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19
Nov
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4:30am BoE Minutes
8:30am Earnings Before the Open: BJ, EV, LDK, MENT, ROST, TSL, TWB.
8:30am Oct CPI (last m/m 0.0%, y/y 4.9%; ex food & energy last m/m 0.1%, y/y 2.5%)
8:30am Oct Housing Starts (last 817K), Oct Building Permits (last 805K)
9:00am Fed’s Kohn speaks on asset prices at conference.
10:35am Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
1:30pm Fed’s Lacker speaks on the subprime crisis at conference.
2:00pm FOMC Minutes
4:00pm Earnings After the Close: CYBX, DBRN, EGLT, GYMB, HOTT, INTU, LTD, LDG, MW, PETM, PLNR, SMTC, TK, WGOV.
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i still see bear…this next drop could be huge…i might short quickly and see how low it rides…
November 19th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
Bottom of the intra-day channel is at 817.50. If it confirms below on high volume I’m in for the plunge.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Woo, what are you looking at that confirms the market not bottom yet and going further down.
I think you’re right it may go down…the market just doesn’t feel right.
Another big day for T-Bonds. Closing yields.
$FVX (5-year) 2.091, down 4.74%
$TNX (10-year) 3.391, down 4.07%
$TYX (30-year) 3.972, down 4.15%
I’m so tired of making and losing the same money over and over again during each trading day. PICK A DIRECTION ALREADY!
finacials fell over the edge by themselves it seems.
OK – final hour. Let the games begin.
We’re safetly over the 20ma (10m) after 3 attempts. BULLISH.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Agreed, the break of the top of the intraday channel is confirmed. Let’s see how it holds up.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Problem is, NO VOLUME!
Yes! Vix breaking support.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Yup. Should start ripping any second now, he said softly to himself.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
I’m out of longs. Feels toppy here.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Pete, just like me to come to the party late and for you to leave early.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
You have to be quick in this game. If it doesn’t feel right, then cut. Surge has the right level 840. If it can’t get above there, no reason to be long.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Back inside the channel – there’s no conviction yet, no volume yet. We will know it when we see it.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Yet another test!
836 on the ES holding after 4 tests, VWAP at 839
If we lose ES 826 and i get stopped out I still ahd a good time.
Incredible 3-day rally in bonds
JP Morgan close to new yearly lows
SKF new all time high
Once again – there is more to this than what we can see.
I think the game is over.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I agree. Bank index is broken.
i’m still bear…i see possible bear penants. i think this is the top of wave 4, and it’s going to wave 5 down this next turn…
The PPT need to push up XOM, PG + MSFT if we’re to recover.
yet another approach.
Still looking for a break of the intraday channel at 817 before going short. Seen this market do some crazy things at the end of the day! If we break 817 it could be a quick trip down to 770.
resistance is visibly weakened comparing to the last time.
look at C my god
November 19th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Bye, bye bonus, Tony C.
Let’s talk targets for this assuming it’s wave 5 down. For those of you with a decent knowledge of EW, what do you think? 780?
Kenny’s charts say breach of 818.69 confirms we’re in 3 5 (3). SPX hit 820.52 – he’s cutting it close.
Stopped out of SSO. I’m keeping the URE.
another flare
November 19th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
what is this flare and how do you see it or where??? TIA
November 19th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
on SPY, candle with extra long tails.
Is ES setting up a massive H&S?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
looks like it to me.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
mini bear penant? more dropping to come?
Looks like 827 could be forming a resistance…on a 1 min ES
Where’s TONY C and his 100% guarenteed 430?????
November 19th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Correction: 930
November 19th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
I think we have better traders here than Tony C.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Yep, I don’t think he’ll show his face today after the market close.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Always possibility but never certainty in trading…
Still 2 days left on OpEx…let’s give him a chance.
I think this is the 5th wave down and we are in wave 3 of that 5th down movement (819 or lower at close- perhaps with a AM drop tomorrow at first and the rebound.). Soon a bounce (4th wave), which will be a nice, multi-day deal over a period of time back to 950 or higher. Then, wave 5 down for the new lows… I guess around the next super moon of 12 Dec… Anyway, just a 40,000 foot view, from my perch.
I think Tony C better dump his idea of a rogue rally quickly.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I dunno man. Watching the action here and I can’t help it , I’m not overly worried for some reason. Maybe I’m just numb to being on teh wrong side of the trade now but a big down down day will be screamed from the mountain tops as the bottom and we’ll explode tomorrow.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
I like the idea in theory, but there are no buyers in the market. not enough to get us back up over 866 for sure. It will take a miracle and then some.
third time down should be the charm…
Citi is leading the market by a few minutes.
you can see the flag pole down and the penant, just depends on how big this next dip is going to be…
Hey folks, still out of the market, since yesterday, except for my long term holds and a fun swing term MON:MOS pair .
Am too scared to play either ways, no buy signals on any of my indicators as yet. Sell signals are persisting. Hopefully the Nov 20, fib date will bring something.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Mav,
Can you share our buy & Sell signals techniques. Thanks.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
you would think that after new lows, we’d see more support for a bounce. no volume. i wish i had gotten in when it wasn’t hitting 840 as planned, but was too afraid to pull the trigger. might go down to 811-813 range before day end.
anyone thinking of buys/calls into tomorrow?
November 19th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
There are a bunch of them. It is a programmatic software, I cannot give you the recipe but the sell signals is from a volume trend tool. I have hinted about this before, in the comments. The idea is to analyze volume on different timescales.
