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20
Nov
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5:14pm
The Pennant is now confirmed and broken, the bulls pushed the market to prior support/now resistance, but failed to break above. While a small bounce could be in the works due to a double bottom, this market is probably going to crash.
This is a 60 minute of the SPY, the red line represents bottom support of pennant.
3:19pm
New Low for the ES means pennant as been broken, and we’re heading towards 2002 lows, and towards a possible 650-675 target of the pennant. Expect some possible buyers at 768 (or under it).
1:57pm
Possible head and shoulders formation, as move higher is on light volume, if bears take this one, we’re in for a confirmed break of pennant formation. What are you guys thinking?
1:40pm
Volume is a little strong on the downside, but the 2 PM reversal time should pretty much decide this market’s fate for the next 2 weeks.
1:25pm
Some more consolidation.. could bring more buyers, but the 830-840 level is still far away.
12:37pm
I’m liking this rally as a bull, some resistance as prior support, maybe we can consolidate for another move higher.
11:30am
Very clear bull flag forming on the ES, could help us move higher.
11:16am
Market still getting that rally it needed to have yesterday. If the bulls fail today, then we will consider this market broken, however this is the fakeout rally that was missing in yesterday’s trading. If we can rally above 830, I can see more upside.
10:48am
First hit of 20 SMA 10 minute candle, serving as resistance.
10:43am
The market has finally found some buyers, the volume was strong on the first buy candle, but whenever the market needs to consolidate downwards to extend the move higher, it does so on strong volume, and that makes it really hard to read the charts. Keep in mind that the bulls have to do whatever they can to bring us back above 830 so that the pennant is not broken.
10:12am
Todays’ volume is incredibly light, but price-action trumps volume, and you have to respect the bears’ capability to push this market down. The absence of the bulls keeps me very nervous on this market. I am not playing this market either way, until we get some form of consolidation or pattern. We are also way too far away from the 20 SMA to be shorting.
12:00 am
Hey guys, today like yesterday is a crucial day for the markets, as the markets will decide if yesterday was a fakeout or a breakdown? We will have to track the price action and the volume today, but you have to give the bears the benefit of the doubt as they managed to push down on strong volume yesterday.
Megaphone:
:
Broken Down Pennant:
Good Job to those who were on the right side of the trade yesterday, I certainly wasn’t, but we do have some signs of a possible bounce (MACD bullish divergence), and of course support, if you believe in the megaphone formation. In any case, trade the market very cautiously on any rally. What are your thoughts?
URE back under 4!
new low with less push back. into no man’s land now.
We are incredible far from the 200ma on the 10m. It’s up at 848.
Get ready for a reversal. All short coverers and LONGs are welcome.
From Idian above –
3:19pm
New Low for the ES means pennant as been broken, and we’re heading towards 2002 lows, and towards a possible 650-675 target of the pennant. Expect some possible buyers at 768 (or under it).
That’s just great news isn’t it. Wonder if Tony C’s viewership drops significantly. CRAIG IS THE MAN!
November 20th, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Tony C has lost some credibility hasn’t he? Originally he was calling for a crash, then he switched to calling for a massive rally. He should have just gone with his first thought of a crash. He would have been correct if he had done so.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Go look at the blog post history and see my post with his returns from his website. You would think it would be something special. well, it isn’t. He has underperformed SPX since like 97. They have not posted returns on the site since 2005 which is very supicious. I was very kind in the post.
DRYS is a under $4..my..my
Holy moly….left QID on the table while in a meeting….unloading now.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
wow good for you!
November 20th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Tom, i got out little too early, but profits are profits and this makret could turn at any time or when it does it’ll be a huge rally IMO.
Let me know if you play QLD and what would be a good entry or do you think we just buy QID tomorrow on pull back.
Well I took a haircut on my TNA position from yesterday. I’m out untill brokers jump out the windows of highrises. Then I’ll go long again.
penetrated the dot com bust. wtg, bears.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Penetrated – hugh hugh – he said penetrated – hugh hugh.
H&S on the VIX 1m. 8pts. I hope I get this one right. Remember I called one yesterday at this time that failed pretty miserably. It would be the first bearish H&S to fill this century it seems. Might be setting up for the opex programmed trading. Remember – bull patterns failing at 90% rate and I can’t call one of these things.
