And where is he now? In hiding? Come out and be a man and explain what went wrong. Here it was obvious. The mkt trades on fundamentals and always will. Tech analysis help you summarize the fundamentals without endless research.

NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, November 20, 2008

HIGHLIGHTS

US Treasury steps in to backstop money market fund
U.S. senators say automakers must apply to Congress for loans
US October leading indicators drop 0.8% – worse than expected
US weekly jobless claims jump 27,000 to 542,000 – worse than expected
Philadelphia FED business conditions for November drops to -39.3 – worst since 1980

COMMENTS
Imagine you are one of the few people left that didn’t buy a gun, sell all their stocks and move out West to live in a cave – in perhaps a warm place like Phoenix, Arizona. Should you sell everything now and join the cult of Armageddon? Well if you look at the tape today the answer is clearly yes. Equities went to new yearly lows – worst close in 11 years – with the S&P500 off 6.7% to 752 well below the 768 interday lows of October 10th and technically opening a chasm to 600. Fully 1/3 of the S&P500 now have a capitalization below $4 bn – the line of minimum market cap required to get in previously. The VIX followed closing at 81 – new all time highs – with the longer dated volatility closing higher. Fixed income saw 30Y bonds close below 3.5% – up 9 points – as duration ruled all decisions in fixed income. 2Y notes trade below 1% as the world now expects the FED to ease and stay on hold at a minimum. The QE crowd see bonds and other assets soon to be purchased by the FED. December 16 meeting now extended to another day to add in the myriad of issues facing the FED. Oil was another story today – off 10% – crashing below $50 and now reaching into territory where the ability for many producers to produce or shut down becomes an easy decision. We are likely to panic to $40 bbl but risk of supply shut down will lead to a nasty bounce back. CAD moved on this oil-sands issue and its clearly on target for 1.40 as the world fears a global collapse more than a global reflation. JPY closes at 94 – an important line that suggest we could retest 90 in short-order as growth there drives fears – witness the KRW, INR new USD highs last night. Expect Singapore GDP to matter in this game. As for EUR the break of 1.25 was a struggle – most see this as 1.20 or lower but the positioning looks even. This fear over faith is the heart of the old world view of the end of the world. Maybe the world of credit and leverage as we know is dead but the rest of the real economy lives. The hope for the day is that the pain felt in equities and commodities and bonds and FX is sufficient to spark the officials out of their inaction. To be fair some get the joke – the Swiss cut of 100 bps should be applauded. But the need for more from the FED and ECB is now clear. Risk of a tail event blow up into year-end has risen but so has the lingering effects of the credit freeze extending to the real economy. Will we be in a world without public debt for companies – only sovereigns and bank credit lines from the National banks? This means that the risk units dispersed over the last 5 years will soon be marked to zero – and the fire that started last August 2007 will be burnt out. What may make the most sense for those looking to move to that cave and sell what little they have left is to stop and think about the longer term – as the average of the US stock market over the last 50 years was up 8%. We were in 1990 to 2000 up 15% and most said this was unsustainable. We live that proof. So someday given the -49% move in S&P500 in 2009 we will be back up to 10% plus years. So selling out now begs the view on growth going forward – and it risks the view that our leaders won’t act to fight this until the real end. The world will wake up tomorrow with more programs, more actions and a new religion – perhaps we get a Phoenix out of the ashes.

CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2455 1.2595 Close: 1.2522
USD/JPY 93.70 96.25 Close: 94.74
EUR/JPY 116.82 121.20 Close: 118.63
GBP/USD 1.4741 1.4925 Close: 1.4817
EUR/GBP 0.8405 0.8499 Close: .8451
USD/CHF 1.2119 1.2244 Close: 1.2229
EUR/CHF 1.5183 1.5366 Close: 1.5313
AUD/USD 0.6075 0.6313 Close: 0.6127
USD/CAD 1.2550 1.2950 Close: 1.2843
NZD/USD 0.5190 0.5421 Close: 0.5269