toxic assets dumped into the FED balance sheet. 3) Latvia. The rumors about the Baltics have been going on for weeks. The chance of another Iceland has been the fear and many think this will come to a head this weekend. SEK weakness was the proxy for Baltic pain. The 10.59 close in EUR/SEK reflects much has already been priced. 4) Rate cuts. Expect the market to lock in on PBOC and talk of 150 bps easing. Expect more from Asian central banks, more stimulus from Europe. More talk about the FOMC and quantitative easing. 5) Autos. The car business is under the microscope not just in the US but globally. Expect more talk of fiscal support from Canada, Europe, even Asia, but most people will see headlines from Congress and the Big 3 pushing their agenda for a “bridge loan” Most see something coming in December now post Pelosi comments, but sooner the better. 6) Month end. Grey Thanksgiving, Black Friday. Next week will also bring month-end, the start of holiday shopping, a GDP revision, the usual month-end flows, more fears of hedge fund redemptions. The biggest story may be the fears of how bad retail sales will be in the holiday. Estimates have been -10% to -25%. Bottom line: This was a welcome rally back in risk assets that matched the bounce overnight in Asia. The move is predicated on future actions – so the size of the move today has to be just right – not too much to let officials off the hook for their panic but just enough to soothe the fear of the market so that Monday won’t be the reverse of today. FX closes with this in mind – EUR 1.2570; JPY 97.80; AUD .6310; CAD 1.2770 – all are stuck in the weekly ranges closer to mean rather than the tail.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2436 1.2638 Close: 1.2505
USD/JPY 94.44 95.98 Close: 95.28
EUR/JPY 118.00 120.76 Close: 119.15
GBP/USD 1.4702 1.5060 Close: 1.4779
EUR/GBP 0.8370 0.8507 Close: .8461
USD/CHF 1.2175 1.2293 Close: 1.2240
EUR/CHF 1.5282 1.5419 Close: 1.5306
AUD/USD 0.6158 0.6305 Close: 0.6179
USD/CAD 1.2750 1.2952 Close: 1.2869
NZD/USD 0.5236 0.5357 Close: 0.5276
FXP got slaughtered. Should be a very good buy on Monday. I hope it drops to 60 with a good suprise from China.