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20
Nov
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5:14pm
The Pennant is now confirmed and broken, the bulls pushed the market to prior support/now resistance, but failed to break above. While a small bounce could be in the works due to a double bottom, this market is probably going to crash.
This is a 60 minute of the SPY, the red line represents bottom support of pennant.
3:19pm
New Low for the ES means pennant as been broken, and we’re heading towards 2002 lows, and towards a possible 650-675 target of the pennant. Expect some possible buyers at 768 (or under it).
1:57pm
Possible head and shoulders formation, as move higher is on light volume, if bears take this one, we’re in for a confirmed break of pennant formation. What are you guys thinking?
1:40pm
Volume is a little strong on the downside, but the 2 PM reversal time should pretty much decide this market’s fate for the next 2 weeks.
1:25pm
Some more consolidation.. could bring more buyers, but the 830-840 level is still far away.
12:37pm
I’m liking this rally as a bull, some resistance as prior support, maybe we can consolidate for another move higher.
11:30am
Very clear bull flag forming on the ES, could help us move higher.
11:16am
Market still getting that rally it needed to have yesterday. If the bulls fail today, then we will consider this market broken, however this is the fakeout rally that was missing in yesterday’s trading. If we can rally above 830, I can see more upside.
10:48am
First hit of 20 SMA 10 minute candle, serving as resistance.
10:43am
The market has finally found some buyers, the volume was strong on the first buy candle, but whenever the market needs to consolidate downwards to extend the move higher, it does so on strong volume, and that makes it really hard to read the charts. Keep in mind that the bulls have to do whatever they can to bring us back above 830 so that the pennant is not broken.
10:12am
Todays’ volume is incredibly light, but price-action trumps volume, and you have to respect the bears’ capability to push this market down. The absence of the bulls keeps me very nervous on this market. I am not playing this market either way, until we get some form of consolidation or pattern. We are also way too far away from the 20 SMA to be shorting.
12:00 am
Hey guys, today like yesterday is a crucial day for the markets, as the markets will decide if yesterday was a fakeout or a breakdown? We will have to track the price action and the volume today, but you have to give the bears the benefit of the doubt as they managed to push down on strong volume yesterday.
Megaphone:
:
Broken Down Pennant:
Good Job to those who were on the right side of the trade yesterday, I certainly wasn’t, but we do have some signs of a possible bounce (MACD bullish divergence), and of course support, if you believe in the megaphone formation. In any case, trade the market very cautiously on any rally. What are your thoughts?
ES 810 will be an excellent point to short if it gets there and it holds.
FWIW GS is actually getting some bids and is almost $4 off its lows.
im glad we held that support. even though im short the market. it makes me want to throw up. this is a world of hurt for many people…. including me most likely. especially if they change trading rules after this mess or during it.
Bullish cross on SPX 10m MACD, and RSI broke thru the trendline.
Yee ha
A virtual perfect test of 7773 on the Dow… the intraday low from Oct 10.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Cool.
There is a chance that was a big fakeout move or a push to get SPX to touch the 2002 lows (which it did). That might have been the point the bears wanted. We’ll see. I’m hoping we can get the VIX and ES back into their channels. Trying to be optimistic here.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:05 am
UP volume still worries me a bit.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:05 am
EXACTLY! Not much conviction there, is it?
Daily VWAP at 790. Approachin gmy key 807 level. I added on the VWAP and will add on the pullback as it pushes through/challenges this level.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:07 am
2 day VWAP: 820
38.2 retrace: 818
Don’t see us pushing through that so easily. I’d taking profits there since I had a nice 30 pts run from the VWAP. The 807 level is already posing a resistance.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Pullback on lighter vol vs the rally volume.
810, 816, 826 resistance points on ES.
Time for me to donate to Stocktock….I can’t believe I maxed my out today on shorts. I feel like I left the blackjack table and didn’t tip the dealer.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Yes – I may do the same. Good idea.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:09 am
I concur.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:14 am
agreed, and a little to Red Cross too. My heart hurts.
SPX hitting the 20ma on the 10m at 807.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:12 am
PIC:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/thursday-spx-rt
November 20th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Schwzer,
So do u expect to go higher it it pierces or breaks the 20ma on 10min. if so than how high do u expect up to 50ema.
I took a peek at a daily chart – can’t believe I’m saying this – today has already formed a tail looking like a potential bottomong candle. I can not believe I am going here. This is stupid, but again trying to be optimistic. Really hoping for the fakeout move I ws looking for yesterday. Remember, there are ZERO reasons to be bullish here (well except for PPT and opex).