Sell programs in action…
November 20th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
755 is the H&S target.
Now paint a HAMMER (please).
GOD these Bears are greedy.
I would not be short overnight. I think we are looking at a monster rally tomorrow…..everything is way oversold…..one more rally, then down down down
I’m going to by some AITC now…that company will be printing money in a depression
November 20th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
whoops…that was AIPC…almost bought the wrong stock!
VIX within 30bps.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!VIX new high!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
for today that is – second highest level EVER. TYVM.
If we were gonna rally I think it would have happened. Still got 15 minutes.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I lied – got to get to 89.53 for the #2 spot. Sorry, kinda got lost in all the excitement.
Now will someone please tell me why i did not go short again earlier today or atleast when I saw the VIX set up and hour ago? GEEEEZ.
I’ve been on HJD since two days ago, thank god (Cdn equivalent of EEV), but this is sad to watch. Really really sad.
Get ready to get long soon. Target is 700-720.
The ride back up is going to be ridiculous. I’m calling over 1050 on the S&P over the next few months.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I hear you. Man at this point nothing would suprise me S+P 500 or 1000.
Pete
November 20th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
755 is the H&S target for today.
Now paint a HAMMER (please).
GOD these Bears are greedy.
VIX has some red – first in nearly 40min. Just maybe…..
I’m in for GOOG…taking a small stab on the long side..
C just fell off the cliff
November 20th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
C just bounced.
VIX needs to get to 81.26 – oh so close. Riding a trendline up acting as support. I’m not doing anything today. If anything we’ll open a lot lower in the AM – world markets will not like this at all. Might start capitulation.
On second thought I may swing a small short. I’ll let you know.
The levees have broken!
Who’s staying short overnight?
November 20th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Im not, but Im getting short again tomorrow thats for sure.
I would hold overnight if it wasnt options ex…although something tells me we might not even rally for options ex.
November 20th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Aparently everyone!
I’m shocked there was so little short covering in the last hour after the retest.
Perhaps Friday, he pondered.
CAPITULATION!!!
November 20th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Nope – that happens overnight and in the AM.
I just swung a small EEV play.
VIX taking out resistance.
Wow, That was increadable.
C with a small green worm.
I’m out because the world leaders will need to do something tonight to avoid delay distruction tomorrow. That is a surprise that I don’t want to be caught short on.
OMG we put a tail thru the almighty blue channel.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
What does that mean?
Congratulations Shanky you called a near perfect day. Bou you must have been really in the zone.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Why TYVM. I went to the hoop with confidence.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Aren’t you in the wheelchair league? lol
November 20th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
My second post today
Shanky “Mr. LONG (is gone)” commented:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:48 am
The almighty blue channel at the close today is at ES 756.
[Reply]
Sorry I feel like beating my chest a little.
i need craig…come back homey
Volume today is as high as it was last Thu when it reversed.
Looks like everything shorts touched was golden for about 2 weeks since the election. This is about time shorts will be humbled – I won’t be surprised if this thing turns around tomorrow for a 70-90 S&P points (right to 835 level)
I tried to close some put positions at the close. Only got some executions. Hopefully I will have a small window in the morning to close puts.
The loss of the uptrend line today, and the 20ma, and the RSI was a key signal to head to the sidelines:
http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/the-moment
November 20th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Those are good indicators and worked well. To me I read the VIX like a ouija board and it gave me the clues I needed.
Kenny’s Charts has the intraday 776 mark as the end of Wave 3 5 (3) and the 820 intraday mark as the end of Wave 4 5 (3), and the 752 close as the near end of Wave 5 5 (3). If this is so, then look for a move up tomorrow for the beginning of Wave 1 of (4).
November 20th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
A lower open tomorrow would be likely under such a scenario.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Correction: ONE of Kenny’s charts shows 752 close as 5 5 (3) and another one shows it as 3 5 (3). Big difference!