Simply put, if it sees lots of green candles on a 1m, as opposed to red – it gives a buy. Similarly for 5m, 10m, hourly, daily etc.
My indicator had sell on them all the way upto 30m, triggered sometime 2 days. The 30m did not turn green even on the late rally yesterday. So, I knew that rally was not sustainable or needed follow through.
The other tools are similar, like volume you can do similar with momentum.
1m MACD, 5m MACD etc.
I think you get the point. Even these gave me sell upto the 30m. So no followthrough.
Let’s go down the hole…catch it for ride up tomorrow.
All time highs/lows of the Proshares ETFs and still NO VOLUME in this market! This is insanity…
$VIS still parked at 73. Hmmm
November 19th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
$VIX I mean.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
should it be increasing as we squeal down?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
yup. ugly ass pattern on the VIX intraday the last 30 min.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Why yes it WAS parked there.
15 mins to go…what’s it going to be? 800 on the ES? Bulls will definitely step in at that point. They can’t lose the coveted 800 mark…
Big volume in about 10 min. could get ugly. took out my 816 support. tying to break intraday channel. 809 may be next stop. 800 next. the almighty blue channel is near 772.
get buckled up. we’re getting ready to go for a ride.
Gann’s next support at 811-813.
approaching 2nd support line
This is roughly the area where Tony C’s expanding triangle support is.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Yeah this is where Craig’s support is as well on the pennant
wow- what a washout! What a great call by Tony C.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
When did Tony C call this washout, thought he was thinking rally?
November 19th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
You make calls on both outcomes so you still look like the half-genius.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
I was being sarcastic. It was a horrible call.
Dow close at 7999 or 8001? Which side of the psychological line?
November 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
under and a sell off overnight and in the AM. the worlds markets will not like this. I should be swinging a short but I’m not.
looks there is no time left for bulls to stage a meaningful fight.
November 19th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Yeah but at the same time the market seems to be running out of sellers.
Channel broke but fear of truncated Wave 5 of (3) reversal made me refuse to pull the trigger to go short. Remembered bmf’s warnings about playing Wave 5’s – they can be nasty. Oh well, powder is dry. Let’s get this Wave (3) over with finally!
the top of my super rising wedge on the VIX is at 76. That will be it for today. That does not mean it is a buy point.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
agreed, that was a crazy day. better to trade on a day we’re all more sure about the market.
despite potential trendline support, there are no divergences on the daily/weekly charts. probably a larger crash coming within next session.
oil and china look like good shorts for the near-term
McHugh says there is a “phi mate turn date” tomorrow (also one on Dec. 4). Usually (about 80% of the time), phi mate turn dates bring about a reversal that lasts for a few weeks. So, maybe tomorrow starts a huge rally as we get into Wave 1 of (4). On the other hand, maybe tomorrow is a continuation, and we plunge to the depths of utter capitulation! Ha!
shorts are not covering!
November 19th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Yes. No short covering and no opt-x rally.
A good lesson !!!!
(But there is always Thursday).:-)
Nice jobs everyone. Time to catch your breaths and take another stab tomorrow. Don’t bother with Tony C. Watch the market and deal with the basics. I think you’d be better off.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Well said. I think I paid too much attention to what others were to say instead of listening to myself.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
It was fun. Made a ton.
Thanks for a great day. Can’t wait to play tomorrow.
Good nuff for me I took a bath on my TNA but I’m holding it overnight. I think there is a good chance of a bounce tomorrow and then everyone piling in thinking the bottom has been double test and we are all good to go.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
boy do I hope your call is correct.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Had I stuck to my original plan to only buy after a washout like this I still woudl have bought TNA just at the end of the day. It’s 10% down from where I got in buying early.
If we are going to continue down tomorrow I expect to see the premarket up a bit and I’ll be able to exit for a slightly less of a loss. If we are going to rally I expect to see us open the market a bit down.
If we gap up big I set stops and see what happens. If we limit down then I will set a stop below that point and see if market does what it did last time it went limit down.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
I agree, today was a good day for Wave 5 of (3) to end (if it did). Besides, with op ex looming, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise (even in this bearish environment) to see the market bounce tomorrow.
Wow! 368 responses today! StockTock record
I should have followed the Stocktock motto: don’t trust opinions,trust the charts. We’re now only 38 points from the 2002 intraday lows of 768+775. I went from being a permabear to “expecting” a rally.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
BT310,
Sorry to hear that. With all due respect, there are/were differing opinions on this board. Often, two takes in the same post.
I too felt strongly that a rally is due this week. I changed my mind by middle of the day yesterday. Being flexible with your views is important. Especially in these fast changing markets.
I have to say, I too expected a rally late in the day but the charts NEVER suggested that, so a good lesson – WATCH THE CHARTS AND TRADE THE CHARTS.
I did close my EEV short but I did leave some $ on the table. I will have to review that.
Thanks all.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Again, today is the day where opinion mattered more than the charts. I did not look at the charts. All I looked at is bonds and Banking stocks. I did not sway in my opinion a single bit.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Cool. I need to watch the bonds in parallel to I guess. Thanks.
November 19th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
SChweizer, that’s why i was aksing about your 10min chart trading techniques. Please take time and share that today if possible by posting on stocksocial page. ALso this will give platform for others to chime in and share their ideas for trading techniques.
I believe it’s always good to see all sides of things.