November 20th, 2008 at 11:21 am
True. But since the mini rally of the bottom, volume on the sell side has not been as strong as the buying vol. I’m mildly bullish to the 818-820 level if we get through the 807 level. A break under the VWAP and we repeat and rinse again.
Bond market still rally ..no sign of back off
sp not going down much..disappoint…
VIX putting in second test of the top of the wedge at 76.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:19 am
PIC:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/thursday-vix-rt
807 also coincides with the 2nd STD of the daily VWAP, among a few others I’ve pointed out above.. I think a push through that will easily take us to 818-820 range. Takes a bit to get through it.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:29 am
This pullback looks good to me. Adding to at this retest of the VWAP. Will sell 50% at 807 and hopefully ride the rest till 818
November 20th, 2008 at 11:32 am
My stops at 785
November 20th, 2008 at 11:31 am
Does anyone know the symbol of S&P mini ES on Ameritrade? I called and still on hold for 15 min?
thank you
November 20th, 2008 at 11:54 am
Try ESZ8 or /ESZ8
Volume in first two hours today is lower than on each of the preceding 5 days during the first two hours. Is there any significance to that?
November 20th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Are you sure. I watch the SPY and it is 2x ave volume.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:38 am
I watch the ES volume. Really depends what works for you. ES volume is not reflecting the the same conviction as SPY.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:41 am
Am looking at the ES. Wonder why volume on the ES shows lesser than last 5 days and on the SPY shows greater than last 5 days?
November 20th, 2008 at 11:43 am
That was why I was tell Schweizer that I didn’t see the capitulation he was talking about.
Shanky, what do you think of UA? Seems like a obviousy short at this point…or maybe very soon. I recall you had an opinion on this stock.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Mohan had puts on it oo
November 20th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I want to know too, I know alot of people here has traded alot on UA, so seeking more experienced and successful thoughts.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Sorry for the late reply. I’m with Mohan and would doubt any chance of a rally. I love the stuff. My kids love it, but retailers aren’t going to sell crap for about a year. They will be strong coming out of the hole when we get there. One day, a long time from now, I will be long UA again.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Mohan and Shanky and others,
Is it good time to short UA now or end of today?
20ma on the 10m SPX is now 802. Bounced on try #1. Load up at the VWAP for another thrust.
50ma is 823.
(My MAs are all non AH)
Does anyone has a symbol of S&P mini ES on Ameritrade? I called and I am on hold for the last 30min
thanks
Sorry guys… I thought the bottom was in yesterday!!!
I should be more humble with my calls.
Anyways, the markets set new fresh lows yesterday so be careful going long.
JPM hit a 5+ year low yesterday, so I can only see a lot of downside to go with the financials.
Watch Oil and the Financials, I believe these 2 are the huge key for any possible turn around.
I just have this weird feeling that the Options Expiry is the only ray of light holding this market up.
can anyone comment on UA, it is up near 10%.
And trading strategy for that thanks.
And please help me to choose an ultra short index fund.
There is so many dont know which one to choose for someone cant watch the market all day but can watch it every 2 to 3 hours.
Also 3X etf, so far light vol is that one viable at all?
November 20th, 2008 at 11:48 am
With most of them at their all time highs, you shouldn’t be looking at any of them. We are closer to a bottom than a top imo.
But here ya go:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/31113-inverse-short-market-cap-etfs
Pick your poison based on market cap.
Idan nice to have you onboard. I stopped check at the top of the board once Craig stopped. Nice to see someone manning the board.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
dang..I type too fast that I keep making typos here and there. I can’t miss the market action.
3x ETF are scary!!!!! Just got done reviewing them….I do not have the b’s to touch them.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
I have not played one yet. Hell, i don’t even folloow them yet, but their time is rapidly approaching. those will be used for special plays on special days.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
FAZ is doing as it should. SKF up 18%, FAZ up 27%.
That 20ma on the 10m SPX is now 800.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Can you guys see this? It’s an SPX intraday pic that I posted as a “private” blog.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/spx-rt-update
I don’t want to clog the Social Blog space, but the Blog graphics are clearer than the upload-pic images.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
You are doing an excellent job today. I’m in a funk and had a client meeting.
ES Volume on this pullback is anemic.
November 20th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Same thing on the SPY. Someone is waiting to pull the plug? Lights out? Or spotlights!
November 20th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
783 is the 2 STD for the VWAP. I’ve moved my stop to that level.
794 seems to be a line in the sand for the lunch crowd.
is the bull flag rolling off?
big drop
I’m reaching again, but I’m voting fakeout. I’m not calling a rally just a big move that was negated. This will all look like a big tail in a few weeks. We’re still headed down, just not in a capitualted fashion I hope.
flare fired
November 20th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Have you determined anything based on these gr?