I’m took my small long Dec calls in GOOG for tomorrow. A small bounce is inevitable for tomorrow. I expected the undercut of 2002 lows. Long term, I still want to be short. But near term, I think the downside is limited..or not worth the risk. IMO
November 20th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Don’t you think Goog PE is too high and probably false? Seems cheap but it sure seems like we are heading toward an industry PE of 10.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
No doubt P/E is high. I was just talking about this with my buddy a few mins back!
I’m not going long. Just a very short term trade 1-2 days. If the sky falls out, I’ll live.
Mohan – you are the man – your ideas have played out very well in the last 2 weeks. Appreciate your contributions.
Thanks.
Good bye wave 3. We hardly had time to know you.
I have to believe that the bucks were sitting on the sidelines in the last hours hoping it would tank tank tank. No buyers because it will be an all-nighter studying how to through perfect darts in the morning. So much is oversold that it will take a many hours to see which are the most. I think the bucks did not want to guess in the last hour but they will be out in force in the morning. I am a total permabear….so I am bias in my conjecture for a mega rally in the AM and first half of the day. Then I will load up on TWM and QID again. I am curious who might agree or disagree and why?
Let the gold rush begin.
Mohan was very correct watching the bond action.
Should have listened to him.
Mohan, you need to post more often.
Like I said in my first post of the day –
While we do miss Craig terribly the board has a wad of remaining talent. We each have our own strengths. I believe we all work well together. We form a exceptional discusstion group and I would say a high majority of the time we make the correct decisions. In this market that is saying something.
As a team we’re smoking the experts.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
It is obvious that Tony C is not reading our board – will someone send him a link?
Fiirst time with you folks. You all are very good. I will be here to learn going forward.
Thanks for all the knowledge.
Tony C just proved that no one is an expert on this market.
If this market goes down further just think of the effect on shoppers especially around Thanksgivng and day after, it is going to make things worse.
All,
Please…..
Stop picking on Tony C. He expected one extra turn in the market. If you have a stop-loss mechanism in place, you wouldn’t have burned. When in doubt, go with the primary trend. He has been right-on with his calls on the primary trend. Missing one turn is no big deal.
His analysis provided additional boost to my own trading.
Again, I don’t agree with many on this board. I happen to think Tony C’s calls have been outstanding.
November 20th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
(corrected) All,
Please…..
Stop picking on Tony C. So what if he expected one extra turn in the market, that didn’t materialize? If you have a stop-loss mechanism in place, you wouldn’t have burned. When in doubt, go with the primary trend. He has been right-on with his calls on the primary trend. Missing one turn is no big deal.
His analysis provided additional boost to my own trading.
Again, I don’t agree with many on this board. I happen to think Tony C’s calls have been outstanding.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Agreed, the Budweiser S&P the other day, and Big 3 announcement today…partially played into this strange week.
November 20th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Yeah, I just ran into Tony C. He was working as the greeter at Wal-mart. I have no problem with a bad call, everyone makes them. I didn’t like the attitude that he had somehow solved a complex chart pattern. His “100% likelihood of S&P 920″ call was pompous to say the least.
And where is he now? In hiding? Come out and be a man and explain what went wrong. Here it was obvious. The mkt trades on fundamentals and always will. Tech analysis help you summarize the fundamentals without endless research.
So what happens tommorrow? I bought a ton of UYG at 3:59 today. Was that a big mistake?
November 20th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I have a feeling that it will be a big winner for you. No analysis. Just a hunch.
November 20th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
you may feel some initial pain, but you may win. I’m in URE from yesterday, but I also went long EEV on a hunch at the close. Good luck.
November 20th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
I heard on CNBC today there was oddly massive (like 28,000) December calls on UYG. Try to check verify that…I could have heard it wrong.
November 20th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
You heard it correctly, just read it a min ago on a fast money recap
November 20th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
$4 calls to be specific
About the request for me to post more often. I only post when I have a goofy thing or something I feel is important to say.
Mohan,
What`site do you use to monitor bonds & what was the last action money still going in?
Thanks
November 20th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
StockCharts, Bloomberg.
November 20th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
In my opinion, the bond action this week was all about the fact that High quality corporate bonds will generate positive returns even if corporate defaults reach Great Depression levels. They are priced for a disaster, and the government is directly supporting a good portion of the high quality corporate bond universe through capital injections.