November 20th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
usually mark an inflection point.
VIX needs to end the day below 76 to get back in channel/wedge.
gr…I see the flare….but can a bother you for a quick reply as to what that does/could mean?
November 20th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
see the answer in #80.
Like yesterday, put/call ratio is way too bearish for me to add more shorts…waiting for some kind of bounce to get that ratio back down to around 1.
http://www.cboe.com/Data/IntraDayVol.aspx
On the big bond rally…either the Fed is pushing the yield down to minimize the deficit on the new auction or money managers are really really scare and looking for a place to hide.
The trend is down, if you make a mistake going bearish, given enough time, you’ll recover in a few weeks or months. DO NOT use leverage in this market is my humble suggestion.
OK – we are thru the 20ma at 794 FINALLY !!! (10m)
Next stop, 817 at the 50ma. (Yeah right)
November 20th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
We are about to break the RSI downtrend line, then it should run.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/spx-today
November 20th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Game on.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
volume not up yet
November 20th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Over the daily VWAP at 796. I looking to 807 first.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
nice call, bravo.
Looking back at ES a few months, it seems that flares signal a turn around point, but I see that they are not alway strong ones. Can anyone confirm that is the what they signal?
what a fakeout
XLF is blasting off. Good sign.
$VIX under 76. Shanky ought to be happy, perhaps.
As mentioned before, I’m closing 50% of my calls at 807. Not being greedy in this fickle market. 818-820 next target.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
2 day VWAP is at 817
new highs on spy with moderate volume i’m long
Glad I loaded up at that 777 pause point as I mentioned.
Looking smart at the moment!
10m charts not oversold so this will be a good run.
We hit the 50ma! Holy Cow!
November 20th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Schweizer,
After your 10:13 post, I closed all shorts and went long. I was willing to risk some downside loss to the 768 range, and set a stop a little below. After it started running, I added more and have a very significant long position…making truckloads FINALLY!
Thank you for your call to get in early. You da man!
November 20th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Please send a 10% royalty check to …….
Oh make that a 50% check.
maybe a visit up to the trendline sine the election i have it around 85 on spy
New pic. Notice the hit of the 50ma and the trendlines.
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/spx-2
November 20th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
See how the RSI trendline break was the trigger?
If QID hits 86..I’m back in.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Tom, QID low just hit 86.34 and seems to be good entry point. However, i see the daily 10ema at 83 and 20ema at 76.
What did you base the 86 entry in on. Please explain. Thanks.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
I’m backing it off to 82. I am drawing a support line from Nov 10 low. That lands around 78 but I don’t think it will go that low and if it does, I will buy more. One thing for sure, don’t take advice from me.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Can’t talk you out of it? Neg divergences on all time scales ya know.
Made it through 1 day VWAP . If we break 827-828 next target. 50% retrace as well as 2 day VWAP area.
November 20th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
While a huge rally is always a possibility. I’ll be 100% cash when we hit that 50% retrace level.
Schweizer…more please..!
November 20th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
More what?
November 20th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
sorry….misfire…trying to clearly understand your “Neg divergences on all times scales” comment.
November 20th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Tom, it is critical that you understand divergences. You will lose a lot of money just using price. QID has negative divergences on the 10m, 60m, and daily time scales. Meaning the indicators are flashing “sell” while price and tredlines might be flashing “buy.”
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/divergence.asp
Went long on F at 1.54…I am gambling
Volume is impressive on this turnaround. (When I started composing this note, DOW was up 165, now it is up only 40)
Market is rallying on Senators giving a handout for the big 3. More time for the big-3 before they come for more money again.
Technically speaking, once a key level is breached – it is difficult to rally past it. Looks like 830-840 is the ceiling for this move up. But it could also turn on a dime. T-bonds are off their highs but yields are still crashing, flight to safety continues.
No, thanks for the rally. I will stay short.
Possible that “impressive” bounce was bases on the pseudo bailout of automakers?
This is the first time ever I have heard the concept of a “Fakeout” move….
The support level we had around 820-830 is gone, at least for now.
We are going down on all major US indices, that’s the bottom line !
As the TA theory suggest, that prior support level may now play out as a resistance for upward moves !!
November 20th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
I think it is falling back to test support at the 10m 20ma which is now turning up. There is also an uptrend support line now. Totally normal. The RSI trendline is also being backtested.
Hourly charts suggest this is for real, for now, to work off the divergences if nothing else. The VIX is testing it’s intraday RSI support line (posted earlier) but the VIX hourly suggests it’s gonna head down.
The day is young.