Comments from GS.
NY ROUNDUP – Thursday, November 20, 2008
HIGHLIGHTS
US Treasury steps in to backstop money market fund
U.S. senators say automakers must apply to Congress for loans
US October leading indicators drop 0.8% – worse than expected
US weekly jobless claims jump 27,000 to 542,000 – worse than expected
Philadelphia FED business conditions for November drops to -39.3 – worst since 1980
COMMENTS
Imagine you are one of the few people left that didn’t buy a gun, sell all their stocks and move out West to live in a cave – in perhaps a warm place like Phoenix, Arizona. Should you sell everything now and join the cult of Armageddon? Well if you look at the tape today the answer is clearly yes. Equities went to new yearly lows – worst close in 11 years – with the S&P500 off 6.7% to 752 well below the 768 interday lows of October 10th and technically opening a chasm to 600. Fully 1/3 of the S&P500 now have a capitalization below $4 bn – the line of minimum market cap required to get in previously. The VIX followed closing at 81 – new all time highs – with the longer dated volatility closing higher. Fixed income saw 30Y bonds close below 3.5% – up 9 points – as duration ruled all decisions in fixed income. 2Y notes trade below 1% as the world now expects the FED to ease and stay on hold at a minimum. The QE crowd see bonds and other assets soon to be purchased by the FED. December 16 meeting now extended to another day to add in the myriad of issues facing the FED. Oil was another story today – off 10% – crashing below $50 and now reaching into territory where the ability for many producers to produce or shut down becomes an easy decision. We are likely to panic to $40 bbl but risk of supply shut down will lead to a nasty bounce back. CAD moved on this oil-sands issue and its clearly on target for 1.40 as the world fears a global collapse more than a global reflation. JPY closes at 94 – an important line that suggest we could retest 90 in short-order as growth there drives fears – witness the KRW, INR new USD highs last night. Expect Singapore GDP to matter in this game. As for EUR the break of 1.25 was a struggle – most see this as 1.20 or lower but the positioning looks even. This fear over faith is the heart of the old world view of the end of the world. Maybe the world of credit and leverage as we know is dead but the rest of the real economy lives. The hope for the day is that the pain felt in equities and commodities and bonds and FX is sufficient to spark the officials out of their inaction. To be fair some get the joke – the Swiss cut of 100 bps should be applauded. But the need for more from the FED and ECB is now clear. Risk of a tail event blow up into year-end has risen but so has the lingering effects of the credit freeze extending to the real economy. Will we be in a world without public debt for companies – only sovereigns and bank credit lines from the National banks? This means that the risk units dispersed over the last 5 years will soon be marked to zero – and the fire that started last August 2007 will be burnt out. What may make the most sense for those looking to move to that cave and sell what little they have left is to stop and think about the longer term – as the average of the US stock market over the last 50 years was up 8%. We were in 1990 to 2000 up 15% and most said this was unsustainable. We live that proof. So someday given the -49% move in S&P500 in 2009 we will be back up to 10% plus years. So selling out now begs the view on growth going forward – and it risks the view that our leaders won’t act to fight this until the real end. The world will wake up tomorrow with more programs, more actions and a new religion – perhaps we get a Phoenix out of the ashes.
CURRENCIES
Cross Low High
EUR/USD 1.2455 1.2595 Close: 1.2522
USD/JPY 93.70 96.25 Close: 94.74
EUR/JPY 116.82 121.20 Close: 118.63
GBP/USD 1.4741 1.4925 Close: 1.4817
EUR/GBP 0.8405 0.8499 Close: .8451
USD/CHF 1.2119 1.2244 Close: 1.2229
EUR/CHF 1.5183 1.5366 Close: 1.5313
AUD/USD 0.6075 0.6313 Close: 0.6127
USD/CAD 1.2550 1.2950 Close: 1.2843
NZD/USD 0.5190 0.5421 Close: 0.5269
General Electric and the Consumer Product Safety Commission have announced a voluntary recall of nearly 244,000 GE, GE Profile, Monogram and Kenmore branded wall ovens. The units pose a risk of fire or burns during the